Category Archives: Folly of Prediction

Climate Apocalypse Cult Built on Faulty Models

Posted on 16 March, 2017 by alfin2101

Why Climate Change Models So Badly Flawed Climate is shaped by hundreds of factors, most of which scientists do not understand with any precision. In other words, most of the meaningful variables that contribute to the Earth’s chaotic climate cannot … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Doom, Folly of Prediction, Groupthink | Tagged , | 1 Comment

A Sense of Security is the Beginning of Disaster

Posted on 5 May, 2016 by alfin2101

Humans crave security. They will go to great lengths in an attempt to make themselves feel safe and secure. Unfortunately, there is no limit to potential risks. The ones we focus on are often the least likely to do us … Continue reading →

Posted in Doom, Environment, Everything You Think You Know Just Ain't So, Folly of Prediction, Groupthink, Peak Oil, Rebuilding Civilisation, Survival Prepping | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Nobody Knows Nothing

Posted on 12 February, 2016 by alfin2101

“Why Oil Prices Will Rebound Before We Know It,” appeared when oil prices were about $50 a barrel. Crude briefly bounced to $60, before dropping more than 50 percent to about $26, where it trades today. … It’s not just … Continue reading →

Posted in Everything You Think You Know Just Ain't So, Folly of Prediction, Groupthink, Human Brain, Knowledge | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Climate Apocalypse Cult Hijacks Clean Earth Movement

Posted on 17 December, 2015 by alfin2101

Everyone loves pristine places: Clean air, clear water, blue skies. No one likes pollution such as one sees in Beijing, Moscow, or Mexico City. Everyone wants to see a clean Earth. So how did the “clean Earth movement” get so … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Folly of Prediction, Green Quagmire, Groupthink, Ideology | Tagged , | 2 Comments

What Does the Sun Have to Do With Climate?

Posted on 11 October, 2015 by alfin2101

The near future will be extremely interesting. I think it is important to accept that Nature pays no heed to what we humans think about it. Will the greenhouse theory survive a significant cooling of the Earth? Not in its … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Folly of Prediction, Groupthink, Knowledge, Science, Sun | Tagged , | Comments Off on What Does the Sun Have to Do With Climate?

Why are Climate Models so Estranged from Reality

Posted on 19 September, 2015 by alfin2101

Update: Blockbuster report on how temperature data has been altered to create a faked warming trend. What if it has all been one big lie? Why do climate models predict apocalyptic levels of warming that do not match up with … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Doom, Folly of Prediction, Groupthink, Science | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

Spotlight on Materials, Plus: Future Forecasting Pitfalls

Posted on 28 August, 2015 by alfin2101

The path to disruptive science, technology, and industry is often blocked by the need for better materials — and better ways of combining and configuring different materials. We will take a look at a few recent breakthroughs in the making, … Continue reading →

Posted in Demographics, Dysgenics, Folly of Prediction, Future, Idiocracy, IQ, Materials, Technology | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Death is Optional and Humans are Superfluous

Posted on 12 March, 2015 by alfin2101

If a country, if a people, today are left behind, they will never get a second chance, especially because cheap labor will count for nothing. Once you know how to produce bodies and brains and minds, cheap labor in Africa … Continue reading →

Posted in Demographics, Dysgenics, Folly of Prediction, Future, Next Level, Superfluous Humans | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

On This New Year’s, Remember: Forecasts are Almost Always Wrong

Posted on 31 December, 2014 by alfin2101

The economist-philosopher F.A. Hayek warned about “the limits of knowledge” and the “fatal conceit” exhibited by so many “experts.” The communists and socialists claimed that they could allocate resources and income better than markets. These false claims ultimately destroyed the … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Folly of Prediction, Future | Tagged | 2 Comments

Pessimism: It’s Easier and More Natural

Posted on 20 June, 2014 by alfin2101

Think of “Pessimism” as the default state for “experts” and “know it alls” …our innate tendency to be pessimistic but also want to be certain about the future means that “the gloom-mongers have it easy,” as author Dan Gardner argues … Continue reading →

Posted in Folly of Prediction, Future, Optimism, Technology | Comments Off on Pessimism: It’s Easier and More Natural

Hogs of Doom: Wallowing in Swills of Apocalypse

Posted on 31 January, 2014 by alfin2101

We live in precarious times. Entire economies are based upon nothing stronger than promissory notes written by thoroughly corrupt, incompetent, and unreliable bureaucratic institutions. Academic institutions are devoted more to self-enrichment and mass indoctrination than to the development of independent … Continue reading →

Posted in Doom, Economics, Folly of Prediction, Peak Oil, Survival Prepping | Tagged | 6 Comments

Third World Applauds Groupthink in Science

Posted on 7 November, 2013 by alfin2101

Groupthink is a peculiar weakness of the human mind. In children, we call it “peer pressure.” In climate change, we call it “consensus.” Janis (1972)’s eight symptoms [of groupthink]: illusion of invulnerability collective rationalization belief in inherent morality stereotyped views … Continue reading →

Posted in Folly of Prediction, Groupthink, Philosophy | Tagged | 2 Comments

The Importance of Being a Heretic

Posted on 6 October, 2013 by alfin2101

In a world where much of society — and even much of science — has succumbed to groupthink, it is refreshing to see a distinguished scientist who recognises the vital role of heretics in both science and society. As a … Continue reading →

Posted in Folly of Prediction, Groupthink, Philosophy, Science | Tagged , | 1 Comment

I Chose the Wrong Century to Believe in Peak Oil Doom

Posted on 2 February, 2013 by alfin2101

Previously published on Al Fin Energy …Peak Oil catastrophism is largely a manifestation of our primary cultural myth: that all things end with suffering, death, and then resurrection. Belief in apocalypse is programmed into western civilization. Given our heritage, “the … Continue reading →

Posted in Doom, Energy, Folly of Prediction, Peak Oil | Comments Off on I Chose the Wrong Century to Believe in Peak Oil Doom