While Putin was busy with a futile attack on its western neighbour, the Russian Far East has continued to fall under China’s heavy thumb. And there is nothing that Russia can do about it!
Neither Russia nor China are in any position to take on the western world directly. Putin thought he could quickly conquer Ukraine before the snail-paced west could react. That effort failed. Meanwhile in Beijing, Xi thought he could quickly conquer Taiwan before the west could react. But before he could try it, Putin had already alerted the western world with his own invasion. After that, Xi decided it would be better to wait a while, and to effect a conquest that would not be so difficult: The conquest of the Russian Far East, while Russia was otherwise occupied!
Russian Failure at Bakhmut
“Russians probably expend more munitions trying to capture the town than Ukrainian forces expend to defend it,” Reno said. “Russian gains, such as they are, ordinarily would not justify the resources and effort they could have applied to better effect elsewhere. This is what wars of attrition look like on the battlefield.”
Reno explained a couple of hypotheses, which aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive, on why Russia may be so focused on seizing Bakhmut despite the limited tactical benefits that may offer. One of these is that Putin’s subordinates may not be entirely transparent with him about the true situation in Ukraine, over fears for their safety.
A Devastating Defeat
Russia Losing Over 15,000 Men a Month
Is Russia on the brink of another rout?
“I won’t be surprised if 16 thousand per month becomes the average loss of the Russian army in the coming months, because the professional and quality level will not come from nowhere, and even more biomass will be needed … After all, Putin constantly talks about a protracted war. Tight, thanks to what?
For example, the number of destroyed tanks by the Russian army is decreasing from month to month. Not because the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to eliminate them have decreased but because the invaders have fewer tanks in the combat zone. And, again, a striking disproportion with the growth of personnel losses,” said Kovalenko.
The expert also noted that a similar situation exists with artillery. The Russian army is experiencing an acute shortage in the number of barrels and problems providing it with combat kits. To date, there is a quantitatively proportional presence of artillery only in the Bakhmut area, but the Russians have an acute problem with ammunition there.
“The armored fighting vehicle is nothing new. The lack of a regular number of combat units in subdivisions also decreases the losses of this equipment. Not because there is nothing to destroy it, but because it has become many times less in service with the Russian army, which does not allow fully equipped units.
That is, for a protracted war, Putin’s main resource will be biomass? Yes exactly. Without provided equipment, artillery, ammunition, nothing. And it is impossible to drag out the war exclusively with this component in current conditions, especially with such losses.
In October, November, and incomplete December, the Russian invaders lost 45,640 killed. Wounded? According to the most conservative estimates x1-2. That is, almost 137 thousand or almost 50% of the entire mobilization. In fact, the resource of mobilization will completely exhaust itself by February.
Source
By bombing civilian infrastructure, Russia is trying to create a vast wasteland across the entire country of Ukraine, to drive a flood of displaced migrants from the country leaving an empty space between Russia’s former borders and the borders of NATO countries. But Ukraine is learning how to bomb military targets deep inside of Russia without using any long-range western sourced missiles. Ukrainians are savvy warfighters and technological innovators. Russia is giving Ukraine a reason to learn all the secrets of war.
Repeated Ukrainian strikes on legitimate military targets far in the Russian rear demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defenses against drones. Ukrainian forces attacked Engels Airbase with an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) on December 29, within three days of reports that air defense shot down a Ukrainian UAV over Engels and killed three Russian servicemen.[22] The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated on December 29 that it is “increasingly clear” that Russia “is struggling to counter air threats deep inside [its territory].”[23] The United Kingdom MoD assessed that Russian air defenses probably are struggling to meet the high demand for air defense for field headquarters near the front line in Ukraine while also protecting strategic sites, such as Engels Airbase.[24] The repeated strikes on Engels Airbase will likely exacerbate milblogger critiques that Russia cannot defend its own territory from Ukrainian strikes.
Understanding War
Russia plays the game of “fantasy warfare”
Russia recently announced a major expansion and reorganization of its army. The new force will have 1.5 million men, including 695.000 long-term volunteers (contract soldiers) and a larger number of conscripts. More than doubling the number of conscripts will be achieved by expanding the number of men eligible for conscription and increasing the length of service from 12 months to 18 or 24 months. The army will revert back to divisions rather than brigades full of BTGs (Battalion Task Groups). The odds of any of this happening are low.
Vladimir Putin declared that this new force would be created regardless of costs(!). That means less money for economic expansion and consumer goods. It’s a return to the Soviet Union era economy. The communist Soviet economy failed so badly that it caused national bankruptcy and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Older Russians remember how bad things were during the Soviet period and so should Putin. But he was an officer in the KGB when the Soviet Union collapsed and members of the KGB were a privileged class that lived better than the average Russian. KGB officers were out of touch with the reality most Russians lived in. Most Russians enjoyed higher standards of living after 1991 and will not willingly return to the bad old days. __ Source
The Russian invasion of Ukraine taught the world that Russia was not the world’s second best military. But Russia is the second best military in Ukraine! China has yet to put its forces to the test, and if it is smart it never will.
Nevertheless, China needs the resources of the Russian Far East and other parts of Siberia. If China cannot take Taiwan, it may seriously consider taking advantage of Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine and its current state of weakness under a devastating sanctions regime. Invading Russia through Mongolia may be the approach China chooses.
Expect China to stab Russia in the back, just as Germany stabbed Russia in the back during the Nazi years. That is the way with tyrannies and their alliances of convenience.
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Xi should wait until Mr. Putin is dead or gone or we are likely to find out whether or not Russia’s nukes actually work. The Russians have said before that they won’t fight China with troops but with nukes. Given the disparity in numbers this all they could do. You can expect Japan to get involved as well. Russia stole some of their land in WWII. Expect payback.