Since 2014, Crimea has seemed to be in the firm possession of Russia, with no possibility that Ukraine would ever take Crimea back. Now everything has changed, with the collapse of Russian forces north, east, and south.
In the video below, Peter Zeihan explains how Russia is losing all supply routes to Crimea. What this means is that Russia is also losing all escape routes from Crimea, paving the way to a massive humanitarian tragedy for Russia. Until now, Russia had been forcing Ukrainian civilians to pay the humanitarian cost of the war, with hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian civilians killed and enslaved by Russia so far. Now the pendulum may be starting to swing.
After months of insisting that Russia is in ultimate control of the war, Peter Zeihan is now warning Putin that he should withdraw all troops from Crimea and from south Ukraine before Russia suffers irrevocable losses. More in the video below:
Back in Russia, the state media propaganda outlets are losing control of the narrative, as more and more Russians discover the ways they can bypass the state media monopoly to find out what is actually happening just a few hundred miles away. Unrest is percolating through the layers of Russian society in very interesting ways, and in the middle of an ongoing demographic crisis the “nation” of Russia is beginning to evolve much more quickly.
The things that Russians will say on camera are not necessarily the same things they will say privately, to friends and family. They tend to be cautious as a rule. That is certainly wise, considering the political regimes they have had to live under for the past several hundred years.
Russian forces continue to bombard civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, earning rebukes from around the world — even from communist China.
All of Russia’s neighbors hold long-standing serious grudges against Russia, and the time will soon come for them to collect on the multitude of debts that Russia owes.
The recent deadly missile explosion inside Poland, for example, came as a result of Russian bombardment of civilian targets in western Ukraine. The Russian attack triggered a Ukrainian air defense response, with death and destruction inside Poland as an ultimate result. Russia is ultimately responsible since it was their attack that initiated the sequence of events. Simple jurisprudence.
Unless the Russian regime wakes up and stops attacking civilian targets, these collateral damages will accrue against the Russian side of the ledger and Russia will eventually have to pay with blood, tears, and the most pitiful suffering imaginable for a very long time. Russia will not be forgiven, and it is losing the ability to intimidate with every passing day.