China’s Marshmallow Days

China Economic Blockbuster

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain __ The Wizard of Oz (1939)

Despite appreciable slowing of China’s economic growth rates, the Middle Kingdom is riding a glittering wave of apparent wealth. The dragon maintains its ability to shape the destinies of lesser nations with which it interacts, even to the point of taking possession of significant assets of these smaller countries when they default on “honey loans” meant for infrastructure development.

Last year, with more than $1 billion in debt to China, Sri Lanka handed over a port to companies owned by the Chinese government. Now Djibouti, home to the US military’s main base in Africa, looks about to cede control of another key port to a Beijing-linked company…

Some call this “debt-trap diplomacy“: Offer the honey of cheap infrastructure loans, with the sting of default coming if smaller economies can’t generate enough free cash to pay their interest down. In Sri Lanka, acrimony remains around Hambatota and projects like “the world’s emptiest airport.”

… The Center for Global Development, a non-profit research organization, analyzed debt to China that will be incurred by nations participating in the current Belt and Road investment plan. Eight nations will find themselves vulnerable to above-average debt: Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, the Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro, Pakistan, and Tajikistan. __ China Debt Trap

For smaller and weaker nations, it is a dangerous thing to default on a debt to China. As we have seen in the South China Seas, the Chinese Communist Party is not at all reluctant to claim foreign territories for itself, and then to move immediately to militarise such territories.

Behind the banner of its “Belt and Road” investment plan, China appears to be embarking upon a grand plan of “marshmallow” imperialism. Calling to mind the child psychology experiments where children are offered one marshmallow now, or two marshmallows if they can wait a specified period of time, the third world recipients of Chinese enticement loans seem to want their one marshmallow now — and damn the long term costs to themselves and their progeny.

China Debt Inside and Out

China has pushed out $38 trillion in new debt (primarily to its corporations) that has (and still is), built massive new debt fueled capacity for a collapsing domestic and anemically growing global consumer base…what could go wrong? And now that the consumer base is shrinking, the debt issuance and resultant further build out in new capacity, apartment blocks, shopping malls, etc. etc. is likely set to go into a final mal-investment overdrive. __ https://econimica.blogspot.ch/2018/03/chinas-impending-middle-class-boom-more.html

China’s debt has skyrocketed since the global deflationary crisis of 2007-2009. A collapse of foreign investment and China’s export markets resulted in the need for China’s government to build future GDP growth upon internal credit-based investments — including massive infrastructure buildups. Such an addiction to debt will be harder for China to break than an addiction to heroin would be to break for the looming number of opiate users in China.

More on the China Bubble

Is China Following Japan’s Tragic History?

China is experiencing the exponential growth of a credit/debt bubble which will have unpredictable consequences. But even more consequential than China’s internal debt bubble is the debt bubble that China is exporting to the rest of the world, via its “Belt and Road” initiative and by other means.

When China “takes over” the territory of a formerly sovereign power — whether via debt foreclosure or via other means of persuasion –> intimidation –> coercion — the dragon carries along the threat of military occupation. A long “island chain” of military occupied territories from the South China Sea to Sri Lanka to Greece to Venezuela and Panama would project an impression of global power to many observers.

Similarly, Japan’s Asian and Pacific conquests prior to its conflict with the US in the 1940s, appeared to be vast and irreversible. Australia was almost certain to be next under the Japanese sword, and then India.

What does this have to do with China? China achieved its wealth following “the Japanese model.” It is rapidly building its military strength using western technologies — stolen, bought, pirated, and copied, much like Japan did. It is extending its regional reach via both economic and military imperialism — based upon an ethnic Han Chinese nationalism, in imitation of the Nipponese nationalism used by the Japanese militarists of the past. China — like Japan before it — seems reluctant to threaten Russia outright, although ultimately China will need Russian resources. Whether Chinese bluster in general is aimed toward actual warfare or merely the threat of war to achieve its longer term ends, the result will be the same.

The events that forced Japan to relinquish its historical conquests and dreams of domination were different in many ways than the events which will ultimately force China to once again back away from painful engagement with the outside world. No matter how overextended China’s outside territories and logistical chains become, the greatest weaknesses for China have always been internal. And so they remain.

China will not be overrun by low IQ immigrants — as Germany and Sweden seem determined to be. China’s rot is built in, displayed in its bloody harvest of human organs from political prisoners, its toxic land-air-water-food-medicines-harbours, its massive corruption and misallocation of resources, a fatal lack of openness and equal opportunity, and the core of greed and deceit that drives government at all levels. These are all ticking time bombs, as displayed in an ongoing capital flight, brain drain, and a general attitude of “getting out while the getting is good,” among those with the opportunity to do so.

Internal Pressures Will Drive China’s Cataclysms

China is experiencing an apparent golden age, with daily announcements of grand achievements “any day now” by the CCP military, by China’s scientists, by the space corps, by the grand “Belt and Road” initiative, and by the unstoppable grand expansion of Chinese influence and domination worldwide. Behind the curtain, desperate manipulation is called for, to maintain outward appearances of inevitable progress.

In other words, China’s future is “baked in” by the characters of CCP leadership and by the stratospheric expectations of the Chinese people themselves — constantly driven to greater heights by government propaganda. But not everyone in China is getting with the program, and that will be an ever growing problem for the master class.

Interesting times, mister Xi.

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What’s Holding Blacks Back?

It Feels Good to Be a Victim

blacks, inevitably, suffer from a classic post-colonial inferiority complex. Like insecure people everywhere, they are driven by a private sense of personal inadequacy to seeing imaginary obstacles to their success supposedly planted by others.

… The victimology cult has in turn engendered a cult of black separatism.

__ “Whats Holding Blacks Back (2001 in CityJournal)

Not much has changed over the past 17 years since Columbia University academic John McWhorter penned those words. It seems that blacks are inextricably stuck in this “classic post-colonial inferiority complex” — whatever that is — in perpetuity. Most black celebrity leaders seem content to keep it that way, having profited immensely under the current regime of victimhood.

What has changed significantly is that more and more countries around the world are asking themselves the question: “What’s wrong with black people? Why do they remain on the lower rungs of the ladder wherever in the world they go?”

Fear of a Black Invasion in China

Today’s Chinese feel a bit uncomfortable about the numbers of black people in their midst. Here are a few of their misgivings on the topic:

“Black brothers often travel in droves; they are out at night out on the streets, nightclubs, and remote areas. They engage in drug trafficking, harassment of women, and fighting, which seriously disturbs law and order in Guangzhou… Africans have a high rate of AIDS and the Ebola virus that can be transmitted via body fluids… If their population [keeps growing], China will change from a nation-state to an immigration country, from a yellow country to a black-and-yellow country.”

… The types of discourses you see on social media sites are quite repetitive—black men raping Chinese women, black men having consensual sex with Chinese women and then leaving them, blacks as drug users and thieves destroying Chinese neighborhoods. People are living in a society that is changing rapidly. ‘The blacks’ has become a projection point for all these anxieties in society.” __ QZ.com

Notice the huge growth in migration rates across the Mediterranean.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-24583286

Europe Lies in the Flight Path of African Population Overflow

Of course China is not at all close to being overrun by large numbers of African people. But Europe is something else, since Europe lies directly in the path of migration for an overflowing dark continent.

Without outside help, Africa is already badly overpopulated. Despite that, African fertility rates are sky high. If Africa’s growing surplus of humans is not shipped to more advanced parts of the world — like Europe — conditions in African cities will become more and more unlivable than they are already becoming.

But once this overflow of people — average IQ ~ 75 — arrives in Europe, what can Europe do with them? The world of tomorrow needs people of higher IQ to operate its advanced machinery and maintain its critical infrastructures. Finding productive things for low IQ populations to do is not something that an aging native population of Europe will find at all entertaining or profitable.

What Does the Future Hold for European Crime Rates?


It is clear from the graphic above, that without black crime and incarceration, US crime and incarceration would be much lower — comparable to the lowest of European crime and incarceration rates.

But as the proportion of black Africans living in Europe rises, only a fool would expect crime rates in Europe to remain low. And so Europeans — as they grow ever older and more feeble — will need to learn how to police societies with exponentially rising crime rates. This will be an almost impossible task unless Europeans jettison their born-again religion of political correctness.

What About Brazil?

Brazil inherited large numbers of black people from the Portuguese slavers who developed the Brazilian cane trade. The legacy of black slavery in Brazil is murder rates among the highest in the world.

Brazil was responsible for 10 percent of all murders in the world in 2015. Young Black males accounted for a majority of those deaths. With the number of fatalities surpassing 59,000 that year alone, the homicide rate in the country reached an exorbitant 29 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. __ Source

Young black males make up most victims and perpetrators of Brazil’s ongoing murder epidemic. That sad reciprocity is true wherever in the world large numbers of blacks settle. Young. Black. Males. Murder. Each. Other.

Can Africa Make the Economic Leap Made by Singapore, S. Korea, Japan?

Africa remains poor decades after the end of colonialism. In fact, many African nations — including Zimbabwe and South Africa — have lost considerable ground since the end of colonial rule. Or consider the decline of Liberia, which was begun as a highly subsidised free nation populated by freed American slaves.

The article excerpted below examines the question of how African nations might jump to the level of the first world — straight out of the third world, like Singapore successfully did.

Nineteen out of 23 of the poorest nations in the world are in Africa. Of the 54 African countries, about 19 are represented on the world’s poorest list. __ What Does Africa Need to Grow Rich?

But Singapore had leadership, rule of law, and a population substrate of educated and educable people. Africa lacks all of those things, and has nothing like the foundational institutions that have helped to lift Taiwan.

This is the Challenge

So what is holding blacks back? The refusal by mainstream media, academia, government, foundations, activist groups, and other mainstream institutions to face the reality of black lives as they are actually lived is holding everyone back. Instead of facing reality and dealing with it, these corrupt assholes are using real black people as cannon fodder to advance their own careers and agendas at the expense of black lives.

The pertinent statistics in the two preceding graphics are the numbers of blacks killed by other blacks (esp. by young black males) vs. the vanishingly small number in comparison of blacks killed by whites or by police (of all races).

As soon as mainstream media, academia, government, other cultural institutions, and black leaders themselves stop using young black males as cannon fodder, and start acting as if black lives actually do matter, they can begin getting real about making the lives of black people better.

Follow the logical chain: Government policies –> Large numbers of unwed black mothers –> Most young blacks growing up in poverty without responsible male role models –> High levels of crime of all types, mental illness, illegitimate births, government dependency and incarceration –> Generation after generation after generation of the same . . .

Who is responsible? What needs to change?

Posted in Africa, Blacks and crime, Demographics | Tagged | 4 Comments

A Future in Space

World’s Richest Man Dreams of Vast Numbers Living in Space

Jeff Bezos — worth about $130 billion — dreams of a future where a trillion people live in outer space. The more room that is made for bright humans to live out their lives, the more likelihood of bringing into existence many new Einsteins, Mozarts, Leonardos, and Newtons.

Bezos’ Blue Origin spaceships may not be performing at the level of Elon Musk’s SpaceX birds, but the recent sub-orbital New Shephard test flight was still pretty exciting. By 2020, Blue Origin’s New Glenn launcher is planned for orbital missions.

Move Over Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos … Rick Tumlinson Wants a Piece of the Pie

Rick Tumlinson — formerly of Deep Space Industries — is now devoting much of his energy to developing new venture startups in the outer space commercial sector.

“Jeff and Elon are not sufficient alone to create a settlement-based economy,” he said. “They may be able to provide the major foundations of the ecosystem, but we need to enable hundreds or thousands of young, brilliant entrepreneurs to create all the other elements that go into an economy.” __ http://spacenews.com/space-resources-company-co-founder-sets-sights-on-next-wave-of-space-startups/

Tumlinson is quite correct in stating that many thousands of new space entrepreneurs will be needed to build a thriving cis-lunar space economy.

Next Stop: Cislunar Space
Image Source

NASA to Assist Commercial Enterprises Moving into Lunar Space

More

New Starship Project to be Built from an Asteroid (More)

FAA Recently Authorised to Support Commercial Spaceflight Activities including new spaceports

President Trump’s New Space Force

Carnival of Space News at NextBigFuture

SpaceX getting even more competitive

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US Nuclear Power Industry Starts Waking Up

NuScale Power’s small modular fission reactor for producing both electricity and industrial process heat has completed an extensive and rigorous review by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The process required 115,000 hours of scrupulous review, and was carried out quite smoothly — considering that NuScale’s is the only small modular reactor to have undergone such a review.

The NRC is expected to certify NuScale’s design, and the company’s first customer, Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems, is planning a 12-module SMR plant in Idaho slated for operation by the mid-2020s based on this certified design. __ NuScale h/t NBF

NuScale Trailer Delivered Small Modular Nuclear Reactor
NBF

Factory-built small modular reactors represent an important step toward the economical scaling of production and installation of newer, simpler, safer, and more affordable ways of supplying electrical power and heat from nuclear fission.

NuScale Power, LLC is developing a new modular light water reactor nuclear power plant. This groundbreaking technology features a fully factory fabricated NuScale Power Module™ capable of generating 50MW of power using a safer, smaller, and scalable version of pressurized water reactor technology. NuScale’s scalable design – a power plant can house up to 12 individual power modules –offers the benefits of carbon-free nuclear power and reduces the financial commitments associated with gigawatt-sized nuclear facilities. NuScale’s technology is also ideally suited to supply energy for district heating, desalination, and process heat applications.

The majority investor in NuScale is Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR), a global engineering, procurement, and construction company with a 60-year history in commercial nuclear power.

NuScale is headquartered in Portland, Oregon and has offices in Corvallis, Ore.; Rockville, Md.; Charlotte, N.C.; Richland, Wash.; Arlington, Va.; and London, UK. __ Nuscalepower.com via Brian Wang’s Next Big Future

Under recent US presidents prior to Trump, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission performed the role of deal-breaker and monkey-wrench inserter when it came to advancing nuclear power technology. But since the election of Donald Trump as US President, many branches of the US government — including the NRC — have been shoved back into productive and assistive roles for American industry.

Under the late US president Obama in particular, US federal bureaucracies too often performed as agents of sabotage toward US industry, the US economy, and toward traditional American cultural institutions in general. Some of those bureaucracies even tried to rig the 2016 elections in a patently illegal manner, but fortunately for the US economy they failed.

More on Small Modular Reactors:

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-power-reactors/small-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx

http://smrstart.org/small-modular-reactor-technology/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_modular_reactor

Posted in Energy, Nuclear Power | Tagged | 5 Comments

Is Evil Google Destined for a Mighty Fall?

The 33-year average tenure of companies on the S&P 500 in 1964 narrowed to 24 years by 2016 and is forecast to shrink to just 12 years by 2027
https://www.innosight.com/insight/creative-destruction/

Stormy Seas for Google and Other Giant Corporations

It is not only Google that is facing the peril of capitalism’s “creative destruction,” it is every corporation that thinks it has made it into the safe port of the S&P 500. Average time of residency within the Standard and Poor 500 companies is shrinking rapidly, making the concept of a “secure harbor from the storm” quite unrealistic.

Google, Facebook, and Apple are three of the wealthiest companies in the world. And yet, each of these companies is exquisitely vulnerable to a number of economic, political, and technological forces that could rip the magic carpet of success clean away from their expansive posteriors.

More on political hazards for giant tech companies

Few companies are immune to the forces of creative destruction. Our corporate longevity forecast of S&P 500 companies anticipates average tenure on the list growing shorter and shorter over the next decade.

… There are a variety of reasons why companies drop off the list. They can be overtaken by a faster growing company and fall below the market cap size threshold (currently that cutoff is about $6 billion). Or they can enter into a merger, acquisition or buyout deal. At the current and forecasted turnover rate, the Innosight study shows that nearly 50% of the current S&P 500 will be replaced over the next ten years. This projection is consistent with our previous analysis from 2012 and 2016, which Innosight originally conducted with Creative Destruction author Richard Foster.

Shrinking lifespans of companies on the list are in part driven by a complex combination of technology shifts and economic shocks, some of which are beyond the control of corporate leaders. But frequently, companies miss opportunities to adapt or take advantage of these changes. For example, they continue to apply existing business models to new markets, are slow to respond to disruptive competitors in low-profit segments, or fail to adequately envision and invest in new growth areas which often takes a decade or longer to pay off.

At the same time, we’ve seen the rise of other companies take their place on the list by creating new products, business models, and serving new customers.

… most leaders see future competition coming from existing players, rather than new competitors… Due to blind spots like these, our survey pointed to what we called a “confidence bubble,” in which leaders expressed high degrees of confidence they could transform but at the same seemed to underestimate specific threats and opportunities. __ Innosight

Google is vulnerable to lawsuits, new technologies, and the political squeeze. Life after Google

Google Grows Brittle and Dogmatic

Innovative companies succeed when they make the most of their talent. As soon as a wealthy company falls to nepotism and the promotion of the unqualified to high position, the joints grow stiff and the bones brittle. Cracks form and extend into vital areas of former productivity. Degeneration and decay inevitably follow — unless the company institutes rapid and radical reform to return it to a hierarchy of merit and competence, away from nepotistic corruption.

Details from diversity training sessions, accounts of alleged reverse discrimination, and screenshots of internal communications on company forums and message boards in the lawsuit cast the company culture as extremely hostile to employees with unpopular opinions, especially heterosexuals, men, white people, and those who hold conservative views. __ The Federalist

But it is not just libertarians, centrists, and conservatives who are suing Google now. Everybody wants to get into the act.

Live by Political Correctness, Die by Political Correctness

George Orwell’s masterpiece 1984 painted a masterful portrait of political correctness in totalitarian societies. The orchestrated “Two Minutes Hate” of public emoting against the “enemy of the state” is a classic image of modern brainwashing techniques seen on television shows such as those of Stephen Colbert, Trevor Noah, Bill Maher, Jimmy Kimmel, and many others. Within the brainwash factories such as Google or Facebook, such mindless emotional displays against [fill in the blank] would not seem surprising or out of place.

Judging by its policies of outright discrimination by race and sex, Google is clearly an evil entity. Understanding further how deeply Google’s brainwashing wishes to penetrate into the psyches of ordinary people around the world, the company is malignant and malevolent, deserving whatever the forces of creative destruction and inexorable obsolescence can wreak upon it.

Perhaps more telling, Google’s counterproductive forays into unreliable forms of energy production — such as grid-scale wind and grid-scale solar — reveal to those who can see, just how ideologically bound the company is becoming. And in a world of rapid turnover, creative destruction, and disruptive innovation, allowing one’s company to become so tightly bound up in a rigid ideology of obtuseness and self-destructiveness is a clear signal to the more cognitively capable parts of the outer world.

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The US economy is in better shape than is being reported. And a healthy economy lends to greater creative destruction and disruptive innovation. The US got used to Obama’s 0% interest rate fake stimulus and settled in for a long stagnant stretch of status quo. Trump is a different beast. The Trump economy is facing a decade’s worth of deferred blowback from the 2007-2009 deflation and the 2008-20016 Obama economic suffocation. These things must be worked through the system, along with a globe’s worth of economic dysfunction that has been waiting in a very long queue of neglect.

Expect turbulence — but not doom — ahead.

Posted in Disruptive Technologies, Future, innovation | Tagged | 1 Comment

Is Trump Bringing Latin America to Its Senses?

Not so long ago, Latin America was riding a big red wave of leftist triumphalism — from Cuba to Venezuela to Ecuador to Brazil to Nicaragua … But leftism in Latin America seems to have fallen on hard times recently:

Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez is dead, and his bumbling successor, Nicolás Maduro, presiding over a disintegrating country. Brazil’s once wildly popular leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is in prison. In Cuba, the Castro era is over, at least in terms of sanguineous inheritance… In Argentina, as well, where the husband-and-wife team of Néstor and Cristina Kirchner played at leftist politics for over a decade, a right-of-center capitalist, Mauricio Macri, is now in charge. And in Ecuador, the Chávez protégé Rafael Correa, an outspoken anti-American, has been replaced by his less confrontational former Vice-President, Lenín Moreno, who appears to have seen the writing on the wall and is reëstablishing good relations with the United States. __ NewYorker

In Nicaragua, Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega still rules over the peons, but his throne is feeling a lot less comfortable these days:

[Daniel] Ortega and his wife have steadily consolidated their power, eliminating their opponents through a canny combination of economic co-option and, when necessary, outright repression… The unrest of the past week appears to have inched Ortega close to the exit door. This is an outcome that he and Murillo did not expect, and they may not yet believe it to be a real possibility. In their televised appearances over the past week, Ortega and Murillo have been shown in safe settings in the Presidential complex, surrounded by a handful of loyal ministers and generals. They have worn the mild and uncomprehending expressions of people who seem genuinely unaware of the reality outside their privileged circle of influence. They have reminded me of Nicolae and Elena Ceaușescu, who believed themselves to be the anointed custodians of the destiny of the Romanian people until that fateful evening in December, 1989, when the cheers of a crowd turned to boos, and would not stop. The look of incomprehension, and then terrified awareness, on the Ceaușescus’ faces as the booing grew more audible was the moment at which their dictatorship ended. Within a few days of that speech, the Ceașescus were shot to death by a hastily convened firing squad. As in so many violent overthrows in history, the men who executed them had been regime loyalists—outwardly, at least. __ Nicaragua on the Brink

Ortega’s Nicaragua is running out of “other people’s money,” as every socialist workers’ paradise is wont to do sooner or later. In previous times, he could turn to friends in other leftist nations of Latin America for assistance. As those Latin-lefty dominoes teeter and fall, Ortega is on his own — unless he can beg some loans from the communist party of China.

More background on Nicaragua’s current instability:

The present convulsion began earlier this month, after President Daniel Ortega proposed a change to the country’s social-security provisions that would have forced taxpayers to pay more for the program while simultaneously cutting payouts to beneficiaries. Nicaragua is one of the poorest countries of Latin America, and public reaction to this change was furious and swift, with demonstrators taking to the streets to protest. The government’s ensuing response was as ill-considered as it was cruel. Police around the country fired live ammunition to break up the protests; as many as sixty people are believed to have died in the chaos that followed, including Ángel Gahona, a young reporter who was shot in the head while conducting a Facebook Live report in the streets of the Caribbean coastal town of Bluefields.

As the civilian deaths mounted, Rosario Murillo—Ortega’s wife, Vice-President, and spokesperson—issued a stream of belittling comments, calling the protesters “bloodsuckers,” “criminals,” and “vampires.” This only raised the ire of many thousands of ordinary Nicaraguans, and, just as happened in the late nineteen-seventies, when the dictator Somoza tried to stamp out dissent with harsh measures, the sentiments on the street have only hardened. __ New Yorker

All of this is particularly bad news for Bernie Sanders, as he now has fewer vacation spots in Latin America where he can feel truly safe and at home. Regardless, most rational observers can readily comprehend that when socialists rule, hellholes tend to follow — as soon as the unfortunate places run out of “other people’s money.”

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The downfall of socialist utopias begins the moment they are installed into power. Trump did not start these lefty paradises on their downward paths, but he will be glad to help expose them to the world for the bloody failures they are. As Mexico flirts with electing a smirking, lying leftist of its own, the amigos to the south of the US border need to understand that Trump plays a – deeper game than his tweets and outburts reveal. Mexico is relatively wealthy — as was Venezuela before Chavez. If Mexicans want to elect a Chavez of their own, perhaps they will deserve to become another Venezuela. But a Mexican Venezuela must also deal with the shadow government of drug lords who control large swathes of the country, and pull the strings on many of Mexico’s judges, politicians, police, and federales. It will not be a pretty fall if the people of Mexico decide to pursue the well-trodden downward path of leftist utopias.

Hillary Update:

And somewhere, in a dark room, Felonia Milhous von Pantsuit sits sucking down tumblers of Canadian Club and dreaming of the American Venezuela that might have been. __ Winning and Losing

Posted in Economics, Ideology, Politics | Tagged | 1 Comment

Unrepentant Failed Doomer Paul Ehrlich After 50 Years: Still Predicting Total Collapse of Civilisation “Any Day Now”

Stanford biologist Paul R. Ehrlich published the book of doom “The Population Bomb” 50 years ago, with his wife. According to Ehrlich, catastrophic global collapse was inevitable by the 1970s — or the 1980s at the latest. Ehrlich has managed to stay alive up until now, but has apparently not learned anything after all those decades of failed predictions:

In 1968, 50 years ago, Paul Ehrlich and his wife published The Population Bomb, which famously predicted mass starvation by the end of the next decade. Ehrlich’s predictions failed largely because of the green revolution, the dramatic increase in agricultural productivity. You would think that being famous for a dramatically failed prediction would bring humility, but Ehrlich is still at it. In a recent interview he argues that the collapse of civilization is a “near certainty” within decades. __ Neurologica blog

Doom is certain to come to Ehrlich himself (born 1932), and fairly soon, as it comes to all doomers eventually. Perhaps he would like to take the rest of the world with him, but he can’t. That does not stop him from trying to push his abject pessimism onto as many of his fellow Terrans as possible.

The First Earth Day Happened in April of 1970

Here are some of Paul Ehrlich’s predictions from the 1970s:

Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 issue of Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

“Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born,” wrote Paul Ehrlich in a 1969 essay titled “Eco-Catastrophe! “By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”

Paul Ehrlich [predicted] in 1970 that “air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” Ehrlich sketched a scenario in which 200,000 Americans would die in 1973 during “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles.

Paul Ehrlich warned in the May 1970 issue of Audubon that DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons “may have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945.” Ehrlich warned that Americans born since 1946…now had a life expectancy of only 49 years, and he predicted that if current patterns continued this expectancy would reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out. (Note: According to the most recent CDC report, life expectancy in the US is 78.8 years).

In 1975, Paul Ehrlich predicted that “since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rainforests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.” __ Intellectual Takeout

Paul Ehrlich is Not the Only True Believing Doom Prophet

Back in the 1970s, doomers had not adopted the climate apocalypse cult’s theme of “anthropogenic global warming doom,” but they had plenty of “reasons” to believe the world was just about to end:

Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”

“It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” declared Denis Hayes, the chief organizer for Earth Day, in the Spring 1970 issue of The Living Wilderness.

“We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment.

The day after the first Earth Day, the New York Times editorial page warned, “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”

Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

In January 1970, Life reported, “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”

Ecologist Kenneth Watt told Time that, “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.” __ Spectacularly Wrong

Rather than “global warming doom,” the doomers of 1970 were more likely to believe in “global cooling doom.” As air pollution choked human populations and blocked sunlight, agriculture would become impossible, starvation would become commonplace, and most of the human population would die before the year 2000 of starvation, disease, global cooling, energy scarcity, and pollution.

Now We Have the Climate Apocalypse Cult and Many of their Predictions Sound Familiar

Unfortunately, if we follow the predictions of the modern crop of climate doomers, we are almost certain to destroy our economies as a result of skyrocketing energy costs resulting in energy scarcity and energy starvation. Advanced societies cannot survive without abundant and affordable high quality energy supplies — and that is exactly what our mainstream doomers in the media, academia, thinktanks, and government are trying to destroy through imbecilic energy policies:

In 2017, the share of electricity coming from wind and solar was 53 percent in Denmark, 26 percent in Germany, and 23 percent in California. Denmark and Germany have the first and second most expensive electricity in Europe.

By reporting on the declining costs of solar panels and wind turbines but not on how they increase electricity prices, journalists are — intentionally or unintentionally — misleading policymakers and the public about those two technologies.

The Los Angeles Times last year reported that California’s electricity prices were rising, but failed to connect the price rise to renewables, provoking a sharp rebuttal from UC Berkeley economist James Bushnell.

“The story of how California’s electric system got to its current state is a long and gory one,” Bushnell wrote, but “the dominant policy driver in the electricity sector has unquestionably been a focus on developing renewable sources of electricity generation.”

Part of the problem is that many [journalists and environmentalists] don’t understand electricity. They think of electricity as a commodity when it is, in fact, a service…

__ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/04/23/if-solar-and-wind-are-so-cheap-why-are-they-making-electricity-more-expensive/#3762589c1dc6

Anyone who understands grid-scale electric power delivery will instantly see the mismatch between large wind and solar farms and the underlying demands for electrical energy in advanced societies. Energy consumers in Germany, California, and South Australia are beginning to feel the sting from idiotic energy policies adopted by their elected government officials and their bureaucratic agencies.

On a moment to moment basis, energy production by wind and solar is chaotic and unpredictable. Likewise, on a moment to moment basis, energy demands by advanced societies are chaotic and unpredictable. This is obvious to anyone who is both honest and informed. “Averages” for demand and supply are not relevant to the moment to moment high wire act of keeping the power grid running. Trying to match a chaotic supply with a chaotic demand is a recipe for disaster. But the risk of disaster has never stopped true believing ideologues in the past, and is unlikely to stop them in the future. Only citizens and voters can hold back the disaster that the adoption of these green energy “solutions” are certain to bring to your hometown if nobody stops these earnest but utterly ignorant crusaders.

It is ironic that these prophets of climate apocalypse doom and other forms of ideological doom carry more certain forms of doom in their arrogantly ignorant wakes, but that is just the shape of it.

Without Electric Power, Up to 90% of Residents in Advanced Societies Would Die Within One Year

Humans have enough hydrocarbon energy resources to last for many decades, and perhaps centuries. But only advanced nuclear power has both the energy density and global reserves to safely, affordably, and cleanly power advanced human civilisations for at least the next tens or hundreds of thousands of years.

That much time should allow human ingenuity to develop even better forms of energy and power than advanced fission and fusion. But only if we can fend off the self-assured doomers and keep them from destroying everyone through their “cures which turn out to be infinitely worse than the diagnosed disease.”

The quickest way to turn a population of independent people into a society of helpless sheep, is to cut their access to critical infrastructures. If we follow the policy prescriptions of today’s crop of doomers in academia, media, government, and other social institutions, we will see for ourselves how quickly things can fall apart.

The idiocy of grid-scale wind and solar

Forbes EROEI for Major Energy Forms
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/02/11/eroi-a-tool-to-predict-the-best-energy-mix/#4f3b2636a027
Nuclear Ranks Best on Energy Return for Investment

Why alarmists are wrong on climate apocalypse

Important background reading (PDF download): https://www.neon-energie.de/Hirth-2013-Market-Value-Renewables-Solar-Wind-Power-Variability-Price.pdf

Secrets of Sutainable Energy

Posted in Doom, Electrical Power Grid, Energy, Environment, Everything You Think You Know Just Ain't So, Green Quagmire | Tagged | 3 Comments

Jordan Peterson vs. the “Mad Dog Atheists”

Conscious Intelligence is Not a Logical Proposition

Clinical psychologist Jordan Peterson has staked out a large territory in the sphere of public discussion, which borders on several distinctly different areas of thought and belief. These multiple “boundary lines” have become lightning rods of controversy, as “experts” of various types come to feel that an outsider is treading upon their treasured turf.

One of the most interesting lines of controversy between Professor Peterson and antagonists, involves the opposition of militant atheists to Peterson’s symbolic and allegorical treatment of religious thought and the Christian bible.

The main problem that I see with this controversial cross-border interaction, is that two distinct languages are being spoken on either side of the dividing line. The “true believer” atheists are using the language of logical propositions, while Dr. Peterson is using a much deeper language of metaphor and allegory. It could be argued that logical propositions may be suitable for describing how a conscious intelligence might arrive at reasonable moral values or judgments — although that is open to debate. But I submit that the unconscious mental processes which comprise almost the entirety of what is happening in the brain, function far from any hint of propositional logic. And understanding this moves the entire discussion to an entirely different foundation than what “born again” atheists might believe in their hearts of atheist faith.

The Rider and the Elephant

The overwhelming mass of our brains is dedicated to unconscious processing — like “the rider and the elephant” analogy by psychologist Jonathan Haidt:

Even more than conscious intelligence, unconscious intelligence is not a logical proposition — not even a complex set of logical propositions. This is particularly true when dealing with morals, values, and questions of ethics. Consider the following approach to value judgments formulated by social psychologist Jonathan Haidt:

The Intuitive Judgment Link
We reach our moral judgments effortlessly through moral intuitions.

The Post Hoc Reasoning Link
Moral reasoning, on the other hand, is an effortful process that takes place after judgments are reached.

The Reasoned Persuasion Link
We produce and verbally express our moral reasoning in order to justify the conclusions we have already made.

The Social Persuasion Link
We are all highly susceptible to group norms of morality, even to the mere knowledge that our associates have a moral judgment.

__ Source

This description seems closer to the underlying reality than the idea that we reach value judgments or moral decisions using conventional logic. Logical reasoning is indeed a “johnny come lately” to the evolutionary party. Much like statistical reasoning, it is not a natural style of thought for the untrained brain. When Harris, Dennett, Dawkins, and Hitchens attempt to refute religious approaches to thought using propositional logic, they are committing a basic logical fallacy of “epistemological mismatch.”

It is true that “scientific reasoning” has opened the world of possibilities for humans to an extent undreamed of several hundred years ago. And it is likewise true that propositional logic in the form of “algorithmic reasoning” has sped up and extended the development of several areas of human enterprise in an impressive manner.

And yet there are definite limits to scientific and logical reasoning which must be faced and dealt with by intelligent beings, if humans are to use their distinctly evolved brains to achieve higher levels of existence.

Propositional Logic vs. Invisible Metaphor

The ongoing debates between philosophical neuroscientist Sam Harris and philosophical clinical psychologist Jordan Peterson highlight this epistemological difference. Our brains did not evolve along logical lines, but rather under the influence of a long chain of environmental conditions over hundreds of millions of years. As a result, only a relatively few humans — even today — can do science, math, statistics, or careful rational thinking of any kind at very high levels.

I am reminded of the old “Prolog vs. Lisp” controversy a few decades ago in Artificial Intelligence research. Prolog is clearly superior for abstracting logical propositions, but Lisp has distinct strengths of its own, making it a better language to use for other forms of high level abstraction.

Prolog lost much of its appeal as cognition researchers came to understand the massive differences between logical propositions and the generation of intelligent output. The “limits of logic” parallel the “limits of science” in many ways. Born again atheists such as Sam Harris attempt to stretch the concept of “science” far beyond any reasonable limits, in order to plant the flag of victory of conscious logical propositions over the unconscious and massive elephant of irrationality that lies beneath. The evolved human brain is that elephant, and evolution continues — for now — to be the master, in this ongoing master-slave relationship.

Al Fin was Atheist Before Atheism was Cool

Back in the early 2000s, four influential books on atheism were published by 4 men belonging to a group sometimes referred to as “The New Atheists.”

On September 30, 2007 four prominent atheists (Richard Dawkins, Sam Harris, Christopher Hitchens and Daniel Dennett) met at Hitchens’ residence in Washington, D.C., for a private two-hour unmoderated discussion. The event was videotaped and titled “The Four Horsemen”.[18]

Personally, I had been an “atheist” for many years, and in addition I had long admired some of the work of Dawkins and Dennett, and was sympathetic with some of Hitchens’ work. But after skimming these works and watching some videos of the different men describing their views, I was struck by the militancy and the quasi-religious proselytisation aspects of much of the atheism being presented by this group.

The experience cast a negative pall over my view of several authors whom I would otherwise find generally enlightening. Why? The sheer militant superficiality of their zeal. They reminded me of christian crusaders off the kill the jew and the mohammedan, in any manifestation whatsoever.

I was once a Christian, and am now an “atheist.” But I came to my “atheism” honestly, and maintained deep sympathies toward others who chose — for their own reasons — to believe otherwise than myself. I had no reason to want to “convert” them. Probably if we were living in the age of the crusades or the Spanish Inquisition I would see this divide differently. But it is only the muslims today who are killing in the name of religion — at least outside of Africa. Even Northern Ireland seems to have brought about a de facto peace between the green and the orange.

Jordan Peterson Chooses the Evolutionary Path

Rather than trying to force the round brain into a square hole of propositional logic, Peterson is willing to follow the evolutionary twists and turns of the irrational human mind. As a research scientist — and clinician — in the field of psychology, Peterson is deeply immersed in both the scientific literature and the clinical experience of real human beings in all their glorious dysfunction.

But Peterson went further. Understanding too well the limits of science and logic, Peterson dove into the works of Nietzsche, Dostoevsky, Solzhenitsyn, Jung, Rogers, and many more — in an attempt to understand more clearly the nature of our evolved brains, and especially the minds they generate. He devoted 3 hours of every day for between 15 and 20 years to this quest for understanding, and the product was the book “Maps of Meaning.” A lecture series by the same name is available (in multiple iterations) free for viewing on YouTube.

Let’s be frank (and don’t call me Shirley!). No one person can master all of the mental pursuits which Jordan Peterson is attempting. But it is a measure of the soundness and robust resilience of his complex psyche that he is able to achieve what he has done. Peterson delivers more insights in many single videos than most people will ever absorb in their entire lifetimes. Metaphor, allegory, and symbol penetrate much more deeply than propositional logic can do — at least when it comes to the human experience, which is the only experience we are capable of having.

And make no mistake: Peterson is not finished yet. Although currently sidetracked and overwhelmed by speaking engagements, travel, requests for interviews, and other demands on his time, he has also been working on a series of videos on The Psychological Significance of Biblical Stories. Although I am no longer particularly interested in “biblical stories,” I will likely take the time to look in on most of these new videos. Why? Because of the insight which Peterson brings to virtually everything he approaches. Scientific, clinical, philosophical, and personal insights, which are unique to him because of the combination of his evolved genetic complement and his unique experiences over time.

Why I am an “Atheist” and Not an Atheist

Al Fin is an “Atheist” in quotes, because the entire idea of atheism is absurd. There is no credible or consistent definition of “god” to which a person can declare his non-belief. Every believer holds a different conception of “god” in his heart. And for many, it is the belief in this being which provides meaning to their lives — and a reason to continue living. While an atheist might find satisfaction in tearing down another person’s deepest source of personal value, an “Atheist” certainly would not.

Most atheists are too superficial in their understanding of evolved mind and culture. They stop digging just when things get interesting, certain that they have already discovered “truth.” But there are different epistemologies, with different abilities to measure different facets of real world realities. Settling for merely one of many without taking a broader view is the mark of someone who quits too early in the pursuit.

Take your time. Experience life while learning about yourself and others. Sample widely. Choose wisely while being true to yourself. Keep a sharp and open mind. Make yourself very Dangerous, just in case.

Book recommendation: Critique of Religion and Philosophy by philosopher Walter Kaufmann

Posted in Cognition, Jordan Peterson, Knowledge, Machine Intelligence, Science | Tagged | 8 Comments

Russia Backs Away from International Space Launch Market

Russia Once Called SpaceX “A Nice Trick”


But now Russia is running up the white flag and surrendering to SpaceX — and you don’t surrender to “a nice trick.” You surrender to a force that has defeated you.

As recently as 2013, Russia controlled about half of the global commercial launch industry with its fleet of rockets, including the Proton boosters. But technical problems with the Proton, as well as competition from SpaceX and other players, has substantially eroded the Russian share. This year, it may only have about 10 percent of the commercial satellite launch market, compared to as much as 50 percent for SpaceX.

… On Tuesday… Russia’s chief spaceflight official, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, made a remarkable comment about that country’s competition with SpaceX.

“The share of launch vehicles is as small as 4 percent of the overall market of space services,” Rogozin said in an interview with a Russian television station. “The 4 percent stake isn’t worth the effort to try to elbow Musk and China aside. Payloads manufacturing is where good money can be made.”

According to an independent analysis, the global launch market is worth about $5.5 billion annually. Losing its half-share of this market, therefore, has probably cost the Russians about $2 billion, which is a significant fraction of its non-military aerospace budget. __ https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/04/russia-appears-to-have-surrendered-to-spacex-in-the-global-launch-market/

But Russia isn’t doing so well in the “payloads manufacturing” business either. In fact, across the span of high tech manufacturing, Russia is being severely challenged by international competition. If not for the captive market of military and nuclear manufacturing, Russia’s high tech manufacturing sector would be in serious trouble.

Space Surrender Reminiscent of Great Fracking Bluff

Until very recently, the Russian view of the North American Oil & Gas Renaissance was to “deny!deny!deny!”. According to Putin and the Kremlin flunkies and trolls, North American shale oil & gas was a joke, destined to collapse “any day now.” And they played the same song for almost a decade with minimal, if any, revision. Years after oil & gas prices collapsed in 2014, Russia was still claiming that North American oil & gas production was not having any appreciable impact on the Russian economy.

Russia Oil Curse Economy
Wikipedia: Russia Export Treemap

The graphic above gives cause to question such claims. In fact, anything that affects international oil & gas prices will strongly influence the Russian economy.

Kremlin Mocks What She Fears

When the Kremlin is afraid of something, its first response is to mock it and deny its existence and/or its importance. This is a standard operating procedure seen during the Soviet years and during the Putin years. But there may come a day when the Kremlin needs some credibility, and finds that it has squandered it all.

SpaceX has been changing the equation of space launch for over 6 years now, which should have given Russia plenty of time to adapt to the challenge. But for many reasons, Russian industry is old and tired, cranky and stiff. Rich in grandiose vapourware announcements of “startling innovations”, mediocre in the prototype, but very very weak in actual mass production. It is becoming a Russian cliche.

Russian Defence Production Follies

Russian admirals have been aware of the fact that they won’t have much of a navy by the 2020s unless these older ships are replaced. The problem is that the older ships cannot be refurbished or upgraded because that would cost more than buying new ones, These older ships are not just falling apart, but because there was not any money available right after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, there were few repairs and no upgrades during the 1990s.

… Most of Russia’s warship building capability (experience and kills) disappeared during 1991… Since the late 1990s, most of the Russian construction effort went into finishing a few subs and building some surface ships for export. Even these subs had serious construction problems. Mainly it was quality control and the navy refused to accept ships, especially subs that could not pass sea trials. Apparently, the ship yards were ordered to put all their efforts into the subs and eventually some of these limped into service.

… Now the Russian navy is in desperate shape. The latest example of how this is working out can be seen in the continuing delays getting the new class of 4,500 ton frigates (the Gorshkov class or “Project 22350”) into service. Construction on these began in 2006 but by 2010 only one had been launched and it was still only half complete. The navy wanted twenty Gorshkovs to replace the Cold War era Sovremenny class destroyers and Burevestnik class frigates. The government has only promised money for twelve Gorshkov sand has since raised that to fifteen. But so far the first Gorshkov has not passed sea trials. This ship was commissioned in 2017 but could not enter service until it passed the sea trials. So far the Gorshkov has not done so. The latest delay is the failure of the anti-aircraft missile system to function properly. There are also problems with the engines. The builder says all will be ready by July. A second Gorshkov was launched in 2014 and is to be ready for sea trials in 2018. A third Gorshkov is under construction but the launch date is unknown because another side effect of the Ukraine invasion was Ukraine refusing to supply any more naval turbines. Russia said it was having a Russian firm begin construction but that is behind schedule and now it looks like no more Gorshkovs (aside from the first two) will be available for completion until the early 2020s. __ StrategyPage

Whether you are talking about ships, planes, helicopters, tanks, or missile forces, the story is the same. Loud claims about the capabilities of weapons systems are made, while the darker realities behind the propaganda screens tell a different story. And given the massive levels of corruption across Russian industry, even a doubling of current oil prices would not allow Russia to make up the skills and innovation deficit across the industrial spectrum. Russia no longer has the necessary talent to do what would have to be done to back up its propaganda releases.

And that is very bad, because the Kremlin is getting Russia involved in a large number of wars and quasi-wars:

… the Kremlin has gotten involved in “too many fronts,” has “too few resources,” and “absolutely no friends,” a situation that has prompted Putin to talk about the use of nuclear “wonder weapons” not as a last resort “but as the only one” ___ (rosbalt.ru/blogs/2018/04/10/1695422.html) via WOE2.

The civilian homefront is losing its strength and cohesiveness in a weakening economy, encouraging ever increasing brain drain and capital flight abroad. Tipping point mechanisms eventually take hold, making decline unstoppable.

Russians’ Incomes Fall for Fourth Year in a Row, as Prices and Bankruptcies Rise…. Industrial production set a record for decline (ru-mir.net/2018/01/24/rossiyskaya-promyishlennost-postavila-rekord-po-samounichtozheniyu/), Russia’s foreign debt rose to 529 billion US dollars (.interfax.ru/business/596215), the rate of capital flight doubled from last year to this (rusnation.org/sfk/1801/1801-27.shtml), corporate defaults set a record as well (ng.ru/economics/2018-01-23/4_7156_defolts.html), and domestic debt rose 18 percent in 2017 (graniru.org/Economy/m.267082.html). Some analysts suggested that these numbers show that the policy of the Russian Central Bank is hurting the country more than any Western sanctions could (dailystorm.ru/politika-centralnogo-banka-rossii-vrednee-chem-novye-sankcii-ssha). __ http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.cl/2018/04/a-bakers-double-dozen-of-neglected.html

But that is not true, since almost any other approach taken by the RCB would likely have led to an even faster decline.

Russia is Losing its Talent and Its Heart

It is becoming almost impossible for intelligent Russians to believe in the idea of Russia any longer — unless they are paid very well to do so. Less intelligent Kremlin trolls are a dime a dozen on internet comment sites and forums across the net, but they are not creative or interesting, so why bother reading them?

Most Russians with talent and skills wants to leave. Who can blame them? Even the best Kremlin trolls tend to work from outside of Russia, putting the lie to many of their own claims.

Drugs and alcohol provide temporary respite from reality, but the world always wins. Putin, of course, can always invade another country — if he can find the willing young men to do so.

Hope for the Best. Prepare for the Worst

More:

Brain Drain on the Rise

Half of elite students want to move abroad

Russia cannot afford to buy its new weapons

More on Russia’s shipbuilding fiasco

Posted in Brain Drain, Russian Decline, Space Future | Tagged | 5 Comments

Still Waiting for Peak Oil?

Evolving Concepts of Production Curves
Source

In 1920, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that “the world’s supply of recoverable petroleum” was no more than 60 billion barrels. It was wrong. The world has already produced 1,400 billion barrels of oil. Worldwide, there is about 1,700 billion barrels of oil in reserve – nearly a 60-year supply at current production rates. And the size of the ultimate resource is likely to be greater than 10 trillion barrels.

Peak oil predictions and other Malthusian prognostications of resource limits have failed repeatedly for decades….

Oil and other fossil fuels will continue to be our primary energy sources through the end of this century because they offer four great advantages. Compared to renewables, fossil fuels are inexpensive, reliable, abundant, and concentrated. The age of oil is far from being eclipsed. We have barely begun to exploit unconventional oil resources. The western U.S. alone contains at least 2 trillion barrels of petroleum in oil shale formations. At a current U.S. annual consumption rate of 7.2 billion barrels, that’s a 278-year supply.

___ Peak Oil Keeps Everyone Waiting at the Altar

The Permian Basin Revolution

Conventional orthodoxy tells us that we are running out of hydrocarbons — but even if we were not running out of hydrocarbons, it tells us, we would still need to stop using them in order to save the planet. But what if the opposite were true? What if we can only save the planet — and modern civilisation — by continuing to use hydrocarbons in ways that are ever smarter, ever more efficient (at least until advanced nuclear power comes of age)?

Alex Epstein of the Center for Industrial Progress explains how modern societies have cleaned up our water, air and streets using the very energy sources you may not have expected–oil, coal and natural gas. __ http://capitalismmagazine.com/2018/04/fossil-fuels-the-greenest-energy/

Energy Density Comparison from Wikipedia
Fusion, Fission Orders of Magnitude Better than Chemical and Other Energy Sources


We know that nuclear reactions are “orders of magnitude” more energy dense than chemical reactions — such as combustion of fossil fuels. In the long run, humans will have to use nuclear energy to provide most of the heat and electric power that advanced human civilisations will use. But unfortunately, the same Luddite organisations that oppose the use of hydrocarbons also are hysterically opposed to the use of all forms of nuclear power.

Humans need to develop safer, more efficient, and more affordable ways of using hydrocarbons, nuclear fission, and eventually nuclear fusion. But political forces of a most obtuse nature are keeping us from moving into a more abundant and expansive energy future.

It is obvious to anyone who looks closely, that leftist organisations of political activism are mainly interested in bringing European and Anglospheric nations to their knees — whether via energy starvation, carbon hysteria, zero-threshold radiation hysteria, death by multicultural immigration overload, or by any means necessary.

It is up to us to be sure not to let these perverse miscreants of the anti-human persuasion be successful in their mission to cut civilisation off at the knees.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Posted in Peak Oil | Tagged , | 4 Comments

What to Eat When All the Food is Gone

After TSHTF, most stored food supplies will rapidly dwindle and vanish. Livestock will be quickly butchered and eaten — although without freezers and food preservation skills, most of the meat will be wasted. Wild game will quickly disappear, and most people cannot distinguish safe plants and mushrooms. What will you eat when the easy food is gone?

A few suggestions:

  1. Grasshoppers and Crickets
  2. Ants
  3. Termites
  4. Grubs
  5. Potato Bug
  6. Earthworms (Cook before eating)
  7. Stinkbugs
  8. Scorpions (Best eaten dead)
  9. __ 8 Edible Survival Bugs

The gourmet bug eater’s guide

Eating bugs–or at least products made from bugs–has been growing in popularity. For a few years, it’s been possible to buy cricket snacks such as protein bars made with cricket flour or cricket chips (like Chirps) at some grocery stores or online. But for insect food to fulfill its sustainable promise of supplying protein without the massive carbon and land footprint of beef, it will have to be much more widely available, and more affordable. __ FastCompany

You may need to adjust your present concept of “food.”

Crickets, fruit flies, grasshoppers, and mealworms are all being cultivated for use in consumer food products. Grasshopper farms like Israel’s Hargol says they are racing to increase the production capacity of their operations as demand for this alternative protein is higher than current supply. __ Insect Farm Startups

Insects Make Good Livestock Feed Too

This insect feed powder “smells like roasted peanuts:”

Enterra Feed, one of an emerging crop of insect growers, will process the bugs into protein-rich food for fish, poultry – even pets. After being fattened up, the fly larvae will be roasted, dried and bagged or pressed to extract oils, then milled into a brown powder that smells like roasted peanuts. __ Reuters

Hamburger superstar McDonald’s is investigating putting insect protein into its chicken feed, to provide a more natural alternative to soy protein. Chickens seem to enjoy eating insects, and humans certainly seem to enjoy eating chickens.

One way or another humans will soon be eating a lot more insects — either directly, or via insect-fed livestock such as chicken, cattle, and fish.

Insects are a natural diet for many fish [and chicken] but can also provide the high levels of protein livestock farmers want for their cattle to promote animal growth. __ agfundernews

The Trend Toward Eating Insects is Clear for Man and Beast

After TSHTF you may need to learn to catch insects. Sooner or later, you will get tired of having to catch them. Most foods are not available all year round in the wild. You will want to learn to grow them yourself.

Since the dawn of man, insects and their tiny relatives have been eating humans and sucking their blood. It is time for humans to return the favour, and begin eating insects and other rapidly proliferating small animals. They are nutritional, and can be grown quickly and readily just about anywhere.

There is no need to wait until TSHTF to savour these naughty little delicacies, although you certainly may wait if you wish. But do not wait to learn the skills of growing these tiny nutritious treats, and cultivating the secrets of preparing them in an appetizing manner.

Insect Farming (Wikipedia)

Posted in Agriculture, Insects | Tagged

On Putting the Freeloaders Back to Work

In case you still believe that Donald Trump is not accomplishing important work behind the Twitter smokescreen, consider the issue of “welfare reform,” otherwise known as putting the freeloaders back to work.

According to government statistics, there are about 6.9 million unemployed in the US, and roughly 6.2 million available jobs. The match between jobs available and people currently out of work is not perfect, but people who want to and intend to work can usually find a starter job to work up from in the Trump economy.

Overly Generous and Over-available Welfare Shifts Incentives

Unfortunately, it is in the human nature of many persons to not want to do work unless they need to do so. And if someone will pay them not to work — as in welfare etc. — their incentives are shifted toward not working.

President Trump wants to shift the incentives back:

Right now, America combines near-record-low unemployment with near-record-high welfare dependency — the result of state-level eligibility exemptions, federal loopholes and policies that put work on the back burner. Many of these policies created incentives for able-bodied adults to sit on the sidelines — even though there is good, well-paying work to be done. The resulting safety net isn’t a safety net at all — it has entrapped able-bodied adults in dependency and threatened resources for the truly needy.

But welfare reform can change that. And the Trump administration has just given agency leaders a road map to do so.

The executive order, signed Tuesday afternoon, lays out principles to encourage economic mobility through work — a tactic that we’ve seen succeed in states across the nation. It calls for a strengthened work requirement for able-bodied adults, building off the requirement established in the 1996 bipartisan welfare reform that requires able-bodied adults on food stamps to work, train or volunteer for at least 20 hours per week. __ New York Post

The late president Obama expanded availability and generosity of welfare benefits to record levels, with predictable results. The number of people on welfare exploded. Of course, with the dismal economy that Obama provided to them, opportunities were not what they should have been. Even so, perhaps every grammar school student should be sent on a tour of sub Saharan Africa to gain an understanding of what true poverty and lack of opportunity look like.

Manufacturing Jobs Reappear

According to the U.S. Labor Department, the number of manufacturing jobs nationwide grew by just 0.1%, or 18,000, in 2016, the last year of the Obama presidency. But since the beginning of 2017, manufacturing employment growth has averaged more than 18,700 a month, according to National Association of Manufacturers economist Chad Moutray. In March, even as overall payroll job growth slowed, manufacturers added another 22,000 workers.

The surprising resilience of manufacturing employment is good news for American workers.

On average, according to the U.S. Commerce Department, annual compensation (including the cash value of health insurance, pension fund contributions, and other noncash benefits as well as wages and salaries) per American manufacturing employee is $77,268, or roughly 60 percent higher than per employee compensation across the entire nonagricultural private sector. __ Source

Start-ups and the Gig/Patchwork Economy

Besides jobs that are available already, US residents can “create their own jobs” by starting their own businesses and/or dipping their feet into the gig-patchwork economy:

The gig economy is booming. And some think gig work could become the norm in the future. A study released in September by the Freelancers Union and Upwork predicts freelancers will make up a majority of the U.S. workforce within a decade.

“The world of work is changing, the gig economy is here, it’s here to stay, it’s growing, and you best prepare to work that way,” says Diane Mulcahy who teaches a class on the gig economy at Babson College.

And the gig economy is not just about tech-based platforms, like TaskRabbit. That’s less than 1 percent of the gig economy, according to a 2016 Harvard-Princeton study. The gig economy is mostly freelancers, contractors and part-time workers. That’s because companies now offer fewer full-time jobs.

“If you look at our most highly valued and high growth companies out in Silicon Valley — Facebook, Dropbox, Twilio, Twitter — they’re not creating full-time jobs at the same rate as, let’s say, you know, the old GEs of the day where they have 300,000 full-time employees,” says Mulcahy, who has also written a book about the gig economy.

Gig work is also on the rise because people like the flexibility of it, and technology has made it easier to connect people to jobs.

The patchwork or “gig” economy consists of people who choose to go from “gig” to “gig,” in a freelance manner. It is a form of self-employment or independent contractor status. At this time, most patchworkers act as the agents, brokers, and managers of their work. But there is an entire looming industry and software sector growing up around the phenomenon.

Once a person experiences success in self-employment, he will look at the entire economy — and how politics infringes on the economy — in a different way.

Education for the Gig/Patchwork will Be A Horse of a Different Colour

The dominant viewpoint toward education in North America revolves around the old “train to get a job or specific career” mentality. But what happens when most people have several different careers? What happens when they are able to shift from one area of work to another at the drop of a dime — or a shift in economic conditions? In such a situation, it is the broadly competent and highly flexible worker who is at an advantage. How do you educate and train someone to be that kind of worker? Certainly not via the mainstream antiquated system of education that exists now.

Dangerous Children master at least 3 distinct ways to achieve financial independence by the age of 18. But they are not conventional children, and stay far from the mainstream in virtually every way — especially in the sense that they are always ready to deal with rapid changes.

Pay attention. Make provisions for a changing world.

Posted in Donald Trump, Economics | Tagged , | 6 Comments

A Warning About Antidepressants

We Already Knew About This:

… most of the perpetrators of mass murder over the past fifteen to twenty years had been taking prescription medicines at the time of their killings, and the drugs they had been taking were usually SSRIs or other medications commonly used to treat depression and/or anxiety disorders. __ http://www.offthegridnews.com/alternative-health/psychiatric-drugs-and-mass-murder-exploring-the-connection/

More

And we already knew that antidepressants predispose recipients to behaviours such as suicide.

An analysis of 70 trials of the most common antidepressants – involving more than 18,000 people – found they doubled the risk of suicide and aggressive behaviour in under 18s. __ Telegraph

But Now We Are Learning How Hard It is to Stop Taking Them

Patients who try to stop taking the drugs often say they cannot. In a recent survey of 250 long-term users of psychiatric drugs — most commonly antidepressants — about half who wound down their prescriptions rated the withdrawal as severe. Nearly half who tried to quit could not do so because of these symptoms

Antidepressants are not harmless; they commonly cause emotional numbing, sexual problems like a lack of desire or erectile dysfunction and weight gain. Long-term users report in interviews a creeping unease that is hard to measure: Daily pill-popping leaves them doubting their own resilience, they say.

“We’ve come to a place, at least in the West, where it seems every other person is depressed and on medication,” said Edward Shorter, a historian of psychiatry at the University of Toronto. “You do have to wonder what that says about our culture.”

__ NYT

Pharmaceutical companies lobby government officials far more intensely than small organisations such as the National Rifle Association. So when US national media goes off half-cocked over the relationship between gun rights and school shootings — but “forgets” to mention the relationship between psychiatric drugs and mass shootings — we have to wonder whose bread is being buttered by whom.

Now that we are discovering how addictive psychiatric drugs can be — and how subtly they can change brains and behaviours — alarm bells should be ringing around the globe. But they are not, and we should be asking why.

Alternatives to Antidepressants are Looking More Attractive

All of a sudden, non-drug approaches to treating anxiety and depression are more appealing. Cognitive Behavioural Therapy, for example, provides all the benefits of drug treatment without the many unfortunate side effects.

Mindfulness approaches to treating anxiety and depression likewise provide profound benefits to persons who apply themselves to the practise. The benefits of mindfulness practise go far beyond the treatment of anxiety and depression, of course. Long term practitioners of the discipline often experience beneficial changes to their brain circuitry, physical health, thought patterns, personal insight, and general discernment of the world around them.

Conventional psychotherapy and psychoanalysis have had mixed results over the decades since Freud, but recent developments by clinical psychologists such as Jordan Peterson offer new hope for practical person-directed improvement in life satisfaction. The combination of Peterson’s “Understand Myself” self test, and his “Self-Authoring” suite — used with or without the associated “Writing Guide” — open doors to self understanding and self-change which can be difficult to reach in other ways.

Other unconventional forms of treating depression include various types of electrical and magnetic stimulation, neurofeedback and special custom video games may help some, hypnosis, exercise, art therapy, music therapy, and especially “laughter therapy,” are more non-pharmaceutical approaches that are seriously worth trying.

Antidepressant drugs can be lifesavers in some instances. But they are two-edged swords, and should not be used nearly to the extent that is being done by the medical and mental health professions.

The cure for a life that seems to be not worth living, is to get a life that is worth living. Jordan Peterson is one of the clearest contemporary guides to that approach, and his book “12 Rules for Life” is an excellent start for most people. Many other authors and clinicians offer effective approaches to moving from here to a better place.

Taking a pill is a lazy approach to solving most problems in life, and is one of the symptoms that something is very badly wrong with modern culture.

It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Posted in Cognition, Human Brain, Medicine | Tagged | 1 Comment

Forced Sterilisation of African Women: Can We Stop It in Time?

If the people of one continent of Earth continue to pursue exponential population growth over the next century, the population of the planet could easily double or even triple. Radical environmentalists are feeling increasingly threatened by the inability of African populations to reduce their growth rates, although so far they are largely prevented by political correctness from mentioning their growing alarm thru public channels.


Most of the world’s nations are experiencing drops in population growth. Africa is different, and for some reason population growth rates have increased in Africa — rather than decrease. Brian Wang’s Nextbigfuture website sounds the warning over recent increases for population growth in Africa.

Africa’s population growth rate has not declined since 1955.

The annual population growth rate increased from 2.22% in 1955 to 2.85% in 1985.
Then it went down to 2.47% in 2000 but then went back up to 2.60% in 2010-2015 and is now at 2.52%.

There is no firmly established downward trend in population growth in Africa. __ NextBigFuture


Exponential growth of animal populations tends to reach an upper limit set by limited food supplies or other environmental factors. Human ingenuity in populations of Europe, the Anglosphere, East Asia, and South Asia have allowed humans to surmount prior Malthusian limits to growth, so far.

But such populations have voluntarily limited their own population growth at more stable levels, making it easier to provide their people with a prosperous lifestyle. Nations of Africa and other nations such as Pakistan, have not shown a capacity for such self-limitation.

In most countries [of Africa], the population growth is in excess of 2% every year.

In addition, there is a high proportion of younger people within the Africa population as a whole, with reports that 41% of the African population is under the age of 15. __ World Population Review

Africa is a special case, in that African populations themselves have not been the source for the ingenious improvements in food production, health care, vaccines, pharmaceuticals, transportation, communication, energy, logistics, and other technologies which allowed populations around the world to leap over earlier barriers to human population growth. In other words, Africa’s populations are being allowed to grow because their countries are recipients of abundant aide and technology transfer from more advanced parts of the world.

Other Populations Of the World are Experiencing Much Lower Growth

In other parts of the world, young women have the freedom and the will to have fewer children than their mothers and grandmothers may have had. This is due to improved education for women and a proliferation of career paths — along with improved choices for birth control. In addition, cultural changes have channeled more women away from traditional lives toward more materialistic and hedonistic lifestyles which leave much less room and time for children.

In Africa, by contrast, lifestyle choices of girls and women are more limited. There are many reasons for this radical difference of trends in personal choices by females of different continents, but the outcome is exponential population growth for Africa, and stable population levels for most of the rest of the world.

Can Radical Environmentalists Be Stopped from Forcibly Sterilising African Women?

Radical green environmentalists understand what is happening — although they cannot publicly express their concerns or discuss their plans for dealing with what they see as a looming crisis for mother Gaia. A more covert approach is therefore necessary for them. How might they try to proceed?

A Playbook from “Tuf Voyaging”

In the science fiction novel “Tuf Voyaging” by George R. R. Martin, the protagonist finds himself forced to solve a similar problem for an entire planet whose population is growing exponentially — causing a deadly threat to the people of nearby planets.

His solution was “manna from heaven:”

S’uthlam’s population problem remains, worse than ever, as Tuf’s innovations from his previous visit were not maximally used. Its society is beginning to break down and either a terrible war or utter social collapse seems likely. Tuf labors to find a solution, and calls a meeting of all the worlds about to clash. He presents to them his solution: an edible, mildly addictive plant called “manna”, which will freely grow everywhere on S’uthlam and eliminate its hunger problems. After some arm-twisting, in which Tuf threatens to use the military might of his seedship against anyone who refuses, the hostile worlds agree to an armistice. Tuf later tells a horrified Mune that the manna will indeed feed her people, but will also inhibit the libidos of the S’uthlamese and cause widespread, but not universal, infertility. He leaves Mune to make a momentous decision for S’uthlam; it is implied that she accepts the provision of manna to forestall war and famine. __ Tuf Voyaging (Wikipedia)

It is easy to imagine something similar being done using vaccines from the UN, medicines supplied by NGOs, or using food aid from China or Germany. If environmentalist greens see the choice as being between global ruin and the distasteful use of involuntary sterilisation, it should be obvious which choice the greens of VHEMT, Dieoff.org, and other radical left environmentalist ideological foundations would likely make.

Why Do African Women Follow a Different Path?

Left wing radical environmentalists would likely act in more humane ways toward Africa in the future, if they were somehow able to influence African women to follow the path of reduced birthrates that is being followed by the women of most of the rest of the world. But despite much effort and work by UN agencies, NGOs, and global foundations and charitable groups, women in Africa are different than their sisters elsewhere, for some reason.

Could Low Population IQs Influence Life Choices?

The lower a person’s IQ, the fewer choices she may have in terms of education, career, and lifestyle. Average population IQ levels in sub Saharan Africa range between roughly 65 and 75 IQ points, by most estimates. Such persons are limited to simple tasks and occupations. There is no way that populations with such low average IQs could — on their own — build and maintain the advanced infrastructures on which more advanced societies rely.

This is why the Chinese build advanced railways in Africa, and the Russians say they will build nuclear power plants there — but without constant maintenance and support by outsiders, such advanced infrastructures will inevitably collapse. In the case of nuclear power plants, such a collapse would have long-lasting and unfortunate consequences.

What is the Best Way to Proceed?

One of the goals of the radical left green environmentalist movement has long been a radical dieoff of humans around the world. One of the quickest paths to such a dieoff would be to make hydrocarbon fuels inaccessible to most human populations. Without access to abundant and affordable hydrocarbons, virtually all populations of Earth would experience a rapid dieoff.

The reason for such a dieoff is that the planetary carrying capacity for the human species depends critically upon energy for agriculture, transportation, logistics, communications, chemical production, heating/cooling/refrigeration, pharmaceuticals, and several other critical infrastructures.

This helps to explain much of the radical left’s actions taken under the false flags of “climate change” and other related ginned-up crusades to “save the planet.”

Understanding the goals of the left is one of the first steps necessary to confront the problem of the likely hysterical and inhumane actions that will be taken by groups and persons following such an ideology.

Next, we must understand “carrying capacity,” and what it means for the diverse evolved populations of Earth and their futures.

Advanced populations that generate greater prosperity and ingenuity will necessarily reach higher “carrying capacities” for their portions of the planet, than less advanced populations. It is important that each evolved population group be allowed to rise to its own distinct “carrying capacity.”

In the case of Africa, populations have been pushed far above carrying capacities by constant outside assistance in the form of vaccines, medications, food, infrastructure construction & maintenance, and other forms of aide.

If African populations fell within stable and manageable levels, such outside aide would not be a problem — despite the induced helplessness which they create within recipient populations. If populations are artificially held at a higher carrying capacity than they could sustain for themselves, a severe letdown is inevitable sometime in the future.

The people of Europe, in particular, should ask themselves whether they wish to allow Africans to “reach their own level” now, or whether Europe would be better off to relax their assistance after African populations have doubled or tripled?

There is No Reason for Leftist Forced Sterilisation

When leftists of the 1900s promoted forced sterilisation for persons of low intelligence, they were considered progressive and advanced in their thinking by the leading intellectuals of their day. But since the days of the National Socialists of Germany in the 1930s and 1940s, such forced approaches to population change have been frowned upon.

But that will be no problem, since radical leftists have control of the echo choirs of modern media, academia, government, Hollywood, foundations, NGOs, activist groups, Silicon Valley, and environmental organisations. Whatever inhumane path they choose, the loudspeakers of dominant leftist culture will certainly back them up.

The Problem in Africa is Real, but a Leftist Engineered Dieoff is not the Answer

Humane individuals who have chosen to leave the left for reasons such as those mentioned above, will understand the need to develop better solutions which will not lead to a leftist designed holocaust — but will also not leave Europe submerged beneath a tsunami of “low carrying capacity immigrants.”

This involves treading a treacherous middle ground in order to achieve a robust and sustainable humane solution. Can it be done? Time will tell.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Posted in Africa, Idiocracy, Maintenance | Tagged ,

First Blood: Sam Harris Confronts the Echo Choir

First Blood: In Which Sam Harris Offends Ezra Klein

As long as author and provocateur Sam Harris only attacked Christians, violent Muslims, and Donald Trump, he was mostly left alone by the curtained overlords of politically correct public discourse.

But now that Harris has begun discussing the taboo topic of “race and IQ,” he is coming face to face with the dark side of the far left echo choir, which has controlled most public conversation in the US since at least the 1990s. Harris made the “mistake” of holding an honest and respectful dialogue with Charles Murray, author of the controversial book of scholarship, “The Bell Curve.”

In this case, the particular echo choir tenor to attack Harris is Ezra Klein of Vox. When the echo choir attacks someone, unless the target immediately submits and recants, the choir aims to destroy the person body and soul.

Sam Harris is bright and coherent, but he is naive. Harris himself wields a cutting and sarcastic voice against many targets, but most of them are relatively soft targets, or otherwise not likely to retaliate. But when he opens an honest — though very mild and timid — discussion of scientific evidence into links between race and IQ, he unwittingly confronts an altogether different animal, one that will do anything at all to destroy its opponents.

Since the Vox hit the fan, Harris has tried to carry on an open and honest dialogue with Journolist founder Ezra Klein, but if Sam had done his homework on Klein and his fellow echo choir singers — and the underlying movement which Ezra Klein battles for — he would never expect a good faith interaction with Klein on any topic that touches upon the dogma of the radical left.

Discussions of Race and IQ Reach the NYT OpEd Page

Perhaps partially because Sam Harris opened the door by his willingness to speak with Charles Murray, Scientist David Reich recently published an op-ed on the topic of genetics and race in the New York Times.

A recent study led by the economist Daniel Benjamin compiled information on the number of years of education from more than 400,000 people, almost all of whom were of European ancestry. After controlling for differences in socioeconomic background, he and his colleagues identified 74 genetic variations that are over-represented in genes known to be important in neurological development, each of which is incontrovertibly more common in Europeans with more years of education than in Europeans with fewer years of education. __ David Reich in NYT

Notice that the Harvard geneticist Reich is focusing more on genes, rather than race, and his short piece is full of leftist virtue signaling to prevent any blue on blue friendly fire. But Ezra Klein the journolister cannot allow any honest objectivity at all to enter into the discussion, and must always go full-pit bull savagery when “principles are at stake.”

Ezra Klein himself has been taken to task for his patent dishonesty and disingenuousness on this topic, but Klein has the cover of the entire radical left talking point journolist to cover his back.

Andrew Sullivan is another writer who has weighed in on the discussion in favour of greater openness and less censorship. But the echo choir will have none of that, if the comments following Sullivan’s piece are any indication.

The Left Cannot Afford Any Heretical Dissent At All

Anyone who breaks with the radical left’s talking points — in all their changing tortuosity — will be broken and ruined, if at all possible. Even if — as in Orwell’s 1984 — the sacred dogma changes from day to day, from moment to moment, any divergence from the dogma can result in severe penalties including outright blackballing and blacklisting. Careers are often ruined, sometimes with deadly outcomes. But the radical left journolisters could not care less about the unfortunate outcomes of their malicious, dishonest, and totally orchestrated attacks.

And That is Why Sam Harris is Bleeding First Blood

Until Harris wakes up to the true nature of the battle he has unwittingly found himself fighting in, he will be at a deadly disadvantage. If he believes his honest adherence to the rules of evidence and logic will earn him good faith treatment from Ezra Klein and the echo choir singers and journolist cabal, he is sadly mistaken.

These people will fight a malicious, totally scripted fight to take him down — unless he recants, and begins virtue signaling once again to the satisfaction of the overlords and gatekeepers.

Jordan Peterson is Thriving So Far Despite the Cabal

Sam Harris has some fundamental disagreements with Jordan Peterson on topics of evidence and truth, but thanks to Harris’ opening of a new round of public discussions on race and IQ, he finds himself on the same side of the echo choir’s attack as Peterson.

It is interesting that Sam Harris is scheduled to appear with Jordan Peterson on at least 2 or 3 occasions during Peterson’s ongoing world tour throughout this spring and summer. Perhaps Jordan can share a few secrets with Sam on how to thrive despite (or because of) attacks from radical leftists. One of the first things Sam might do is to lose his virginal naivety, stop whining about being treated unfairly by clearly dishonest leftists, and to understand how seriously he has gotten himself enmeshed in this particular battle of the long culture war. He crossed the Rubicon for reasons of his own, and he needs to learn how to move on from there as a man.

More:

Sam Harris’ Personal Growth

It was a different Sam Harris who hosted Charles Murray on that fateful podcast. In the prelude, Harris mentions that despite his reluctance to open the Pandora’s box of race and IQ, he felt compelled to do so at the sight of the violent mob attack against Charles Murray at Middlebury College.

Previously, Sam Harris had seemingly relied on a smirking, arrogant, cavalier attack on any person or idea that took his (anti-) fancy. This more thoughtful Sam Harris who speaks with Charles Murray — and who will also hopefully show up on Jordan Peterson’s world tour — is a more sympathetic character, capable of attracting a broader following than he has managed up to this point.

Watch and learn.

Posted in Genetics and Gene Expression, IQ, Philosophy | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Mike and Jordan: Unlikeliest Revolutionaries

Mike Rowe and Jordan Peterson are two of the unlikeliest revolutionaries that you can meet. Both born into relatively humble circumstances, each followed diverse and unlikely paths to become North American icons-in-revolt against the modern tyranny of incompetence — especially the destructive incompetence displayed in the “university perversion.”

Mike Rowe
Wikipedia


Mike Rowe worked many humble jobs before getting his break in the entertainment industry as an opera singer. From there he became a TV host on a number of different types of television venues. He is most famous for his work on “Dirty Jobs,” a reality TV show that formerly aired on Discovery Channel television. On that popular show he visited hundreds of small private businesses that performed work from pumping septic tanks to neutering male lambs.

Mike would become known as “the dirtiest man on TV.” He traveled to all 50 states and completed 300 different jobs, transforming cable television into a landscape of swamps, sewers, ice roads, coal mines, oil derricks, crab boats, hillbillies, and lumberjack camps. For this, he has received both the credit and the blame. __ About Mike Rowe

After several seasons, the show was cancelled and Mike Rowe decided to go full-time in promoting the skilled trades — where millions of jobs are available but go unfilled every year. The mikeroweWorks foundation promotes the skilled trades and provides scholarships to students who pursue the trades.

Now, Mike Rowe works hard to convince young people — especially young men — of the largely unheralded benefits of bypassing an expensive and uncertain college education so as to discover work that is potentially more lucrative, rewarding — and certainly more immediate — with much less debt. At the same time he works with corporate, education, and government entities in the attempt to bring the focus of training and education back to a more balanced perspective — and away from the ruinously destructive “college for all” attitude that has seduced so much of the culture to the tune of $1.3 trillion in college loan debt, and a skills gap that threatens to cripple even the best attempts to re-vitalise North American economies.

Make no mistake, Mike Rowe is a revolutionary promoting a saner, a more skilled, less indebted, and a less credential-overloaded society. Making young people more independent, competent, and prosperous is in these days a truly revolutionary pursuit.

Jordan Peterson
Wikipedia


Jordan Peterson was raised in the middle of small-town Alberta, worked a number of humble jobs in his youth, and began his college studies in political science — hoping to be able to make the world a better place via politics. He soon discovered that if he was going to make the world a better place, he would need to help individual people find their ways to being better people. To that end he pursued graduate studies in psychology at McGill, taught and researched at Harvard, then became a full time professor of psychology at U. of Toronto.

His 15 year research into a deep understanding of the roots of human longing, misery, meaning, and satisfaction, culminated in his first book, Maps of Meaning. His lecture series, Maps of Meaning, is available for free viewing anytime on YouTube.

If not for the ill-advised Bill C-16 amendment to the Canadian Human Rights Act — which mandates permissible speech in an arbitrary manner with potentially draconian punishments if not followed — Professor Peterson would likely have finished his career without significant controversy or fame. In September of 2016, Peterson began speaking out against this unprecedented perversion of English Common Law in a series of videotapes. The rest is history.

Jordan Peterson was catapulted into the awareness of the global public at large, by viral YouTube videos showing him confront social justice warrior protests, by his interviews with YouTube hosts Joe Rogan and Dave Rubin, and especially by his masterful interview on UK Channel 4 featuring feminist host Cathy Newman.

His recent book 12 Rules for Life has been a bestseller for several weeks now, and his world speaking tour appearances sell out almost as quickly as ticket sales are announced.

Why is Peterson a Revolutionary?

The video above provides some hints as to how Jordan Peterson is beginning to use his newly-broadened voice to convince young people to reject the dominant politically correct indoctrination so commonly found at universities, and choose the path of personal integrity and growth, using independent thought to discover their own personal ways to change themselves first — and then to make the world better.

Jordan Peterson — like the true clinical psychologist that he is — is working to help individuals to gain personal wisdom and strength. From there, they can move into the larger world to have a more benevolent influence than they would have had otherwise.

Make no mistake, this type of thinking is truly revolutionary, and is seen as such by leftist institutions in media, government, university, and beyond. The broader hearing such a message receives, the potentially greater an impact Peterson can have against the radical leftist crusade of death.

Both Rowe and Peterson are Revolutionaries — Each in His Own Way

By pointing to alternative paths through life than mainstream conformity, both Rowe and Peterson point young people toward more authentic and rewarding lives. To the vicious overlords of the toxic left, that represents heretical revolution.

If you personally would like to see a more expansive and abundant human future, there are many ways you can have a profound impact in the fight against the die-off mentality of the modern left — from opposing the climate apocalypse cult to disrupting anti-western “multiculturalists” to triggering the “equity fanatics” to active opposition of every other toxic tentacle of the deadly hydra.

Consider VHEMT:

The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement (VHEMT[A]) is an environmental movement that calls for all people to abstain from reproduction to cause the gradual voluntary extinction of humankind. _VHEMT

VHEMT represents what most of the various aspects of the radical left is aiming for — it is simply more honest about it than most activists, politicians, media celebrities, academics, financiers, and other largely behind-the-scenes operatives of the radical left.

Fighting VHEMT is easy — encourage young people to develop themselves from an early age, to achieve personal and financial independence, and to find reliable and loyal partners to raise large and Dangerous families.

In fact, that approach to changing the world will work on many of the battlegrounds on which human optimists find themselves facing the die-off mentality of the left.

Other, more covert approaches can be discussed in a more private setting. Above all, abstain from violence, outright lies, and destructive action and rhetoric — if at all possible. When faced by an angry mob of Antifa mobsters wielding chains, bats, and pepper spray, survival is paramount.

First, work on yourself. If you want to participate effectively in the revolution, you will need to understand yourself as deeply as possible. Be authentic, find as many ways to be true to yourself and those close to you, as possible. Make yourself very Dangerous.

Posted in Canada, careers, Competence, Jordan Peterson | Tagged | 1 Comment

First Educate the Child to Thrive in the World

Then if He Wants More Schooling, He Can Pay for It

An education into broad personal competence has nothing to do with a college education. College is “schooling,” and most modern degrees in the US are less valuable than a roll of toilet paper — in terms of added knowledge and competence. For most US college degrees, the only benefit is the credential itself — and credential inflation in college degrees assures an ever diminishing return as the years pass.

Does It Matter What College a Student Attends?

If a Dangerous Child decides to continue his schooling via college, will he benefit by going to an exclusive, elitist, expensive private college instead of going to a less expensive state college?

Where You Go to College Doesn’t Matter

The author in the piece above provides a sound argument for the case that less expensive schools provide better value — in terms of education. It is the student who educates himself, not the professors and TAs.

A bright, disciplined student who avails himself of library and internet resources in an efficient way, will learn far more at an inexpensive school than the average student in more expensive schools who too often count on professors to teach them — and rely on paper credentials to get them through life. This is particularly true in the age of credential bloat and administrative bloat — where the lion’s share of tuition increases go toward costly facilities and programs which have nothing to do with the student’s educational needs or future life prospects.

Dangerous Children Master at Least 3 Paths to Financial Independence by Age 18

An 18 year old with three distinct career competencies, a high school degree, and business skills via actual experience — plus half the credits required to graduate from most colleges before ever setting foot on a college campus — is in a position of strength when deciding his future career direction. This is one of the gifts we give the Dangerous Child, which is incalculably more valuable than any amount of phony self-esteem or ginned up self-righteousness of social justice warrior-children clogging the grounds of many of the US’ schooling providers.

Warning: Credential Bloat Ahead!

In the US, due to credential bloat and degree inflation, the value of a modern 4 year college degree is barely equivalent to the former value of a high school degree a few decades ago in terms of job requirements. At this rate, a masters degree will soon be the equivalent of today’s bachelor’s degree, and so on through time. Students do not become more competent for the inflated degrees, they are merely following the signals being sent to them by society so that they can qualify for employment in the future.

During the most dynamic years of economic growth in the US, educational requirements beyond the 8th grade were virtually unknown. Most 8th grade graduates of the time were far better educated than almost all of today’s high school graduates and college students.

Since that time, K-12 schools have become required centres of incarceration, indoctrination, and bad habit inculcation, with virtually no value added to the child. As a result, today’s colleges are forced to spend great time and effort to bring the reading and numeracy skills of freshmen and sophomores up to the minimal levels needed for mediocre college performance.

Credential bloat and degree inflation simply extends the charade to “higher levels” of farce, requiring ever more years of a young person’s life, and ever more $tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt.

It Is Never Too Late to Have a Dangerous Childhood

If you are getting the impression that US students are being suckered by a corrupt schooling establishment from K thru University, you are perceiving the reality correctly. The problem will never be solved until parents take their kids out of the system and provide them with alternative — and more substantive — pathways to knowledge and competency.

Your passivity in the face of this corrupt monstrosity will eventually convert into future difficulties for your children, and perhaps ultimate failure. The ongoing weakness, superficiality, and indebtedness of society at large is due to the poor preparation for life that has been given to US students for several decades now. Stop feeding the problem.

Posted in Dangerous Child, Education, University | Tagged | 1 Comment

Maximum Impact: Change the World Part III

Global Change via Dangerous Childraising

Emerging from under today’s youth cohorts of “angry little pixies” and building to future cohorts of Dangerous Children, will take time and effort. Contemporary youth and young adults are determined to “never grow up,” to never have children, to never take responsibility for their lives and futures, and to never willingly face real problems and accept the inevitable suffering of life in order to become competent members of a society of cooperating adults.

Dangerous Children Think and Act Independently

In contrast to the angry little pixies of today’s high school and college campuses, Dangerous Children do not require daily talking points or top-down directives from shadowy political activist groups. Dangerous Children think their own thoughts, make their own decisions, and act out their own plans to their own purposes and goals.

What Would a World of Dangerous Children Look Like?

Imagine a world of broadly competent people, everywhere you look. Dangerous Children master at least 3 means of financial independence by the age of 18 years, understand investment and finance, can start and operate multiple businesses, and have the equivalent knowledge of a college diploma before most of today’s perpetual pixie adolescents graduate from high school.

Dangerous Children do not require government handouts or entitlements for themselves or their families. What would the advanced nations of Europe and the Anglosphere do with the exponentially skyrocketing amounts of resources they currently spend on entitlements?

US Entitlements Projections
http://www.duffysoapbox.com/?p=3433

A society of Dangerous Children would require far fewer prisons, smaller systems of law enforcement, a fraction as many attorneys, and significantly fewer government bureaucrats.

A Dangerous Child society would also allow for the reduction in size of active duty military forces, since the US would naturally adopt a system closer to the Swiss or Israeli armed citizen force model.

Intermediate Preparation: Less than The Dangerous Child but Much Better than the Angry Pixies of Today

There are many approaches to educating and raising children which represent significant improvements over modern schools and methods — but are not at the same level of life preparation as The Dangerous Child Method.

  • Dr. Jordan Peterson‘s approach as set forth in his book “12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos,” and in his many online videos, provides one such intermediate approach to improving the preparation for life of children and youth.

    Dr. Peterson’s team is working on a high school version of his “self-authoring suite,” for example. When combined with the use of Peterson’s “Understand Myself” software, the coming self-authoring suite for youngsters should provide both the child and his coaches/caretakers with an invaluable head start in understanding his own strengths, weaknesses, motivations, and most promising goals.

  • The “Robinson Homeschool Curriculum” by Dr. Arthur Robinson, provides many excellent approaches to education at early and middle levels — not least of which are habits of self-learning that are instilled into children at an early age. In addition, youth who follow this curriculum are likely to require only 2 years of on-campus studies to achieve a 4-year bachelor’s degree.
  • The Forest School system has been around for over 100 years, but is just now hitting its stride. Currently focused on early childhood education, Forest Schools have the potential to be expanded through high school at least, if not further.
  • There are a number of colleges that provide educations tuition-free. Students work at various on-campus jobs for 10 to 15 hours a week in addition to a full load of classes.

    There are also boarding high schools that offer similar programs, including some that provide experience working on farms or ranches — although not nearly as many such schools exist as once did.

  • Tuition free online public schools. These schools often provide a wide range of class offerings not available at most on-site schools. If parents provide proper guidance — and teach children to teach themselves early in the process — such online schools allow children and youth to also develop many of the Dangerous Skills that are cultivated and mastered by Dangerous Children.

A society whose children are trained in such intermediate-style regimens of education and self orientation would certainly find itself better prepared to face the inevitable uncertainties of the world than current western societies find themselves.

Too many colleges and high schools are becoming glorified day care for perpetual adolescents, places of political indoctrination, and centres for the development of destructive habits.

In a society of Dangerous Children, there would be no such thing as “high schools” as we know them, and far fewer and far smaller bricks and mortar colleges and universities — since young people can learn everything they need in the humanities over the internet and via immersion travel learning. Dangerous Children 12 years of age would be far better educated than most of today’s high school graduates, and better educated than large numbers of college graduates — in terms of genuine real world applicable knowledge and insight.

Changing the World via Dangerous Childraising Takes Time

The process is time consuming because the value added to Dangerous Children is considerable. Raising independent thinkers and actors requires a far different approach than the factory-style public indoctrination systems and child-raising practises of neglect so prominent in western countries.

Over time, as citizens within the emerging Dangerous Society begin to evaluate the sharp reductions in public expenditures for entitlements, civil service salaries and pensions, justice system costs, and armed forces expenses, and overall rising levels of prosperity, it will dawn on most people that such an approach to changing society is very potent indeed, given the time and commitment.

Posted in Competence, Dangerous Child | Tagged | 2 Comments

Maximum Impact: Change the World Part II

Global Change via Disruptive Innovation

Since the year 1500, Europe has spawned scientific/technological/industrial revolutions that have generated endless streams of disruptive innovations. Those revolutions were made possible by European tools of global exploration and global conquest. And all of that was made possible by European (and Jewish diaspora) tools of finance, banking, and trade. This tsunami of European disruption was the product of thousands of individuals, and was ultimately built upon work done by ancient Greeks, Hindus, Egyptians, Babylonians, and persons living under the Muslim conquest. All of that is a daunting foundation on which to build noticeable disruptive change.

Most of the things held up as disruptive innovations by today’s popular media are nothing of the sort, but are rather bits of gaudy glitz to amuse the naive and credulous.

For one man to change the world today via disruptive innovation, he would need to reach deeply within the human psyche and/or the human experience, and alter something truly fundamental.

Making humans smarter, stronger, quicker, healthier, more resilient to injury or illness, longer-lived, less needful of sleep/rest/external nutrients, etc., would lead to disruptive consequences far beyond what a “smarter smart phone” or a better autonomous electric car might generate.

Tools that allow humans to live well and prosper despite efforts by oppressive ideologies and tyrannical governments to enslave, control, or destroy them, could also be seen as disruptive in a world where weapons of mass destruction and mass control are proliferating widely — including to multiple rogue states and ideological non-state actors.

Global Change via Information Control

“Information control” is another term for brainwashing, mass propaganda, or indoctrination. This approach to achieving global change was a mainstay of the USSR and other totalitarian states — and is the main tool of the ideologues who promote post-modernist nihilism.

But as long as contrary voices survive who can put the lie to mainstream propaganda, the indoctrination method for achieving global change will be vulnerable to contradiction by reality and alternative voices. The collapse of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact in the face of the superior prosperity and freedom of action found in the west, exposes the vulnerability of this approach.

Today’s postmodern nihilism faces the same eternal threat of contradiction, and is supremely vulnerable to being ultimately overthrown by other voices. Perhaps that is why postmodernists try so hard to crush and shout down voices which carry even the slightest hint of “heresy.”

Global Change via Narrative and “the Arts”

Great works of fiction often contain deep and mythic power to change the way one thinks. Superb writing will generate persistent memes and metaphors upon which readers may build further thought structures and life patterns over time — and sometimes thought structures that last for generations.

Bad fiction and overtly propagandist fiction tend to lack the punch and the staying power of great fiction, hence the general cultural impoverishment under the USSR and the Warsaw Pact (and other totalitarian regimes).

Great music can set the mood of an era, providing uplift to the reason and creativity of intelligent and creative populations — such as those found in Europe during the eras of baroque and classical music.

Not-so-great “music” such as hip hop can exert an equally strong downward push to the emotions and impulses of populations that score low in intelligence, executive functions, and impulse control.

Great plays and films contain mythic power similar to great written narratives, and speak to the deeper and more persistent truths within the experiences of viewers. Propagandist plays and films of totalitarian states do not tend to survive so well over time.

Global Change via Procreation

Genghis Khan and a handful of other men, left outsized genetic legacies via procreation. By changing the genetic complement of future human populations, one necessarily would change future human predispositions and ultimately change the outcomes of many actions — some large and some small.

This type of change is of the “hit or miss” variety, however, and not necessarily likely to bring about positive change. Nevertheless, the best approach in today’s world for spreading one’s seed far and wide to maximum impact, would be to open a worldwide chain of affordable sperm banks. Depending upon your physical characteristics, you may be able to generate worldwide demand for your product.

Most Types of Change Makes Things Worse

Complex evolved systems tend to be resistant to change. Forced change often leads to breakdowns rather than improved performance.

In biological evolution, most mutations are thought to be neutral, many are demonstrably harmful, and a very few mutations can be shown to be beneficial. More

It is almost impossible to improve the human genome at this stage in our understanding, but quite easy to make the genome more dysfunctional. Scientists tend to be very conservative about making permanent changes to human genomes, given the risks involved.

Similar rules of risk apply when making extreme and arbitrary changes to evolved cultural systems — although today’s postmodern social engineers scoff at the suggestion that they may be clearing the ground for near-future catastrophes and genocides.

Still, there is something about the blithe nihilism of our postmodern overlords which makes me somewhat uneasy. 😉

Global Change: Best to Live Outside It?

It is certainly best to avoid most popular manias and fads, as Twitter and Facebook are demonstrating. But sometimes manias and fads achieve global proportions, and expand to the point that outsiders are squeezed into smaller and smaller spaces of viability.

Picture yourself driving drowsily down a river road, when suddenly you wake up immersed in freezing cold water. Your car is filling up, and the pocket of breathable air is getting smaller and smaller. You must take advantage of this shrinking space to store away a minute’s worth of air so that you can make your escape from your car, to the surface of the water outside. If you are not alone in the car, the diminishing amount of residual air must provide for multiple escapes — perhaps under very difficult psychological conditions such as panic.

It is merely an analogy, but one which may convey the sense of urgency which can build under conditions of progressively dysfunctional prescriptions for change in a society.

For every person with a viable plan to make things better, there are dozens of people with certifiable plans to make things much worse. And as we all know, the first step toward making things better is to stop making them worse.

So what does one do when most of the world’s money, political power, information media, educational systems, and other institutions, are dedicated to plans that are guaranteed to make the world worse?

Good Plans Without Good People Will Not Work

One must keep his eyes open to discover the good ideas and workable plans which do exist in the world. In addition, one must often work as a broker to match the good plans with the good people who are capable of implementing them.

Positive change is likely to take place despite all the concerted forces operating to limit independent action, thought, and change outside of officially approved channels. Powerful enough disruptions can clear new space for development. If such spaces are exploited quickly enough, it will be difficult for the forces of nihilism to stop them — particularly if the processes of developing new spaces have a side effect of clearing yet more space for development.

It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood ©.

Posted in Disruptive Technologies, Dysgenics | Tagged

Maximum Impact: How One Man Could Change the World

Global Change via Religion/Philosophy

Looking at Moses, Jesus, the Buddha, Mohamed, and the Hindu legacies, one sees many long-term impacts of a global and quasi-global nature. Religion represents a deep and archetypal philosophy, which acts on multiple layers of the psyche.

The deeper the changes in the human psyche which can be made — particularly over a span of many generations — the greater the likely consequential changes in human history.

More superficial philosophers, who appeal merely to logic and reason, tend not to understand the deeper layers of human reality. As a result of their lack of comprehension, their work tends to have a more limited impact on human history. The exception to that rule is when particular strains of philosophy — superficial on their own — are built upon and refined over many generations. If the more refined strains of thought are bundled into more robust and comprehensive schools of thought — they may ultimately result in powerful philosophical systems that birth potent offspring such as the Jeffersonians or the Marxists.

Global Change via Education

Education is underwritten by philosophy — and often by religion. Education takes many forms, formal and informal. Formal education builds the intellectual and pseudo-intellectual classes, while informal education builds the working classes and the skilled classes. Overemphasis on formal education at the expense of informal education leads to a top-heavy society of faux elites, which almost always exerts a subversive force on guiding traditions.

Negative change via education is quite easy, and such change can be easily seen in modern practises of education at all levels — from K thru university. Negative change is easy, since it is always easier to make a system worse than to make it better.

Positive and lasting change via education is difficult, since one confronts the “chicken and egg” problem immediately and throughout the enterprise.

First, Stop Making Things Worse!

One starts making a horrible system better by stopping the processes that continually make it worse.

Ultimately, achieving the most positive change through education requires better parents, better teachers, better systems of teaching and learning, better systems of apprenticeship, better occupational and professional systems, and better societies as a whole for producing better students and receiving better graduates. But one must begin somewhere, and the best way is to cut out the tumour, drain the pus, neutralise the poison — stop making things worse!!!

That is the key to making today’s world better via education. One must starve the self-perpetuating system that keeps making everything worse. Jordan Peterson has a number of ideas — including exposing the parts of modern universities which are making everything worse, and helping students to route their educations around the ugly parts.

He has also given some thought to starting his own online university:

It is true that everything a person needs to be well-educated in a formal sense, can be found at a good public library. Similarly, one can also find what one needs on the internet, if he knows where to look.

Perhaps one might change the world merely by pointing out the parts of the mainstream that one should avoid, and highlighting the freely available resources that one can readily make use of. But one would need a very prominent soapbox to scratch the surface of that challenge.

Spending hundreds of $thousands going to university to study the humanities or social sciences is not only unnecessary, it is potentially crippling over one’s lifetime. $Trillions of fruitless debt is a way to make the world worse, not better.

Global Change via Politics/War

Who had the greatest long term impact on the world: Thomas Jefferson or Karl Marx? It is too early to say, but over the past 100 years, the republic spawned by Jefferson has become the world’s economic and military superpower, while most “nations” spawned by Marx have collapsed in seas of blood and/or ruin. China, after rejecting Mao’s brand of Marx, cannot be considered Marxist any longer. Vietnam is likewise moving away from its North Vietnamese communist ideological origins in order to fend off China’s aggressive advances.

Marx still has great appeal to power-mongers around the globe, but his track record in real world political experiments has been deplorable.

Relatively recent megalomaniacs who chose the path of war include Napoleon, Hitler, the Japanese militarists of the 1920s/1930s, and Mussolini. But aside from Napoleonic law, their impacts have been transient, and swept back by subsequent history.

Lasting Global Change Incorporates Multiple Paths

Lasting change must be deep and wide. Most forms of change are quickly and easily reversible. All forms of human change are ultimately reversible — other than total extinction.

Coincidentally, it almost seems self-evident that the goal of post-modernism — the political ideology that rules most western universities, media outlets, governments, foundations, and other prominent cultural institutions — is to foment the nihilist extinction of any possible abundant and expansive human future.

When seen in that way, we have some important choices to make.

Posted in Jordan Peterson, Philosophy, Politics, Ritual and Tradition | Tagged , | 1 Comment

China Loses Market Share… And Workers

China is no longer the manufacturer of first resort for a growing number of western importers. China is losing market share to upstarts, newcomers, and old grizzled rivals such as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.

China is losing market share not only to cheaper, younger countries like Vietnam. It is also ceding ground to greyer, costlier rivals like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. __ Economist

In fact, China is losing market share to many more countries than the few mentioned above:

At the beginning of this century, about 90 percent of apparel sold at Walmarts was made in China. By the end of 2012, that balance between China and the rest of the world essentially reversed. Then, my wife, surveying our local Walmart, found that every item of the store’s house brand, George, was made in Bangladesh. Simply Basic sleepwear came from Cambodia. Items with the Hanes label were stitched together in Guatemala and El Salvador. Wrangler jeans were imported from Nicaragua, and Fruit of the Loom clothes came in from Honduras. Danskin garments? They were made in the Middle East and Africa: Jordan, Egypt, and Kenya. __ Losing the Trade

China is known as the country that cheats, steals, pirates, and lies in all aspects of trade. As the cost of Chinese labour rises, increasingly bad karma is likely to descend on the middle kingdom.

And China is Losing Workers


Demographic change can alter a nation’s destiny like no other factor.

China’s working age population will fall 5% by 2030, a decline that is inevitable because the workers of 2030 have all been born already. It is likely to fall by a further 20% by mid-century as China “gets old before it gets rich.” By the end of the century China’s population might fall to as low as 600 million, and will certainly be less than 1 billion. Demographic decline will soon become a serious drag on economic growth. __ https://www.forbes.com/sites/salvatorebabones/2017/12/31/china-max-how-demography-economics-and-geography-will-combine-to-limit-chinas-growing-power/#442a4fa06433

Domestic Tranquility Depends Upon Rising Prosperity

For nearly 40 years up to 2008, a boom in foreign investment and technology transfer led to a massive boom in China’s exports and cash reserves. But for the past 10 years, at least half of China’s “prosperity” has relied upon a swelling tide of debt and credit stimulus. The borrow-build-demolish-borrow-rebuild-demolish cycle can only carry China to the point that the house of cards begins to collapse.

China’s massive foreign projects and grandiose military schemes depend upon continuing domination of global exports and trade. But a “perfect storm” of contrary winds could as easily capsize the entire armada of treasure ships.

China Does Not Need a Trade War at this Time

China has relied upon hugely advantageous trade terms with overseas partners for decades now. Thanks to massive foreign investment, foreign technology transfer — and larcenous trade advantages — China has built huge trade surpluses. But that was not enough, so China also cheated, stole, pirated, and otherwise poisoned many streams of trade — not to mention all the shoddy steel and concrete.

Western countries can build factories in many different low-wage nations, and can invest in Mexico or Bangladesh as easily as in China.

On the other side of the coin, the promise of Chinese markets has always been oversold. Ask any number of western nations that have built in-country infrastructure to supply Chinese markets how it feels when they are pushed out of China by locals with political connections and easy credit. Fool’s gold.

… labor costs are just one problem foreign firms face. Regulatory challenges are another. Survey respondents bemoaned unclear laws, difficulty in obtaining required licenses, and increased Chinese protectionism. __ Source

Global Markets are In Play

Take nothing for granted — especially conventional wisdom. Everything changes, and everything you are told is a lie.

Rigid and corrupt tyrannies spend massive amounts of money on propaganda and internal security. Unrest and insurrection are only a heartbeat away, when the fate of the entire nation rests upon just one man.

More:

Check out this review of the new documentary The China Hustle. Choose not to be a China sucker any longer.

Posted in China, Demographics, Economics | Tagged | 2 Comments

Violent Crime: Inequality vs. the “Hip Hop Effect”

Inequality and Violent Crime

Leaving aside the question of “violent genes” for now, we will look at some environmental contributors to violent crime which may be more subject to influence. One of the most prominent social factors that has been linked to violent crime for several decades is “inequality of wealth/income.”

A good analysis of the correlation between violent crime and wealth inequality is the 2002 research article titled “Crime & Inequality,” found on the World Bank website (PDF). The authors fall just short of claiming causation in the relationship between inequality of wealth/income and violent crime.

Below are two excerpts from the paper’s conclusions:


The authors admit that they were unable to determine why inequality led to more violent crime — a shortcoming of the paper which they labeled “the first shortcoming.” The second shortcoming, described in the following excerpt, is perhaps more telling.

A curious and under-examined finding of the paper is that it found no significant association between a society’s rates of violent crime… and its mean level of income, average education levels of adults, and the degree of urbanisation in the society.

Perhaps the greatest weakness of the paper is the failure to clearly distinguish between the effects of “inequality of income,” and “inequality of wealth” — a crucial distinction in forming a deep enough understanding of this association to be able to do anything about it. They also failed to examine the phenomenon of “pseudo-wealth,” where persons “max out” all forms of credit to provide a display of wealth, when in fact they are deeply indebted.

A Contradiction to the Rule?

Since the above paper was written, much of Latin America has experienced higher levels of violence along with reductions of poverty combined with sustained growth and less inequality. When researchers examined the data at more local levels within Mexico, for example, they found that cities with lower levels of inequality displayed lower rates of crime. In other words, the correlation between inequality and violence seemed to hold at the level of the municipality, even if it did not hold at the national level.

It is important to examine phenomena and their correlations at the appropriate level — a rule which researchers in the social and economic sciences often fail to comply with, or even to understand.

The “locality of crime” makes it mandatory to focus upon the specific levels of action and association. For example, comparing “high crime” and “low crime” areas of the same city can be instructive:

Even in the lower income areas of the above cities — which display higher crime rates — the income supports provided by welfare benefits place residents at relatively affluent levels when compared with the vast majority of humans on planet Earth. But that is not the appropriate comparison. Criminals tend to “act locally,” and that truism is particularly true of the vast majority of criminals who may be driven by personal impressions of “inequality.”

But “Inequality” is Only One Driver of Violent Crime

The scientific literature displays a robust association between violence and inequality — at least on specific levels of examination. But most homicides take place between “peers,” where “inequality” is minimised. Something besides mere perceived inequality of wealth/income is clearly involved in most homicides — although not all (homicides during a robbery etc.).

Since most homicides are between relative peers in the heat of the moment, emotional factors which have little or nothing to do with inequality of wealth/income seem to come into play. Such emotional factors tend to “ebb and flow” like the tides, and are themselves influenced by moment to moment events that occur within the immediate environment.

The Oppressive Social Tyranny of Hip Hop

There are many ways by which a person can become enslaved to something outside himself. Drug addicts are slaves, as are alcoholics and habitual tobacco smokers. In fact, there are many ways in which each of us is ensnared and enslaved within intricate webs of habit and dependency — most of which we remain entirely ignorant.

Within various communities — particularly of youth — a form of entertainment known as “hip hop” or “rap” has insinuated itself deeply. Because hip hop “sets a mood” which is fully capable of influencing impulsive actions, it should be examined clearly and deeply.

Below is one examination of hip hop by an African American author and student of culture, John McWhorter.

By reinforcing the stereotypes that long hindered blacks, and by teaching young blacks that a thuggish adversarial stance is the properly “authentic” response to a presumptively racist society, rap retards black success.

… The venom that suffuses rap had little place in black popular culture—indeed, in black attitudes—before the 1960s. The hip-hop ethos can trace its genealogy to the emergence in that decade of a black ideology that equated black strength and authentic black identity with a militantly adversarial stance toward American society. In the angry new mood, captured by Malcolm X’s upraised fist, many blacks (and many more white liberals) began to view black crime and violence as perfectly natural, even appropriate, responses to the supposed dehumanization and poverty inflicted by a racist society.__ John McWhorter in City Journal

In other words, for young blacks in their formative years, an immersion in hip hop shapes their identities in thuggish and violent form, in a quasi-normative manner. In other words, to someone raised within a mental environment flooded by hip hop, being black is to be a violent thug. The result of this “child-raising by rap” can be seen in the graph below:


There is no need to invoke any “genetics of black violence” to begin to understand why violent crime rates are so much higher in particular cities — and particular neighborhoods and parts of town — than in other cities or neighborhoods which display different population characteristics.

Inequality vs. Inequality ad Infinitum

The correlation between wealth/income inequality and rates of violent crime is considered to be strong and established in the social sciences. As a result, a majority of social institutions in western OECD nations have begun to bend themselves into extreme pretzel shapes to try to achieve an “equality of outcome” for income/wealth — without actually understanding the deep realities and multiplicities of “equality.” Equality of opportunity and equality of enforced outcomes — as well as equality before the law — must all be distinguished and placed in their proper levels of importance.

But those are just a few of the many potential equalities and inequalities that exist in the social and physical realities we inhabit.

The numbers of possible inequalities between individuals are essentially infinite. The ultimate basis of interpersonal inequality rests within the complex networks of genes and gene expression. Such networks are subject to infinite variability.

But genes and networks of gene expression must operate within the environments of the physical world, which themselves display almost infinite variability. Throw in the infinite variability of the mental and emotional worlds that we all inhabit, and one discovers that achieving “equality” between individuals in any meaningful sense of the word, is impossible.

And so we see our societies wrapped around perverse and impossible goals of dubious relevance, dissipating precious resources on futile and vacuous quests, while an expansive and abundant human future waits within our reach — and just outside our grasp.

It is, after all, the expansive and abundant human future — the next level — which offers the greatest hope for providing the only kind of equality that really matters. An equal opportunity for the potential fulfillment of our true — but almost entirely unknown — inner selves.

But why wait? We could begin work on developing our inner selves by rejecting ideology and pursuing the depths of understanding on multiple levels. Society at large will fight you at every turn, but the more persons who become engaged in this vital pursuit, the less power “society” will have over them.

Posted in Crime | Tagged | 3 Comments

Why is Latin America So Violent?

Top 10 National Homicide Rates per Million Persons

It is important to look at national homicides both as a rate — see above — and in total — see below. By either measure, Latin American nations have significant representation in top 10 murder-by-nation statistics. Looking at rates per million or rates per hundred thousand allows a fair comparison of nations with small populations against nations with large populations.

Top 10 Homicide Raw Count by Nation

Global Homicide Rate Map

Portraying national homicide rates on a global map allows for a more visual comparison, which is sometimes easier to understand on a visceral level.

Global Murder Rate

Violent Crime Rates by City

Finally, looking at violent crime in general — on the city level — allows one to pinpoint foci of violence, and places that might best be avoided.

Why is Latin America so Violent?

Genetics of Violence Plus Environmental Factors

Genetics of violence

According to a meta-analysis on data from 24 genetically informative studies, up to 50% of the total variance in aggressive behavior is explained by genetic influences.

… Both our genotype and the environmental factors to which we are exposed to throughout life contribute to shaping our brain functions. Changes in the expression of specific genes in the brain -such as MAOA, DAT1 and DRS2- can affect neurotransmitter levels, which, in turn, influences complex functions such as intelligence, mood and memory. __ The Genetics of Violent Behavior

More

When the Spanish and Portuguese moved into Latin America, they came to plunder and enslave. The conquistadors represented some of the most rapacious and unscrupulous qualities within the Spanish culture of the time. Their genes, which helped support those character traits, were mixed with the genes of indigenous peoples — themselves not always the most placid of tribal people. In fact, the most dangerous period of the Americas was the time before the Europeans arrived.
More

Mixing the violent genes of the conquistadors and other early Spanish plunderers with the violent genes of indigenous American peoples would certainly have provided descendants with an abundance of violent genes from diverse sources.

Environmental Factors of Violence

In Latin America, violent crime is spurred by a multitude of environmental factors — including poverty, a macho culture of violence, high rates of illegitimacy, etc. But we should not overlook the drug trade, which channels large flows of cash to violent drug cartels and gangs from Colombia into Central America and the Caribbean, to Mexico and the US.

Consider the combined effects of violent genes with the many environmental factors predisposing to violence. Seen in that broader sense, perhaps it is not so difficult to understand why Latin America is so violent.

Sub Saharan Africa is not Chopped Liver

In the global violence sweepstakes, sub Saharan Africa has nothing to be ashamed of. In fact, if black African nations kept better crime statistics, it is likely that they would hold their own with Latin American nations. And we should not overlook the impact of the violent African genes that made their way to Latin America on slave ships of Spain and Portugal. Those genes are now firmly ensconced within populations of Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, and many nations of Central America and the Caribbean — nations that coincidentally have high rates of violent crime.

A quick glance at visual and tabular comparisons of national violent crime rates reveals the parallels between Latin America and black Africa in that regard.

What Should Be Done About High Crime Nations?

At the very least, immigration from such countries should be severely limited, by more advanced nations. All civilised methods for making life within the nations of origin more humane should be pursued — as long as such methods do not lead to population surges. In the end, every population must find its own level, which it is capable of sustaining on its own.

More extreme measures such as building walls around the most violent cities, or screening for violent genes and then attempting to limit procreation among such individuals, are unacceptable for many reasons.

Hope for the Best… Prepare for the Worst

Dangerous Children and Dangerous Communities will provide robust resilience and anti-fragility inside more advanced nations — and inside protected enclaves within emerging and less advanced nations. Ultimately, as the chaos unleashed by post-modern multicultural immigration policies unfolds, existing nations will collapse and divide, with significant areas of the world undergoing rapid and long-term change of control — or lacking significant control or rule of law altogether.

Eventually off-planet settlements and colonies are likely to spread out, and even more niches of the planet Earth will be settled by free people. Change is inevitable, but not doom.

Remember, it is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .

Posted in Crime, Demographics, Doom, Genetics and Gene Expression | Tagged | 2 Comments

Brazil Has Strong Gun Control — And Sky High Murder Rates

For Criminals, Guns Come Easy

Thanks to strict gun control laws, the ability of the average Brazilian to defend himself from more bloody-minded countrymen is limited. By absolute numbers of homicides, Brazil leads all other nations. 60,000 Brazilians were sent to early graves by murderous compatriots last year.

More Murders in Brazil Than All the Blue Countries Combined
http://metrocosm.com/homicides-brazil-vs-world/

“Everyday, everywhere you look, the criminal is armed with a high-powered weapon as the citizen tries to hide,” [lawmaker] Rogerio Peninha Mendonca … said in an interview. “What we want is for the citizen to be more capable of defending himself.”

… Forty-two percent of Brazilians believe gun ownership is a citizen’s right, according to a November survey by pollster Datafolha. That’s up from 30 percent four years earlier. And of the lower house lawmakers who have expressed opinions publicly, slightly more than half support the proposed legislation, according to a scoreboard maintained by Peninha’s staff.

Fellow lawmaker Bolsonaro, a former Army captain, has been preaching the gospel of gun rights as part of his law-and-order pitch to voters. In polls he trails only former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who will likely be barred from running. __ Bloomberg

Gun Control Crusaders Do Not Care if You Live or Die

Criminals can always get access to weapons — legal or not. Law abiding citizens are far more constrained in their actions, often leaving them at the mercy of armed criminals in gun control jurisdictions.

The gun control movement is just another way to transfer power over citizens’ lives from the people to the government — which has a legal monopoly over the use of force in most nations. In other words, their “compassion” is a mask for their control-lust and perverse need to dominate their fellow citizens.

7 Brutal Rules for Keeping Your Balance

Following the 7 Brutal Rules below is a link to the parent article which helps to explain the reasons for each.

  1. The average person cares more about what he eats for lunch than whether you live or die
  2. Life is not and will never be fair
  3. Most people are shallow
  4. The more comfortable you get, the worse your life is going to be
  5. The world will judge you based on what it can get out of you
  6. Nothing in life is permanent
  7. When you die, only a few people will continue to think of you after you’re gone
  8. ___ Source

John Hawkins, the author of the list and linked article above, is actually being very charitable to his fellow man. In the postmodern multicultural world of rabid political correctness and vicious left-wing racism and sexism, things are far worse than commonly understood — under the surface.

Jordan Peterson’s 12 Rules for Life Provide a Deeper Set of Guidelines and Perspectives

Jordan Peterson’s rules require hours of explanation, as they are highly metaphorical.

Rule 1 Stand up straight with your shoulders back

Rule 2 Treat yourself like you would someone you are responsible for helping

Rule 3 Make friends with people who want the best for you

Rule 4 Compare yourself with who you were yesterday, not with who someone else is today

Rule 5 Do not let your children do anything that makes you dislike them

Rule 6 Set your house in perfect order before you criticise the world

Rule 7 Pursue what is meaningful (not what is expedient)

Rule 8 Tell the truth – or, at least, don’t lie

Rule 9 Assume that the person you are listening to might know something you don’t

Rule 10 Be precise in your speech

Rule 11 Do not bother children when they are skate-boarding

Rule 12 Pet a cat when you encounter one on the street

__ As listed here

But once you have wrapped your head around the 12 rules above, you will recognise common ground between the two distinct sets of rules and facts above, and may better understand why ordinary citizens need to make themselves far more independent, and far more Dangerous, than the ruling leftist overlords of the post-modern age would like.

It is never too late for a Dangerous Childhood

Note: Brazil will never be Switzerland or pre-immigration Sweden. Different populations vary in genetically & environmentally influenced personality and temperament. Violence comes more naturally for some populations than for others. That is not the question. The problem is: how to maximise safety for those citizens who are law-abiding and peace-loving when they are surrounded by significant numbers of people who are prone to violence, theft, intimidation, and extortion? The solution seems to be to give them a reliable way to defend themselves against the violent and murderous bullies.

Posted in Competence, Crime, Philosophy, Weapons | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Russian Exports We Could Do Without

Rockets and Poisons

Ten days ago, the Kremlin leader sought to frighten the West with his new “super weapons” and his preparedness for nuclear war, Eidman says. Now, he “is frightening it with a mass poisoning in the center of Britain. All these things are links in one chain,” are of his effort to “hit at sanctions with rockets and poisons.” __ Igor Eidman via WOE2

We Were Warned 20 Years Ago

Chemical and biological weapons are more economical weapons of mass destruction than advanced nuclear weapons. And despite clear violations of multiple international treaties, Russia has apparently forged ahead in developing advanced lethal forms of chemical and biological warfare agents, along with advanced weapons delivery systems.

Regarding genetically engineered bio-weapons:

A defector from the former Soviet biological weapons program said in an interview today [FEB. 25, 1998] that Moscow’s cold war plans for World War III included preparing ”hundreds of tons” of anthrax bacteria and scores of tons of smallpox and plague viruses. __ NYT 25 Feb 1998

The development of more advanced chemical weapons has been stepped up by the Russian government in the past 10 years, along with the long-running gene-engineering bioweapons programs.

Since the start of Putin’s second term, a construction boom has been underway at more than two dozen institutes that were once part of the Soviet Union’s biological and chemical weapons establishment, according to Russian documents and photos compiled by independent researchers. That expansion, which includes multiple new or refurbished testing facilities, is particularly apparent at secret Defense Ministry laboratories that have long drawn the suspicions of U.S. officials over possible arms-treaty violations. __ WaPo 18March2018

Poisoning of Russian Double Agent in London Shines a Light

Russian nerve toxin “Novichok” was used against a former Russian spy in London recently. Repercussions from the incident are exploding across the WMD world, bringing unwanted attention once again to Russia’s rogue chemical and biological warfare programmes.

The UK Foreign Minister is claiming that Russia stockpiled large quantities of the Novichok agent, likely in preparation for attacks of an unknown nature. Since the Russians are denying any knowledge of Novichok, it looks as if the Kremlin has resurrected their old cold war playbook of “offend and deny.” The big lie, in other words.

One of the group of chemicals known as Novichoks – A-230 – is reportedly five to eight times more toxic than VX nerve agent.

“This is a more dangerous and sophisticated agent than sarin or VX and is harder to identify,” says Professor Gary Stephens, a pharmacology expert at the University of Reading. __ http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43377698

Rather than being an entirely new class of nerve agents, the Russian Novichok agent appears to be a more potent form of the parasympathetic agonist type of established nerve agents.

The Poor Man’s Weapons of Mass Destruction

Russia’s renewed devotion to the advancement of biological and chemical weaponry suggests that the Kremlin knows that it cannot economically maintain its nuclear threat to the previous levels as were maintained under the USSR. Saber rattlers in the new Russia must rely on a combination of vapourware, propaganda, an ageing nuclear arsenal, and budget-oriented chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction.

Oh, and one more thing. Cats’ paw proxy nuclear powers such as North Korea, Iran, and others to be announced, provide both Russia and China a level of “plausible deniability” in the case of a convenient crisis that suits their purposes. “Plausible” is in quotes, given the all too visible support provided by Russia and China to these rogue nuclear powers.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. The centres of release for chemical and biological massive scale weapons delivery systems would likely be large cities and strategic sites. A rogue nuclear attack by NoKo or Iran would just as likely be of an EMP variety, with most death and damage occurring within and around large cities.

Make your plans and provisions accordingly.

More:

Putin never learns

Never

And so the lost empire recedes ever farther into the dust of history

Twenty years after the Soviet Union collapsed, the Russian population implosion was getting worse. Currently Russia has the 11th largest economy in the world but without more investments (local or foreign) and fewer sanctions the economy will shrink (like the workforce, because couples are not having enough children).

It is not surprising that ethnic Russian birthrates are dropping, since the female cohort of child-bearing years has dropped off a cliff.

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