Russia is unable to compensate for its looming wartime manpower losses during a pre-existing demographic collapse. Russia’s economy is based upon natural resource extraction, refinement, and industrial production. All of these foundational industries require manpower to operate. Without men, Russia’s industrial base will simply fold.
Russia is losing up to 1,000 men per day in Ukraine. Already, over 300,000 Russian men have been lost, and at an ongoing rate of 1,000 per day now, the total will grow quickly. The manpower deficit is already being felt in Russia, but the pain will grow in exponential fashion.
Keeping Russian industry running without men or fuel will keep the Kremlin body jugglers busy:
In addition to the drone strikes overnight, two armed militia units based in Ukraine and backed by Kyiv — the Russian Volunteer Corps and Free Russia Legion — made incursions from Ukraine into the Belgorod and Kursk regions of Russia.
The group of anti-Kremlin fighters has previously broken across the border into Russia leading to skirmishes with the Russian army. Russian pro-Kremlin military bloggers on Tuesday said several groups of armed men on pick-up trucks stormed the border, with some reporting gun battles.
The Free Russia Legion posted a video claiming to show its tanks crossing the border at night. “We are coming to rescue you . . . from dictatorship,” a group leader said in a video. In another video, the group showed what it said was a Russian armoured personnel carrier being destroyed by its fighters.
A Divided Nation
Liberating Russia from thieving tyrants
North Korean arms production cannot supply Russian demands. Supply chains are breaking.
North Korea has not been able to obtain the metals and explosives needed to build lots more 152mm shells or unguided rockets fired in salvos from launchers on trucks that hold 20 or 40 rockets that can be launched at once. The problem is that North Korea is unable to obtain the metal, explosives and gunpowder needed to build enough 152mm shells and unguided rockets to fill Russian orders. North Korea had already shipped millions of old 152mm shells and thousands of old unguided rockets from its stockpiles. It took North Korea decades to accumulate these stockpiles. When Russia offered to buy these weapons and pay with cash and food, the North Koreans could not resist. Now they are encountering problems producing more shells and rockets for Russia, and replacements for their own stocks, but find they don’t have raw materials to build more than 30 percent of the Russian demand.
Strategy
Russia produces a huge amount of crude oil. But Russia’s refining capacity for specialized products is limited. Even under peacetime conditions, Russia’s gasoline refineries had an insignificant output on the world markets. Russian crude is exported and turned into gasoline overseas. During war it is much worse for Russian gasoline output.
Russia’s oil refineries cannot keep up with demand for fuel — both wartime demand and domestic demand. That makes the gasoline export ban into a huge joke, since due to Russia’s refinery deficit Russia must now import a growing amount of refined fuel — gasoline, kerosene, diesel, etc.
Every refinery that Ukrainian missiles and drones put out of operation, makes Russia’s fuel pinch all the worse. The longer this war goes on, the more loss of blood and destruction of economic potential will occur in Russia.
ISW has previously assessed that Russia’s labor shortage, which is partially a result of its war in Ukraine and partially a symptom of Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis, will likely continue to complicate Kremlin efforts to balance increasing Russian economic capacity and force generation while catering to select members of the Russian ultranationalist community by disincentivizing migrant workers from working in Russia.[16] The Bank of Finland also reportedly found that Russia’s increased DIB production has focused on low-tech products, such as fabricated steel, and that Russia is still reliant on foreign suppliers for higher-tech items such as semiconductors.[17] WSJstated that while Russia has successfully evaded sanctions and imported some products, Russia is struggling to source some necessary specialized items, such as tank optics, from third countries.
___ Institute for the Study of War: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Russia’s catastrophic loss of surveillance/air control aircraft and repair facilities on the ground:
One of the Beriev A-50 airborne warning and control (AWACS) was downed over the Sea of Azov in mid-January, while a second was shot down over Russian territory in late February. The Kremlin has scrambled to replace the aircraft, reportedly attempting to refurbish least one A-50 from the several dozen that are no longer deemed flyable.
Ukraine responded by conducting a drone strike on the aviation facility in the city of Taganrog tasked with repairing A-50s. According to a report from Newsweek , the plant was “heavily damaged,” and an A-50 aircraft close to the facility was either destroyed or sustained significant damage.
Desperate Times for Russia
Putin thought to conquer all of Ukraine in only 3 days, at little or no cost. But the cost of genocidal conquest to the evil empire is piling up fast. Russia’s friends are beginning to look for the exit doors.
Russians cannot recruit foreign men fast enough, from India, Nepal, Cuba, Nigeria, Syria, Libya, etc. They die as quickly as they are recruited. Russian recruiters promise them that they will not be sent to the war zone, but like true Russian officials they lie.
Russian men, Russian youth, Russian boys. Answering Putin’s clarion call to war.
Putting Russia’s present problems into historical perspective
Under Putin Russia risks becoming a footnote to modern history. Perhaps that is why Putin would burn down all of Russia — and the world — for just another day in power and 15 more minutes of fame. Most members of the criminal enterprise known as the Russian Federation owe their positions to Putin, so if Putin falls, so do they.
More: Assessments of massive Russian setbacks here and here
What happens when all the serfs learn what their lords have been doing with their sons and husbands? Russia has had violent transitions of power multiple times in recent history. Putin’s foolhardy February 2022 decision in Ukraine has set the stage for disruptive change across the entire unstable empire. Russian troops are now concentrated in Ukraine, with backs turned toward the real threat.
China has moved into vital Russian industries inside Russian borders. The invisible invasion has begun.
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