China’s Population Cut in Half: By 2050? By 2068? By 2100? China Aging Rapidly… What Does it Mean?

Predicting anything can be risky, but especially predicting the future. Falling census numbers and subsequent research have demographers predicting rapid drops in China’s population.

Based on that data and an overall reluctance to have more kids, the country’s population could be cut in half as soon as the year 2050, according to research published in the Journal of Xi’an University of Finance and Economics.

Cut in Half by 2050
Cut in Half by 2068

The United Nations has estimated that if China’s birth rate remains at its super-low level and the country fails to position itself as an attractive destination for migrants, the country will lose nearly half of its population by the end of this century, a contraction of roughly 700 million people.

Cut in Half by 2100

It isn’t important to predict to the exact year when China’s population will be cut in half from current numbers. It is more important to understand what is happening to China’s working age population, its very old population, and its very young population. And what that means for China’s future, and the future of the world.

Source of Table

What will happen to China’s GDP as its working age population crashes? Much of China’s GDP has been tied up in infrastructure malinvestment over the past 15 years, and will eventually lead to huge write-offs of bad debt. No one knows what a financial crash on top of a demographic crash will do to an already unstable China.

Korea Becoming Huge Arms Supplier to NATO

Korea’s economy by GDP is the 10th largest in the world. But as demand for weapons and ammunition grows in Ukraine and elsewhere, Korea is set to hop-scotch over a few other countries.

The war in Ukraine created increased demand for NATO standard weapons that could be delivered quickly. South Korea, already a growing exporter of weapons, was the major beneficiary of this demand. NATO nations seeking to replace weapons sent to Ukraine, or expand their own arsenals, found South Korea was the only major arms exporter able to meet this demand. Orders for South Korea weapons more than doubled in 2022 and this will push South Korea from one of the top ten arms exporters to one of the top five.

Korea a Thorn in the Side of the Axis of Evil?

And here lies the crux of the issue: South Korea’s demographic picture is almost as dire as those of Russia, China, Japan, Italy, Spain, and Canada. How long can South Korea continue to be the free world’s arms supplier? The answer may surprise you. Due to South Korea’s facile way with automation, there may be no demographic limitation whatsoever on South Korea’s ability to produce and supply modern weapons into the indefinite future.

Japan is likely to begin using its prolific robotics industry to start producing a lot more weapons as well. Advanced robotics when combined with improved machine intelligence, will make weapons and ammunition production much easier, safer, and more economical for even the most demographically challenged nation — as long as it has the intellectual resources to back up its advanced technology and to make sure its advanced technology industries are well supplied along all critical supply lines.

Weapons Producers and Funeral Homes: Boom Industries of the Future

I am not going too far out on the limb to predict two of the largest boom industries into the future, for countries that are likely to be left hanging as deglobalization proceeds to its somber climax.

Peter Zeihan

As deglobalization stretches into the future and the demographic collapse continues, we will see that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was but a preview of coming attractions. The youth bulges will occur in the more primitive parts of the world, providing cannon fodder for those dictators and generals willing to pay to feed, clothe, and transport the surplus young men to the places of conflict.

The Biden-instigated hordes crossing US southern borders are something else. Disorganized, and a mixed bag in terms of ability to contribute to the economies of the US and Canada, expect several kinds of instability as these masses are moved across the geography of North America.

No doubt a number of foreign state-sponsored instigators of discord and disruption will make their way along with economic and political migrants. But that is also true for the immigrants making their way into Europe and Oceania. It can’t be helped, given the mindless immigration policies of most of the governments of Europe, North America, and Oceania.

Russia and China are shrinking. Any wars that they instigate will contribute to this ongoing collapse. Ultimately, China will take advantage of its growing “big brother” status with Russia to rapidly infringe on Russian sovereignty in the Far East and in the best agricultural regions of Siberia. China must have the clean water and the relatively untainted fertile soil — it has polluted its own water and soil beyond repair.

New York Times: When Will China Reclaim Siberia?

Russia will be unable to resist this slow-motion incursion, since China holds the economic strings that allow Russia to exist — and this leverage is only increasing with every passing day. China’s own demographic collapse will become more complex, as the agricultural workers in “New Chinese Siberia” are likely to procreate at a rapid rate in order to produce young farm workers to help with ag production.

By this means, Chinese populations will steadily displace Russian populations across the livable regions of Siberia, over time.

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4 Responses to China’s Population Cut in Half: By 2050? By 2068? By 2100? China Aging Rapidly… What Does it Mean?

  1. Snake Oil Baron says:

    A Russian pundit based in the US (name eludes me) recently said that China would be more likely to help Russia fight any separatist movement in Russias east because they are already getting cheap resources from the area without being saddled with the responsibility of maintaining infrastructure and social well-being.

    • alfin2101 says:

      When China invades Russia, it will be as an elder brother helping out a struggling younger brother. I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia actually invites China in to help it maintain control. The rapid loss of Russian manpower via war, emigration, and natural losses, is making it impossible for Russia to defend its own borders, much less its internal borders.

      • Given the current situation and possible outcomes, there could be no one interested in “entering” anywhere.
        China, Russia and the US could just not have the means & will do to so.
        Nor the people, nor the wealth needed to do so.

        • alfin2101 says:

          Perhaps. Putin surprised many people a year ago when his troops entered Ukraine. Now the Kremlin is making the humorous claim that Russia was invaded by Ukraine. There are only so many persons with an IQ low enough to accept those claims.

          China has taken over Central Asia, the place that Moscow once controlled. But China has also taken over much of the Russian Far East, areas that were once part of China and will be again.

          The main claim made here, though, is that Putin is voluntarily making Russia a vassal of China by becoming so isolated through bad behavior that only China can supply it with certain things it needs to maintain any amount of global power and intimidation whatsoever.

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