Russia vs. Russia Civil War Begins

Russian Units Form to Drive Putin’s Forces From Ukraine

The Russian men fighting against Putin inside Ukraine conceal their identities in order to minimize the danger to family members back in Russia. And they are only a small part of the Russian men who are fleeing Russia to avoid fighting for Putin, a madman who is committing genocide against civilians.

…we’re preparing military elements with Russians right now in Ukraine, which are fighting alongside the Ukrainian army on the frontlines…they’re ready to go to Russia at the decisive moment.”

The Aim is to Overthrow Putin

Putin’s forces inside Ukraine are running out of everything. And thanks to Putin’s foolish decision to conduct a genocidal war against the peaceful neighboring country of Ukraine, Russia itself is running out of people even faster than it was before the war.

Putin has lost most of his professional troops in the fighting, and now feels that he must conduct a war against civilian targets in an attempt to turn Ukraine into a wasteland in which no one would want to live. As Russian troops are being driven back from Kherson, Putin is preparing to demolish the Kherson hydroelectric dam using mines, to inundate parts of Kherson downstream from the dam to delay the Ukrainian advance.

Russian Campaign Assessment Summary 20 Oct 2022:

  • Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).
  • Russian forces are likely setting conditions to remove military and occupation elements from the west bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of imminent Ukrainian advances.
  • The White House confirmed on October 20 that Iranian military personnel are in Russian-occupied Crimea, Ukraine to assist Russian forces in conducting drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure.
  • Iran is providing military support to Russian forces in Ukraine despite new international sanctions likely in part because Iranian leaders believe that they need Moscow’s help to upend the US-led global order.
  • Russian sources continued to claim that Russian forces are consolidating limited regained positions in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 20 despite Ukrainian reports that Ukraine has liberated all but 1.8% of Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian troops have advanced in northern Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign.
  • Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast but Russian sources contradicted their own claims on control of Bakhmut. Russian forces are likely continuing to falsify claims of advances in the Bakhmut area to portray themselves as making gains in at least one sector amid continuing losses in northeast and southern Ukraine.
  • Russian regional governments and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continue to blame each other for military administrative failures.

Source of Campaign Assessment

Russia has lost almost 70,000 dead in Ukraine, with roughly 3X that amount wounded, captured, deserted, mutinied, or otherwise lost to combat. Putin is running out of viable responses to Russian losses on the battlefield, and is finding it difficult to satisfy the different groups representing growing schisms inside of Russia.

The Russians who have decided to fight to overthrown Putin belong to a growing category of the “extreme disaffected” Russians who see no other way to save Russia than to attempt to remove the madman from control of the country.

From the first months of the war, Russian soldiers on the front lines have expressed their anger at their commanders — including Putin. They have been threatening to march back to Moscow and express their anger to Putin in the most violent manner. What they have lacked until now is any organizing principle that would allow them to work together effectively.

Russia could have been successful as an ordinary country, using its massive natural resources and the human resources it possesses. All Russia needed to do was to move to a less corrupt and criminal style of government, featuring greater property rights and rule of law. But the Russian people have no experience with a normal, non-mystical way of looking at Russia. Russian leadership takes advantage of this childlike nature of the Russian people in order to hold them in a position of quasi-serfdom, a position that the Russian people have been in for many centuries.

The history of Russia is a tragic one, and has left the Russian people dependent upon drugs, alcohol, and languishing in near perpetual hopelessness. Wishful thinking and magical thinking seem to be the only escape hatches — other than emigration.

Putin is now driving events in Russia to their inevitable conclusion, that is, to a violent and tragic end point.

A demographic reckoning has arrived for Russia, its economy starved of young employees and now at risk of stagnation or worse long after the war is over. Bloomberg Economics now estimates Russia’s potential growth rate at 0.5%, down two percentage points from before the war — with demographics accounting for about a quarter of the downgrade.

Unfavorable demographics in the areas of Ukraine that Putin plans to annex is only likely to add to the challenges Russia faces from a growing population burden, Renaissance Capital economists said in a report this month.

While demographic traumas usually play out over decades, the fallout of the invasion is making the worst scenarios more likely — and much sooner than expected.

The End of Russia
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