In Peter Zeihan’s most recent in person presentation, he explains to an Ames, Iowa audience why Putin is facing a historic predicament, and what he is likely to attempt to do about it. After dealing with Russia and Germany, Zeihan discusses the economic and demographic squeeze that China has just begun to experience.
Economic sanctions against Putin’s country are ratcheting up, month by month. Every aspect of Russia’s industrial infrastructure is beginning to feel the crunch. Russia’s railway transportation spine is moving in the direction of paralysis as maintenance runs out of spare and replacement parts — including critical ball bearing replacement for Russia’s aging railcar fleet. North Korea and Iran can only help solve a small part of Russia’s supply crisis.
Supply shortages are contributing to tension between the Russian military and Russian security forces such as the FSB and the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia). The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on December 22 that tension is rising between Russian security forces and the Russian military because Russian security forces have access to the supply chain before the military, meaning that the security forces select the best vehicles and other supplies while the Russian military receives what is left over.[70] Meduza noted that tensions have only worsened due to an unofficial ban on the transport of certain goods, such as vehicles, through Crimea.[71] The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) shared intercepted audio of a Russian servicemember telling his friend that Russian forces continue to lack military equipment — despite what Russian media shows the Russian population — and that Russian servicemembers are consequently deserting in droves.[72] A Russian source also reported that a unit of mobilized personnel in Moscow ended up in Luhansk Oblast without supplies, food, personal belongings, or the means of communication.[73] The source stated that multiple unit members ended up in the hospital due to frostbite.[74]
Understanding War
Russian resistance to the invasion and ongoing genocide of Ukraine, is growing. Men of fighting age in Russia are becoming more rare. Russia is in the middle of the world’s largest self goal ever seen.
Why Russia and China Cannot Do High Technology
Russia and China have been falling behind in the global innovation race for many years now. We have been watching this phenomenon for some time. And it is getting worse — as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine illustrates, and as China’s growing economic and industrial problems reveal. The Covid19 fiasco is a window into why China is in decay.
Both Russia and China are experiencing demographic crises which could easily become existential in severity if these two tyrannies do not begin to lighten up on control. Their biggest and most profitable tech industries are beginning to see the light, and move out.
Russians Try to Make Sense of Why Their Government Went to War
Interviews of ordinary Russians such as those above help outsiders understand the effect of incessant propaganda and the strict limitation of free discussion which has plagued Russia and China for several generations now.
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