How to Think Better

1. Understand deeply
2. Make mistakes
3. Raise questions
4. Follow the flow of ideas
5. Change
__ Burger and Starbird, quoted here

Note: The following article is adapted from a piece previously published on The Dangerous Child blog

How to Think
PDF Essay: Solitude and Leadership by William Deresiewicz

Thinking is a set of skills we learned at a very young age, in an automatic and mostly unconscious manner. We cannot remember how we learned to think the way we do, and so we are stuck with a large number of thinking “tics and foibles” that we might be better off without. This is unfortunate for us, and even the most intelligent of us must often struggle to compensate for our sub-optimal set of thinking skills.

If we started at the beginning, we could provide a better path to deep, powerful, and independent thinking for our children — if we only took the time and trouble to discover how. First, we need to learn to think better for ourselves. Then we can do a better job setting the stage for our Dangerous Children, in their adventures in thought and learning.

How Does One Learn How to Think (Better)?

If you do an internet search query: “How to Think,” the search engine response is likely to contain a large number of links to websites telling you how to think in particular ways. “How to think critically,” “How to think creatively,” “How to think logically,” etc. It can be difficult to find information on “how to think” in general.

Even so, some websites provide bits of interesting advice that may help youth and adults to think more effectively, within conventional boundaries. For example:

Thinking is something that happens naturally in each individual, but there are ways to deepen your thinking abilities. It takes time and practice to become a better thinker, but it’s a process you can hone all your life. Being a better thinker and keeping your mind sharp can help your mental and physical health in the long run!
__ More: How to Think

When I applied for my faculty job at the MIT Media Lab, I had to write a teaching statement. One of the things I proposed was to teach a class called “How to Think,” which would focus on how to be creative, thoughtful, and powerful in a world where problems are extremely complex, targets are continuously moving, and our brains often seem like nodes of enormous networks that constantly reconfigure. In the process of thinking about this, I composed 10 rules, which I sometimes share with students. I’ve listed them here, followed by some practical advice on implementation.


Every magazine trumpets the latest discoveries about how to be more physically fit.

But enhancing your thinking skills? Enriching your mind management skills? Not many articles about that. __

The short articles linked above contain some useful tips for improving one’s thinking skills. But even the most unconventional suggestions are still quite conventional. If we are to help to liberate the minds of future generations of Dangerous Children, we will need to unleash our own minds in some radical ways.

Making Radical Improvements in Thinking is Difficult (but not impossible) After a Certain Age

Edward De Bono, who introduced the idea of Lateral Thinking, has devoted his life to helping adults to think in more powerful, profound, and playful ways. He has been largely successful, but with only a surprisingly limited audience.
Full book catalog

De Bono has written a book on teaching children how to think. The slide presentation below provides a quick introduction to the ideas in Teach Your Child How to Think.

We should keep in mind that thinking is a set of interlocking skills and processes, which work behind the scenes in most adults in an almost wholly unconscious manner. These skills were developed from a very early age, beginning in the womb. They were automatically bootstrapped onto the rapidly developing neural substrate of the developing fetus, neonate, and infant. The process of thinking skills acquisition continues in childhood, is knocked off the tracks in puberty, and settles more or less in place by early adulthood.

If you want your Dangerous Child to have the most powerful and independent mind he can have, certain approaches to child nurturing and child raising will work better than others. If a parent or caretaker waits until college age — or even high school age — to provide an environment conducive to developing thinking skills, it will be much too late.

Teaching a Child to Think is Teaching Him to Be

The Dangerous Child Method is based upon the development of creative skills in movement, language, music, art, and pattern. Because the foundations of these skills are built long before the child can walk, talk, and meaningfully converse — even before birth — the approach to guiding Dangerous Child development in skills competency (including thinking skills) must take a primarily nonverbal form.

By developing the latent patterns of space, time, language, music, and motion, the Dangerous Child is prepared for a fuller range of possible skills when his brain moves through the sensitive periods of development in childhood.

For a very young child, there is no difference between thinking and being. It is only later that he learns to deceive, and create a secret inner life. It is crucial to facilitate the development of powerful thinking skills in the formative years, before the child begins to feel the strong tug of popular, nonsense culture.

Children are Born Creative

It is not necessary to teach a child to be creative. Rather, it is necessary to restrain yourself from destroying the child’s innate creativity. Some discipline is always necessary, since the child’s basic needs must be met in spite of the turbulent impulses and inner demands that most children are prey to.

Give the child a wide range of opportunities to experiment and exercise his creativity. Children begin to reveal their aptitudes and inclinations from an early point in their existence. Look for particular strengths which can be utilised for growth, and look for particular weaknesses which will need to be either eliminated or compensated for.

At each state of development, the process of developing new thinking skills will evolve and take different forms — building on older skills and integrating themselves, new into old.

Coaches Must Understand How New Thinking Skills Fit In

Some skills, such as music, art, motion, and language, seem to progress in a logical fashion, with occasional large jumps in skills and comprehension from plateau to plateau. The toddler is not so different from the olympic athlete, for example, in basic neuromuscular function. The development from one to the other is a matter of qualitative refinement and quantitative progression over time — and entirely plausible.

The development of a world class mathematician or theoretical physicist from a babbling infant is a little more difficult to conceive, but the basic ingredients are all there. Most infants who have the latent potential to be productive mathematicians or theoretical physicists will never develop into those professions, for many reasons.

One of the reasons for such a failure to evolve is that the necessary early forms of pattern experimentation and exploration were never attempted. Another reason for failure of latent physicists and mathematicians to develop is lack of interest or motivation. And so the tools for personal evolution (thinking skills and executive functions) were not provided at the needed time — usually long before parents even have an inkling that any useful skills of such a nature exist.

Children must be nurtured, but allowed to experiment and fail. They must be supported, but also taught to develop natural skills of hard work and independence. They must be valued, but not be led to see themselves as the centre of the universe.

Eventually the child will teach himself to bootstrap his own thinking skill sets. The real world will provide plenty of challenges against which to test himself and his unique approach to thinking.

Why today’s college students still can’t think

Afterword: From birth, Dangerous Children are provided strong foundations in music, art, movement, language, and pattern, according to the child’s age and stages of development. This is in preparation for “the great divergence” in learning which occurs as children take up more and more of the responsibility for their own learning.

Thinking skills are both conscious and unconscious, and underlie the basic foundational skills above. Whatever the child’s level of intelligence, whatever his inclinations and strengths, he will benefit from thinking skills training in conjunction with executive function training.

Note: Thinking skills evolve over time, in layers which interact. Providing ample clear and clean experiences in a loving and playful context over a wide range of categories — from language to music to movement to textures, colours, and patterns — will give newborns, infants, and toddlers plenty of grain and grist for the mill. If you follow the techniques used to teach children to teach themselves, soon they will take on more and more of their training — including thinking skills training.

For adults who want to learn to think better, consider these tips:

1. Synthesize new ideas constantly. Never read passively. Annotate, model, think, and synthesize while you read, even when you’re reading what you conceive to be introductory stuff. That way, you will always aim towards understanding things at a resolution fine enough for you to be creative.

2. Learn how to learn (rapidly). One of the most important talents for the 21st century is the ability to learn almost anything instantly, so cultivate this talent. Be able to rapidly prototype ideas. Know how your brain works. (I often need a 20-minute power nap after loading a lot into my brain, followed by half a cup of coffee. Knowing how my brain operates enables me to use it well.)

3. Work backward from your goal. Or else you may never get there. If you work forward, you may invent something profound–or you might not. If you work backward, then you have at least directed your efforts at something important to you.

4. Always have a long-term plan. Even if you change it every day. The act of making the plan alone is worth it. And even if you revise it often, you’re guaranteed to be learning something.

5. Make contingency maps. Draw all the things you need to do on a big piece of paper, and find out which things depend on other things. Then, find the things that are not dependent on anything but have the most dependents, and finish them first.

6. Collaborate.

7. Make your mistakes quickly. You may mess things up on the first try, but do it fast, and then move on. Document what led to the error so that you learn what to recognize, and then move on. Get the mistakes out of the way. As Shakespeare put it, “Our doubts are traitors, and make us lose the good we oft might win, by fearing to attempt.”

8. As you develop skills, write up best-practices protocols. That way, when you return to something you’ve done, you can make it routine. Instinctualize conscious control.

9. Document everything obsessively. If you don’t record it, it may never have an impact on the world. Much of creativity is learning how to see things properly. Most profound scientific discoveries are surprises. But if you don’t document and digest every observation and learn to trust your eyes, then you will not know when you have seen a surprise.

10. Keep it simple. If it looks like something hard to engineer, it probably is. If you can spend two days thinking of ways to make it 10 times simpler, do it. It will work better, be more reliable, and have a bigger impact on the world. And learn, if only to know what has failed before. Remember the old saying, “Six months in the lab can save an afternoon in the library.” __

The better one learns to think, the more obvious are the modern attempts to bamboozle by media, academics, government bureaucrats, attorneys, advertising, and the hordes of academically lobotomised psychological neotenates roaming the landscape.

Be wary about your use of and appeal to authority. Don’t rely on other people’s opinions, even if they seem to know what they are talking about. Check facts, look at alternate viewpoints. If you see holes in their arguments or reasoning, look into it. Don’t ever just stop looking into something just because an authority figure (like the news, or your professor, or your senator). Now, if a variety of independent sources are making the same argument or claim, it’s more likely that it is true.
Practice a healthy skepticism about what you uncover. Make sure that you find information that is corroborated by more than one source (it’s best to look for independent sources). Look into who is making the claims (are they subsidized by big oil companies, do they have a stake in propagating misinformation, do they simply have no idea what they’re talking about?).
Try new things and get outside your comfort zone. The more you do this, the easier it will be to look at opinions and ideas that don’t immediately conform to your worldview. It will also introduce you to ideas that you would never have encountered. So try out a cooking class, or learn to knit, or get interested in amateur astronomy.

Always continue to sharpen your skills at detecting scams and con jobs by persons high and low.

How to Lie With Statistics A classic sourcebook on common statistical fallacies used to deceive, free for reading or download at

The Works of Edward de Bono

Useful for learning math concepts: A Mind for Numbers

The more skillful and knowledgeable about thinking the adult, the better for guiding their Dangerous Child in his thinking evolution. The weakminded will never make the transition to The Next Level. But that is no reason for the rest of us to lag behind.


Potemkin University: Where Not to Go to Learn to Think

Posted in Cognition, Creativity, Dangerous Child, Human Brain | Tagged

Looking at Trump as if He Were Not Crazy

Some of President Trump’s tweets and actions — such as the abrupt firing of FBI Director James Comey — seem almost nonsensical. The media and general punditry certainly want to paint Trump in all shades of crazy, but what if the currents run much deeper than all of the public mouthpieces are willing to admit?

The following excerpts come from quotes in an article on Jerry Pournelle’s “Chaos Manor” blog, a website of unusual insight. They contain both verifiable information and “fill in the blanks” speculation. You may well find a new window opening up before your eyes, helping to explain much that might otherwise seem inexplicable. Here are some bare-bones excerpts from the article from Chaos Manor. Follow the link below to the original article:

Begin by noticing how the President fired Comey when Comey was 3,000 miles away from his office, that Comey had no inkling he was being cut, that all his files, computers, and everything in his office were seized by his boss Sessions and the justice department. This was not a violation of protocol, it was tactical. Notice how Prez Trump compartmentalized the strike and did not inform any of his White House “staff” to prevent leaks. Notice how he emasculated Comey and the swamp denizens by letting them know in a tweet that the Attorney General got information (surveillance “tapes” from the seizure of Comey’s office) to let Comey and his handlers know that Trump’s DOJ has the goods on them. This was a brilliant, strategic and totally imperative move at exactly the right time against horrible, evil and corrupt powers infesting our government.

The swamp is on notice that the President is on to them, they are sweating bullets because their criminal games of corruption are being pursued and they know it. They are screaming and ranting because they are desperate denizens of the swamp who are beginning to realize they are roadkill.

… Comey was a minor assistant US attorney in the late 90’s. He only gained power and money by being the DOJ official who “investigated” and cleared Bill Clinton of any wrong-doing in Clinton’s totally corrupt pardon (for huge payoffs) of criminal financier Marc Rich as Clinton was leaving the Presidency. This is how Comey began his career as a creature of the “swamp” years ago, as a servant of the Clintons.

Comey provided “cover” for the Clintons in their gaining incredible power and wealth after leaving office through pardoning a billionaire money-launderer, arms dealer and criminal. Comey was a key piece in how the Clintons upped their corruption game and gained incredible wealth through their foundation after leaving the White House. A huge part of the scheme was giving Marc Rich a free pass when he should have spent life in prison, and that is what Comey covered-up for the Clintons. This set up Comey to be part of the corruption machine, making him powerful and wealthy.

Immediately after doing the Clinton’s dirty work as a DOJ official, Comey resigned from the DOJ and took a position as the head attorney (Counsel) of the Lockheed Martin company, a huge military contractor. While he was in that position Lockheed became a major contributor (millions) to the Clinton Foundation and its fake charity spin-offs. In return for these payment to Clinton Inc., Lockheed received huge contracts with Hillary’s state department. Comey was the chief legal officer of Lockheed throughout this period of contributions to Clinton Inc. in return for State Dept. contracts.

In late 2012, after overseeing Lockheed’s successful relationship with the Hillary State Department and the resulting profits, Comey stepped down from Lockheed and received a $6 million dollar payout for his services.

In 2013, the largest bank of England, HSBC Holdings, was deep into a scandal. Investigations by federal authorities and law-enforcement had revealed that for years HSBC had been laundering billions of dollars for Mexican Drug Cartels, channeling money for Saudi banks who were financing terror, moving money for Iran in violation of the sanctions, and other major criminal activity. HSBC’s criminality was pervasive and deliberate by the Bank and its officials. HSBC was a huge Clinton Foundation contributor (many millions) throughout the “investigation” and Bill Clinton was being paid large personal fees for speaking at HSBC events (while Hillary was Sec of State). Eric Holder and the Obama Justice Department did what they were paid to do, and let HSBC off of the hook for a paltry 1.2 Billion dollar fine (paid by its stockholders), and not one Director, officer or management member at HSBC was fired or charged with any criminal. Exactly when everyone involved with HSBC Bank (including the Clintons and all of their “donors”) were being let off without penalty, and cover had to be provided to HSBC, Comey was appointed as a Director and Member of the Board of HSBC (in the middle of the fallout from the scandal). He was part of the effort to cover up the scandal and make HSBC “respectable” again.

After about a year as HSBC director, despite his lack of any law enforcement experience, no DOJ leadership experience, and no qualifications for the job, Comey was appointed FBI director by Obama. The only qualification Comey had was that the Clinton’s and their cronies knew Comey was in bed with them, was compromised and was willing to do their dirty work. Comey was appointed to the FBI right when Hillary was leaving the State Department, and was vulnerable to the FBI because she had been using a private-server, mis-handling classified information, selling access to favors/contracts from the State Department to Clinton Foundation Donors (including Comey’s Lockheed Martin), and much more. Remember that this was about the time the Inspector General of the State Department found over 2 billion “missing” from the State Department finances during Hillary’s tenure.

The obvious conclusion is that Comey was appointed to the FBI (along with other reliable Clinton-Obama cronies) to run interference for the Clinton’s and Obama’s at the nation’s federal law enforcement agency(in conjunction with a corrupt Department of Justice). Comey was and is owned by the Clintons. He owed all of his power and wealth to being part of their machine and providing them with cover.

… If Hillary had won, Comey would have kept right on providing cover for the corruption of the Clinton machine. He would have kept the FBI paralyzed, prevented the Clinton Fund from being investigated, and continued to do his job as the Clinton’s personal scandal eraser at the FBI.


The Swamp and its bottom-dwelling denizens realize they are at risk from this political outsider who is not connected to the uni-party machines. Before Trump takes office, a “failsafe” plan is implemented to ruin Trump’s administration and try to force him out of the Presidency. The key players committed to the plan are the democrat politicians, the RINO establishment, the media, the Obama-Clinton operatives imbedded throughout the intelligence agencies and the entire bureaucracy, and most importantly, the Obama DOJ and JAMES COMEY. The scheme is to smear Trump with Russian “connections,” through a fake FBI “investigation” and more importantly, to trap him into a charge of criminal interference with the FBI. COMEY IS THE CENTRAL FIGURE IN THE SCHEME TO TAKE DOWN TRUMP.

The surveillance of the Trump campaign is continued after he is elected, all participants are “unmasked” illegally, and the transcripts are leaked throughout the government and to the media. When General Flynn appropriately calls Russian officials on behalf of Trump, they brush off the old fake “dossier” and all of the surveillance of the campaign, and Comey creates the “Russian Conspiracy” investigation. With help by RINO swamp kingpin and warmonger sell-out McCain, the fake “Russian pee dossier” is leaked to the press. There is no actual evidence of any collusion or connection between Trump or his campaign with Russia, but that does not prevent Comey from initiating an “investigation” at the FBI. …

… Trump tells almost no one at the White House that he is moving against Comey (so no leaks… no listening in on his conversations) Trump somehow contacts Sen. Grassley (the Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee) and confirms that Comey told the Senator that Trump was not under investigation personally. Trump gets both the Attorney General and the new Deputy Attorney General to legitimately review Comey’s unprofessional actions at the FBI and to recommend in writing that Trump terminate Comey. Somehow Comey goes to California (at the request of AG Sessions or already scheduled and someone at FBI telling Trump?).

Trump seizes the moment and acts. While Comey is in California, 3000 miles away and 7 hours from his office, Trump prepares a letter firing him (with Sessions and the Deputy AG recommendations attached). In the letter Trump states that he had been told 3 times by Comey that he (Trump) was not under investigation. The letter is hand-delivered to the FBI headquarters by DOJ officials to lock-down and seize everything in Comey’s office, including all surveillance files (“tapes”) of Trump and others. All of Comey’s files, docs, computers and “tapes” are taken to Sessions at DOJ. They are not taken to the Whitehouse or Trump, but to Sessions, who has every right to have them. Sessions can tell Trump that Comey had surveillance tapes of Trump that contradict what Comey has been telling Trump, and perhaps tapes of conversations with other swamp “conspirators.” But Trump does not have them personally or at the Whitehouse.

… The whole Russia interference scheme crashes and burns. While the mouthpiece media, Hollywood and the insane fringe continue to scream about Russia and Comey being fired, the politicians who will soon be in the crosshairs of a legitimate (and ticked) FBI and DOJ are starting to fall strangely silent. Comey realizes all the leverage is with Trump and that he will be lucky if he is not added to the Clinton Death List because of his knowledge (better not take any baths near an electrical outlet or get on any airplanes). ___

The article excerpted above is of much longer length, and contains much more background detail which can be confirmed independently.

It is becoming clear that deeply corrupt elements inside the US government were caught unprepared for a Trump presidency. Complicit with the media — which has always been strongly biased against Trump — these deep state operatives attempted an improvised plan to destroy Trump’s credibility, and to try to portray Trump as insane, evil, traitorous, and to place him in any other pejorative category possible.

But despite the tremendous power of old media, alternative methods of dispersing and cross-checking information are now operating strongly in society, and will only grow stronger and more pervasive.

There is no reason to believe every detail in the article linked above — only what is independently verifiable. But the fact that so much of the verifiable information above is not being made available to the public by the mainstream media tells us that the media is not interested in informing the public — only in manipulating public opinion to extend its own influence and control over information flows.

Keep your eyes open and your powder dry.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.


FBI involved in illegal sharing of spy data on US citizens

Hints and innuendo drive media narrative — no real news or evidence there

Obama’s NSA caught in illegal spying — and the mainstream media clamps a tight lid on the news

The corruption runs strong through the deep state, the old media, academia, big money political activist groups, and the wealthy elitists who channel money to feed the corruption. We’re gonna need a lot more guillotines!

New revelations have surfaced that the Obama administration abused intelligence during the election by launching a massive domestic-spy campaign that included snooping on Trump officials.

The irony is mind-boggling: Targeting political opposition is long a technique of police states like Russia, which Team Obama has loudly condemned for allegedly using its own intelligence agencies to hack into our election. __

Posted in Donald Trump, Government, Politics | Tagged | 2 Comments

Climate Change Hurrah! CO2 and the Greening Earth

More CO2 Leads to More Forests!

Trends in Leaf Area Index, 1978-2009. Positive tones are greening, negative are browning, and the dots delineate where the changes are statistically significant. There is approximately 9 times more area significantly greening up than browning down.

Greenhouse operators have long known that enhancing CO2 levels enhances plant growth. Research scientists are discovering that higher atmospheric CO2 levels boost biological growth on land (and sea).

We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models show that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend… __ Source

References for article excerpted above:

Bastin, F-L., et al., 2017. The extent of forest in dryland biomes. Science 356, 635-638.

Zhu, Z., et al., 2016. Greening of the earth and its drivers. Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038

Earth’s oceans have warmed over the past 150 years, releasing more dissolved CO2 into the atmosphere. But the terrestrial biosphere has expanded as a result, and will continue to expand as long as it continues to be fertilised by increasing CO2.


Until recently, the biosphere of Earth has been relatively “carbon starved.” Life on Earth welcomes the chance to bloom again, and thanks humans for the very small contribution they make to this transient CO2 resurgence.

The Earth marks climate change on the scale of millenia and longer time spans. Climate shifts on short scales of hundreds of years usually do not leave a lasting mark on the record. The current politicised hullabaloo over miniscule temperature changes over small time spans is not the mark of an intelligent species.

A bit of perspective on greenhouse gas sources:

Sources of Greenhouse Gases

Governments, Activists, Academicians, and Media Follies Compound

Many $billions have already been misallocated into the Climate Apocalypse Cult, and if the Paris Climate Treaty is put into full effect, hundreds of $billions will be thrown away in similar fashion each year.

In addition, several governments in Europe and the Anglosphere are committing their populations to a future of energy starvation via the corrupt and intermittent unreliables, big wind and big solar.

Even put together, wind and photovoltaic solar are supplying less than 1 per cent of global energy demand. From the International Energy Agency’s 2016 Key Renewables Trends, we can see that wind provided 0.46 per cent of global energy consumption in 2014, and solar and tide combined provided 0.35 per cent. Remember this is total energy, not just electricity, which is less than a fifth of all final energy, the rest being the solid, gaseous, and liquid fuels that do the heavy lifting for heat, transport and industry.

Such numbers are not hard to find, but they don’t figure prominently in reports on energy derived from the unreliables lobby (solar and wind). Their trick is to hide behind the statement that close to 14 per cent of the world’s energy is renewable, with the implication that this is wind and solar. In fact the vast majority — three quarters — is biomass (mainly wood), and a very large part of that is ‘traditional biomass’; sticks and logs and dung burned by the poor in their homes to cook with. Those people need that energy, but they pay a big price in health problems caused by smoke inhalation.

Even in rich countries playing with subsidised wind and solar, a huge slug of their renewable energy comes from wood and hydro, the reliable renewables.

It is all a magnificent circular jerkular scam of $trillion dollar proportions. Why do we let them get away with it?

We’re gonna need a lot more guillotines.

Posted in Climate, Energy, Green Quagmire, Groupthink | Tagged , | 2 Comments

High Tax / Low Opportunity States Losing People

States that voted for Hillary are going broke and losing the people and businesses they cannot afford to lose.

High-tax states are losing human capital and financial wealth to low-tax states with more personal and regulatory freedom. When people leave high-tax states, it tends to reduce business formation, job creation, and consumption in those states. This means a smaller tax base to support high government spending. High-tax states need to cut spending, lower taxes, and foster a friendly regulatory environment if they want to keep their residents. California and Illinois also need to address their unfunded state pension liabilities. AIER pointed out in a recent post that unfunded state pension liabilities mean even higher taxes on the horizon.

… Burdensome regulatory policy and a lack of personal freedom also push people out of states such as New York, California, and Illinois. Each year, the Cato Institute creates the Freedom in the 50 States Index. The index includes state regulatory policies, personal freedom, and fiscal policies. Included regulatory policies concern such issue areas as health insurance, occupational restrictions, and land use. Personal freedom concerns marriage, education, and the criminal justice system. Last year, New York State was ranked 50th, or dead last, on the Freedom in the 50 States Index. California was right behind New York State at 49th. Illinois fared slightly better at 44th. __ Fiscal Times

States and countries with the best long-term prospects are those that maximise opportunity and minimise parasitic rent-seeking. A map of the US states by “levels of freedom” replicates closely a map of the US by November 2016 voting patterns. States that went strongly to Trump tend to be much “higher opportunity and high freedom states” while the states that went strongly to Clinton tend to be “lower opportunity and low freedom states.” Clinton states are also more likely to be crushed by the pension tsunami.

International Migration Is Also Attracted to Higher Opportunity

High freedom and high opportunity nations are also the most popular destinations for international immigration. Of nations sufficiently large to accommodate significant immigration, nations of Europe and the Anglosphere rank at the top.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Government, Politics | Tagged

Russia: Saving the Country; Losing the Empire

Things can get messy when an empire devolves and fragments, as they always do. It has been a traumatic 100 years for Russia, and it looks like it may get a lot worse.

The Rise of the Russian Empire and Then the Fall

Historical Growth of Russian Empire

As Empires Rise So Do They Fall

Russia today is a huge and increasingly unwieldy conglomeration of smaller regions and nations held together by Muscovy, the central core of the Russian Federation. The empire is undergoing an existential crisis triggered by Vladimir Putin’s failed bloody attempt to recover control of Ukraine in 2014. The subsequent ongoing economic catastrophe inside of Russia threatens to drag the empire through another round of losses.

Russia is facing an economic crisis, and the search for palatable solutions has come up empty. Low oil and natural gas prices have hamstrung the Russian economy, which depends on the sale of hydrocarbons. President Vladimir Putin knows the status quo must change, but he has put off a decision on the path forward as long as he could, reluctant to face the negative political and social consequences of action. __ GeoFutures

Alexei Kudrin may be the one man who can save Russia. But it will come at the cost of Putin’s neo-imperial ambitions and over-generous people-pleasing pensions. Expensive military weapons systems would have to be scaled down or dropped altogether. Putin’s exorbitant world strut would necessarily be damped down. The unaffordable, bloody quest for imperial expansion would need to stop immediately, with the concerns of the Russian military restored to the more modest job of defending Russia’s internationally recognised borders.

It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form. Russia’s failure to transform its energy revenue into a self-sustaining economy makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations. __ Decadal Forecast

Too much land, too few ethnic Russians. Immigration is changing the fundamental nature of Russia’s population. Fewer and fewer “Russians” care about the Russian Empire every day that passes. The demographic decline of an increasingly urbanised ethnic Russian population accelerates the loss of control.

… Russia will devolve into a confederation or even fragment into secessionist parts by 2040. The future of Russian nuclear weapons will become a crucial strategic issue as this devolution takes place. __ Road to 2040

Russia Faces a Number of Secessions and Covert Annexations

Russia is composed of dozens of jurisdictions, most of which have some separatist ambitions from Moscow. As the RF loses its ability to hold onto these jurisdictions, several states and regions will jump from Moscow’s orbit — just as the many nations of Central and Eastern Europe jumped away in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Moscow is attempting to hold onto empire and world power through intimidation and regional invasions. But Russia’s dwindling income cannot support the many ambitions of the little big man currently in charge.

Unless Putin takes Kudrin’s advice, Moscovy is likely to feel lonelier and smaller over the next decades.

Compressing the Empire

Posted in Russia | Tagged | 1 Comment

China Road to World Domination Hits Snags

… it’s almost certain that the amount of money that makes its way into Belt-and-Road projects will be significantly lower than advertised. Grand in ambition but short on details, Xi’s sweeping initiative may be better thought of as a “philosophy” or “party line,” rather than a fixed commitment. One thing’s for sure: It’s going to be a lot harder than putting [out endless press releases and putting on conferences]. __ Why China Can’t Afford Its Grand Scheme

China’s leaders wish to build Chinese railways and seaports from Asia to Europe, across Africa, and through the heart of Latin America. But planning something and doing something are not of equal difficulty.

Belt-and-road projects are failing already. In Kara-Balta in Kyrgyzstan, Zhongda China Petrol, a state-owned company, built a big oil refinery—then found it could not buy enough crude oil to run it at more than 6% of capacity. The country’s deputy prime minister called the plant’s construction “ridiculous”; locals are protesting against its environmental impact. __ Economist

China’s ambitions are grand in scope. But as a modern industrial power, China is still experiencing growing pains. Chinese expertise in many areas of technology is simply not up to par:

… Chinese companies need to demonstrate that they are able to do the job. The CNPC subsidiary that built Abu Dhabi’s key strategic oil pipeline to the Indian Ocean port of Fujairah was heavily criticized over construction faults. As with BP in Iraq’s Rumaila field and Total in South Pars, Chinese firms may lean on international partners for technical and management skills in tricky, novel environments. __ Bloomberg

Just at the moment China was poised to step onto the stage which the US President Trump threatens to abandon, obstacles for the dragon’s ambitions suddenly appear. Clearly China is not really ready for prime time on the scale that its leaders seem to desire.

The scheme is running into three linked problems. First, it is unclear what its priorities are, or who is running it. “We haven’t really come up with a specific goal,” says Zou Tongxuan of Beijing International Studies University. Every province has its own belt-and-road investment plan. So do hundreds of state-owned firms. The government’s strong backing has helped to get many projects up and running faster than might have happened otherwise (Mr Xi first began to talk about the idea only in 2013). But no one is in day-to-day charge, so thousands of financially dubious schemes have the imprimatur of a belt-and-road project. And the overweening behaviour of Chinese companies in some countries where they operate has stoked fears in some places of an over-mighty China.

… [China’s economy] is so vast that belt-and-road countries fear being overwhelmed by it. Loans from one bank, China Eximbank, for example, account for a third of Kyrgyzstan’s foreign debt. Yunnan is one of China’s poorer provinces. Yet its economy is still four times bigger than that of its more populous neighbour, Myanmar. Countries both long for and dread Chinese investment. __ Economist

China’s Demographic Conundrum

50% Working Women Childless

China’s women left the farms to work in the cities. But working women in China are having few if any children. Robots will need to take up the slack.

And Then There is Russia

Putin is not ready to accept a subservient role as junior partner in the Grand Dragon Express Global Control Enterprise. He has his own neo-imperial dreams which involve the conquest of many of the countries that China wants to make deals with. Conflicts between these frenemies are certain.

For its part, China sees great possibilities for the Russian Far East, if it can only be pried from the weakening grasp of an increasingly Europe-focused Moscow. The dragon wants a huge piece of the bear’s lunch.

One Yellow Brick Road a Fantasy in Flux

At least China has a grand goal toward which to aim as a national enterprise. Much of Europe and the Anglosphere are adrift without significant plans or goals, content to be slowly absorbed by less developed, less intelligent populations of official and unofficial immigrants — more prolific than the natives they will be replacing.

China alone, of the high IQ populations, continues to shoot for the moon as a nation.

Russia is so corrupt as to be doomed, economically and demographically. The EU is sinking quickly under a flood of dysfunction from ruinous energy and immigration policies. Only elements of the Anglosphere (+ Japan, S. Korea, Switzerland etc.) continue to allow freedom of investment and enterprise which keeps them ahead in a wide range of science, technologies, and innovative industrial potential. For now, China must continue to steal, cheat, and spy to keep up. Even so, it will take time for China’s real expertise in performance to catch up with what it knows in databases.

The US, finally, is producing a larger part of its own energy at ever cheaper costs, as well as food and other essentials. Most of the US economy involves deals within the US itself, and with Canada and Mexico. Under US President Trump, expectations have been high that the US will back away from the role as world policeman, opening up that role to another would-be superpower. China would like the option to step in and take control, if it only could.

Another viewpoint on China’s quest to export its own dysfunction … Debt mountain imperialism: so all the third world can be leashed to the Chinese experience.

China’s Imperial Overreach

Silk Road to Nowhere

The risk of non-performing loans at state-owned banks is already clouding China’s future economic prospects. Since reaching a peak of $4 trillion in 2014, the country’s foreign-exchange reserves have fallen by about a quarter. The ratings agency Fitch has warned that many OBOR projects – most of which are being pursued in vulnerable countries with speculative-grade credit ratings – face high execution risks, and could prove unprofitable.

Xi’s approach is not helping China’s international reputation, either. OBOR projects lack transparency and entail no commitment to social or environmental sustainability. They are increasingly viewed as advancing China’s interests – including access to key commodities or strategic maritime and overland passages – at the expense of others.

In a sense, OBOR seems to represent the dawn of a new colonial era – the twenty-first-century equivalent of the East India Company, which paved the way for British imperialism in the East. But, if China is building an empire, it seems already to have succumbed to what the historian Paul Kennedy famously called “imperial overstretch.” __

China’s hard working, enterprising, and resourceful people can prop up even the worst of governmental systems for a time. But eventually the misallocation of capital and the straitjacketing of individual opportunities and freedoms will catch up to the dysfunctional system. At that point the long delayed train wreck can trigger long lasting destructive repercussions over a wide geopolitical area.

Posted in China, Russia | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Everything You Believe is a Lie

Perpetual Motion Waterfall
MC Escher … Wikipedia

None of it is your fault. It is just the way the human brain is made. The brain tries to resolve ambiguities in the best way it can, using all the innate quirks of our senses, emotions, and rational thought processes.

Early (at least partially deluded) beliefs take precedence in shaping later beliefs, until in the end we are unable to comprehend what a confused mess we have made for ourselves. The article excerpted below goes into more detail of the different mechanisms of how beliefs are built and shaped.

Humans cannot perceive reality directly. Instead, the outside world is filtered through our various senses. Significant filtering and pre-processing occur in the sensory organs themselves. Inside the brain, “primary” areas are devoted to each of the senses, where further filtering and pre-processing of information take place — under the influence of feedback from “higher” brain areas. From the primary sensory cortex, the information proceeds to “associative” sensory areas and other cortical and sub-cortical parts of the brain, where an incredible free-for-all of clashing and matching information occurs deep below the level of consciousness. __ Everything You Think You Know Just Ain’t So

The challenge to each of us is to let down our shields which protect our castles of belief, and to reacquaint ourselves with the arts of observation, hypothesis generation, and testing of our hypotheses in merciless fashion.

It Doesn’t Help When “Authorities” Claim Too Much

We Really Are Empty Cups

The field of [] is still in its infancy, and we’re just beginning to develop a true science of []. Unfortunately, we still have a long way to go in that regard. There are hundreds of competing schools of [], and every school claims to have the best approach. I’m convinced that many of our most cherished theories about the causes of [] will eventually be proven false, and that our best [] techniques will be eclipsed by vastly more effective models in the future. So we really are empty cups. If we can work together with a spirit of humility, mutual respect, and creativity, I’m convinced that we can do some good work — and maybe brilliant work at times — to []. __ David Burns MD (workshop materials)

David Burns is talking about the field of psychotherapy, but what he says can as easily apply to climate science, human biological diversity, gender differences, cognitive science, and dozens of other areas of science which have been at least partially suppressed and biased by corrupting political influences.

You Cannot Trust What You Are Told Anymore

Of course you never could trust what you were told. But you were too young to understand that in your early years. Most of us came to discover the need for scepticism in our teens and early adulthood. But those with the wisest parents were led to that discovery much earlier, by the age of 10 or 12.

The earlier a child can be led to self-discovery, self-teaching, and self-authenticating of information, the earlier he can safely step into the swift currents of modern scholarship, entrepreneurship, and serious social relationships.

As Adults, We had Best Be Able to Check the Veracity and Validity of our Sources

Nothing is more distressing than to observe how herds of young adults are coerced and intimidated by university faculty, staff, and administration into a politically correct groupthink — at the expense of their ability to decide and think for themselves. Recent college riots and witch trials are only the surface manifestations of a deep rot which extends throughout academia, media, government, foundations, and other cultural institutions.

Avoiding all the traps of groupthink is not easy, even with the best parents, mentors, teachers, and coaches.

My students have learned since their early school days how to evaluate the facts the world holds out to them. They are often masters of logic and technique, accomplished debaters, and skilled at choosing between weaker and stronger claims. Yet, like children taught to believe that babies are brought in the beaks of storks, they have not learned to question how facts are made. This moment calls for an end to that dangerous innocence. Only through sustained reflection on why we know what we think we know can we find ways to strengthen, even augment, our collective knowing—and so push back against those who would dismantle the human institutions we have entrusted with the hard task of making public knowledge. __ Judith Curry

No wonder so many young adults are postponing the normal responsibilities of adulthood, choosing an existence of perpetual adolescence instead. No wonder so many choose employment as paid protestors and agitators in the pay of shady organisations financed by super-rich insiders linked to corrupt political machines, such as the late Obama administration. Lacking the perspective that comes from a true education and life experience, these psychological neotenates become oblivious cannon fodder for cynical manipulators among the politically aggressive wealthy elite.

Brains Mustn’t Miss Their Chances

Young developing brains pass through many sensitive windows of formative activity. If they are not given the proper chances to experiment, experience, and master the successive rites of passage, they will struggle unnecessarily with some of these issues for many years.

Sensitive Windows of Development

This is what much of The Dangerous Child Method is about. The most dangerous weapon a child can wield is a well honed mind. Particularly a mind which he has honed for himself, out of his own mastery of self-learning and doing.

Wise persons understand and take as a point of departure that everything they think they know, just ain’t so. Or put another way, everything they believe is a lie.

Understanding why it is true and how they can compensate for the problem is the starting point for wisdom and achievement.

Posted in Everything You Think You Know Just Ain't So, Groupthink, University | Tagged | 3 Comments

Three Mechanisms Helping to Create a Dumber World

How Dysgenics Might Come About

Physicist and Population Geneticist Greg Cochran:

There are three main ways in which IQ could decrease:

I. Selection could favor lower IQ within a group. How fast?
[AF Example: Biased government supports to less qualified groups pushes their fitness levels higher than actually warranted.]

II. Demographic changes– groups with lower IQ could be immigrating, or differences in birth rates could mean that smarter groups are declining relative to other groups.
[AF: Immigration into Europe and the Anglosphere come largely from lower IQ populations. Simultaneously, lower IQ native women tend to have significantly more children than higher IQ native women.]

III. Relaxed selection. It looks as if a lot of the variance in IQ is due to rare deleterious variants generated by mutation. Over the long run, selection has eliminated those deleterious mutations as fast as they were generated (mutation-selection balance). Over the last few generations, selection has weakened: a smaller fraction of babies are dying. Even though most of those babies in the past were dying of disease or starvation, not directly connected to baby IQ, babies in better genetic shape were more likely to survive.

Weaker selection -> increasing genetic load -> lower IQ. __ Greg Cochran

The history of our genetic descent determines our relative advantages and disadvantages for surviving, prospering, and procreating in a particular environment. But over time, our genomes mutate and change. Mistakes pile up, and one of the many results is a greater difficulty in thinking clearly and intelligently within a particular environment.

Smarter people seem to live longer because they’re in better genetic shape – ultimately because a huge fraction of the genome is expressed in the brain and influences intelligence. Being smarter means that on average you’re in better genetic shape, while being in better genetic shape – having lower genetic load – means that on average you’ll be smarter. __ Greg Cochran

Genocide of more intelligent populations is a more rapid method of depleting the smarter elements from the human gene pool. Genocide can be done overtly — as in the Nazi death camps, or Pol Pot’s mass executions of educated people — or covertly, as in multicultural societies where the more intelligent breeding groups are put at artificial disadvantage by government incentives and disincentives (affirmative action, aggressive welfare policies, high taxes and health care costs, incentives to drive more intelligent women into the workforce and away from motherhood, etc.)

Genetic Load — Accumulation of Disadvantageous Gene Variants

More ancient breeding populations which developed under conditions of decreased selection can be expected to accumulate higher levels of deleterious gene variants, on a statistical basis. This may partially explain the very low levels of average IQ seen in sub Saharan black African populations.

Populations which evolved in harsher and less predictable climates will more likely “shed” many deleterious mutated variants under a stronger “selection of the fittest” for that environment.

In modern societies with more effective and aggressive medical care, selection is partially neutralised, allowing genetic load to accumulate more rapidly across the overall breeding pool.

As a result of all of the mechanisms above, average human IQ across the globe is in decline.

Read the free online book “Dysgenics” by Richard Lynn for a more detailed explanation of the phenomenon.

What is the Opposite of Dysgenics?

Hitler thought that he was improving the human race by trying to eliminate Jews from Europe. But by killing millions of high IQ Jews, he was reducing the brainpower of humankind, with all the disadvantages for the race which accompany an overall “dumber” human population.

It is clear that politicians and government agents cannot be trusted with the future of humanity, and neither can today’s class of self-appointed elitist “intellectuals.” Brighter people are going to have to take on this burden for themselves, understanding that no one and no group can “save the world.”

Non-violent, under the blanket methods will work the best for now, without the counter-productive eliminationist methods of the obviously failed past. Ultimately artificial wombs and other advanced reproduction methods will help to increase populations of fitter genomes — but then it is up to parents and communities to maximise the fitness of younger generations through more sophisticated education, self-education, and a proliferation of opportunities of life choice and self-development.

Posted in Dysgenics | Tagged | 3 Comments

Is the George Soros Gang Trying to Incite a US Civil War?

Shortly after the 2016 US elections which placed Donald Trump in the White House, George Soros met with a cabal of like-minded disaffected dementors to devise a path of destruction for the incoming Trump administration. It is not that these plotters explicitly planned to foment a US civil war. But the motto “by any means necessary” became the watchword of the astroturfed demonstrations which began popping up immediately after the closed meeting.

Plotting the Eve of Destruction

Over at the Fabius Maximus website — a site which is sympathetic to the old-style left/liberalism of Franklin Roosevelt but not so much to the intolerant new left which has taken over campuses, newsrooms, foundations, and other institutions — the editor is becoming quite concerned about the possibility of a cascading violence which could propagate throughout US society as a result of radical new leftist violence and intolerance.

The editor follows the timeline of leftist incitement from inauguration day in January, through the Middlebury College riot in March, to the April Berkeley riot stemming from Milo Yiannopoulis’ aborted talk on the UCB campus, to the present. He worries that it may be too late to stop the lines of schism from breaking through to the surface in violent manner.

… [Leftist writer Rick Perlstein’s] description of the situation is false because he grossly understates the Left’s role in this. This is very 21st century America, where responsibility has become one of the few words inappropriate for polite company (unless used in the second or third person).

I wonder if a Republic can survive when its people are unable to clearly see the world and have so little interest in truth (two of the great themes of this website). Both Left and Right have gone bonkers (details here). We need a reality-based community. Rising political violence suggests the clock is running. It will begin with decisions to act by individuals. Like you. __ Fabius Maximus

If you are on the right side of the spectrum you may feel that only the left has gone bonkers. But the left believes the same thing of you. In light of the ultimate threat involved here, it is crucial to attempt to see the ongoing schism from all sides.

George Soros is Desperate to Discredit Trump Totally Before Too Much of the Obama Legacy is Rolled Back

The question “Does George Soros Want to Incite a US Civil War” is a rhetorical question. But if Soros and friends cannot stop the Trump administration from “draining the swamp” in any other way than through violence, no doubt they will selectively utilise whatever they feel is effective.

The actions of Soros’ fascist followers to this point have not been successful in creating significant counter-violence from their opposition. But as they continue to violently block the free expression of non-radical leftists, any number of things can go wrong. And whatever happens, the mainstream media will take pains to portray non-leftists as the real instigators.

Unless non-radicals can devise a way to tame Soros’ radical instigators of violence in other ways than through counter-violence, sooner or later the conflict will generate chaotic hot spots of violence.

Soros’ Dark History

In his youth, Soros was a Nazi collaborator who assisted the Nazis in seizing Jewish properties to help finance Hitler’s war effort. [See 60 Minutes video] He learned his lessons well as a youth. Now, he and his cohorts would think nothing of destroying everything you own and hold dear, as long as it suits their ultimate goals.

The US Constitution Is a Thorn in Soros’ Side

From its birth, the US experienced unprecedented growth. From its beginning as a ragtag bunch of deeply indebted colonies, the US emerged as wealthiest nation on Earth — in a mere 100 years. More astoundingly, that 100 years was interrupted by one of the bloodiest and costliest civils wars in history — and yet thanks to its incredible constitution, the US emerged from that century as the wealthiest and most productive nation on Earth.

The nation has occupied that position at the top of the heap for the past 135 years and shows no sign of change, according to the best and most comprehensive analyses.

But George Soros and his co-conspirators do not want the US to prosper, if it means that the world’s sole superpower will continue to serve as an island of opportunity in a tyrannical world (see China, Russia, Islamic nations, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, etc.).

The US allows individuals to start with virtually nothing, and rise to the pinnacles of wealth and power. Such a wealth of opportunity and turbulent turnover of power is a grave threat to persons who want to permanently wield ultimate power on the world stage.

It was a horrid shock to Soros to wake up and find that Trump was President-Elect of the most powerful nation on Earth — the nation that Soros was so close to taming to his will. And so Soros is driven to extremes, to utilise “any means necessary” in the attempt to put the US back on the path of decline which Obama had so admirably followed during his tenure.

Watch carefully, and be prepared for the changes — which may come quickly and violently.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

Posted in Groupthink, Ideology, Politics | Tagged ,

“Chinese [and World] Financial Flaws Leading to War”

War is Coming

Discussion of China’s multi-faceted predicament begins near the 33 minute mark in the video below. The speaker anticipates a cascading war encompassing most regions of the globe as a result of economic constraints in China (poor supply lines), Russia (corruption, low oil prices, overreaching neoimperialist ambitions), and the Middle East (violent religious sectarianism).

Peter Zeihan on "The New President & the World: Challenges & Opportunities" from McConnell Center on Vimeo.

Chinese officials are grappling with an epic Credit Bubble and the resulting greatest expansion of finance in history… The Chinese crisis would spur global “Risk Off” – de-risking, de-leveraging dynamics that I would expect to be particularly problematic for Europe and EM __ Source

A cascading collapse of financial systems that would make 2008 look like an economic golden age, is lurking in the shadows of the ghost cities of China, and in the hopeless corruption of Brasil, Russia, South Africa, and India. After the collapse of oil prices, the BRICS have been the last great hope of global investors looking for reliable high yields. But playing with fire can get a little boy’s fingers burnt.

A bursting Bubble would rather quickly see a crisis of confidence throughout China’s opaque financial system, certainly including “shadow banking” and “repo” finance more generally. I would expect collapsing real estate prices and economic dislocation to spur capital flight. There would be enormous pressure to unwind “carry trades,” greatly pressuring the Chinese currency. A collapsing currency would further impair Chinese borrowers, especially those (banks) exposed to dollar-denominated debt. Chinese officials would see no alternative than to impose strict capital control. __ Doug Noland

Credit Bubble [Fuels] Epic Malinvestment, Asset Bubbles, Fraud and Deep Financial and Economic Structural Impairment __ Doug Noland

China’s Dirty Secret I
China’s Dirty Secret II
China’s Dirty Secret III

How the Global Bubble Bursts:

The Chinese crisis would spur global “Risk Off” – de-risking, de-leveraging dynamics that I would expect to be particularly problematic for Europe and EM [emerging markets].

A “Risk Off” spike in European periphery yields and a widening of spreads would be a major issue for the thinly capitalized European banks. And with the European banking organizations having become such major players in derivatives, securities finance and EM, a crisis of confidence in European finance would quickly become a systemic issue globally. __ Credit Bubble Bulletin

The US Economy Stutters Under Obama

After using its economic and industrial might to help save the globe three times during the 20th century (WWI, WWII, Cold War), the US under Bush II and Obama has taken a break from rational economic behaviour. Corrupt handouts to the military industrial complex under Bush and Obama, and corrupt handouts to green billionaires and leftist activist groups under Obama, depleted the treasury without measurable benefit to taxpayers.

Under these two ne’er do well 21st century presidents, the US simultaneously built a massive national debt and ironically at the same time has built a monstrous latent economic potential. High taxes, crippling regulations, dysfunctional mandates, and wasteful spending have all conspired to prevent the natural economic dynamo of North America from functioning as it could. If those artificial restraints can be removed, latent North American economic potential can be unleashed — with the rest of the world a significant beneficiary once again.

Obama’s Rapid Doubling of US Debt Paralysed US Economic Plans and Developments

Most recently, Obama drove the US sovereign debt from under $10 trillion to roughly $20 trillion over a very short time period. The magnitude of the debt is unprecedented — and the rapidity with which it was acquired is stunning — which causes planners of every economic philosophy to pause before proposing solid and well-defined economic plans. Dysfunctional government debt sucks the vitality out of the US financial system, creating a huge debt without creating a corresponding benefit.

There is no painless way of dealing with a debt of this magnitude, but it should be clear to any student of economic history that over the long term, economic growth is the only viable approach which does not include default. Austerity will never erase this debt — not while US entitlement spending continues its exponential rise.

The only viable pathway out of this trap is to unleash the latent economic potential of US citizens and economic entities, by slashing taxes, destroying dysfunctional regulations, downsizing government spending, and obliterating destructive policies such as giga-tort.

Few if any of these vital reforms will be accomplished, due to the reigning idiocracy within the media, government bureaucracy, much of congress, and much of the judiciary and legal system (including torts). This means that the maximum benefit must be extracted from the minimal reforms which can be enacted. This will buy some time for building parallel infrastructure.

Besides the US, no other nation at this time has the potential to reverse its self-destruction, and to create a solid foundation for a global economic resurgence through trade, investment, and by example. Emerging nations such as the BRICS have always been a false hope, due to the corruption and unsound structures at the root of their economies. Under sound governments, Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Brasil might generate a large swelling of positive economic activity and innovation. But they all lack the heft which is needed.

Transparency in Corruption Rankings


The stagnation that is Russia’s economy:

Russians now recognize that however hard they work, most of them will be poor at the end (, more than a quarter of the Russian unemployed have been out of work for more than a year (, there are massive wage arrears in the construction industry in Moscow now (, 70 percent of Russia’s middle class has had to cut its spending since 2014 ( /после-2014-го-экономить-стали-70-российског/), and retail trade continues to fall throughout the country ( __

Posted in China, Economics | Tagged | 5 Comments

US Murder Map: Looking for Visual Correlations

US Murder Map 2014

Murders in US by County 2014

Most of the murders in the US are committed within a particular set of locations. The map above helps to highlight the US counties where most homicides take place.

In 2014, the most recent year that a county level breakdown is available, 54% of counties (with 11% of the population) have no murders. 69% of counties have no more than one murder, and about 20% of the population. These counties account for only 4% of all murders in the country.

The worst 1% of counties have 19% of the population and 37% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 47% of the population and account for 68% of murders. As shown in figure 2, over half of murders occurred in only 2% of counties. __

Murders Concentrate in Most Dangerous Counties

Is There Anything Special About These Murder Magnets?

As you would expect, most murders are committed where most people live — in cities. But not all cities are the same. Cities with neighborhoods that contain more members of particular ethnic groups tend to have higher murder rates. We observe this phenomenon in cities such as Detroit, St. Louis, Baltimore, Birmingham, Miami, New Orleans, and several other US cities (within counties) with particularly high murder rates.

Oddly enough, when one compares US county maps, one may find a visual correlation between counties that voted for former US President Obama in 2012, and counties with high crime rates in 2014 (see map at top above).

Obama Counties in 2012
More Information

Roughly 95% of inner city urban residents voted for Obama. In fact, a large number of dead, senile, and felonious urban residents voted for Obama as well, due to the tight control of many urban precincts held by Obama loyalists and true believers. In politics, operators do what is necessary to win.

Consider again the crime : politics correlation when viewing this 3D map of urban participation in the 2012 election:

Corruption, Crime, Cheating at the Polls

Voter fraud within the large cities of swing states in the 2012 election probably explains why Barack Obama was allowed to serve a second term.

If anybody has been reading the news lately, there has been some gradually disturbing news coming out about voting fraud in the Presidential Election. In critical swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois there are a lot of precincts in Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Chicago which reported 100% of their votes cast for Obama. These add up to many 10’s of thousands of votes for Obama and 0 for Romney. I repeat, 0 for Romney. I have read a number of articles about this and people knowlegable in Political Science and Statistics are starting to take notice of this.Statistically, even if among 10’s of thousands of voters all wanted to vote fo Obama, it would not be possible to receive 100% of the vote because at least a few would make a mistake and vote incorrectly for Romney. Not to mention the fact that a least a few of those 10’s of thousands might actually disagree with Obama. These types of election returns are only seen in countries run by dictators. I do not understand why this is not getting more attention. _Comment at NBC Chicago… Quoted at Abu Al Fin

Inner cities with high crime rates are often virtual “no-go” zones for police. A lot of murder tends to be done there. It is easy for voting precincts within such insulated “no-go” zones to do whatever they wish when it comes to registration of voters and counting the votes. Particularly when they receive a wind-wink, nod-nod, from city hall and often state leadership and national powers. A recent preliminary audit of voting machines in Detroit precincts for the 2016 elections demonstrated that 37% of Detroit precincts registered “more votes than they should have.” Such investigations of such precincts are never carried too far — for fear of what might be discovered. Follow the money and the power too deeply, and you are likely to get yourself into trouble.

What one sees in Detroit can also be seen in Chicago, Baltimore, Philly, DC, LA, Oakland, Tulsa, Memphis, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and other cities containing neighborhoods with high numbers of people who are of particular cultures and of particular political persuasions. Lots of crime — including murders. Questionable polling results. Corruption at all levels that never quits.

And remember that much evidence points to millions of illegal votes having been cast in the most recent US election, mostly in states that border with Mexico.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

The Trump administration can make some progress against this violence : corruption axis by defunding particular programs which Obama used to channel $billions into left wing activist organisations. Obama also packed much of the federal bureaucracy with “sleeper” radicals, whose job it is to obstruct any reforms that might clean up the murder : corruption axis that served Obama and his extended cause so well. Trump must meticulously attempt to remove as many of these vile disruptors as possible. But this level of rot cannot be fixed through normal channels of political reform.

One area where Trump has achieved some success is by slowing the cross-border infiltration of illegals by land. This has been achieved simply by beginning to once again enforce laws which are already on the books, but which had been studiously ignored by highly placed Obama officials.

Keep in mind that a nation is only as good as its human substrate, combined with its rule of law and system of economic trade. On the international front, dysgenic procreation is the rule, and overwhelms virtually all other procreation in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. This erosion of the human substrate is somewhat less severe in Europe and the Anglosphere — but as you can see for the US, it has deep roots within particular parts of the country, and tends to spread outward over time.

Solutions are Complex and Tentative

For now, it is best to follow conventional lines of redress, using the laws that work, while attempting to re-write laws that obstruct a more expansive and abundant human future. A focus on enforcement of useful laws is likewise warranted. More rational, future-oriented attorneys and judges in high places are likewise needed, along with high quality law enforcement personnel.

Most of all, Europe and the Anglosphere need many more Dangerous Children: competent, strong, clever, wise, and experienced.


More: Racial hatred breeds a large crop of violent predators:

Recently in Sacramento

Raping and Killing Old Women

‘Who would think that somebody in their right mind would wake up in the morning and say “I’m going to harm people” – that’s just not normal.

‘She was just a very sweet person, she was friendly and was always smiling and waving.’


Fusako Petrus, Murder Victim

Particular population groups too often feel entitled to brutalise members of other population groups. If anyone objects to this brutal behaviour, members of such innately violent populations think nothing of killing the person who gets in their way. It is considered an entitlement — a type of reparations. The right to murder, rape, and brutalise. Any society which tolerates such obscene entrenchment of violent attitudes is a society in rapid decline. (See Sweden, France, California, etc.)

“I Hate White People”: Kills 3

Kori Ali Muhammad above killed 3 random white men to make the point that he hates white people. He admitted his crimes to police along with his motive.

Throughout history, most societies would have summarily executed both Muhammad and Butler (above) for their crimes. Western societies have thought themselves beyond such harsh and definitive methods of ending a violent criminal’s career. But the emergence of primitive third world tribalist motivations for crime is exposing the ineffectiveness of modern methods of jurisprudence in an increasingly third world setting. Third world punishments for third world crimes may be in order in such cases.

Posted in Crime, Idiocracy, Politics | Tagged ,

Good, Bad, and Ugly in Putin’s Russia

Incomes are up, but only because government workers’ wages are rising so fast. Bank deposits and the national reserve fund are at their lowest. “… missile factories are almost at a standstill because of shortages of parts and problems with existing systems (… ” and recruitment into the Russian military is stalling.

Russians Drinking More than Ever, Putin “Burns in Hell”

“Putin at Last Judgment” Church Fresco
Source via Baker’s Dozen

Although Moscow claims that Russians are drinking less…, experts say that in reality, Russians are drinking far more alcohol, as much as 30 liters a year, if one includes not only samogon but increasingly dangerous surrogates, thus exacerbating what is already the most serious national alcohol problem in the world (, and [and] ( __ via Baker’s Dozen

Moscow Cannot Afford a Blue Water Navy

Sergey Shoygu, Russia’s defense minister, says that Moscow will still build submarines – a giant one was launched this week – and will recondition its only aircraft carrier – despite rising costs – but will build frigates rather than larger ships, [implying] that Moscow can no longer afford large surface ships for a blue water navy.

In reporting Shoygu’s assertion that the Russia’s main task is to attack coastal targets, Vzglyad journalist Andrey Rezchikov says that according to experts with whom he spoke, the minister’s words mean that “Russia can no longer permit itself an oceanic fleet” consisting of large surface vessels as in Soviet times (

… Russia is no longer planning to field a fleet as powerful as the American one and instead is focusing on coastal defense and those tasks that smaller ships can perform. __ Window on Eurasia

Russia cannot afford to build and maintain a working blue ocean fleet — for many reasons. Just maintaining a brown water fleet for local defence will stretch the limits of Russia today.

The Economy Supports Everything Else

Russia went completely off the rails when Putin chose to invade Ukraine at the same time as global oil prices were dropping. Putin’s war calculations were based on much higher oil & gas prices. In addition, Putin did not expect a unified western reaction to his aggressive actions in Ukraine, so he was taken by surprise when western economic sanctions began taking a bite out of Russia’s ability to obtain high tech western equipment and expertise.

As Russia’s economy suffered, so did its ability to support medical care, education, and other critical infrastructures such as transportation, housing, and energy infrastructures. To top it off, Russia’s military systems had become dependent upon technologies and expertise that Russia no longer possesses. Under the sanctions regime, it became more difficult for Russia to modernise its Soviet-era military.

The ongoing truckers’ strike is another sign of deep problems in Russian infrastructure.

Russia’s Demographic and Economic Crises Feed Off Each Other

As the old guard quickly ages and dies, Russia’s new guard is finding it more and more difficult to maintain all the structures of governance and modern life which they are inheriting from a wealthier, more motivated, and more powerful past. They are making a brave show of it, but the will is more anemic and the heart is growing smaller under the personality cult of Putin.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Military, Russia | Tagged | 5 Comments

Why are Today’s Young So Juvenile?

Update: The fantasies of today’s young speak ill of their upbringing and education.

Shouldn’t These 20 Something Adolescents Be Doing Something Besides Denying Someone Else’s Free Speech Rights?

Earlier generations took on responsibility at young ages. Benjamin Franklin left school and began his working career at age 10. His writing career began at age 12 while apprenticed at a printing shop owned by his brother. More

According to prize-winning educator John Taylor Gatto and historian Joseph F. Kett, most men of earlier generations gained their competencies and skills through leaving home for early work and apprenticeships. Sometimes they would run away to sea. Often they would work as apprentices, journeymen, and often masters, before reaching early independent adulthood.

Such early independence of the young was somehow offensive to university scholars and professors, who felt that no one should achieve success without first having come under their influence. These scholars and their associates in government, media, and activist groups worked hard to place the yoke of mandatory extended formal education onto the necks of the young. These crusaders of incompetence compounded their errors by making all forms of profitable work illegal for children under a certain age. Their crowning error was to price entry-level employment above what the market would pay, for most inexperienced and unskilled youth. From that point on, society had doomed itself to successive generations of increasing incompetence and immaturity. Today’s college debt crisis and permanent underemployment of youth and college graduates is only a sign of the crumbling human infrastructure.

From Martin van Creveld’s website 20March2017 (via Fabius Maximus):

At fifteen, my grandfather left home and became an apprentice to a chicken-feed dealer (later he worked himself up until he became a very rich man, but that is beside the point). My father and I both happened to leave home at eighteen. Fast move forward. In the US between 2000 and 2011, the number of women aged 25-34 who lived with their parents went from 8.3 to 9.7%. The corresponding figures for men were 12.9 and 18.6%, a vast increase indeed. These changes have been accompanied by others, such as allowing people up to 26 years of age to join their parents’ health insurance (in the US, under Obamacare) and extending the licenses of “child psychologists” so as to enable them to treat 25-year olds (in Britain).

Crowning the process is the rise in the age at which people have their first child, which is now the highest in history. Even so, the above figures only form the tip of the iceberg. They are the last—for the time being, at any rate — stages in a process of compulsory infantilization that, in all Western countries, has been going on ever since the industrial revolution. __ Martin van Creveld (via Fabius Maximus)

More details on this worrying demographic trend from a US Census Bureau report

Young people are taking decades longer to reach “adulthood” and independence — and to have their first child. In fact, if young women take much longer to begin having their first child, it will be too late altogether, since the biological alarm clock will brook no argument from the psychologically immature.

Al Fin Has Been Looking at This Issue for Over 10 Years

Under blog categories such as “academic lobotomy” or “psychological neoteny,” we at the Al Fin Institutes have watched generations of American youth become progressively infantilised and brainwashed into a helpless dependency that mocks the ambition and competency of earlier generations who built the world of plenty which these perpetual adolescents are now squandering. (To read these articles from the original Al Fin blog — which is being blocked by Google — run searches on the terms above, then click on the arrow next to the article link provided. Choose “cached,” “cached page,” etc. Use any search engine except Google, or try the Wayback Machine at

When you combine psychological neoteny, academic lobotomy, and runaway narcissism, today’s university student has hardly a chance to learn to think for him/herself, and mature into an independent person of solid judgment. It is a shame to lose an entire generation. But if members of the public–including parents and financial supporters of academia–can wise up at last, intellectual freedom may be allowed back on campus. __ Al Fin (original blog) (Don’t forget to use “cached page” or Wayback Machine)

On top of it all, growing numbers of university graduates and dropouts are taking on large life-postponing debts which they will never succeed in repaying. And so they pile failure upon failure. This is no way to begin a life — helplessly incompetent and indebted at 25, 30, or older.

Too Many of Today’s Youth are Mired in Groupthink and Lifelong Incompetence

At one time, university was a place where youth were exposed to a wide range of philosophies and perspectives. By weighing the merits and problems of different points of view, youth and young adults learned to think for themselves, to find their own way. But things are different now. Today’s university is a place where youth are given politically correct brain implants and lobotomies, where overgrown perpetual adolescents go to hide from uncomfortable points of view in “safe spaces.” These wilting flowers are in no position to face a world of mechanisms that loom far outside their fantasies, experiences and competence.

But as they say in the old song, “They’ll turn us all into beggars ’cause they’re easier to please.”

Give a man a free house and he’ll bust out the windows
Put his family on food stamps, now he’s a big spender
no food on the table and the bills ain’t paid
‘Cause he spent it on cigarettes and P.G.A.
They’ll turn us all into beggars ’cause they’re easier to please
__ Rainmakers Government Cheese lyrics

If young people do not learn self competence, self teaching, and independent planning and ambition, they will be at the mercy of the social engineers who will throw them in the blender and set it on “High.”

Educated Echo Choirs of the Politically Correct

If you are ever in doubt as to what politically correct people should be thinking today, just tune in to mainstream sources of daily talking points, such as the mainstream news, trendy commentary, and nighttime comedy talk shows. Shaping of opinions and group mind management are the order of the day — on campus, in the media, in $billion dollar foundations and activist juggernauts, and in bloated government bureaucracies stuffed with career radicals dedicated to breaking any independent mind or enterprise. This is the world that results from the infantilising of youth and young adults, generation after generation.

Today’s young adult understands that he must not question the climate apocalypse cult, or else he will lose his job or be denied tenure. The lifelong brain-conditioned university graduate understand that he must never allow his mind to be open to heresies such as human biological diversity. Opening the mind to such things invites a banishment to outer darkness which may never be revoked. And never must he consider that some physical and psychological differences between men and women may actually be innate, rather than socially conditioned.

It is a progressive mess that can only grow worse with time unless a radical increase in openness to philosophical diversity is introduced at all levels of education, government, media, foundations, activist lobbies, and other important social institutions that influence the development, education, upbringing, and career opportunities for the young.

Joseph F. Kett’s Rites of Passage

John Taylor Gatto’s Underground History of American Education

Infantilization by Martin van Creveld

Fabius Maximus analysis of van Creveld’s short essay More: From comments in the Fabius Maximus link —

Many millennials are in effect priced out of becoming adults, if they have any reason they know they can not have a family in their situation, nor ability to learn the ropes of adulthood through managing a household. Apathy has paradoxically become a political tool as it amasses more drop out millennials who are not interested in fixing the system but subconsciously or consciously interested in facilitating its failure and perhaps hoping to find better opportunities in its descent.

Learn about The Dangerous Child blog and the alternatives it reveals

Posted in Childhood Development, Competence, Dangerous Child, Demographics, Everything You Think You Know Just Ain't So, Groupthink, University | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Making Your Home Self Sufficient in Power and Heat

Making Your Own Heat and Electricity In Any Climate or Location

Suddenly it is becoming possible to make all the electricity and heat for your home that you could need — no matter your latitude or weather conditions. Using “micro steam turbines” — or residential fuel cells — single residencies, condominiums, or communities can efficiently produce plentiful heat and power, in even the coldest, cloudiest, and most windless locations.

While the conventional method of producing usable heat and power separately has a typical combined efficiency of 45 percent, CHP [combined heat and power] systems can operate at levels as high as 80 percent. __

Combining Heat and Power Generation Boosts Efficiency

Residential Fuel Cell CHP

The Japanese have been pioneering residential fuel cell combined heat and power for decades. One Japanese program, Ene-Farm, has installed over 120,000 residential fuel cell units. Panasonic is claiming 95% efficiency for combined heat and electricity production, and is now expanding into Europe — with ambitions to move into the Korean and North American markets. The current Japanese residential fuel cell units run mostly on methane, but plans for units using other fuels, including hydrogen fuel cell CHP, are in the works.

Micro Steam Turbine CHP

In the US, combined heat and power [CHP] — often called cogeneration — comes mostly in the form of internal combustion engines, including gas turbines, steam turbines, combined gas cycle and steam cycle systems, piston engine systems, and an assortment of other approaches including fuel cells. Most of these systems are used for industrial plants, hospitals, large campuses, and sometimes for large apartment developments and isolated communities.

Micro steam turbines are becoming small enough and efficient enough to begin entering the residential CHP market.

About half the homes in the United States are heated by natural gas, so the market potential is strong. Comparable units in Europe are selling for two or three times the cost of a standard hot water boiler; Cocuzza’s challenge is to be able to price his unit for significantly less. If Enviro Power can make the price low enough that one of its mCHPs will pay for itself through energy savings within three years, Cocuzza believes he’ll succeed

Enviro Power has a patent for a 10-kilowatt microcogeneration unit (mCHP) and is seeking financing to bring the product to market. Its mCHP uses a micro steam turbine, powered by propane or natural gas, to produce both heat and electricity. The company claims this cuts electricity consumption by up to 30 percent, reducing greenhouse gases and saving money. In addition, larger cogeneration units use an internal combustion engine that needs maintenance, while Cocuzza expects that a micro steam turbine engine will be maintenance free for 10 years. __ IEEE

One of EnviroPower’s competitors in residential CHP It is not a micro steam turbine (it appears to be a Sterling engine), but is said to be quite reliable.

Both Forms of Residential CHP Above are Still Expensive

The goal of manufacturers is to produce residential CHP units that will pay for themselves in energy savings within 3 to 5 years. At this time, the breakeven time is closer to 10 years in Japan for fuel cell CHP. That is probably not good enough for most people, since the lifetime of such units will probably not be much longer than that at best. But the technology is improving, and the underlying concept is far sounder than the rationale behind home wind and solar, for most modern homes and locations.

Micro CHP is still more practical for small co-ops and condos than for single residences, due to “economies of scale”.

How CHP can work with microgrids:

Making a case for microgrids is intrinsically making a case for locally-fired natural gas that simultaneously generates thermal energy, according to the researchers… small microgrids rely on relatively less gas… gas generators are still the favorite to provide electric and thermal energy [for microgrids].

General overview of the CHP market

Europe is currently the leading regional market for combined heat and power installation with the region accounting for 67.96% share in the overall market in 2014. The abundance of natural gas sources has contributed to the increased installation of CHP systems in the region. Countries such as Belgium, Russia, Poland, Germany, Italy, and Netherlands are major contributors to the Europe CHP installation market.

… The global market for CHP installation can be broadly divided into large-scale CHPs and micro-and small scale CHPs in terms of type. Large-scale CHPs is the leading segment with the segment accounting for 85.69% of the overall market in 2014. However, the segment is expected to lose a substantial portion of its market share to micro and small-scale CHPs over the coming years. Nevertheless, with increasing energy saving needs in emerging economies such as India and China, the uptake of large-scale CHPs is on the rise.

Off-grid solar only makes sense if you live in a dry zone in low to mid latitudes… Even so, you can sometimes have several days and sometimes weeks of heavy clouds which will deplete your system. And those solar cells need to be wiped clean on a regular basis. To depend on off-grid wind, you would need to live somewhere that winds blow reliably. And again, there will always be days and weeks of low to no wind, when your batteries will go dead without a backup generator — which are far from efficient.

Methane and propane always work, regardless of the weather. Cogeneration systems such as the ones we looked at above provide twice the efficiency of conventional backup generators.

A Home Nuclear Plant Would be Best

Meanwhile, nuclear scientists and engineers are busy at work developing smaller, safer, and more efficient CHP nuclear reactors and nuclear batteries. Such systems could conceivably provide up to 50 years of reliable power and heat between refuelings. And the energy density of nuclear fuels are second to none.

Energy Density Comparison from Wikipedia
Fusion, Fission Orders of Magnitude Better than Chemical and Other Energy Sources

If you are planning to survive a coming ice age, nuclear cogeneration of power and heat is probably your best bet.

Posted in Electrical Power Grid, Energy, Survival Prepping, Technology | Tagged ,

Russia’s “China Threat Syndrome”

Concerns over China’s rising military might and armed border clashes with China have become stronger. The military balance has been seen to move irrevocably in China’s favor, and this perception increased more from 2005 to 2013 than from 2000 to 2005.

Balance of Power Shifts to China

Russians worry about China’s long-run plans. Beijing already plays a dominant economic role in Central Asia, which the Kremlin views as within Russia’s sphere of interest. And concerns about Chinese influence in Siberia and the Russian far east, both in terms of economic impact and migration flows, are widespread in Russia.

Yet Russia has failed to connect its long-run concern about Chinese power with a coherent diplomatic strategy in Asia designed to diversify its relationships. Better diplomatic ties with Japan could help Russia realize it has other options besides its relationship with Beijing. __

The Chinese are migrating into Russia to take jobs, similar to the way that Mexicans and Central Americans migrate into the US and Canada. As a result, Russian wages are not rising as they should under Russia’s current demographic slide. And the Chinese newcomers are not alone:

Given the country’s demographic outlook, Russia will be relying on migrants for years to come. Over the next 15 years, the working population will shrink by about 10 million, said Alexei Kudrin, who was finance minister in 2000-2011.

China, North Korea, Vietnam, Turkey and Serbia were the biggest suppliers of labor from outside the former Soviet republics in the last three months of 2016, according to the Federal Statistics Service.

While the Russians worry about inroads from China in Central Asia and the Far East, other more immediate concerns occupy their minds even more:

Russians consider their major problems (in this order); the economy, health care, corruption, education, unemployment and crime. Syria, Ukraine and NATO do not matter much to the average Russian. In addition most Russians indicated it was dangerous for an individual to openly discuss corruption. A third of Russians said they had paid a bribe at least once. Putin can blame whoever he wants but most Russians just want the economy fixed and that requires cleaning up the corruption. The new Cold War does not seem very relevant to all this. __ Russian Military Technology Falls Down on the Job

Putin focuses on what he considers most important: his own hold on power. But what is good for Putin is not necessarily good for Russia — especially in the long run. Putin’s wasteful and counterproductive adventures in Syria, Ukraine, and other nations in East Europe and the Caucasus, have diverted Russia’s resources from the things most important to the Russian people: the economy, healthcare, corruption, education, unemployment, and crime.

And under the blackout, Russia’s infrastructures for transportation, oil and gas production and transport, electric power transmission, clean water supplies, and regional security are crumbling. Corruption weakens Russian industry and commerce, even in the Russian weapons and rocketry sectors. Innovation suffers badly as a result, leading to the need for Russia to pose as a much stronger world power than it actually is — just as in the first cold war.

The “hopeful” demographic numbers trumpeted by Russian national media obscure a more worrying reality about Russia’s demographics: The overall population cannot be prevented from dropping, even with rapid immigration. This is because the number of Russian women of child-bearing age will soon “drop off a cliff,” falling by roughly 50% over 10 years. The same drop in Russia’s males will be felt as a rapid loss in working-age and military-age males.

In an interview posted by yesterday, Anatoly Antonov notes that fertility rates in Russia stood at 1.2 children per woman in 1992, rose to 1.4 in 2007-2008, and now stand at “approximately 1.6.” That has given rise to much optimism, but that optimism is misplaced.

On the one hand, he points out, if the current level were to be maintained, that would mean that the country’s population would be only half the size it is now in half a century. And on the other, if it falls back toward a level of 1.1 as current trends suggest, that halving of the country’s population will take only 25 years.

What makes these conclusions worth noting is that they come from a scholar who has long been identified as a Russian nationalist… __ Source

According to Russian demographers such as Antonov above, Russia’s population could be cut in half between now and the year 2070. An increase in Chinese immigrants and Muslim immigrants could slow the decline in overall population, while radically changing the nature of the Russian population itself. The map below is a whimsical representation of what could happen with uncontrolled Chinese immigration into Siberia.

Unfortunately for Russia, Putin picked the wrong time to pursue neo-imperialism, and alienate the wealthier and more advanced western world. The Russian “alliance” with China is a precarious one, liable to leave Russia in an even weaker and more dependent state than at present. Certainly fellow neo-imperialist Xi will never tolerate a close neighbor who retains the ability to instantly wipe out all of China’s population centres with the touch of a button.

Things are never how they seem. Everything you are told is a lie. Whatever you think you know, just ain’t so. That is the beginning of understanding.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

A perfect symbol of Chinese-Russian cooperation is provided by a half-built bridge between the two countries. As a picture of the site shows, China has finished its half of the bridge, but the Russians have done nothing but create a tent city on the Russian side of the border (



Blocked projects on the Russia China axis

To the inner circle only Moscow counts.
This is a key point, since an increasing number of observers are beginning to notice that money comes into Moscow from the resource-rich periphery, but the benefits seem to remain in Moscow. Already diverse parts of the empire are acquiring independent traits of behaviour which should scare Moscow insiders — if they were paying attention.

Russian infrastructure phantoms

The Russian state is highly criminalised, and the interpenetration of the criminal ‘underworld’ and the political ‘upperworld’ has led the regime to use criminals from time to time as instruments of its rule.

Another Putin critic dies a violent death

Posted in Russia | Tagged

“After I started taking testosterone, I became interested in science… “

Can Testosterone Really do That?

Normal testosterone levels for men: 300 to 1000 ng/dl
Normal testosterone levels for women: 30 to 95 ng/dl

From the Archives of “This American Life” Radio Show:

Testosterone Gives a Man a Mind to Think With

When you have no testosterone, you have no desire. And when you have no desire, you don’t have any content in your mind. You don’t think about anything. __ Testosterone: This American Life

Due to medical reasons, the man quoted above suddenly lost the ability to make testosterone. What happened to his mind when he lost testosterone? Nothing good.

Multiple Impacts of Testosterone
Image Source
More on Testosterone

… I was not behaving at all. I was, when I was awake, literally sitting in bed and staring at the wall with neither interest nor disinterest for three, four hours at a time. If you’d had a camera in the room, you would have thought I was comatose.

… People who are deprived of testosterone don’t become Spock-like and incredibly rational. They become nonsensical because they’re unable to distinguish between what is and isn’t interesting, and what is worth noting and what isn’t.

What Happens When Testosterone is Boosted Through the Roof?

Next we look at the experience of someone who was born female, but chose to transform herself into a “he,” using massive doses of testosterone. How did “his” experience of life transform? How did “his” mind change?

The most overwhelming feeling is the incredible increase in libido and change in the way that I perceived women and the way I thought about sex.

… I remember walking up Fifth Avenue, and there was a woman walking in front of me. And she was wearing this little skirt and this little top. And I was looking at her ass. And I kept saying to myself, don’t look at it. Don’t look at it. And I kept looking at it.

And I walked past her. And this voice in my head kept saying, turn around to look at her breasts. Turn around. Turn around. Turn around. And my feminist, female background kept saying, don’t you dare, you pig. Don’t turn around. And I fought myself for a whole block, and then I turned around and checked her out. __ Testosterone: This American Life archives

Beyond the predictable boost to libido, “he” also became interested in different things:

Something that happened after I started taking testosterone, I became interested in science. I was never interested in science before… I found myself understanding physics in a way I never had before.

Here is an interesting anecdote along these lines from Instapundit’s Glenn Reynolds:

It’s funny, I was talking to a friend a while back who was very interested in math and science pre-puberty, but lost nearly all interest afterward, and she said, “when the estrogen came in, the science went out.” __ Source

Giving a woman testosterone can boost her ability to navigate, but it can also interfere with her language skills. The very structure of the brain is altered by changes in blood testosterone, estrogen, and progesterone. These changes in brain structure have very important effects in the real world, on a societal scale. Female students may find their maths abilities changing with their monthly menstrual cycles, as levels of estrogen and progesterone vary naturally.

Men earn most of the Nobel prizes in physics and chemistry, almost all Fields medals in mathematics, and occupy the elite levels of most professions that involve top-level spatial and mathematical skills. Men pioneer the conceptual underpinnings of the science and technology that make advanced societies possible.

Special Note: Testosterone Boosts Risk-Taking and Physical Courage

One of the shortest books you may find is “Great Female Explorers and Adventurers.” Most people know about Shackleton, Amundsen, Sir Richard Burton, Columbus, Magellan, Lindbergh, Humboldt, Marco Polo, Zheng He, Bering, Leif Ericson, Lewis and Clark, and several others. Almost all of the great explorers seem to have been men. But the physical courage that derives from testosterone does not just discover new worlds and break new conceptual ground. It also spurs men to take the risks that are necessary to run the modern world.

Rough, Dirty, and Often Dangerous Jobs Keep Your Boat Afloat

Advanced technological civilisations require a lot of construction and maintenance. Men have the strength and spatial/mechanical skills to get such vital work done. Most women have neither the physical strength required, nor the interest in doing such jobs. As is often said, “Women pick out wallpaper patterns. Men run the universe.” 😉 Just kidding.

These rough and dirty jobs are crucial for running critical infrastructures of advanced high technology societies. Given the influence of testosterone on strength, visual/mechanical skills, and physical courage, it makes sense for men to dominate these rough and vital occupations. But strangely, men also tend to dominate in music, art, literature — even fashion design!

A thorough reading of Charles Murray’s Human Accomplishment reveals that this disproportionate participation by males at the elite levels of discovery and mastery is not a new phenomenon. Not surprisingly, the huge difference in blood testosterone levels between average men (roughly 300 to 1000 ng/dl) and average women (30 to 95 ng/dl) is not a new phenomenon either.

With differences in testosterone levels so large between men and women, it would be very surprising not to find huge differences in male and female bodies and brains. And yet modern politically correct societies in Europe and the Anglosphere go about pretending that men and women should be the same! The contemporary “war against boys” that results from this basic mistake continues to cause untold hardship for individuals and large-scale damage to society at large.

Can testosterone really do all that? Not by itself, no. But when combined with good parenting, good genes, and plenty of healthy outlets for natural male enthusiasm, it can do all that and more.

Note: Before you decide to supplement your own testosterone levels, make sure that you actually need the boost.


One Likely Reason Why So Many US Men Voted for Trump

Moths to the flame: Testosterone drives men to seek the women most in demand. The train wrecks that often result are mostly predictable.


Science has never been so accessible to ordinary people. There is still a lot of low hanging fruit, if we use our resources to back our best people for the job regardless of sex or race. (Abolish affirmative discrimination)

With the right inventions, more of the planet’s land, oceans, and atmosphere become livable.

Posted in Biomedicine, Sex Differences, Testosterone | Tagged | 4 Comments

Drug Overdose Fatalities Soar: Are We Doomed?

US Drug Overdose Deaths Skyrocket During Obama and Bush Years

NIDA - National Overdose Deaths From all drugs
Drug overdoses above include deaths from alcohol overdose. Overdose deaths in the graph below are from opioids.
NIDA - National Overdose deaths from opioids

Images via Fabius Maximus

According to this source, deaths in Russia from drug overdoses and drug-related diseases exceed 100,000 per year. According to Russia’s Federal Drug Control Service, the rate of drug related deaths in Russia is 28.7 per 100,000. International health statistics sources typically cite Russia’s drug overdose fatality rate at only around 6 per 100,000 excluding alcohol. Excluding alcohol from Russia’s drug overdose toll places it closer to the US, Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, and several African countries in drug overdose fatality rates.

For example, compare (WHO) estimates for Russia’s Drug Use Deaths with WHO estimates for deaths from alcohol use in Russia. Neither estimate can be taken to the bank, but when taken as rough educated guesses they may be used for preliminary comparisons.

Why are Drug Overdose Deaths Rising in Russia, the US, Europe, and Other Countries?

Such a question is overly broad, and meaningful answers can only be given for the people of particular countries, over particular spans of time. Trying to answer the question for a single large and heterogeneous nation such as the US, is no simple task.

The “Philosophical Vacuum” Argument

In the US, the UK, and much of Europe, much of the problem is blamed on a general lack of purpose and meaning in life. Whenever a civilization — such as western civilization — experiences a deep and rapid shift in philosophical and ideological underpinnings, many of the moral and ethical anchors which had previously held persons’ behaviours within certain bounds tend to drop away and cease to function. In Europe and the Anglosphere, for example, the Christian religion now plays a much smaller part in the upbringing of children than it did a half century ago, and has virtually disappeared from the routine activities of most families.

Such a shift in moral and ethical foundations and infrastructure are likely to leave large parts of the population flailing without a direction or purpose in life. Mainstream cultures in Europe and the Anglosphere have provided nothing meaningful to fill the gap. Instead they seen to rely on an ideological indoctrination into politically correct beliefs and behaviours, openly shaming and punishing those who refuse to become sufficiently indoctrinated.

Can We Trust the Statistics Underlying This Alarming “Trend?”

Not completely. These days, even government statistical departments have become politicized, with much of the manpower being devoted to purposes which are little better than political propaganda. The US CDC has not proven itself to be above such corrupting influences, nor have any other US government agencies of note.

Anyone who is dependent upon “official” sources of information or is susceptible to the sway of mainstream celebrity opinion-shapers on the news and entertainment media, will be hopelessly lost when he tries to make sense of society-wide trends.

Wise persons begin by assessing and keeping track of what is happening with themselves and their own families, communities, and regions. With a firm grasp of such trends, they will be in a better position to judge what they are being told by national or international “authorities” about local and regional trends. If national “authorities” are making claims which contradict a person’s direct experience and knowledge, he is justified in questioning the sources and suspecting the motivation of the “authorities” making such claims.

To See More Clearly, Always Begin from a Skeptical and Contrarian Position

We have been programmed by our ephemeral electronic information world to be proxy-experience-and-outrage junkies. Our 15 second attention spans are exploited by information gatekeepers to give us the illusion of knowledge and a false sense of expertise. Large numbers of us cannot be separated from mainstream purveyors of bloody tragedy, scandal, and “the correct view of the world” long enough to get our bearings. Too often we allow our heartstrings to be plucked like a harp by dishonorable opportunists of the manipulating class, just for the schadenfreude of it all, to say nothing of the false sense of group wisdom and “safety in numbers.” By latching ourselves to our “authoritative” lightspeed information flows, we allow our view of the world to be warped out of any semblance to reality.

If, on the other hand, we refuse to allow our views of the world to be shaped by the celebrity opportunists on the news and entertainment media, we can have more time to experience the world on our own terms. With a more solid grasp of our particular worlds, we are less likely to be swayed onto destructive paths of behaviour and thinking.

This is not to say that skeptical contrarians are immune from drug and alcohol dependency. But they do tend to be immune from groupthink and herd mentalities, which can often lead to addictive behaviours in persons who are essentially empty, waiting to be filled by others who are ultimately just as clueless.

It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood. At the Institute, we have some very unconventional ways of dealing with dysfunctional habits. But that is for another day, and another blog.

Posted in Biomedicine, Epidemiology | Tagged | 6 Comments

There Is No Future Without Power

What Does Energy Suicide Look Like?

With the best of stated intentions, Germany is cutting its own throat. The unfolding disaster called Energiewende is slowly but surely destroying the foundations of Deutschland’s industrial base, thus destroying Germany’s economy in a way that cannot be easily or cheaply reversed.

According to Germany’s Enegiewende program, the share of renewables in electricity generation should reach 45 percent by 2030 and 100% by half century. Complicating matters is Germany’s Atomstop decision to close down its nuclear power plants under pressure from the powerful Green movement. __ Germany’s Slippery Green Slope

EROI Germany
Buffered Wind and Solar Cannot Pass the Threshold for Germany

Without massively expensive “buffering” or “backing up” by costly fossil fuel plants, wind and solar cannot power German residents, much less German industry. Germany’s large power utilities are already hurting, downsizing, laying off workers, and closing down power plants that Germany will need as it moves deeper into energy suicide. (see “Germany’s Slippery Green Slope” above)

And without expensive government financial supports and destructive mandates, investment in big wind and big solar is just another way to burn money, then run the ashes down the drain.

Germany wants to replace all of its reliable forms of electric power with unreliable forms of energy by the year 2050. But there are excellent reasons why unreliable sources of energy such as wind and solar cannot replace power-on-demand from coal, gas, and nuclear power plants.

More ambitious boosters of unreliable energy want to achieve 100% unreliable energy by 2030. But despite the hoopla, the numbers simply don’t add up. Wouldn’t it be wiser to watch Germany for another 15 years before committing ritual sepuku on the altar of self-righteous delusion?

The difference in costs of nuclear vs. “renewables” in the UK is instructive. Intelligent observers without an ideological axe to grind would quickly come to the conclusion that humans cannot afford to sacrifice themselves for the sake of a green ideology that offers nothing but poverty, misery, and death in return.

Money Returned on Investment
Wind and Solar Lose Money

More Atmospheric CO2 Boosts Global Vegetation

Commercial greenhouses pump CO2 into their controlled growing environments to boost plant growth and crop yields. And now scientists are slowly discovering that atmospheric CO2 is boosting the growth of crops, forests, shrubs, and other vegetation.

If CO2 was so terrible for the planet, then installing a CO2 generator in a greenhouse would kill the plants. But scientists and even governments actually recommend supplementing CO2 in greenhouses in order to boost plant growth and food production.

“The benefits of carbon dioxide supplementation on plant growth and production within the greenhouse environment have been well understood for many years,” says the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food.

1500 ppm CO2 Generators
Image Source

“CO2 increases productivity through improved plant growth and vigour. Some ways in which productivity is increased by CO2 include earlier flowering, higher fruit yields, reduced bud abortion in roses, improved stem strength and flower size. Growers should regard CO2 as a nutrient… increasing the CO2 level to 1,000 ppm will increase the photosynthesis by about 50% over ambient CO2 levels.”

In fact, as recent scientific studies have shown, the slight rise in CO2 levels of the atmosphere has actually helped re-green deserts and arid areas, accelerating the growth of trees, shrubs and grasses which produce the oxygen human needs to breathe. __ CO2 is Natural

Boosting greenhouse CO2 levels above 1,000 ppm causes crops to grow more quickly and vigorously. Not surprisingly, we are seeing the same phenomenon on a smaller scale as warmer oceans release more CO2 to the atmosphere.

Knowledge is the Antidote to Green Stupidity

Once we understand that small increases in atmospheric CO2 generate a negative feedback in the form of more biomass photosynthesis, we begin to see one of the small threads in the natural fabric of control over several different innate global cycles, including climate cycles.

If humans want to create an abundant and expansive future for themselves and their progeny, they will need abundant supplies of reliable and affordable energy. Over the long spans of time, that means that advanced forms of nuclear energy are absolutely vital to sustaining the future of the only intelligent class of creatures in the known universe. Green energy, on the other hand, is a form of national, societal, and civilisational suicide. And it is all for nothing, in the end. Germany’s CO2 production has risen, rather than fallen, and even so it makes no difference to long term climate trends either way.

Internationally, Coal is in Resurgence

Hydrocarbons such as natural gas, coal, oil etc. should be seen as stopgap forms of energy — bridges to a longer term future powered by newer advanced forms of nuclear power & heat. But stopgaps and bridges can be crucial for survival. And as we now know, small increases in atmospheric CO2 levels such as we have seen, are more beneficial than harmful.

China consumes as much coal as the rest of the world combined…

Natural gas prices are unlikely to remain this low for very long. $2.50/mmbtu is uneconomic in most of the shale plays and very uneconomic in the Gulf of Mexico, except on a cost-forward basis. When natural gas production and consumption come back into balance, it will probably be at a price of $3.50 to $5.00/mmbtu. Coal is very competitive with natural gas above $3.50/mmbtu… __ Coal Bounces Back

Committing to the Future Means Stepping Back from the Precipice

An abundant and expansive future demands massive supplies of affordable and reliable power and energy. Knowledgeable people understand that big wind and big solar can never supply the energy density that the future needs — no matter how much “storage” can be ginned up and concocted for the diffuse and ancient energy sources. No matter how successful he becomes in space, on energy, Elon Musk is just shining you on.

Energy Density Comparison from Wikipedia
Fusion, Fission Orders of Magnitude Better than Chemical and Other Energy Sources

Posted in coal, Electrical Power Grid, Energy, Future, Germany, Green Quagmire, Groupthink | Tagged , | 6 Comments

What if the Average Human IQ Were 200 Points?

The Average Human IQ is Now About 90 Points Worldwide

Normal IQ Distribution Modern European Population

You may think that the average human IQ is 100 points, by definition, but that is only true for particular populations, such as that of the UK. Globally, average IQ is about 90. As a consequence, living conditions in most nations of the world are primitive when compared with life for average persons in the advanced world — where average IQs are roughly 100.

We can observe the effects of a mere 10 point difference in average IQ between advanced nations such as the United States, and more primitive countries such as Mexico, merely by travelling between the two countries. If we consider the real world impacts of even larger average IQ differences — such as comparing Canada (average IQ 100) with Nigeria (average IQ 70) — the differences in living conditions are even more stark.

Economic Success Correlates With National Average IQ
More at VDare

But What Would a Society with an Average IQ of 200 Look Like?

Before we consider that question, let’s look at a scenario that may be easier to imagine:

“Suppose that in some future society, part of the population, say 10 percent, became hugely intelligent, while the rest stayed where we are now or even dropped behind a bit. What would that do to society?” __ Source

Fewer than 0.001% of humans in advanced societies have IQ’s close to 200. But what if 10% of populations in advanced nations had IQs between 190 and 210.

We understand that not all persons with high IQ are genius innovators, but we also know that most genius innovators have high IQs. If only 1 out of 10 of our “200 point IQ” population turned out to be genius innovators in various areas — physics, maths, engineering, biology, architecture, chemistry, robotics, machine intelligence, etc. — the impact on society would be profound. How profound? Difficult to say, but try to imagine the impact on a society if it suddenly found itself with 1000 times more high powered innovators than exist at the present.

Down to Earth: It is taxing enough to imagine the transformative effect of a society with just 10% of its population having an IQ near 200. It should therefore be obvious that none of us can imagine a world with an average human IQ of 200.

First We Should Ask What Causes IQ Differences?

Researcher Robert Plomin studies the impact of genes on human intelligence. Plomin has grown frustrated with the refusal of mainstream academia, media, government, and other social institutions to look carefully and honestly at this line of research. In the BBC interview at the link above, Plomin discusses his twin research on IQ among other lines of investigation.

In the video below, Plomin goes into somewhat more detail:

Brain Differences and IQ

Gene differences — genotypes — clearly play a role in IQ differences. But what about differences between brains — the phenotype? It happens that a useful new book has been published recently, which is worth a look.

New: “The Neuroscience of Intelligence” by Richard Haier

Neuroscientist Richard Haier has recently published The Neuroscience of Intelligence, in an attempt to understand and explain how the brain creates intelligent thought and behaviour. Haier seems to be quite good at summarising and explaining the relevant ideas surrounding the study of brain and intelligence.

Three laws govern this book: 1) No story about the brain is simple; 2) No one study is definitive; 3) It takes many years to sort out conflicting and inconsistent findings and establish a compelling weight of evidence. With these in mind, Chapter 1 aims to correct popular misinformation and summarizes how intelligence is defined and measured for scientific research. Some of the validity data will surprise you. For example, childhood IQ scores predict adult mortality. Chapter 2 reviews the overwhelming evidence that there are major genetic effects on intelligence and its development. Conclusive studies from quantitative and molecular genetics leave no doubt about this. Since genes always work through biological mechanisms, there must be a neurobiological basis for intelligence, even when there are environmental influences on those mechanisms. Genes do not work in a vacuum; they are expressed and function in an environment. This interaction is a theme of “epigenetics” and we will discuss its role in intelligence research.

Chapters 3 and 4 delve into neuroimaging and how these revolutionary technologies visualize intelligence in the brain, and indicate the neurobiological mechanisms involved. New twin studies of intelligence, for example, combine neuroimaging and DNA analyses. Key results show common genes for brain structure and intelligence. Chapter 5 focuses on enhancement. It begins with critiques of three widely publicized but incorrect claims about increasing IQ and ends with electrical brain stimulation. So far, there is no proven way to enhance intelligence but I explain why there is a strong possibility that manipulation of some genes and their biological processes may achieve dramatic increases. Imagine a moonshot-like national research effort to reach this goal; guess which nation apparently is making this commitment (it is not the United States).

Chapter 6 introduces several astonishing neuroscience methods for studying synapses, neurons, circuits, and networks that move intelligence research even deeper into the brain. Soon we might measure intelligence based on brain speed, and build intelligent machines based on how the brain actually works. Large collaborative efforts around the world are hunting intelligence genes, creating virtual brains, and mapping brain fingerprints unique to individuals—fingerprints that predict intelligence. Overlapping neuro-circuits for intelligence, consciousness, and creativity are explored. Finally, I introduce the terms “neuro-poverty” and “neuro-SES” (social-economic-status) and explain why neuroscience advances in intelligence research may inform education policies.

Personally, I believe we are entering a Golden Age of intelligence research that goes far beyond nearly extinct controversies about whether intelligence can be defined or measured and whether genes are involved. My enthusiasm about this field is intended to permeate every chapter. If you are an educator, policy maker, parent, or student you need to know what 21st century neuroscience says about intelligence. If any of you are drawn to a career in psychology or neuroscience and pursue the challenges of intelligence research, then that is quite a bonus.
__ The Neuroscience of Intelligence

More from Richard Haier:

Brain Imaging and IQ Video with Richard Haier, UC Irvine A nice overview.

Haier and Jung’s Parieto-Frontal Integration Theory of Intelligence PDF

Haier and Jung et al Neuroanatomy of Creativity Abstract

Can Humans Stop The Global Decline in Average IQ?

We would like to imagine a future of brighter, more innovative and conscientious humans. Unfortunately, rather than facing a future of more intelligent humans, we may well be facing a future of less intelligent humans — an Idiocracy. Human breeding populations with low IQs are reproducing much more quickly than human breeding populations with high IQs. One of the results of this differential breeding is a gradual drop in globaly average human IQ.

It has been widely observed that the birthrate of countries tends to fall as they become more wealthy. Most countries in Western Europe now have birthrates below the replacement rate; in the absence of immigration, their populations can be expected to fall in the future.

Putting these two pieces of information together, one might expect that since low IQ countries tend to be less wealthy, they should also be expected to have higher birthrates than countries with high IQ. If population IQ and wealth remain constant, the average IQ of the world should then fall over time, since a larger portion of population growth will occur in low IQ countries. __ Source

Smart Drugs May Offer a Partial Solution

Many people report experiencing feelings of euphoria within 30 to 60 seconds of taking NZT. Others have reported significantly increased memory – both in capacity and speed of recall – within the first 24 hours of taking their first dose of NZT. You will be able to digest vast amounts of information in a very short amount of time – a foreign language, for instance; you will be able to memorize not only a considerable amount of vocabulary but usage rules, idiomatics, phrases, sentences and situational expressions. __ The Fictional Drug NZT (from the movie “Limitless”)

It is easy to imagine the development of a drug such as the clear pill “NZT,” especially for those who have seen Limitless. It is not quite so easy to imagine the world that might follow, should such a pill become widely available.

It is important for persons who are concerned about these issues to learn more about how to think well, how to use the brain they have to its best advantage — and how to preserve as much of their brain’s capacity for as long as they can.

Physicist Stephen Hsu’s website, Information Processing, is a useful source of information and commentary for research on IQ.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. Every disruptive innovation has its dark side. Better get Dangerous.

Posted in Cognition, Human Brain, Idiocracy, IQ | Tagged | 7 Comments

Choose Your Future: Superhuman, or Superfluous Human?

“Relatively small changes in genes, hormones and neurons,” he points out, “were enough to transform Homo erectus — who could produce nothing more impressive than flint knives — into Homo sapiens, who produce spaceships and computers.” Why should we assume that Sapiens are the end of the evolutionary line? __ Yuval Noah Harari

Passing the Threshold
Becoming Gods?

Achieving Superhumanity

“Homo Deus,” or god-like humans, will soon be coming to cities near you, according to author and historian Yuval Noah Harari. By making a few small adjustments in gene expression, adding a few machine augments, and making some changes in dietary input and exercise training we can move ever closer to a superhuman, god-like state of existence.

Having subdued famine, pestilence and war, Harari argues, we can now train our sights on higher objectives. Eternal happiness. Everlasting life. “In seeking bliss and immortality,” he writes, “humans are in fact trying to upgrade themselves into gods.”

… A small, breakaway republic of superhumans and techno-elites will eventually split off from the rest of humanity. Those who acquire the skills and proprietary algorithms to re-engineer brains, bodies and minds — the main products of the 21st century, Harari suspects — will become gods; those who don’t will be rendered economically useless and die off. __ NYT Review of Homo Deus

As Always, Some Will be Left Behind

Hinging on Technology

It seems that not everyone can ride the train to godhood. Large numbers of humans will not even be able to reach the loading platform — the lower threshold for becoming proto-superhumans and demigods. For those unfortunate masses who cannot reach the starting line, a precarious future awaits.

In the 21st century we might witness the creation of a massive new unworking class: people devoid of any economic, political or even artistic value, who contribute nothing to the prosperity, power and glory of society. This “useless class” will not merely be unemployed — it will be unemployable.

… As algorithms push humans out of the job market, wealth and power might become concentrated in the hands of the tiny elite that owns the all-powerful algorithms, creating unprecedented social and political inequality.

… The coming technological bonanza will probably make it feasible to feed and support people even without any effort from their side. But what will keep them occupied and content? One answer might be drugs and computer games. Unnecessary people might spend increasing amounts of time within 3D virtual-reality worlds that would provide them with far more excitement and emotional engagement than the drab reality outside. __ Rise of the Useless

A future of virtual reality 3D immersive role-playing, complete with full body haptic sensations? All the drugs and virtual playtime you could want? To an average unemployed drop-out, it may sound pretty good. But if viewed from a god-like height, it probably sounds like a safe and affordable form of confinement and pacification for hopeless underachievers. But today’s hopeless underachiever is a different kettle of fish than the “superfluous people” that Harari is talking about.

Who are these “superfluous people” of the future that will ultimately be displaced by machine intelligences? Physicians, attorneys, top level executives, government decision makers, engineers, journalists, designers and innovators, manufacturers and industrialists, and workers in any other formerly human field of enterprise that had not already been replaced by earlier generations of technology. It sounds as if the boundary lines between god-like human and superfluous human may shift significantly upward over the next century.

Compare Today’s “Superhumans” to Those of Tomorrow

For an example of a modern superhuman, we might look at American football superstar Tom Brady, who after earning 5 superbowl rings is looking to play at least 7 more seasons past the age of 40. Brady follows a special diet, adheres to a strict training regimen, and undergoes frequent attitude boosts. He obviously has good genes for mind and body, and works hard to make the best of them.

Or take the US Navy Seals, bane of bin Laden and other nefarious villains who blight the planet Earth. What makes them so special? Again, they start with good genes, add lots of aggression and ambition, a solid training routine, and electromagnetic brain stimulation. Yes, you read correctly. At least some US Navy Seals are using Halo transcranial brain stimulating devices to augment their training.

The elements testing the technology include Naval Special Warfare Development Group, the unit known more popularly as SEAL Team Six. Other teams are also conducting tests, Salata said. He declined to confirm how many operators are participating in the testing, or to cite specific findings to date. But there have been positive outcomes so far, he said.

“Early results show promising signs,” he said. “Based on this, we are encouraged to continue and are moving forward with our studies.” __ Source

We know that many elite level managers and decision makers in government, research, and Fortune 500 companies utilise brain-boosting drugs and chemicals to allow them to perform at higher levels, for more hours in the day.

But the tweaks used by elite athletes, elite military units, and high level decision makers will be small change compared with the alterations that will be applied to elite humans on their way to becoming gods. The difference will not be merely quantitative. The new elites will be something entirely unprecedented. And this coming tsunami of the gods may represent the investment opportunity of a lifetime.

Investors searching for the next transformative technology destined to turn a bunch of Ivy League dropouts into billionaires, and half the market into a loose slot machine, need only look in the mirror.

“The greatest industry of the 21st century will probably be to upgrade human beings,” historian Yuval Harari, author of the fascinating new book “Homo Deus,” told MarketWatch. __ Marketwatch

Or perhaps not, if a successful investment means that half the people you care about — and possibly you yourself — will be rendered obsolete by the transformation unleashed.

It All Depends Upon How this Magic Carpet is Rolled Out

Country Income Groups

People in affluent nations will be affected more profoundly by the coming transformation to superfluity — or godhood, whatever the case may be — than most of the world’s billions.

Most humans on Earth are kept occupied by the mundane problems of their own existences. Getting enough food to eat, keeping a roof over their heads, finding effective medical treatments for illnesses and traumas, getting access to a useful education for their children, then scraping together enough cash to buy a few extras — or setting aside a tiny nest egg for the future.

Cities of the third world are becoming mega-cities and mega-slums, as people move from the countryside into the cities looking for work and excitement. Slavery is likely to experience a resurgence, as opportunistic vendors satisfy the tastes of those who prefer old fashioned pleasures — and for those businesses who are more comfortable managing a human workforce than one of robots.
More on the slavery of the future

But if elites work quickly, they can turn most of these burgeoning 3rd world megaslums into safe, happy camps of contented superfluity in short order. The alternative could well be an eruption of violent religious fanaticism, or bloody leftist revolution and civil war.

The Picture in Rich Countries is Somewhat Different

In more affluent nations, today’s superfluous people are likely to be on the government dole, with access to advanced medical care, all the education they can stomach, and many “necessities” that would be considered luxuries in most of the world. But for now, they must exist without the benefit of 3D virtual reality games with full body teledildonic haptics, and they do not get unlimited supplies of free, safe euphoric drugs such as the superfluous people of tomorrow will expect to be given.

The average IQ of today’s superfluous persons measures less than 90 points, whereas in the future anyone with an IQ less than 200 might be considered superfluous. In today’s world IQ is only on of the factors that determines whether a person can join the elite. Likewise in the future, IQ will be but one factor that separates the gods from the superfluous.

To satisfy the very intelligent and clever members of the superfluous future, the drugs will have to be good and the virtual reality must be convincing. But if the superfluous life is too inviting, only a vanishing few humans will ever strive for godhood.

For the bright and clever elites of today who will be among the superfluous people of tomorrow, it is particularly important that the magic carpet of transformation be rolled out slowly. If you put a frog in a pot of cold water, for example, and heat it very slowly to a boil, the frog may not understand what is happening to it in time to hop out of the pot.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

Remember: Dangerous Children (and Dangerous Communities) can engage and disengage with high tech society at will. This type of broad, multi-level competence is rare in modern times. And it will be even rarer in the age of the gods vs. the superfluous. Buckle up.

Posted in Demographics, Future, IQ, Islam's Bloody Borders, Machine Intelligence, Megacities, Slums | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Trump & Media Clown Show Obscures Frantic Movement Behind Scenes

Note: Donald Trump has been US President for fewer than 3 months. During this time the news and entertainment media have attacked Trump for what he has done, for what he has promised but failed yet to do, for things he is said to have done which are most unlikely, for supposed thoughts he may have had, for fantasies that exist only in the minds of his attackers . . . Into that climate of near-universal attack against Trump by media, academia, celebrities, Deep State government bureaucracy, and elitists of all stripes and polka-dots — Trump himself frequently portrays himself in a clownish way, particularly through his tweeting style.

Trump’s Clownish Tweets Feed Media Puppet Frenzy; Backstage Reality Ignored

Send in the Clowns
Watch the Trump & Media Puppet Show; Pay No Attention to What Happens Behind the Curtain

US President Donald Trump is driving the puppets and circus animals in the media to a mad frenzy, keeping them distracted with a flamboyant White House clown show. But strangely — and largely unreported — something quite different is taking place behind the scenes.

President Trump has been working quietly but vigorously to strengthen US commerce and industry, and to fend off a number of foreign threats that have been building over the past 30 years. Most of this work involves signing executive orders to undo as much of the damage caused by his predecessors as possible.

Most of the Trump team’s quiet, almost nonstop activity has not been noted by large media. Instead the media has been obsessed by imaginary Russian election omnipotence, Ivanka’s fashion line, a failed early cooperative attempt with Speaker of the House Paul Ryan to reform the imploding Obamacare health insurance debacle, and other ultimately inconsequential distractions and fabrications.

Despite the childish media hoopla, Trump is doing his job, day in and day out, mostly through the executive branch. Eventually he will need to work more actively with the legislative branch on larger issues such as tax reform and cutting back the bureaucracy in a radical way. And it goes without saying that those legislators who value the exceptional American Constitution — both Democrat and Republican — will need to step up to the plate and stop hiding behind the Trump extravaganza.

Here is a bare surface look at some of Trump’s recent achievements:

  1. President Trump has begun to dismantle former president Obama’s destructive energy and environmental policies. Details
  2. President Trump signed four bills into law to help chip away at crippling government over-regulation
  3. Trump continues to sign executive orders targeting foreign trade abuses
  4. Trump is moving Federal courts closer to the US Constition via judicial appointments to Federal Courts
  5. Groundwork for better border security at the US : Mexico frontier has been laid
  6. Important tax reform is in the works (Details on corporate tax reform)
  7. Attorney General Jeff Sessions has begun applying pressure to US cities and jurisdictions that harbour illegal aliens. Details
  8. Reining in the Corrupt United Nations Details
  9. Modernising the US military
  10. Making it easier for law enforcement to fight crime
  11. A White House Office of American Innovation has been created
  12. Several major manufacturers have announced new US plants or expansions at present ones
  13. Moved to rescind near monopoly by Google and Facebook for internet advertising
  14. More background:

    Undoing the Obama legacy

    Much work to do

    Manufacturers more optimistic under Trump

    Attacking Trade Abuses As noted before, Trump needs to play Mexico against China if he wants to pull off a big win on trade.

    Dismantling the Obamanation

    People who get their news from the mainstream or on Comedy Central network — or even via people such as Bill Maher — will never bother to look beyond the tip of the iceberg. It is the job of mainstream media to distract, deceive, and ultimately to influence and control the actions of consumers. It is not in the best interests of the mainstream — and the Deep State behind it — for individuals to think for themselves.

    The US Government is a Clumsy Lout

    It seems appropriate for someone such as Mr. Trump — in the persona of a Tweeting Clown — to act as the front man for a government that has grown monstrously large and loutish. As in the martial art of aikido, one must learn to blend with the opponent before taking them down.

    Trump is not guaranteed public acclaim. No matter what he does as president, it is likely that the US media will continue to fabricate ever new bases for personal attacks against him as long as it is able to sidestep its real job — to inform the American public of what is actually happening. But likewise, no matter what he does or does not achieve via the legislative branch, he will accomplish a large number of credible achievements during his tenure.

    Simply keeping Hillary & Bill from adding to Obama’s destructive agenda was a monumental achievement from the start. Moving the US Federal judiciary back toward the US Constitution will be another huge accomplishment. Slowing the mad rush to the Climate Apocalypse Cult and the Green Energy Scam represent huge achievements. And paring away at the bureaucratic Deep State in all of its manifestations will be of benefit to those who actually have important work to do in and around the US.

    Always Remember that What You See is Not What You Get

    Most important things that happen in the world take place out of sight, and thus out of mind. Large commercial media blocks the exposure of far more important factual (not opinion) news than it reveals.

    Keep your eyes and mind open. Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. Learn to be an opportunist in this day and age.

    Above all, take every opportunity to add to your Danger Factor.

Posted in Donald Trump, Draining the Swamp, Government, Politics | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Swarm Weapons: Is Your Survival Bunker Well Equipped?

Coming World of Swarming Drone Warfare

Unleash the Swarm
Image Source

Is anybody ready for this?

Small drones, even in large numbers, tend to be far cheaper than conventional, larger weapon systems… Indeed, most of these systems are based on existing, easily available, and extremely cheap civilian technology. This dramatically changes the operational cost-benefit analysis that military forces need to do. Second, a swarm is essentially unstoppable. It is capable of taking multiple hits and still keep operating. Its disaggregated nature makes it very difficult to destroy at one go, especially given the fact that current defence systems are designed to tackle individual targets.

Third, a single swarm can be used for multiple purposes. While a part of the swarm can be used for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions, the rest can be used as offensive weapons at the same time. Even the nature of their offensive capabilities can differ widely, ranging from kamikaze style self destructing drones to jamming electronic signals. Fourth, autonomous swarm technology is terrain agnostic, in that it can be used on air, land and in water. In fact, the most significant use of this technology may be for naval purposes. Swarms of underwater drones could be potentially used for everything from laying and destroying mines to protecting warships and submarines, and the United States Navy has already demonstrated the capabilities of surface level autonomous boats. __ Is Anybody Ready?

Navy Drones Extend Navy’s Reach for a Lower Cost

No matter where you plan to make your stand when TSHTF, you will need to plan for robotic swarm weapons. Robot weapons swarms are being designed and built to take to the land, sea, and air in large numbers. They will be cheap, and they will be deadly, and if you are not prepared to use them and defend against them, you will be toast.

Robot swarms are an extension of the “unmanned vehicle” concept. Unmanned vehicles have been given heavy use by all branches of the US military. Both the Pentagon and US Intelligence services have frequently used unmanned drones in both surveillance modes and in attack modes.

New Drones Will be Cheaper and Smarter, and Will Swarm

When launching an invasion, for example, large swarms of disposable, intelligent drones would be sent as a “first wave” of attack, to expose and destroy primary defences and to relay real-time status reports to command and control centres. “Second and third wave” attacks would include increasing numbers of manned aircraft — but each manned craft would itself be accompanied by a swarm of robotic drones to extend the pilot’s ability to see, defend, attack, and return safely.

Rather than send in a wave of manned planes for the first day of combat… send in wave after wave of cheap, disposable systems that come with no risk of losing a U.S. servicemember. __ DefenseNews

Robot drone swarms can now be launched from ships, from planes, from land bases, and from submarines. They can even be launched from over a thousand miles away, using a ground-hugging cruise missile.

“They are expendable and fly low as a surveillance asset. You can have a lot of them for a saturation approach. Saturating has an advantage over the thing it has to defend against. Its defender has to take more time and money to defend against it… __

Not Everyone Can Afford US Military-style Drone Swarms

The new drone swarms as envisioned by the US Pentagon, depend heavily on AI-like technology. Such technologies are difficult and expensive to master and implement, at least in the earlier stages before mass production.

Japan, Israel, the UK, and other technologically capable nations are likely to copy the Pentagon’s robotic drone swarm approach for purposes of attack, defence, and battlefield surveillance. China will try to keep up, using piracy by cyber espionage and reverse engineering. Others may have to be content with developing semi-capable defences against robotic drone swarms. Russia, for example, has a hard enough time just building its basic Proton rocket engines without catastrophic defects, and will need to improvise a defence against high technology swarms.

Defence against large numbers of drones is difficult: In hundreds of simulations, aproximately 3 out of 8 launched drones survived in an attack against a US Aegis equipped destroyer.

Cheap New Mass-Produced Swarm Systems are Coming

We can already buy cheap, off the shelf remotely-controlled drones. There are so many of them flying around developed countries that they are becoming a navigational hazard for private and commercial aircraft.

But in the next few years, we are likely to see cheap, mass-produced intelligent and semi-intelligent swarming robots that can launch from any location, carry out their mission in swarming good style, then either return to base or destroy themselves kamikaze style.

Is Your Survival Bunker Ready for Micro-Swarm Warfare?

Survival bunkers of the future will have to be resistant to drone surveillance. If they can’t see you, they can’t attack you. If your compound is readily located and reconned, your job of defending against a swarm will be much tougher.

Defence Against Swarms

Beyond traditional human sentries, fixed cameras, motion detectors, and simple mobile drone perimeter surveillance, kevlar netting combined with automated sentry guns would provide an intermediate and up-close defence against swarms. Both systems are expensive now, so a bit of improvisation to achieve the same goals may be called for. In the future, specialised producers are likely to provide less expensive systems of this type.

More on defending against swarms

Using Your Own Swarms

Offensive robot swarm drone systems for individual survivalists are apt to be pricey. Several survival compounds in a region may decide to link resources and personnel to create a “drone swarm attack squad” composed of members from each compound, who train themselves to maintain and operate low cost robotic attack swarms under specific conditions.

But even these “offensive” swarms are ultimately used for defensive purposes, when it comes to survival groups. They are likely to be called into play when a threatening force is sited by surveillance drones, or when surveillance drones and other “tripwire” sensors begin to mysteriously drop offline.

Robotic swarms may be used against other swarms, against attacking human forces on the move, or against specific equipment or emplacements that represent particular threat to the survival communities.

First Learn and Experiment with Ground-Based Swarms

Air, sea, and outer space-based swarms are much sexier, but to learn the basics of swarm technology it is more practical to begin with land-based robot swarms. Each drone has to be able to communicate and coordinate with other drones, in various configurations.

In semi-autonomous mode, humans maintain some level of control. For example, a human might send commands to the swarm to carry out a particular group operation, to move in a prearranged formation, or to abort the mission and RTB. More sophisticated methods of human to swarm control are being developed.

In autonomous mode, sometimes the entire swarm will act together; sometimes each individual drone will act individually under conditions of “radio silence.” Most of the time it is likely that the drones will interact in various combinations of the above modes, with the option of changing modes as circumstances evolve.

The software for autonomous robot swarming is still under development. But once it is perfected and hard-wired — at least for basic formations and missions — it can be mass produced fairly cheaply.

Conditions for Survival are Subject to Change

You are likely to go your entire life without coming under attack from hostile robot swarms. On the other hand, if you want to call yourself a “survivalist for the 21st century,” perhaps you should take a closer look at some of the things that you may come up against. If you have something that other people want to take for themselves, that is, or if you represent a threat to hostile others.

If you can project a non-threatening image while remaining potent, and project an image of bare subsistence while having everything you need, you will have fewer occasions to face state of the art attacks. And if you can remain invisible, somehow, while going about your life of planning and unleashing an abundant and expansive human future — the next level — then your risks of attack will be very low indeed.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. If you can find your way inside a Dangerous Community as a contributing member, consider it.

Posted in Disruptive Technologies, Machine Intelligence, Military, Robots, Self Organisation, Survival Prepping, TEOTWAWKI, Weapons | Tagged , | 3 Comments

The Great University Rip-Off

College is a place where young people go to binge, fornicate, receive an academic lobotomy, and become burdened by insurmountable debt — all in the quest for increasingly worthless diplomas. __ Al Fin

Wage Advantage from College Diploma Shrinking

College Advantage Shrinking
Image Source

Wages for college graduates across many majors have fallen since the 2007-09 recession, according to an unpublished analysis by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce in Washington using Census bureau figures. Young job-seekers appear to be the biggest losers.
__ Bloomberg

Even in crucial fields such as engineering, physical sciences, health sciences, computer science, and agriculture, wages for college grads have been dropping.

Some majors are bucking the wage-stagnation trend. An experienced petroleum engineering major earned $179,000 a year on average in 2015, up $46,000 from five years prior, according to the Georgetown analysis. Beyond those with special technical skills, philosophy and public policy majors have also seen their earnings rise. __ Bloomberg

Meanwhile, student loan debt across society soars:

Skyrocketing Student Debt

The following article is cross-posted from The Dangerous Child blog.

The Real World Needs Competent People with Applicable Skills

Look at the starting wages for various degrees in the graphics above — then consider that a good welder or oil field worker can earn over $100,000 before he turns 21, if he is given a head start! Such lucrative skills can be learned by youth in high school before turning 18.

Another high school program that trains future oil field workers.
A list of 27 good paying jobs that do not require 4 year degrees

This doesn’t mean that all young people should be shunted toward blue collar and mid-level jobs and professions. That is not what Dangerous Child training is about. Instead, Dangerous Child training is aimed at training competent and confident young people who are equipped to shape their own futures from the onset of adulthood. Some Dangerous Children will go into the trades, some will choose higher education — some may even choose government work! The goal of Dangerous Child training is to give the ownership of that choice to the child himself, along with plenty of backdoors in case the first choice doesn’t work out. And all of that without a mountain of debt!

Dangerous Children master at least three ways of achieving financial independence by the time they turn 18 yo. Not all of them will earn him $100,000 a year off the bat. But by combining practical competence with business and entrepreneurial skills — that are also learned before turning 18 — Dangerous Children are capable of building businesses that can earn well over a $million a year.

Sure, businesses have to pay taxes, labour, rents, and so forth, but Dangerous Children learn how to economise on such expenses by the age of 12. Most of them get plenty of practise at running a small business by the time they reach 18 years, so they are ready to start building a future out of the gate.

A Dangerous Childhood Depends Upon a Child’s Ability to Teach Himself

Modern society too often looks at children as incompetent nuisances, who must be sheltered from the real world until they turn 18 — at which point they are thrown into a corrupt and undisciplined world completely unprepared for what they will face. The end result of such an approach is a growing herd of sheep-like young people who are still incompetent, and likely to stay that way. By default, these sheep are closely guided in their tastes, interests, and “relevant causes” by faux experts in media, academia, and government and by celebrity figures around the world.

A Dangerous Child, on the other hand, learns to teach himself from an early age. By teaching himself to develop a broad competence in practical skills as well as in scholarship, a Dangerous Child develops confidence in his own ability to solve increasingly important problems and to build things of increasing complexity that actually work.

A self-taught person who possesses both self discipline and self confidence will not be swayed by popular appeals to group status or celebrity appeal. He will be a contrarian thinker who works things out for himself, impervious to the herd mentality of a corrupt, groupthinking culture.

Article is cross-posted from Al Fin, The Dangerous Child, blog

Another way colleges devalue their degrees

Students are not necessarily stupid. But they are abysmally ignorant for the most part.

Our students’ ignorance is not a failing of the educational system – it is its crowning achievement. Efforts by several generations of philosophers and reformers and public policy experts — whom our students (and most of us) know nothing about — have combined to produce a generation of know-nothings. The pervasive ignorance of our students is not a mere accident or unfortunate but correctible outcome, if only we hire better teachers or tweak the reading lists in high school. It is the consequence of a civilizational commitment to civilizational suicide. The end of history for our students signals the End of History for the West. __ Lost Generations

Posted in Dangerous Child, Education, University | Tagged ,

Gods of the Apocalypse Fade, as True Believers Slip Away

The late 20th century was a mother lode for prophets of the apocalypse. Of all the apocalyptic faiths of the 1980s and 1990s, none was more strongly held than the one true faith in Peak Oil Armageddon. And why not? Earth is a finite planet. New oil discoveries were falling, oil price supply shocks were becoming more frequent. Oil production was believed to have peaked in North America and Russia, and growing numbers of believers were sure that Saudi Arabia would be next to fall. After that, could the great global collapse of civilisation be far behind?

Predictions of Peak Oil Evolve Over Time
Peak Oil Estimates Growing on Trees

… in 1980, the United States was thought to have roughly 30 billion barrels of oil reserves. Over the subsequent 30 years, the U.S. produced nearly 80 billion barrels.[10] __ Just Getting Started

Saudi Arabian production did not collapse, but has instead slowly grown over the past 15 years. Russian production has grown and hovers near record levels. And US production is once again moving toward record production levels. A massive quantity of oil that was once inaccessible at economic prices is now being made accessible via new technologies of discovery and production. And discovery of most of that oil has barely begun.

Oil Production: Russia, Saudi, USA

In the video below, energy analyst Michael Lynch looks at the past and present of Peak Oil, and suggests some trends to look for in the near future.

Interview with Michael Lynch on new Peak Oil book

Technology improves economics. Smaller and smaller oil accumulations can be found and economically recovered even in an environment of stable inflation-adjusted prices because technology is continuously improving… And large discoveries continue to be made in plays that weren’t envisioned just a few years ago. __ More Oil Than Foreseen

The science and technology of oil discovery and production are advancing at sufficient rates to keep up with any growing demand for oil & gas by current human societies. If oil & gas prices rise significantly due to another unexpected round of higher demand — such as from India and China in the early 2000s — more money will be put into research and discovery.

The volume of organic carbon-rich sediment in the Earth’s crust is massively large. The Gulf of Mexico has accumulated more than 60,000′ of sedimentary column over the last 200 million years. The Cenozoic section, alone, is more than 40,000′ thick in places. The Quaternary can be more than 30,000′ thick in some locations. Most of the sedimentary column is composed of thick, organic-rich shale.

Oil is still being formed and migrating from source to reservoir rocks in the Gulf of Mexico. The Pleistocene reservoirs are less than 2.5 million years old and many have only been charged over the last 275,000 years. __ Where Did Oil Come From?

An Impossible Claim?

crude oil today remains a plentiful and high-performance resource with considerable prospects to grow in production and consumption for another century.


Most peak oilers will probably burst their Circle of Willis should they try to read the article linked just above. The cognitive dissonance grows too large too fast when a true believer is confronted with credible evidence that their beliefs are worth less than monkeyshite in the real world.

Here at the Al Fin Institutes, one of our favourite sayings is: Everything you think you know, just ain’t so. Or to put it in a more blunt and less folksy way, “Everything you believe, is a lie.” But that, too, is not quite true. Knowledge and belief exist on a continuum that varies with level of likelihood or probability:

We start with an idea. It may be a sense impression of some sort — something that happened to catch our eye and intrigue our curiosity. Or it may be a speculation in our mind — a daydream or a theory, for example. As the idea or theory passes through the authentication process, it may be verified, refuted, or transformed to accommodate additional and discordant evidence. But if the authentication process is doing its job, whatever conclusion it is reaching about the idea is becoming progressively more certain (even if that means that the original idea itself is becoming progressively more dubious). Therefore, at some point in the authentication process, the probability of a mistaken conclusion is reduced to the point where we can say that we “know” this or that. Where that point is varies from person to person, so that what is “knowledge” to one is merely a plausible belief to another and only a theory to someone else. Each of us has some point — some probability level — beyond which we will say that we “know” something. But all things fall short of absolute certainty: life itself might be a dream and logic a delusion. Still, because we act, we must decide, and how decisively we can act depends on how well we know the consequences.

… Because the arena of decision making almost always exceeds the arena of knowledge, there must be belief — or at least hope — to fill in the gaps where there is no knowledge. This means that the ratio of knowledge to belief may also vary enormously from one aspect of life to another.
__ From Chapt 1 “The Role of Knowledge” in Thomas Sowell’s “Knowledge and Decisions

Most of us fail to think for ourselves, or are too lazy to go through the different authentication processes which are necessary to actually “know” things in the different aspects of our lives. So we trust in unauthenticated beliefs instead, relying on secondhand claims and the dogmatic beliefs of others who may shout more loudly or cleverly to us, in the public marketplace of ideas.

Given the human weakness for theories of doom, it is not surprising that among the many transitory fashions of quasi-religious belief, are the many cults of doom. From peak oil armageddon to carbon climate apocalypse to Y2K to the perennial lefty-Luddite dieoff.orgy yearnings for a great human dieoff, doomer cults come and go — and are quickly replaced by others as needed.

Gods Demand Pointless Sacrifices on Altars of Smoke and Mirrors

Obama’s attempts to placate the gods by destroying the US energy infrastructure would not have led to any significant improvement in the real world:

By one calculation implementing the Obama administration’s Paris climate pledge fully would reduce the future increase in average global temperature by 0.031 degree Celsius by 2100. Fulfilling all of the Paris pledges together would reduce future temperatures in 2100 by 0.17 degree Celsius. __ Reason

Ultimately pointless goals and sacrifices, destructive cults, self-fulfilling pathways to doom. A portion of the human population has always been attracted to nihilistic and suicidal movements and causes.

If we are honest in our study of history and pay attention, we can see that the gods of apocalypse past faded into silence only to be replaced by more fashionable gods of apocalypse present. These, in turn, will eventually be replaced by gods of apocalypse future. Since we are human and too often believe we must lay claim to certainty and “meaningful beliefs”, we are prone to grasp at mere delusions of certainty — even if the certainty is only one of doom and apocalypse.

But, if somehow by some chance you have become a Dangerous Child, you will be too busy helping bring about an expansive and abundant human future to let yourself dance and wallow in the degenerate cults of doom. Rather than gods of apocalypse, your gods will be of the next level. That is where things begin to get interesting.

Posted in Energy, Peak Oil | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Angry Socialists Attack Trump Rally: Deep State Media Smokescreen

Peaceful Trump Rally Attacked by Violent Socialists

A pro-Trump rally participant is punched in the face by an anti-Trump protester as the two sides clash at a Pro-Trump rally in Huntington Beach, California, U.S., March 25, 2017. REUTERS/Patrick T. Fallon

This past Saturday, about 2,000 Trump supporters gathered peacefully at Huntington Beach, California. They were confronted by a small violent mob of socialists who were out to provoke a confrontation.

Multiple fights broke out and at least one Trump supporter was doused with pepper spray when pro-Trump demonstrators marching along Bolsa Chica State Beach encountered a small group opposed to the Republican president who had gathered to denounce the rally.

Four counter-protesters were arrested, three for illegal use of pepper spray and one for assault and battery, Kevin Pearsall, a spokesman for the California State Parks Police said on Saturday evening.

The fights appeared to start in the early afternoon when around a dozen anti-Trump protesters dressed in all black refused to move from a bike path to allow a larger group of pro-Trump supporters taking part in the Make America Great Again rally to pass. The confrontation escalated into a fight with more skirmishes quickly breaking out.

At least one person was pepper-sprayed by an anti-Trump protester, Pearsall said. __

Violent Socialist Subdued
Image Source

Trump supporters responded to the provocation by subduing the pepper sprayers and the most violent of the socialist provocateurs. They were soon backed up by law enforcement.

The pepper-sprayed marchers were seen cringing in pain as other supporters clad in Trump t-shirts helped them. One man in an army green Trump hat angrily chased a protester with an American flag. Police dogs snapped at the protesters as officers in riot gear yelled at the masked men.

One of the sprayers was one of the men in a black mask according to the Los Angeles Times. The supporters reportedly started punching and kicking the man after the attack.

The violence erupted when the march of about 2,000 people at Bolsa Chica State Beach reached a group of about 30 protesters, some of whom began spraying them after brawls broke out, according to Capt. Kevin Pearsall of the California State Parks Police.
Three people were arrested on suspicion of illegal use of pepper spray, he said.


Note How Deep State Media Proceeds to Distort the Story to Better Fit the Deep State Narrative

Hispanic ABC reporter Mayde Gomez distorts the story in typical Deep State whitewashing style. According to all credible accounts by witnesses and police, socialist disruptors pepper sprayed and suddenly began punching peaceful protestors. But according to ABC’s Gomez, it was the socialist attackers who were pepper sprayed and attacked.

From ABC News reporter Mayde Gomez:

About 30 to 40 protesters, some from the Socialist Party USA, headed to the event to have their voices heard.

The march started out peaceful, but violence soon erupted when the protesters and supporters met. At one point, a woman was punched in the face by a man. An anti-Trump protester was then doused with pepper spray and other acts of violence were sparked.

The protesters wore masks and some were tackled, punched and kicked. One man who was beaten ended up jumping over a fence and running toward officers in an effort to get away from the crowd.

One protester, who wore his mask on camera, said it was a dangerous situation for them to be in.

“We’re outnumbered one to 100 and these are not nice people we’re dealing with. We put our hands behind our backs. We don’t engage. We don’t use violence. I may have a bruised rib or two,” he said.

But Trump supporter Travis Guenther said someone came up to his “100-pound” wife and pepper sprayed her within close range.

“There was no fight. I’m an intellect. I can talk with anybody – no problem. But if you want to come and start a fight, I can fight. That’s what that man got,” he said. __

It is uncertain how forcefully Gomez’ arm had to be twisted in order for her to include the quote by Travis Guenther at the end. It must have pained her terribly. 😉

Judging by appearances, most of the violent socialist attackers were either black or hispanic, some possibly arab. When persons from muslim countries join such violent groups, it makes sense for them to wear masks and hoods to disguise their backgrounds. Bad behaviour by particular groups tends to be noted by the silent majority of peaceful voters, who take those memories to the voting booths the next election.

For these groups, provoking violence is their main objective.

More Photos

No Words of Condemnation from Bernie Sanders or Barack Obama

Such violent confrontations as the one in Huntington Beach last Saturday have been occurring since inauguration day in January 2017. They are sponsored by Deep State impressario George Soros, and clearly approved of by Marxist Bernie Sanders and by Barack Obama — who was raised and brainwashed by family friend Frank Marshall Davis, a member of the Communist Party USA.

But you can go back as far as the Ferguson, Missouri protests of 2014 to pick up the trail of Soros-inspired violence. And sure enough, US voters remembered Ferguson when they went to the voting booth in 2016 to elect Donald Trump. Deep State sponsored violence can sometimes backfire on its 1% wealthy leftist backers, no matter how the Deep State media attempts to spin the narrative.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

A world of Dangerous Children awaits your assistance, to come into being.

Posted in Donald Trump, Politics | Tagged
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