Xi in Jeopardy from the Return of the Tuanpei?

Chairman Xi of Communist Party-led China sent his daughter back to the US, perhaps for safekeeping. She does not feel comfortable in China after several years in the US, and may not feel safe inside the Middle Kingdom.

… Xi Mingzhi was unsatisfied with her life in China after living for several years as a student in the United States. Out of love for his daughter, Xi Jinping was reportedly persuaded to let her return to school in Massachusetts where she had enjoyed her undergraduate years. … [perhaps] Xi Jinping considers the United States to be a safer place for his child than Beijing, in the midst of political intrigue and possible danger.

___ https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3796172

Is life becoming more complicated now for the children of the “princelings?” As the Chinese economy slides down into turbulent waters, are we beginning to see the rise and return of the Tuanpei?

Return of the Tuanpei

Two broad camps in the leadership vigorously vie for influence and control in post-Deng China: the “elitist coalition”, with its core faction of princelings (leaders who come from veteran revolutionary families), and the “populist coalition”, which primarily consists of so-called tuanpai (leaders who advanced their careers through the Chinese Communist Youth League). __ https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2085000/xi-all-powerful-what-trump-needs-know-about-chinese-politics

The story of China is a story of violent swings between extremes, for thousands of years. Even under the powerful grip of the CPC, China’s basic nature is to divide and clash with itself.

US President Trump has been slashing visas for Chinese students and non-STEM professors. But he may make an exception for the daughter of Xi, as a personal gesture. Trump may feel that it is better to face Xi across the negotiating table, than an unknown group of people who bring a different agenda.

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New Genes Pop Up Like Magic

Since 2012 scientists have been learning how new genes are created in all kinds of organisms. The image below provides a look at simple gene expression, followed by a glimpse into the creation of a new gene out of “non-genic DNA.”

It is a startling idea, and strangely liberating. The implications of this scientific revelation are likely to unfold in a disruptive manner, for decades to come at least.

In the past five years, researchers have found numerous signs of these newly minted ‘de novo’ genes in every lineage they have surveyed. These include model organisms such as fruit flies and mice, important crop plants and humans; some of the genes are expressed in brain and testicular tissue, others in various cancers.

… Conventional wisdom was that new genes tended to arise when existing ones are accidentally duplicated, blended with others or broken up, but some researchers now think that de novo genes could be quite common: some studies suggest at least one-tenth of genes could be made in this way; others estimate that more genes could emerge de novo than from gene duplication. Their existence blurs the boundaries of what constitutes a gene… __ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03061-x

Evolution was once thought to be a slow and gradual process of mutation and selection. Then evidence of sudden bursts of evolutionary change was discovered, and more mechanisms of evolutionary change were found — such as gene duplication and recombination. Still, many weaknesses in specific areas of evolutionary theory by natural selection were pounced upon by sceptics.

Now with the discovery of the seemingly spontaneous emergence of “genes out of non-genes,” evolutionary theory is due for yet another renovation. This rocky road of observation – experimentation – theoretical emergence is how science is done. Scientists should be ever sceptical of “scientific” theories, especially those that are most cherished.

… only a few per cent of the human genome, for example, actually encodes genes. Alongside are substantial stretches of DNA — often labelled ‘junk DNA’ — that seem to lack any function. Some of these stretches share features with protein-coding genes without actually being genes themselves: for instance, they are littered with three-letter codons that could, in theory, tell the cell to translate the code into a protein.

It wasn’t until the twenty-first century that scientists began to see hints that non-coding sections of DNA could lead to new functional codes for proteins. As genetic sequencing advanced to the point that researchers could compare entire genomes of close relatives, they began to find evidence that genes could disappear rather quickly during evolution. That made them wonder whether genes could just as quickly spring into being. __ Nature

Genes must then appear and disappear with astounding regularity, and until recently we did not have a clue that this was happening. We knew that existing genes were turned on and off regularly, but not that new genes were being created from non-coding DNA and old genes were disappearing back into non-coding DNA.

One thing separating a “gene” from a “non-gene” in the DNA world, is the codons that tell the cell machinery to begin and end the translation process of DNA to a peptide, or chain of amino acids. Whether these new peptide sequences serve a useful purpose is up to the circumstances currently operating inside and outside of the organism itself. The new gene will be either “selected for” or “selected against” by all the working environments that interact with the gene product.

Bacterial Resistance Easier to Understand

Knowledge of de novo genes suddenly opens a window into possible mechanisms by which bacteria quickly develop resistance to antibiotics. They do not have to “trade plasmids” with other bacteria. They can create their own brand-new resistance genes themselves!

A gene is commonly defined as a DNA or RNA sequence that codes for a functional molecule. The yeast genome, however, has hundreds of thousands of sequences, known as open reading frames (ORFs), that could theoretically be translated into proteins, but that geneticists assumed were either too short or looked too different from those in closely related organisms to have a probable function.

… Michael Knopp and his colleagues at Uppsala University, Sweden, showed that inserting and expressing randomly generated ORFs into Escherichia coli could enhance the bacterium’s resistance to antibiotics, with one sequence producing a peptide that increased resistance 48-fold7. Using a similar approach, Diethard Tautz and his team at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology in Plön, Germany, showed that half of the sequences slowed the bacterium’s growth, and one-quarter seemed to speed it up8 — although that result is debated. Such studies suggest that peptides from random sequences can be surprisingly functional. __ Nature

And so we come back to the idea that challenges in the environment lead to evolutionary changes in organisms. The ability to create new genes and new proteins that can be tested by these environmental challenges would seem to provide a powerful new tool of evolutionary change. Especially in organisms with quick generation times such as bacteria.

For species such as humans who reproduce much more slowly, evolution via de novo genes seems to occur over much longer periods of time. But when smaller breeding populations are isolated from each other, rapid gene creation can occur and be selected for or against over shorter time periods — especially when the population is under challenge from the environment.

The story is more complicated than the discussion above suggests. Genes are also distinguished from non-genes by “regulatory regions” in the DNA which tell the cell machinery when to transcribe the gene to messenger RNA (mRNA), and then forward the mRNA to ribosomes for translation to peptides. The image above provides a simplified look at gene regulation. The image below is more realistic, but still is somewhat simplified.

So it obviously takes longer to cook up a set of “magical new genes” than to warm up a cold pizza in the microwave. Functioning genes in multi-cellular organisms — such as mammals — are a bit complicated when looked at with all of their regulatory control systems. Yet the existence of the de novo gene creation phenomenon seems to open an evolutionary doorway to us that we did not formerly know existed.

Non Coding DNA and RNA

Most of our DNA is “noncoding,” which means that most DNA either does nothing or it does other things besides functioning as genes. Much of it acts to regulate the expression of genes.

Similarly, our cells contain a large amount of non-coding RNA, much of it performing important tasks involving gene expression and important regulation of coding RNA. These are very active areas of research in molecular biology and genetics.

Most of What We Know, Just Ain’t So

If a scientist were able to travel back in time in the attempt to teach 19th century biologists what is now known by 21st century biologists, he would be taking a huge risk of being ridiculed and possibly attacked as heretics by any number of faiths that were prominent in that century, including “19th century science.”

The same thing will probably be true for 23rd century scientists who may risk their lives and limbs traveling back in time to our day. We are simply too early in this drama to know where it will end. We can be sure that we barely understand some of the surface layers.j

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .

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Is Genetic Divergence a Controversial Topic?

Genetic Divergence

Genetic divergence is an accepted concept in evolutionary science.

Genetic divergence is the process in which two or more populations of an ancestral species accumulate independent genetic changes (mutations) through time, often after the populations have become reproductively isolated for some period of time… The genetic differences among divergent populations can involve silent mutations (that have no effect on the phenotype) or give rise to significant morphological and/or physiological changes. Genetic divergence will always accompany reproductive isolation, either due to novel adaptations via selection and/or due to genetic drift, and is the principal mechanism underlying speciation.[1] __ Wikipedia

Genetic divergence takes place between isolated breeding populations via:

  • mutation,
  • selection,
  • genetic drift,
  • gene duplication,
  • and other processes

This is well accepted among evolutionary scientists.

Evolution and Dog Breeds

We recently discussed the profound differences in behaviours between the different dog breeds, and how such differences were both heritable and statistically linked to specific gene alleles. Genetic divergence in dog breeds is a combination of artificial selection by dog breeders, and the other natural mechanisms of divergence mentioned above.

This concept is generally accepted among evolutionary scientists.

Evolution and Human Ethnicity

Several human populations evolved in mostly isolated breeding populations for thousands of years on the various continents. The marked differences in physical appearance between these divergent ethnic groups cannot be denied. But did these physically divergent groups also evolve differences in brain gene alleles that can lead them to behave differently, on a statistical group level?

We recently looked at East Asian underachievement in the Nobel Prize arena, and saw that this “East Asian Lag” may be partially related to different gene alleles in those populations:

… the variance in scientific achievement is explained by differences in inquisitiveness (DRD4 7-repeat), psychological stability (5HTTLPR long form), and individualism (mu-opioid receptor gene; OPRM1 G allele). Northeast Asians tend to be lower in these psychological traits, which we argue are necessary for exceptional scientific accomplishments. __ https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2466/04.17.CP.4.15

We have also seen evidence that violent behaviours are linked to specific gene alleles that are more common in some ethnic groups than in others.

Do Different Ethnic Groups Behave Differently?

Clearly, based on the evidence, different ethnic groups exhibit different behaviours on a statistical level. Differences emerge in levels of affluence, levels of educational achievement, levels of criminality, levels of technological expertise in different populations, levels of trust and generosity, and so on. The big question is whether some of these different behaviours are genetically based in part.

There is a widespread belief that there has not been enough time for human populations on the different continents to diverge genetically during the long years of being mostly isolated from each other. But is that belief well supported?

Russian scientists showed in the 1990s that a strong selection pressure (picking out and breeding only the tamest fox pups in each generation) created what was — in behavior as well as body — essentially a new species in just 30 generations. That would correspond to about 750 years for humans. Humans may never have experienced such a strong selection pressure for such a long period, but they surely experienced many weaker selection pressures that lasted far longer, and for which some heritable personality traits were more adaptive than others. It stands to reason that local populations (not continent-wide “races”) adapted to local circumstances by a process known as “co-evolution” in which genes and cultural elements change over time and mutually influence each other. The best documented example of this process is the co-evolution of genetic mutations that maintain the ability to fully digest lactose in adulthood with the cultural innovation of keeping cattle and drinking their milk. This process has happened several times in the last 10,000 years, not to whole “races” but to tribes or larger groups that domesticated cattle.

Recent “sweeps” of the genome across human populations show that hundreds of genes have been changing during the last 5-10 millennia in response to local selection pressures. __ Edge.org

Cochran and Harpending’s book The 10,000 Year Explosion illustrates how rapidly a human breeding population can diverge from the mainstream surrounding it, even while maintaining close physical proximity to outside groups.

The online book “The Nature of Race” by John Fuerst provides much evidence supporting the concept of evolved biological races — including races of men. Much more material on the “biological reality of race” can be found at the human biological diversity website.

In fashionable academia and among the elite pseudo-intellectual classes, the concept of genetically distinguishable human races which may differ statistically in behaviours and specific aptitudes is highly controversial. Nevertheless, evolutionary science strongly supports the concept of both genetic divergence and associated phenotypic divergence.

The idea that one group may win more Nobel Prizes because of statistically different levels of certain genetic alleles, is very controversial — and NOT! politically correct. But the evidence is highly suggestive of that possibility. The same principle applies to a large number of well known statistical ethnic and gender differences in aptitude and achievement across the range of human accomplishment, throughout history to the modern day.

Why bring up the idea of male – female differences when discussing genetic divergence? Because the genetic distance between males and females is the largest genetic gulf of all. The “Y” chromosome and the resulting ultra-high levels of testosterone in males compared to females, make such a difference in how the brain and body function that male – female divergence takes the prize.

… Many sex differences in adult brain structure and behaviors are the result of in utero organizational effects of gonadal steroid hormones, in particular androgens and their aromatized derivatives, estrogens, both of which are present in substantially higher concentrations in male fetuses due to testicular steroidogenesis. Brain differences between the sexes can also arise from diverse factors, including the expression of genes carried on the sex chromosomes…

The self-deception of political correctness is common among all groups of people. But certain modern organisations and institutions are particularly guilty of aggressively promoting political censorship of scholarly and scientific ideas. It is past time to point the public finger at these organisations and institutions.

It is not hard to find them. They are hiding in plain sight in the halls of higher education, in mass media, in government bureaucracies, in tax-free foundations that fund research, and among publishers and editors of scientific journals. In other words, if the “swamp of ideological censorship” in society is ever to be drained, the process will have to be extensive and prolonged.

Fortunately, we do have the internet which allows a constant proliferation of multiple streams of ideas. And we will always have private collections of books and papers, both electronic and physical. These ideas can all be tested against the validated and substantiated ideas of the past, to allow both contrarians and more mainstream-connected thinkers to keep a better set of books for corrective purposes. At least until society swings back to a different set of prejudices that allow more recent fads to be discarded and replaced by preserved and discovered knowledge that stand up better to challenges.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late for a Dangerous Childhood © .

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Why China Lags

IQ Distributions for Four Populations
Source: Wiki

China is amply endowed with a high intelligence population, hard working and ambitious. Historically, China has supplied the world with a number of significant inventions. So why is the modern measure of China so small and lagging?

China Was Once Number One

Two thousand years ago, China was far ahead of the rest of the world in science and technology. They had gunpowder, printing, paper, and the compass. __ Edward de Bono in Think! Before It’s Too Late

Since the rise of Genghis Khan and the fall of the Song dynasty, China has had trouble keeping up.

Why the Lag?

Part of the problem for China is the rigid compartmentalisation, and almost universal corruption of the communist party led system. But is it also possible that something in the evolved Han Chinese personality tends to hamper the modern Chinese from producing high numbers of ultra disruptive innovators?

Could it be personality? Kenya Kura, Jan te Nijenhuis, and Edward Dutton published a study in 2015 claiming that there is something in the personality of East Asians that limits their ability to win top scientific prizes.

Most scientific discoveries have originated from Europe, and Europeans have won 20 times more Nobel Prizes than have Northeast Asians. We argue that this is explained not by IQ, but by interracial personality differences, underpinned by differences in gene distribution. In particular, the variance in scientific achievement is explained by differences in inquisitiveness (DRD4 7-repeat), psychological stability (5HTTLPR long form), and individualism (mu-opioid receptor gene; OPRM1 G allele). Northeast Asians tend to be lower in these psychological traits, which we argue are necessary for exceptional scientific accomplishments. Since these traits comprise a positive matrix, we constructed a q index (measuring curiosity) from these gene frequencies among world populations. It is found that both IQ scores and q index contribute significantly to the number of per capita Nobel Prizes. __ Why Do Northeast Asians Win so Few Nobel Prizes

Sociologist Satoshi Kanazawa published an article looking at the same question back in 2006. Kanazawa points the finger at conformist cultures of Northeast Asia.

East Asians have not been able to make creative use of their intelligence. While they are very good at absorbing existing knowledge via rote memory (hence their high standardized test scores in math and science) or adapt or modify existing technology (hence their engineering achievements), they have not been able to make original contributions to basic science. __ Satoshi Kanazawa

Kanazawa follows his claim with a table of Nobel Prize winners, which demonstrates the relative dominance of Anglo and Euro countries in Nobel Prizes, and the relative underachievement of East Asian nations.

The contrast between the five Euro-American nations and the nine Asian nations cannot be starker. The first four Euro-American nations are overrepresented among the Nobel laureates by a factor of 5 to 10; Switzerland is overrepresented by a factor of 28! In sharp contrast, all Asian nations are underrepresented among the Nobel laureates. __ Satoshi Kanazawa

La Griffe du Lion looks at the high average IQs vs. the lagging nature of East Asian nations in per capita GDPs and suggests that it is the unbalanced nature of East Asian IQ that is at fault. With a very high visuo-spatial component but a relatively lower verbal component to their IQ scores, East Asians may lack the necessary “balance” to break out of the role as “the world’s factories.”

Charles Murray tried to provide as many examples of East Asian achievement as he could in his masterful book “Human Accomplishment.” But when he was finished, the scholarly tome was mostly filled by the accomplishments of dead white males. There were simply not enough East Asian ultra-high achievers to make much of a dent in the overall trend of mostly-Europeans.

Lack of Curiosity?

This lack of curiosity extended into science. While ancient China was in many ways more technologically advanced than ancient Greece, knowledge for its own sake was never valued. The ancient Greeks in contrast wrote and debated tirelessly about abstract ideas that had no connection to the real world. _HBDBooks

The Chinese never did systematise their scientific and technical knowledge. Only with an interconnected system of science and technology could a revolution such as occurred in the west after 1500 have occurred.

Consider also that the state of Chinese medicine up until recently testifies to the general backwardness of indigenous scientific scholarship over the many centuries past.

Those who are impressed by inventions of ancient China should also have the awareness to be disappointed by what the Chinese actually did with their inventions — especially after the Song Dynasty fell to the Mongols almost 1,000 years ago. The burning of the treasure fleet is a sad example.

What Does the Future Hold?

When East Asian scientists and engineers migrate to the west, their productivity seems to increase. Perhaps just getting out of that pit of conformism — especially in China — allows latent independent ambition to bloom? But inside of the infinitely pigeon-holed nation of China, the necessary level of organic interconnectedness between science, technology, society, and the world at large simply does not exist. The elites of the CPC cannot allow that level of communication for fear that insurrection would follow.

History teaches us that in China it is natural for the nation to split into warring fiefdoms on a regular, periodic basis. More

We can be sure that the surface level of strength and confidence exhibited by PRC propaganda outlets does not reflect what is truly happening behind the curtains.

Some of the material here was previously published on the original Al Fin blog

China’s modern predicament:

The massive gravy train of foreign investment and voluntary technology transfer to China is slowing. Foreign-owned factories are moving out of the country.

Sinking numbers in 6 key sectors

  • Manufacturing jobs,
  • Electrical machinery exports,
  • Rail freight,
  • Electricity generation,
  • Auto sales,
  • Box Office revenues

Coal imports are also down, and likely many other items not mentioned in most reports.

t is becoming harder and more expensive for China to steal its “innovations.” The Yuan has fallen in value. The decline started in 2008 but was papered over by a massive ongoing stimulus and indebtedness. More of China’s trading “partners” are choosing to opt out of BRI projects. Eventually the house of cards cannot hold itself up.

Rather than to risk insurrection as living standards collapse, the CPC is more likely to start a war to boost nationalist sentiment. Taiwan is the most likely target. Whatever the communists do will be risky unless they can get a more manageable US president in place.

China’s Hong Kong problem simmers on

The CPC has few tools to manage its imperial acquisitions other than the heavy hand. Xinjian and Tibet are other imperial holdings that are simmering at levels uncomfortable for Beijing. Things eventually fall apart.

China’s organ transplant program is less popular worldwide now that more people know where the organs come from.

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Styles of Thought

The human brain did not evolve with any particular end in mind. But we have been lucky to find at this late date in our evolution that our brains are capable of several types of thinking. Using these different approaches to thought gives us a far wider range of possibilities for dealing with a most uncertain future. The examples below are provided by Dr. Edward De Bono, a pioneer in modern thinking styles.

Creativity

Creativity is about bringing something new into the world, seemingly out of the blue. The more startling and unexpected the new thing, the more creative the work required to bring it about.

The human brain is not designed to be creative. It is designed to set up routine patterns and to use and follow these patterns… We may need to use routine patterns 98 per cent of the time and only be creative 2 per cent of the time. __ Think Before It’s Too Late

We live in a world that depends upon a constant stream of innovation and creativity. But children in schools from kindergarten to university are being taught to be passive recipients of politically correct wisdom. Independent thought is discouraged if it does not toe the line of top-down conformist dogma. If future generations cannot think creatively, what sad dreary world does the future hold in store?

Design

Design involves taking components which already exist in reality or imagination, and arranging them in a way to generate new possibilities.

Design means putting together the things that we have in order to deliver the values we want. Design is all about the real world. How do you design your career? How do you design your life? … __ Think

Perception

If we are not paying attention, our brains are not receiving the high quality raw material they need to produce logical thought and judgments of the highest quality.

… 90 per cent of the errors in thinking are errors of perception. Logic plays only a small part. And no matter how excellent the logic may be, if the perception is faulty the answer will be wrong. __ Think

Logic

Logic, analysis, and judgment are necessary parts of almost all modes of thinking. But ordinary deductive logic can only work with what already exists, in order to make a judgment or decision.

Even this mundane type of thinking is relatively rare among humans. Most of our “thinking” is automatic and instinctive.

… conscious control is exerted only at critical junctures, when a definite choice or a plan has to be made. In between, unconscious routines are continuously triggered and executed, so that consciousness can float free of all those details and proceed to plan and make sense of the grand scheme of things. __ Gerald Edelman and Giulio Tononi: A Universe of Consciousness

This suggests that logic plays a very small part of the inner life of most human brains, and that consequently creativity plays a much smaller, infinitesimal part of the whole.

Critical Thinking

Critical thinking [judgment thinking] is merely the use of certain limited forms of logic to judge and destroy “silly thinking.” This is not what you are told by your college professors of critical thinking, but it is the simple fact of the matter. And because your professors shape the forms of logic used in their style of “judgment thinking” — and dictate how these forms of logic should be used — the entire exercise becomes limiting (and warped) in the extreme.

Art

Art is often confused with creativity. Sometimes creativity is a part of the work of certain artists, but the two things are not the same.

… many artists are not creative per se; They are powerful stylists who have a valuable style of perception and expression. Many artists even become trapped in a certain style because it is what the world has come to expect of them. __ Think

Obsession with “Truth”

An obsession with the truth can hardly be criticised as wrong. But this obsession can prevent the development of the mentally important role of speculation and possibility. ___ Think

In a world full of errant fantasy, it is important to use every tool and effort to get at underlying truths. But in a world where new ideas and disruptive innovations are needed, more creative styles of thinking can get entire societies and civilisations out of very deep and seemingly hopeless ruts.

Conscious Logic, Subconscious Creativity?

We sometimes believe that the conscious mind is only good for logical thinking and judgments/decisions. And since truly creative ideas seem to spring up out of nowhere, we can easily conclude that creativity emerges only from the subconscious.

But most of what comes out of the subconscious is useless gibberish. It takes most of the energy of our brains just to filter the garbage before it spills into our conscious lives. So how can we make it more likely for our subconscious minds to form creative thoughts that are useful to us in the here and now?

For some people, the process seems to occur naturally — whether in the field of physics, or in mathematics, in music, in art, or in technology. But each of these “creative persons” has devised a conscious inducer for subconscious creativity. It is this “bridge” connecting the conscious with the subconscious minds that allows the flow of creativity of an Einstein, a Mozart, a da Vinci, or a Tesla.

Dr. Edward de Bono has devised a number of approaches to creative thinking, the most famous one being Lateral Thinking. Lateral Thinking utilises a number of conscious provocations to stimulate the development of subconscious patterns of creativity.

The Collective Brain

We are being urged by modern societies to enter a brave new world of the “collective brain.” It began even before the printing press, with religious modes of thought far back into antiquity. But with the coming of newspapers, television, mass education, and the internet, the collective brain is truly coming into its own.

It may seem to many that “two heads are better than one,” and that millions of heads must logically be better than one or a few heads. But where can you find a million heads that could have devised Einstein’s theory of special relativity? Where are the million heads that could write Mozart’s Requiem? What million heads could produce Michelangelo’s David?

There are many important creations that require inputs from multiple brains. But throughout history so many of the most crucial discoveries and most beautiful creations could have only come from the prepared minds of special individuals who had a long history of having learned to think in special ways. And the cumulative experiences of such persons up to the point of creation combined to generate something unique and special to the world, which has been used and cherished by multiple societies ever since.

It is tragic that most schools from kindergarten through university approach teaching as a type of mind-shaping into a conformist ideology that has been dictated to them from government institutions and powerful foundations. Most children who graduate from such schools will not have been strong enough to resist this process of indoctrination into politically correct consensus. As a result of this brainwashing into conformist “thought,” society is becoming woefully short of the creative thinkers (and broadly logical thinkers) it so desperately needs.

When all children are taught to conform, who will lead?

Perhaps we should make provisions for the coming consequences of this long-standing, misguided approach to schooling. Yes, we should hope for the best. But also prepare for the worst.

Remember: It is never too late for a Dangerous Childhood © .

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Jordan Peterson: The Movie

A new documentary about the Jordan Peterson phenomenon is being released in movie theatres, titled “The Rise of Jordan Peterson.” It is an attempt to present the man with all his warts, wrinkles, and foibles — while also revealing the immense wisdom that Peterson has unearthed through decades of study and struggle.

Jordan Peterson isn’t always ready for his close up. His temper flares as college protesters attempt to drown out his message. The professor steps back from those moments, eager to learn why his emotions got the best of him.

He’s endlessly curious, and sometimes fears he’s sharing the wrong life lessons. His fans may disagree, showering him with praise for the impact his “Rules” had on their lives. The film could have trimmed away some of that adulation.

Peterson wrote the book on getting one’s life in order, and it’s a stern but kind message that continues to reverberate in a culture kowtowing to victimhood. __ https://www.hollywoodintoto.com/rise-of-jordan-peterson-review/

Below is a trailer for the documentary:

Peterson Has Entered Rehab

Jordan Peterson’s wife Tammy has been fighting cancer, and that may have proven the straw that strained the camel’s back. Peterson was prescribed the anti-anxiety drug clonazepam, and after a number of months discovered that he was unable to stop taking the drug on his own. According to his daughter Mikhaila he has entered rehab to deal with this addiction and other health issues.

He tried to quit cold-turkey over the summer after his wife, Tammy Roberts, “miraculously” recovered from complications with a kidney surgery, Mikhaila said.

But he went through “horrific” physical withdrawal that has left him looking “like a lost puppy,” she said.

“He decided to check himself into a place because he didn’t want to stress mom out, wanted to get off of this as quickly as possible, and honestly needs the medical help…” said Mikhaila __ https://nypost.com/2019/09/20/jordan-peterson-enters-rehab-after-wifes-cancer-diagnosis/

Peterson’s travel schedule connected with his “Rules for Life” world book tour was hellishly demanding, and that alone — combined with a rapidly growing fame — would have brought most men stumbling to a halt. But if you also throw in a wife and childhood sweetheart’s life and death battle with cancer, it is no surprise that the man began showing some cracks in his armour.

Below is a Peterson family video update from Mikhaila Peterson:

The update video provides some inside information as to why Dr. Peterson has backed away from much of the public spotlight over the past several months. It also provides a serious warning to those who are taking clonazepam or who are considering taking the drug.

Jordan Peterson Has Just Begun to Fight

The documentary “Rise of Jordan Peterson” is coming out at the same time that Peterson is himself recovering from a very dark time. Expect to see a Jordan Peterson emerge who gains even more strength through an honest exposure of his inner struggle.

Anyone who doubts the depth, strength, and resilience of Jordan Peterson has a lot to learn. And Jordan Peterson is just the person to teach them. Stay tuned.

Posted in Jordan Peterson | Tagged | 10 Comments

Working Age Populations Crash: What Does It Mean?

Compare the changes in working age populations for 8 nations in the graphs below. In the first graph we see the changes between 1990 and 2019.

Working Age Population Chane from 1990 – 2019
Census Bureau International Database
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/three-big-things-the-most-important-forces-shaping-the-world/


In the second graph we see changes projected for working age populations between 2019 and 2050.

Change in Working Age Population 2019 – 2050
Census Bureau International Database
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/three-big-things-the-most-important-forces-shaping-the-world/

We are already seeing tangible declines in working age populations in Germany, Japan, and Russia. But between 2019 and 2050 it seems that the bottom will fall out for those three nations plus everyone else except France and the US. Working age populations include the people who work in the professions, in the military, in law enforcement, in factories, and who maintain the critical infrastructures. If these infrastructures are not maintained, the society’s standard of living and quality of life will crash.

Can Robots Replace Humans?

In many areas of work, computer software and robots are already replacing humans. This trend will continue at a measured pace, as managers and business owners compute the cost benefit for each position on the payroll, and decide whether a lower cost alternative is possible. But computer brains are still very limited in terms of dealing with the irrational world of reality, and for all its flashy signature victories AI still stinks!

Even so, we can expect incremental improvements in computer software and robotic actuators every year. Japan is using robots to care for its burgeoning elderly population, and sex robots are rumored to be more popular there as well.

What Will Change?

As older generations of workers retire and die off, they will be increasingly replaced by persons immigrating from parts of the world where average population IQs are lower, and where rates of violent crime are higher. Ethnic Russian populations, for example, are being replaced by less intelligent workers from Central Asia. Such wholesale population substitutions across the more advanced nations that are in demographic decline, will have a significant impact on the ability of nations to maintain their critical infrastructures.

At the same time, more intelligent and talented young people will tend to migrate away from nations-in-decline, toward those nations that are still capable of maintaining advanced infrastructures that support higher standards of living and quality of life. We are already seeing this in the current phase of the Russian diaspora, with hundreds of thousands of Russia’s best leaving yearly.

The share of Russians seeking to move permanently to another country had never passed Gallup’s 17-percent high in 2007, the U.S. pollster’s results say. However, this number has grown steadily over the past five years, tripling from 7 percent in 2014 to 20 percent in 2018. __ https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/04/04/record-number-of-russians-want-to-emigrate-gallup-a65092

More

At the same time, the number of Russian women in the child-bearing years has dropped alarmingly. Birth rates are down accordingly, and Russian death rates remain distressingly high for young and middle-aged men. All of these things take a toll on the Russian working age population, leading to a compounding impact of decline.

These problems are not unique to Russia, although they are somewhat worse there due to high rates of alcoholism, drug abuse, suicide, HIV, TB, economic hardship, and general despair.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

It is unfortunate that these challenges are facing the most advanced nations of Earth at the same time as a massive political, academic, and cultural “dumbing down” seems to be hitting most of them. It is no surprise that an economic recession is being predicted for much of Europe and other parts of the world. You cannot enforce “institutional stupidity” at the same time as your working age populations are shrinking — and still expect to breed a prosperous and abundant national experience.

Perhaps the crowning act of stupidity in all of this is the widespread embrace of catastrophic energy policies such as Germany’s Energiewende disaster. Without reliable and affordable energy supplies, industries leave the country, jobs disappear, more people cannot afford electricity, and quality of life gradually collapses.

Watch and learn. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .

Posted in Demographics | Tagged | 9 Comments

Heredity and Behaviour in Dog Breeds

Evan MacLean (University of Arizona), Noah Snyder-Mackler (University of Washington), Bridgett vonHoldt (Princeton University), and James Serpell (University of Pennsylvania) recently published a paper in Proceedings of the Royal Society B, looking at the heritability of 14 dog behaviours. The title of the paper is Highly heritable and functionally relevant breed differences in dog behaviour.

The authors compared behavioural profiles from 14,000 dogs (101 different breeds) with breed genetic data. Comparing behavioural profiles with breed genetic data for each of the 14 different “dog behaviours,” revealed levels of heritability above 0.50 for each trait.

The authors defined heritability as Genetic Variation (Vg) divided by Genetic Variation (Vg) + Environmental Variation (Ve). H = Vg/Vg+Ve

The behavioural traits examined were:

Stranger-directed aggression
Owner-directed aggression
Dog-directed aggression
Dog rivalry
Stranger-directed fear
Nonsocial fear
Dog-directed fear
Separation-related behavior
Attachment and attention-seeking
Trainability
Chasing
Excitability
Touch sensitivity
Energy level

More

For traits such as aggression toward strangers, trainability and chasing, the researchers found that genes contribute 60 to 70 percent of behavioral variation among breeds. Poodles and border collies, for example, had higher trainability scores, while Chihuahuas and dachshunds had higher aggression toward strangers.

Energy level and fearfulness showed a smaller genetic contribution, about 50 percent, suggesting that differences in environment or training play an equally important role in shaping those behaviors.

“Such strong correlations suggest that these were traits that people historically cared about and bred for,” says coauthor Evan MacLean, a biologist at the University of Arizona in Tucson.

The researchers then sought out specific genetic variants that might contribute to behavioral differences. Against thousands of variants, 131 stuck out as significantly associated with breeds’ behavior. No single gene was overwhelmingly associated with any behavior, suggesting that breed behavioral diversity arises from the complex interplay of many genes in addition to environmental differences. __ https://www.sciencenews.org/article/dog-breed-behavior-genetics

Dog Behaviours, Dog Genes, Human Genes

Genes have an effect on behaviours, no matter the species. This is true for dogs as it is true for crocodiles, lions, and rattlesnakes. We are just beginning to understand which genes are most important for which behavioural ensembles. Science needs to be free to do the necessary studies to make the connections clear.

In the study above, the authors discovered parallels between “behavioural genes” in dogs and analogous genes in humans.

The locations of these DNA hot spots make sense: Some are within or close to genes tied to aggression in humans, for example, whereas DNA associated with the dog’s level of trainability is found in genes that in humans are associated with intelligence and information processing.

The findings suggest behavior is guided by the same genes in many species, MacLean says. And if, for example, genes underlying anxiety in dogs lead to those same genes in people, that discovery may ultimately lead to better treatments for anxiety-related disorders, Serpell says. “These are the kinds of things we can see in the future.” __ https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/01/dog-breeds-really-do-have-distinct-personalities-and-they-re-rooted-dna

Supplementary materials for above study

Dogs Make a Good Model for Studying Genes and Behaviour

Because humans are so familiar with dog behaviours, and because humans have played an active role in selectively breeding dogs for specific behaviours and appearances for many centuries (probably for thousands of years), the study of links between dog genes and dog behaviours provides a good model for generating hypotheses to aid similar future studies in humans.

This is not politically correct, but it is good scientific thinking. If we are to solve the lion’s share of the problems we have currently created for ourselves, we need to understand how to avoid the delusions of mass thinking and dysfunctional mass behaviours that plague our world.

More: Trying to make the study of IQ in humans more objective

Posted in Genetics and Gene Expression | Tagged | Leave a comment

Without Fossil Fuels Modern Civilisation is Impossible

80% of Energy Comes from Fossil Fuels

World Energy Consumption by Fuel, based on data of 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/10/02/understanding-why-the-green-new-deal-wont-really-work/

With over 80% of energy consumption coming from fossil fuels, pretty much everything we have in our economy today is available thanks to fossil fuels. We wouldn’t have today’s homes, schools or grocery stores without fossil fuels. Even solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and modern hydroelectric dams would not be possible without fossil fuels. In fact, for the foreseeable future, we cannot make any of these devices with electricity alone.

Without adequate energy, an economy tends to collapse. Economists are generally not aware of this important point.

Agriculture is dependent upon fossil fuels, particularly oil. Petrochemicals are used directly to make herbicides, pesticides, medications for animals and nitrogen fertilizer. Huge quantities of energy are necessary to make metals of all kinds, such as the steel in agricultural equipment and in irrigation pumps. Refrigerated vehicles transport produce to market, using mostly oil-based fuel. __ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/10/02/understanding-why-the-green-new-deal-wont-really-work/

In fact, all of our critical infrastructures rely on abundant and affordable fossil fuels to keep us alive. Pretending that our society could safely transition to 100% renewable (wind and solar) energy in less than 100 to 150 years is a dangerous fantasy that puts everyone at risk.

With that stark reality in mind, in 2019 China has cut back deeply on its renewable energy spending and subsidies.

Countries are investing less because renewable projects are heavily dependent upon subsidies that are being cut as countries face rising electricity prices and large subsidy bills. Residential electricity prices are twice the U.S. price in Spain and three times the U.S. price in Denmark and Germany—countries that subsidized renewable investment early on. Their electric customers are suffering under heavy utility bills despite renewable energy supplying 30 to 60 percent of their electricity.

… In Japan, investment was down by 16 percent, in India by 20 percent, in Germany by 26 percent, and in the United Kingdom by 56 percent. __ https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/global-investment-renewable-energy-stalled-due-subsidy-cuts/

Renewable Mandates Generate Ruin

Utility scale wind and solar cannot survive on their own merits. Without expensive government subsidies, mandates, tax breaks, and other economically debilitating handouts to wealthy developers, wind farms and solar arrays become giant junkyards across the landscapes of the world.

The US public is being sold a “Green New Deal” (GND) that would cost many $trillions. But would the GND deliver the goods?

The reasons why the Green New Deal won’t really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. __ https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/10/02/understanding-why-the-green-new-deal-wont-really-work/

Yes, the devil is in the details — but like all shifty characters, the salesmen for the GND are very short on details, while they are full of all kinds of promises.

Modern Societies Cannot Survive on Intermittent Energy

With coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants, life-sustaining electric power can be routed onto the power grid in abundant quantity, high quality, affordable prices, and at the times when the power is needed by customers. This is not true for utility scale wind and solar — which put the existence of modern civilisation at risk by their undependable nature. Modern civilisation cannot live without its critical infrastructures. And critical infrastructures cannot survive without affordable, reliable, high quality electric power. And high quality, abundant, and affordable power cannot be provided (today and for the next 100+ years) without fossil fuels in large quantities.

In the future, advanced nuclear power may allow a transition to infrastructures based largely upon nuclear-powered electricity. Once reliable, non-intermittent alternatives to fossil fuels are scaled up sufficiently, an orderly transition from fossil fuels to advanced alternatives can begin. But that will take several decades for even the most advanced countries — and probably more than 150 years for most of the world.

Energy Poverty and Recession Accompany Poorly Planned Energy Transition in Deutschland

If societies try to transition to alternative forms of energy and power before they have ironed out the wrinkles, they are likely to make the critical mistakes made by Germany and to a lesser extent the UK.

The root of most of the stupid thinking underlying the precipitous flight from fossil fuels is clearly the cult-like Climate Apocalypse movement. But some of the retreat from rationality must be laid at the feet of the Peak Oil Armageddon mindset. As long as either delusion — or both — are held by powerful policymakers in any given society, that society will be held ransom to endless pseudoscientific rationalisations excusing ruinous economic and energy policies.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .

More: The video below illustrates the competence level of the popular front for the extinction of humans via the adoption of renewable energy (big wind and big solar) —

h/t Watts Up With That

Be assured that these echo choir singers put every bit of that competence into their analyses of global energy, ecology, and climate . . . and they work especially hard devising practical solutions to the world’s problems.

More on reality vs. fantasy on the electric power grid

Germany, once a power exporter, is now an importer and has resorted to expanding coal use in order to keep the lights on and minimize natural-gas imports. A new McKinsey study concludes that high prices are destined to go even higher in Germany, threatening industrial competitiveness and degrading reliability. Their conclusion: Germany must make a “fundamental turn in energy policy.”

And Texas, where the share of power generated from wind is the highest in the nation, at 16 percent, barely skirted several blackouts this past summer, for the same reasons. Wind lulls at times of high demand required emergency alerts for “voluntary” reduction of demand. If the available power had dropped by just 1.5 percent more, the system operator would have been forced to impose rolling blackouts. If one were betting, though: It will be California (again) that will lead the way to green-induced blackouts.

Posted in Climate, Doom, Energy, Peak Oil, Wind | Tagged | 2 Comments

SpaceX: Mission to Mars, Earth, Luna — and Beyond

Elon Musk has one good company — SpaceX. The company has proven that it can provide reliable and economical space launch for most modern uses of space, from satellite launches to space station resupply. But Musk is introducing new goals for his space rockets to fulfill, that can change the trajectory of the human race forever — and make Musk himself a multi-trillionaire many times over.

SpaceX Mission to Mars

SpaceX is still on track to start launching humans to Mars in the mid-2020s. That time frame likely has something to do with the fact that the next suitable launch windows, based on the positions of Earth and Mars, will occur in 2024 and 2026.

__ https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-mars-transportation-plans.html

SpaceX wants to build a million-person city on Mars. It will take decades to build such a city and to transport a million people there to live and work. But the plans for such a venture are being made in all seriousness by a space entrepreneur who has already proven his ability to do what others could not do.

It all starts with the first manned Starship mission to Mars, expected sometime after 2023. This past week, it emerged that SpaceX is evaluating a number of spots to land these first Starships.

The astronauts’ initial goal would be to set up a propellant depot, which could harvest resources on Mars and create liquid oxygen and methane. This would be used to refuel the Starship and power its Raptor engines, which don’t need rocket propellant unlike those used on SpaceX’s current Falcon 9 rocket.

Once that’s set up, the astronauts could either return home or move out further, establishing a planet-hopping network with refueling stations along the way. This is a dream of founder Elon Musk, who has described his vision of humanity as a multi-planetary species. Musk has described the potential for a million-strong city on Mars, while Neil deGrasse Tyson has noted how planet-hopping could reduce resource scarcity and the need to go to war.

SpaceX’s Mars ambitions have sparked both caution at how it could physically alter humans, and excitement about how it could transform humanity.

__ https://www.inverse.com/article/59036-starship-here-s-where-spacex-wants-to-land-on-mars

SpaceX Mission to Earth

If the SpaceX Starship can be made to be safe enough for routine public transport, the company could provide regular 30 minute flights between cities on different continents — for a reasonable price of $1000 to $2000 per passenger per flight.

If SpaceX can reach improved safety then they would be able to replace almost all flights with over 8 hours of flying time for coach, business, first-class, and private jets.

100 million passengers per year would be about $100 billion per year of revenue.
1 billion passengers per year would be about $1 trillion per year of revenue.

SpaceX will be able to start with one hour package or urgent deliveries anywhere in the world. Instead of overnight delivery, it will be one-hour deliveries. __ https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/09/age-of-steel-spaceliners.html

Note the optimistic earnings projection of up to $1 trillion per year in a high passenger flow scenario.

Another profitable “mission to Earth” for SpaceX is the upcoming “Starlink” fleet of 12,000 internet satellites slated to provide global high-speed internet to everywhere on Earth — with low latency. Such an internet provider could earn into the $trillions yearly, depending upon the business model.

SpaceX Mission to Luna

The US space agency NASA has plans to return to the moon. Since NASA’s own space launch system is behind schedule and well above budget, the agency has begun to discuss plans of using SpaceX Starship rockets to provide its launch and transport to and from Luna.

SpaceX has also talked about flying paying customers to lunar orbit and back, without landing, as one-off joyride experiences. In addition, SpaceX will likely continue to provide launch assistance to others who have aspirations to land on the moon.

Beyond Mars

If SpaceX succeeds in planting successful human cities on Mars, the company is not likely to stop there. Most of the planetary mass in the solar system is in the outer system, in the domain of the gas giants and their rich moons. The first human enterprise to master the harvesting of resources from the outer system planets and their moons, will be in position to build truly self-sustaining extraterrestrial human outposts for the long term.

The Competition

Elon Musk’s main competition to populate outer space with large numbers of humans, is Jeff Bezos of Amazon fame. Bezos’ space company is called Blue Origin, and it is spending close to $1 billion per year in the effort to catch up to SpaceX and eventually surpass it, if possible.

Blue’s vision is a future where millions of people are living and working in space. In order to preserve Earth, our home, for our grandchildren’s grandchildren, we must go to space to tap its unlimited resources and energy. If we can lower the cost of access to space with reusable launch vehicles, we can all enable this dynamic future for humanity. __ https://www.blueorigin.com/

Blue Origin has ongoing plans to enter the $trillion market for global internet provision using LEO satellites in a large fleet — in direct competition with SpaceX’s Starlink fleet.

It is likely that the two companies will be in direct competition on many projects into the space future.

China in Space

The Communist Party of China has launched an ambitious program of space development in order to dominate the high frontier — for both civilian and military use. Judging by China’s actions on Earth, China is likely to claim ownership of anything it can lay its hands on — regardless of prior claim.

As the proverbial “bull in the China shop,” the communist party government of China is likely to make things much more interesting than might be preferred. China seems to want total dominance of space, with no other viable players in the solar system. The idea of private corporations in space — and large numbers of people living and working in space free of CCP domination — would clearly be anathema to China’s current government.

Islam in Space

For anyone who remembers the many Muslim terrorist bombings over the past several decades, the thought of an Islamic presence in space may not be comforting. The space environment is hazardous enough as it is, without introducing the element of fanatical religion into the mix. It is not clear whether China or Islam would be the larger threat to an extended society of free spacers, but each would earn a wary eye from most independent and productive space dwellers.

Expanding the Space Horizon

Within the inner solar system, resources for human enterprise can be found on Luna, on Mars, and in asteroids. If these resources prove to be affordably exploitable, humans can leapfrog to the outer system — where resources are more plentiful. Exploiting the resources of the outer system will require an element of “self-sufficiency” and independence from Earth which may not be attained for several decades.

Jeff Bezos envisions a trillion people living in the solar system — made possible by extraterrestrial resources.

His [Bezos’] solution? Move off the planet and into space colonies — enormous ones, and lots of them.

“These are very large structures, miles on end, and they hold a million people or more each,” he explained. He envisions millions of such colonies housing trillions of people, sustained by continuous sunshine and the vast resources available on the moon, asteroids and other parts of the solar system. __ Source

Coming from anyone else, it sounds like moonshine. But from the wealthiest man on Earth who is spending $1 billion a year to make it possible, it just sounds a bit loonie. Nevertheless, if your plan can be logically formulated step by step, with each step solidly supporting the next, you are justified in proceeding until you run out of money — or until your plan becomes tangibly harmful to others.

We certainly need a different class of person to live in space — more intelligent, more resourceful, and more emotionally stable. But it is probably best if others besides Musk and Bezos get to work learning how to grow a type of person more likely to build an abundant and expansive space future for the long term.

Right now, the average IQ for the human race on Earth is about 90 — when scores are standardised to a UK mean of 100. Space populations with average IQs of 90 will not survive in such an unforgiving environment. But populations with an average IQ of 140 might provide the wide variety of skills needed to fly from the nest.

For now, although we are limited to baby steps we can still plan better technologies and experiment with them. If we can succeed in the current climate of relative freedom, we may be able to ride past the inevitable waves of tyranny that will attempt to stymie our longer term aspirations.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .

More: Considering one form of faster than light warp drive

Update on Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic

Posted in Asteroids, Space Future | Tagged | 3 Comments

John Boyd: Destruction and Creation

Link to Paper: John Boyd: Destruction and Creation PDF

This short work by John Boyd is re-published below to illustrate the type of thinking that is necessary to break out of fixed perspectives on how past and current events shape the future. Written by USAF Col. John Boyd in 1976, the ideas presented were part of a larger approach to a strategy of conflict being developed at that time by Col. Boyd. We believe that every person graduating from high school and/or beginning college should be given the opportunity to begin to understand this “higher level” approach to thinking.

DESTRUCTION AND CREATION By JOHN R. BOYD
3 September 1976

ABSTRACT

To comprehend and cope with our environment we develop mental patterns or concepts of meaning. The purpose of this paper is to sketch out how we destroy and create these patterns to permit us to both shape and be shaped by a changing environment. In this sense, the discussion also literally shows why we cannot avoid this kind of activity if we intend to survive on our own terms. The activity is dialectic in nature generating both disorder and order that emerges as a changing and expanding universe of mental concepts matched to a changing and expanding universe of observed reality.

DESTRUCTION AND CREATION

GOAL

Studies of human behavior reveal that the actions we undertake as individuals are closely related to survival, more importantly, survival on our own terms. Naturally, such a notion implies that we should be able to act relatively free or independent of any debilitating external influences—otherwise that very survival might be in jeopardy. In viewing the instinct for survival in this manner we imply that a basic aim or goal, as individuals, is to improve our capacity for independent action. The degree to which we cooperate, or compete, with others is driven by the need to satisfy this basic goal. If we believe that it is not possible to satisfy it alone, without help from others, history shows us that we will agree to constraints upon our independent action—in order to collectively pool skills and talents in the form of nations, corporations, labor unions, mafias, etc. —so that obstacles standing in the way of the basic goal can either be removed or overcome. On the other hand, if the group cannot or does not attempt to overcome obstacles deemed important to many (or possibly any) of its individual members, the group must risk losing these alienated members. Under these circumstances, the alienated members may dissolve their relationship and remain independent, form a group of their own, or join another collective body in order to improve their capacity for independent action.

ENVIRONMENT

In a real world of limited resources and skills, individuals and groups form, dissolve and reform their cooperative or competitive postures in a continuous struggle to remove or overcome physical and social environmental obstacles.[11,13] In a cooperative sense, where skills and talents are pooled, the removal or overcoming of obstacles represents an improved capacity for independent action for all concerned. In a competitive sense, where individuals and groups compete for scarce re-sources and skills, an improved capacity for independent action achieved by some individuals or groups constrains that capacity for other individuals or groups. Naturally, such a combination of real world scarcity and goal striving to overcome this scarcity intensifies the struggle of individuals and groups to cope with both their physical and social environments.[11,13]

NEED FOR DECISIONS

Against such a background, actions and decisions become critically important. Actions must be taken over and over again and in many different ways. Decisions must be rendered to monitor and determine the precise nature of the actions needed that will be compatible with the goal. To make these timely decisions implies that we must be able to form mental concepts of observed reality, as we perceive it, and be able to change these concepts as reality itself appears to change. The concepts can then be used as decision-models for improving our capacity for inde-pendent action. Such a demand for decisions that literally impact our survival causes one to wonder: How do we generate or create the mental concepts to support this decision-making activity?

CREATING CONCEPTS

There are two ways in which we can develop and manipulate mental concepts to rep-resent observed reality: we can start from a comprehensive whole and break it down to its particulars or we can start with the particulars and build towards a comprehensive whole.[28,24] Saying it another way, but in a related sense, we can go from the general-to-specific or from the specific-to-general. A little reflection here reveals that deduction is related to proceeding from the general-to-specific while induction is related to proceeding from the specific-to-general. In following this line of thought, can we think of other activities that are related to these two opposing ideas? Is not analysis related to proceeding from the general-to-specific? Is not synthesis, the opposite of analysis, related to proceeding from the specific-to-general? Putting all this together: Can we not say that general-to-specific is related to both deduction and analysis, while specific-to-general is related to induction and synthesis? Now, can we think of some examples to fit with these two opposing ideas? We need not look far. The differential calculus proceeds from the general-to-specific—from a function to its derivative. Hence, is not the use or application of the differential calculus related to deduction and analysis? The integral calculus, on the other hand, proceeds in the opposite direction—from a derivative to a general function. Hence, is not the use or application of the integral calculus related to induction and syn-thesis? Summing up, we can see that: general-to-specific is related to deduction, analysis, and differentiation, while, specific-to-general is related to induction, synthesis, and integration.

Now keeping these two opposing idea chains in mind let us move on a somewhat different tack. Imagine, if you will, a domain (a comprehensive whole) and its constituent elements or parts. Now, imagine another do-main and its constituent parts. Once again, imagine even another domain and its constituent parts. Repeating this idea over and over again we can imagine any number of domains and the parts corresponding to each. Naturally, as we go through life we develop concepts of meaning (with included constituents) to represent observed reality. Can we not liken these concepts—and their related constituents—to the domains and constituents that we have formed in our imagina-tion? Naturally, we can. Keeping this relationship in mind, suppose we shatter the correspondence of each domain or concept with its constituent elements. In other words, we imagine the existence of the parts but pretend that the domains or concepts they were previously associated with do not exist. Result: We have many constituents, or particulars, swimming around in a sea of anarchy. We have uncertainty and disorder in place of meaning and order. Further, we can see that such an unstructuring or destruction of many domains—to break the correspondence of each with its respective constituents—is related to deduction, analysis, and differentiation. We call this kind of unstructuring a destructive deduction.

Faced with such disorder or chaos, how can we reconstruct order and meaning? Going back to the idea chain of specific-to-general, induction, synthesis, and integration, the thought occurs that a new domain or concept can be formed if we can find some common qualities, attributes, or operations among some or many of these constituents swimming in this sea of anarchy. Through such connecting threads (that produce meaning) we synthesize constituents from, hence across, the domains we have just shattered.[24] Linking, particulars together in this manner we can form a new domain or concept—providing, of course, we do not inadvertently use only those “bits and pieces” in the same arrangement that we associated with one of the domains purged from our imagination. Clearly, such a synthesis would indicate we have generated something new and different from what previously existed. Going back to our idea chain, it follows that creativity is related to induction, synthesis, and integration since we proceeded from unstructured bits and pieces to a new general pattern or concept. We call such action a creative or constructive induction. It is important to note that the crucial or key step that permits this creative induction is the separation of the particulars from their previous domains by the destructive deduction. Without this unstructuring the creation of a new structure cannot proceed—since the bits and pieces are still tied together as meaning within unchallenged domains or concepts.

Recalling that we use concepts or mental patterns to represent reality, it follows that the unstructuring and restructuring just shown reveals a way of changing our perception of reality.[28] Naturally, such a notion implies that the emerging pattern of ideas and interactions must be internally consistent and match up with reality.[14,15] To check or verify internal consistency we try to see if we can trace our way back to the original constituents that were used in the creative or constructive induction. If we cannot reverse directions, the ideas and interactions do not go together in this way without contradiction. Hence, they are not internally consistent. However, this does not necessarily mean we reject and throw away the entire structure. Instead, we should attempt to identify those ideas (particulars) and interactions that seem to hold together in a coherent pattern of activity as distinguished from those ideas that do not seem to fit in. In performing this task, we check for reversibility as well as check to see which ideas and interactions match up with our observations of reality.[27,14,15] Using those ideas and interactions that pass this test, together with any new ideas (from new destructive deductions) or other promising ideas that popped out of the original destructive deduction, we again attempt to find some common qualities, attributes, or operations to re-create the concept—or create a new concept. Also, once again, we perform the check for reversibility and match-up with reality. Over and over again, this cycle of Destruction and Creation is repeated until we demonstrate internal consistency and match-up with reality.[19,14,15]

SUSPICION

When this orderly (and pleasant) state is reached the concept becomes a coherent pat-tern of ideas and interactions that can be used to describe some aspect of observed reality. As a consequence, there is little or no further appeal to alternative ideas and interactions in an effort to either expand, complete, or modify the concept .[19] Instead, the effort turned inward towards fine tuning the ideas and interactions in order to improve generality and produce a more precise match of the conceptual pattern with reality.[19] Toward this end, the concept—and its internal workings—is tested and against observed phenomena over and over again in many different and subtle ways.[19]Such a repeated and inward-oriented effort to explain increasingly more subtle aspects of reality suggests the disturbing idea that perhaps, at some point, ambiguities, uncertainties, anomalies, or apparent inconsistencies may emerge to stifle a more general and precise match-up of concept with ob-served reality.[19] Why do we suspect this?

On one hand, we realize that facts, perceptions, ideas, impressions, interactions, etc. separated from previous observations and thought patterns have been linked together to create a new conceptual pattern. On the other hand, we suspect that refined observations now underway will eventually exhibit either more or a different kind of precision and subtlety than the previous observations and thought patterns. Clearly, any anticipated difference, or differences, suggests we should expect a mismatch between the new observations and the anticipated concept description of these observations. To assume otherwise would be tantamount to admitting that previous constituents and interactions would produce the same synthesis as any newer constituents and interactions that exhibit either more or a different kind of precision and subtlety. This would be like admitting one equals two. To avoid such a discomforting position implies that we should anticipate a mismatch between phenomena observation and concept description of that observation. Such a notion is not new and is indicated by the discoveries of Kurt Godel and Werner Heisenberg.

INCOMPLETENESS AND CONSISTENCY

In 1931 Kurt Godel created a stir in the World of Mathematics and Logic when he revealed that it was impossible to embrace mathematics within a single system of logic.[12,23] He accomplished this by proving, first, that any consistent system—that includes the arithmetic of whole numbers—is incomplete. In other words, there are true statements or concepts within the system that cannot be deduced from the postulates that make up the system. Next, he proved even though such a system is consistent its consistency cannot be demonstrated within the system.Such a result does not imply that it is impossible to prove the consistency of a system. It only means that such a proof cannot be accomplished inside the system. As a matter of fact, since Godel, Gerhard Gentzen and others have shown that a consistency proof of arithmetic can be found by appealing to systems outside that arithmetic. Thus, Godel’s Proof indirectly shows that in order to determine the consistency of any new system we must con-struct or uncover another system beyond it.[29,27] Over and over this cycle must be repeated to determine the consistency of more and more elaborate systems. [29,27]

Keeping this process in mind, let us see how Godel’s results impact the effort to improve the match-up of concept with observed reality: To do this we will consider two kinds of consistency: The consistency of the concept and the consistency of the match-up be-tween observed reality and concept description of reality. In this sense, if we assume—as a result of previous destructive deduction and creative induction efforts—that we have a consistent concept and consistent match-up, we should see no differences between observation and concept description. Yet, as we have seen, on one hand, we use observations to shape or formulate a concept; while on the other hand, we use a concept to shape the nature of future inquiries or observations of reality. Back and forth, over and over again, we use observations to sharpen a concept and a concept to sharpen observations. Under these circumstances, a concept must be incomplete since we depend upon an ever-changing array of observations to shape or formulate it. Likewise, our observations of reality must be incomplete since we depend upon a changing concept to shape or formulate the nature of new inquiries and observations. Therefore, when we probe back and forth with more precision and subtlety, we must admit that we can have differences between observation and concept description; hence, we cannot determine the consistency of the system—in terms of its concept, and match-up with observed reality—within itself. Furthermore, the consistency cannot be determined even when the precision and subtlety of observed phenomena approaches the precision and subtlety of the observer—who is employing the ideas and interactions that play together in the conceptual pattern. This aspect of consistency is accounted for not only by Godel’s Proof but also by the Heisenberg Uncertainty or Indeterminacy Principle.

INDETERMINACY AND UNCERTAINTY

The Indeterminacy Principle uncovered by Werner Heisenberg in 1927 showed that one could not simultaneously fix or determine precisely the velocity and position of a particle or body.[14,9] Specifically he showed, due to the presence and influence of an observer, that the product of the velocity and position uncertainties is equal to or greater than a small number (Planck’s Constant) divided by the mass of the particle or body being investigated. In other words: )V )Q ≥ h/m where )V is velocity uncertainty, )Q is position uncertainty, and h/m is Planck’s con-stant (h) divided by observed mass (m). Examination of Heisenberg’s Principle reveals that as mass becomes exceedingly small, the uncertainty, or indeterminacy, be-comes exceedingly large. Now—in accordance with this relation—when the precision, or mass, of phenomena being observed is little or no different than the precision, or mass, of the observing phenomena, the uncertainty values become as large as, or larger than, the velocity and size frame-of-reference associated with the bodies being observed.[9]

In other words, when the intended distinction between observer and observed begins to disappear[3], the uncertainty values hide or mask phenomena behavior; or put another way, the observer perceives uncertain or erratic behavior that bounces all over in accordance with the indeterminacy relation. Under these circumstances, uncertainty values represent the inability to determine the character or nature (consistency) of a system within itself. On the other hand, if the precision and subtlety of the observed phenomena is much less than the precision and subtlety of the observing phenomena the uncertainty values become much smaller than the velocity and size values of the bodies being observed.[2] Under these circumstances, the character or nature of a system can be determined—although not exactly—since the uncertainty values do not hide or mask observed phenomena behavior nor indicate significant erratic behavior. Keeping in mind that the Heisenberg Principle implicitly depends upon the indeterminate presence and influence of an observer,[14] we can now see—as revealed by the two examples just cited—that the magnitude of the uncertainty values represent the degree of intrusion by the observer upon the ob-served. When intrusion is total (that is, when the intended distinction between observer and observed essentially disappears [3]), the uncertainty values indicate erratic behavior. When intrusion is low, the uncertainty values do not hide or mask observed phenomena behavior, nor indicate significant erratic behavior. In other words, the uncertainty values not only represent the degree of intrusion by the ob-server upon the observed but also the degree of confusion and disorder perceived by that observer.

ENTROPY AND THE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS

Confusion and disorder are also related to the notion of Entropy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics.[11,20] Entropy is a concept that represents the potential for doing work, the capacity for taking action, or the degree of confusion and disorder associated with any physical or information activity. High entropy implies a low potential for doing work, a low capacity for taking action or a high decree of confusion and disorder. Low entropy implies just the opposite. Viewed in this context, the Second-Law of Thermodynamics states that all observed natural processes generate entropy.[20] From this law it follows that entropy must increase in any closed system—or, for that matter, in any system that cannot communicate in an ordered fashion with other systems or environments external to itself. Accordingly, whenever we attempt to do work or take action inside such a system—a concept and its match-up with reality—we should anticipate an increase in entropy, hence an increase in confusion and disorder. Naturally, this means we cannot determine the character or nature (consistencv) of such a system within itself, since the system is moving irreversibly toward a higher, yet unknown, state of confusion and disorder.

DESTRUCTION AND CREATION

What an interesting outcome! According to Godel we cannot—in general—determine the consistency, hence the character or nature, of an abstract system within itself. According to Heisenberg and the Second Law of Ther-modynamics any attempt to do so in the real world will expose uncertainty and generate disorder. Taken together, these three notions support the idea that any inward-oriented and continued effort to improve the match-up of concept with observed reality will only in-crease the degree of mismatch. Naturally, in this environment, uncer-tainty and disorder will increase, as previously indicated by the Heisenberg Indeterminacy Principle and the Second Law of Thermodynamics, respectively. Put another way, we can expect unexplained and disturbing ambiguities, uncertainties, anomalies, or apparent inconsistencies to emerge more and more often. Furthermore, unless some kind of relief is available, we can expect confusion to increase until disorder approaches chaos—death. Fortunately, there is a way out. Remember, as previously shown, we can forge a new concept by applying the destructive deduction and creative induction mental operations.

Also, remember, in order to perform these dialectic mental operations we must first shatter the rigid conceptual pattern, or patterns, firmly established in our mind. (This should not be too difficult since the rising confusion and disorder is already helping us to under-mine any patterns). Next, we must find some common qualities, attributes, or operations to link isolated facts, perceptions, ideas, impressions, interactions, observations, etc., together as possible concepts to represent the real world. Finally, we must repeat this unstructuring and restructuring until we develop a concept that begins to match-up with reality. By doing this—in accordance with Godel, Heisenberg and the Second Law of Thermodynamics—we find that the uncertainty and disorder generated by an inward-oriented system to talking to itself can be offset by going outside and creating a new system. Simply stated, uncertainty and related disorder can be diminished by the direct artifice of creating a higher and broader more general concept to represent reality.

However, once again, when we begin to turn inward and use the new concept—within its own pattern of ideas and interactions—to produce a finer grain match with observed reality we note that the new concept and its match-up with observed reality begins to self-destruct just as before. Accordingly, the dialectic cycle of destruction and creation begins to repeat itself once again. In other words, as suggested by Godel’s Proof of Incompleteness, we imply that the process of Structure, Unstructure, Restructure, Unstructure, Re-structure is repeated endlessly in moving to higher and broader levels of elaboration. In this unfolding drama, the alternating cycle of entropy increase toward more and more disorder and the entropy decrease toward more and more order appears to be one part of a control mechanism that literally seems to drive and regulate this alternating cycle of destruction and creation toward higher and broader levels of elaboration. 

Now, in relating this deductive/inductive activity to the basic goal discussed in the be-ginning, I believe we have uncovered a Dialectic Engine that permits the construction of decision models needed by individuals and societies for determining and monitoring actions in an effort to improve their capacity for independent action. Furthermore, since this engine is directed toward satisfying this basic aim or goal, it follows that the goal-seeking effort itself appears to be the other side of a control mechanism that seems also to drive and regulate the alternating cycle of destruction and creation toward higher and broader levels of elaboration. In this context, when acting within a rigid or essentially a closed system, the goal seeking effort of individuals and societies to improve their capacity for independent action tends to produce disorder towards randomness and death. On the other hand, as already shown, the increasing disorder generated by the increasing mismatch of the system concept with observed reality opens or unstructures the system. As the unstructuring or, as we’ll call it, the destructive deduction unfolds, it shifts to-ward a creative induction to stop the trend toward disorder and chaos to satisfy a goal-oriented need for increased order.

Paradoxically, then, an entropy increase permits both the destruction, or unstructuring, of a closed system and the creation of a new system to nullify the march toward randomness and death. Taken together, the entropy notion associated with the Second Law of Thermodynamics and the basic goal of individuals and societies seem to work in dialectic harmony driving and regulating the destructive/creative, or deductive/inductive, action—that we have described herein as a dialectic engine. The result is a changing and expanding universe of mental concepts matched to a changing and expanding universe of observed reality.[28,27]

As indicated earlier, these mental concepts are employed as decision models by individuals and societies for determining and monitoring actions needed to cope with their environment—or to improve their capacity for independent action.

DESTRUCTION AND CREATION BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Beveridge, W.I.B, The Art of Scientific Investigation, Vin-tage Books, Third Edition (1957)

2. Boyd, John R., Destruction and Creation (23 Mar 1976)

3. Brown, G. Spencer, Laws of Form, Julian Press, Inc. (1972)

4. Conant, James Bryant, “Two Modes of Thought,” Credo Perspectives, Simon and Schuster (1970)

5. DeBono, Edward, New Think, Avon Books (1971)

6. DeBono, Edward, Lateral Thinking: Creativity Step by Step, Harper Colophon Books (1973)

7. Foster, David, The Intelligent Universe, Putnam (1975)

8. Fromm, Erich, The Crisis of Psychoanalysis, Fawcett Pre-mier Books (1971)

9. Gamow, George, Thirty Years That Shook Physics, Anchor Books (1966)

10. Gardner, Howard, The Quest for Mind, Vintage Books (1974)

11. Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas, The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, Harvard University Press (1971)

12. Godel, Kurt, “On Formally Undecidable Propositions of the Principia Mathematica and Related Systems,” pages 3-38, The Undecidable, Raven Press (1965)

13. Heilbroner, Robert L., An Inquiry into the Human Pros-pect, Norton and Co. (1974) 14. Heisenberg, Werner, Physics and Philosophy, Harper Torchbooks (1962)

15. Heisenberg, Werner, “Across the Frontiers,” World Per-spectives, Harper and Row (1974)

16. Hoyle, Fred, “Encounter with the Future”, Credo Perspec-tives, Simon and Schuster (1968)

17. Hoyle, Fred, “The New Face of Science”, Perspectives in Humanism, World Publishing Co. (1971)

18. Kramer, Edna E., “The Nature’ and Growth of Modern Mathematics”, Fawcett Premier Books (1974)

19. Kuhn, Thomas S., The Structure of Scientific Revolutions,University of Chicago Press (1970)

20. Layzer, David, ‘The Arrow of Time”, Scientific American(December 1975)

21. Levinson, Harry, The Exceptional Executive, Mentor Books (1971)

22. Maltz, Maxwell, Psycho-Cybernetics, Wilshire Book Co. (1971)

23. Nagel, Ernest and Newman, James R., Godel’s Proof,New York University Press (1958)

24. Osborne, Alex F., Applied Imagination, Scribners and Sons (1963)

25. Pearce, Joseph Chilton, The Crack in the.Cosmic Egg, Pocket Books (1975)

26. Pearce, Joseph Chilton, Exploring the Crack in the Cos-mic Egg, Pocket Books (1975)

27. Piaget, Jean, Structuralism, Harper Torchbooks (1971)

28. Polanyi, Michael, Knowing and Being, University of Chicago Press (1969)

29. Singh, Jagjit, Great Ideas of Modern Mathematics: Their Nature and Use, Dover (1959)

30. Skinner, B.F., Beyond Freedom and Dignity, Ban-tam/Vintage Books (1972)

31. Thompson, William Irwin, At the Edge of History, Harper Colophon Books (1972)

32. Thompson, William Irwin, Evil and World Order,World Perspective, Harper and Row (1976)

33. Tse-Tung, Mao, Four Essays on China and World Com-munism, Lancer Books (1972)

34. Waismann, Friedrich, Introduction to Mathematical Thinking, Harper Torchbooks (1959)

35. Watts, Alan, The Book, Vintage Books (1972)

36. Yukawa, Hideki, Creativity and Intuition, Kodansha In-ternational Ltd. (1973)

Another Source for the Above Paper:
http://pogoarchives.org/m/dni/john_boyd_compendium/destruction_and_creation.pdf

Boyd Compendium

Intro to Strategic Theories of John Boyd

Al Fin Comment: John Boyd was a fighter pilot in the USAF who served in WWII, Korea, and Vietnam. He became a military strategist and worked for many years in the Pentagon as a thorn in the side of the “privileged caste of generals.” His ideas were used in part when designing the F-15 fighter, more so in the design of the F-16 fighter, and in the design of the A-10 ground support fighter. He is best known for his O.O.D.A. Loop concept for fighter pilot dogfights in particular and for dynamic situations in general. The letters stand for “Observe” “Orient” “Decide” “Act”.

O.O.D.A. Loop Col. John Boyd USAF

As suggested by Albert Einstein, one cannot solve problems using the same level of thinking that created the problems in the first place.

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China is Invincible

Chinese People are Ambitious, Industrious, and Intelligent

Insofar as China is built upon the Chinese people, its future is solid. The Chinese people are bright, resourceful, resilient, hard-working, and above average for incremental innovation. The problem — and it is a big problem — lies with the current Chinese government. You see, the government is not the country, is not the people. And so China’s “government problem” will keep getting worse.

If China is facing a crisis, the problem is centered on the CCP government.

China’s Crisis of Government

… a persistent economic slowdown and rising tensions with the United States will likely sour the CPC’s mood during the 2021 celebrations. And the one-party regime may not even survive until 2049.

While there is technically no time limit on dictatorship, the CPC is approaching the longevity frontier for one-party regimes. Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary Party retained power for 71 years (1929-2000); the Communist Party of the Soviet Union ruled for 74 years (1917-1991); and Taiwan’s Kuomintang held on for 73 years (from 1927 to 1949 on the mainland and from 1949 to 2000 in Taiwan). The North Korean regime, a Stalinist family dynasty that has ruled for 71 years, is China’s only contemporary competition. __ https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/crisis-of-chinese-communist-party-by-minxin-pei-2019-09

Most people have trouble visualizing the fall of the communist government in China, but then most people also failed to predict the fall of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact. Successfully modeling these processes requires largely disregarding the media and most political, academic, and think tank sources. Deep knowledge is necessary, which can only come from long study and deeper thinking that is tempered by conversation with persons of depth and experience.

China Has Not Seen 6% GDP Growth in Over a Decade

It is widely known that the communist government statisticians of China do not release reliable figures. If they did, they would swiftly become organ donors.

China hasn’t seen a 6 percent growth rate for nearly a decade… Moreover, the actual size of the Chinese economy was an estimated $10.9 trillion, 18 percent lower than the officially stated $13.4 trillion, as of 2018.

President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs struck the Chinese economy when it was already declining and the effects have been devastating. __ Communist China’s Trade War

Capital flight from China is once again becoming an issue, as is a growing problem of human flight. Companies, religious practitioners, and government bureaucrats are running for the doors. Successful entrepreneurs live in fear of having their wealth confiscated and disappearing into the deep labyrinth of the CCP prison system, perhaps never to be seen again. And so they make provisions to get out — flee to Australia, Canada, the US, Singapore, wherever it seems safe and feasible to do so.

China Ain’t No Kind of Place to Raise a Kid

Toxic air, water, soil, food, medicine, baby milk, toys — toxic everything. And everything falling down around you.

China ain’t the kind of place to raise a kid
In fact, it’s black as hell
And there’s no one wise to raise them, if you did
And all the agitprop I don’t understand
It’s just my job nine days a week
A party man… A party man

Apologies to Elton John

What Food Supply?

A Sad Legacy for China’s Children

Blame China for plastics pollution in oceans

China’s government has an uncertain future. But China itself — the country, the people, the culture apart from the communist party — the country will abide the change of government. After the communists are gone, China will be faced with a massive cleanup and detoxification project before it will be fit to raise new generations of healthy children. But the people are capable if unshackled from the tyrants’ chains.

US Has Abundant Food, Energy, and Innovation

Global Stability – Instability
http://zeihan.com/the-map-room/

Meanwhile back in the US, international capital seeks a safe haven in an economically uncertain world. With a recession possibly in the wings for Europe and much of the rest of the world, the US seems one of the few relatively stable harbors to ride out the storm.

In contrast to China, the US has enough food production to feed itself and most of the rest of the world combined. US oil & gas production has slashed needs for imported energy and stabilised global oil markets — again in contrast to China.

And perhaps most importantly, innovations that take place in the US can merge seamlessly into an ocean of innovations worldwide — of both the incremental and the disruptive variety. Without the stifling regional compartmentalization, corruption, and political bulkheads and litmus tests that cripple innovation and entrepreneurship in China, economic integration and growth in the US can take place smoothly and organically.

China is Invincible

The country of China as embodied in the energy and persistence of its people, is invincible. The communist party tyranny in China, on the other hand, has a big problem — a problem of obsolete ideology and monstrous corruption.

To preserve its corrupt ideology, the party imprisons and kills large numbers of those who reside inside the putative borders of communist imperial China. The organ transplant industry in China benefits directly from this mass political and religious imprisonment system.

The people of China must begin planning for life after the party. The sooner prepared, the better. Overseas Chinese from Taiwan to Singapore to Hong Kong see the problem clearly. The backlash against the tyranny has just begun.

More: Why the communist blunder in the South China Sea gives China a black eye

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Marrying a More Beautiful Life

When contemplating marriage, most people plan on marrying a person with the same ethnic and cultural background as themselves. But a significant number of people want something more interesting, more “beautiful”, more secure, or more sexy.

When thinking about marriage outside of one’s own race, how do people of different races prioritise their choices?

Prolific statistical blogger “Audacious Epigone” looks at this question in his column on The Unz Review. Interestingly, most people — whatever their race — seem to prefer the idea of marrying within their own race. But when considering intermarriage to someone of a different race, they tend to have distinct priorities.

Female beauty as judged by men reveals a “hierarchy of beauty,” where the most beautiful women in most countries look suspiciously very much like European women. With the ideals of female beauty being what they are — perhaps in part from long exposure to Hollywood film stars — we can understand why males may have the enthusiasms shown in the graph above.

But why would females of other races feel better about “a close relative” marrying a white male in preference to males of the other alternatives outside of their race? Several different reasons. For black women, it may have something to do with financial security or a better match for their own interests, education, and ambition. For hispanic women, it may involve a desire for assimilation and social advancement. For asian women, the desire for a different type of masculinity and the quest to launch their children more deeply into the mainstream of the new more integrated world may play a part.

As for whites, they overwhelmingly prefer the idea of marrying other whites, but when thinking outside the box they tend to prefer asians or hispanics almost equally at the expense of blacks.

What About the $20 Billion Skin Lightening Cream Market?

Around the world, men and women are driving the lucrative skin-whitening cream market. As often as not the image of a thing is enough to appeal to deep and unstated preferences — if money is allowed to talk.

In 2012, India alone used 258 tons of skin-lightening cream (such creams have recently caught on with men there). In Lagos, Nigeria, one survey found that up to 77% of all residents use skin-lightening creams. Demand for such products is currently being driven by the Asia-Pacific market—led, interestingly, by Japan—but they are also popular in parts of Africa, the Middle East, the Caribbean, and Latin America. A 2009 report from Global Industry Analysts declared skin-lightening a $10 billion industry; as of last year, GIA was projecting that number would hit $23 billion by 2020. __ https://qz.com/africa/718103/skin-lightening-is-a-10-billion-industry-and-ghana-wants-nothing-to-do-with-it/

Europe Changed the World

Europeans — and nations populated largely by persons of European stock — shaped the modern world as it is. This apparent power to move mountains and build complex systems of materials and ideas, appeals to other populations who would like to have the same things.

Yes, it is a type of “cargo-cult” thinking. But that kind of thinking can drive behavior in profound ways.

And so we see that although most people seem to wish to marry within their own race, when they contemplate “marrying-out” many seem to like the idea of marrying those with the best “cargo.”

There is always an element of “magical thinking” involved in the contemplation of marriage. Sometimes, it may even work, if the magical thinking is backed up by an iron will to succeed.

More — Comparative numbers of interracial offspring:

In North America, “hispanics” and settlers of more northern European extraction have been living in close proximity for almost 200 years across the American southwest. It is no surprise that most multiracial babies in the US are of “white” and “hispanic” heritage. We are likely to see rising numbers of “white” and “asian” multiracial births over time.

The future of “white” and “black” intermarriage and multiracial births has much to do with choices made within the black community itself. When a population demonizes another population — as Palestinians demonize Jews, for example, or as growing numbers of American blacks are taught to demonize whites — the less likely we are to see the two groups making common cause for the future.

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Obama Disapproves of Trump

Opposing Visions

Trump Approval Numbers Higher Than Obama’s

It may have something to do with the economy, but Trump has higher approval numbers at this point in his first term than Obama did at the same time in his presidency.

Trump’s approval rating on Wednesday was 44.3 percent, according to a Real Clear Politics average of more than a half-dozen major polls. That is higher than Obama’s average approval rating of 43.9 percent on September 18, 2011, by the same measure. __ https://www.newsweek.com/trump-approval-rating-higher-obama-1460076

Trump Economy Shows Strength

While journalists are doing everything they can to wreck confidence and help bring about a US recession, in the real world the US economy is powering along.

The unemployment rate stayed at historically low levels of just 3.7 percent. Simultaneously, labor force participation continued to rise, reaching 63.2 percent, while average hourly earnings have increased by 3.2 percent over the last year. __ https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/462001-trumps-economic-advantage-within-the-democratic-base

In the US construction trades there is more work than workers.

“Contractors are thinking about the future and are optimistic about what’s ahead,” said Christopher Griffin, CEO of USG Corporation. “Continued levels of confidence around backlog and profit suggest nonresidential construction will continue to play an important role in overall sector growth,” he added.

The Chamber noted that the industry is running short of workers and that 61% of commercial contractors plan to hire in the next six months.

“Half of contractors report turning down jobs because of a lack of workers,” said Neil Bradley, the chamber’s executive vice president.

Recent instability in the middle east reminds informed observers why the US shale revolution is such a big deal. While oil prices rose after an Iranian military attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, the global market response was nothing like predicted by the perennial Cassandras of oilprice doom, who are about as reliable as the typical financial journalist — that is, not at all.

A booming oil & gas sector in the US helps to attract industries from Europe and other overseas areas, helping to maintain the US economic momentum.

Obama Administration Totally Corrupt

When even the FBI was utterly corrupted, you know that the leadership itself was rotten to the core.

And so with Trump out-polling Obama at an equivalent point in his presidency leading up to the elections for a second term, it seems an appropriate time to point out that Obama was supported by 95% of the press, as well as a gargantuan vote-scam effort that propelled him into a second term as president. Trump does not have such unethical advantages, but he does have a better economy going for him.

Fate of the World Rests on Trump?

For all its faults, the US is not on the same barbaric level as Communist China. China imprisons political dissenters, then rips their organs out without anesthesia to support a booming human organ transplant industry. China poisons its own people with toxic water, toxic air, toxic soil, toxic food, and toxic brainwashing. China made great gains under previous US presidents — especially Clinton, Bush II, and Obama. Only Trump has shown any sign of recognizing the global hazard of a world dominated by Communist China. Not one of his challengers in the upcoming election seems to be aware of a problem.

It will be an interesting 13 months and 2 weeks.

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Economic Freedom of the World and an Abundant Future

Nations that are economically free out-perform non-free nations in indicators of well-being

Nations in the top quartile of economic freedom had an average per-capita GDP of $36,770 in 2017, compared to $6,140 for bottom quartile nations (PPP constant US$) (exhibit 1.6).

In the top quartile, the average income of the poorest 10% was $10,646, compared to $1,503 in the bottom quartile in 2017 (exhibit 1.10). Interestingly, the average income of the poorest 10% in the most economically free nations is two-thirds higher than the average per-capita income in the least-free nations.

In the top quartile, 1.8% of the population experience extreme poverty (US$1.90 a day) compared to 27.2% in the lowest quartile (exhibit 1.11 ).

Infant mortality is 6.7 per 1,000 live births in the top quartile compared to 40.5 in the bottom quartile (exhibit 1.8).

Life expectancy is 79.4 years in the top quartile compared to 65.2 years in the bottom quartile (exhibit 1.7).

A number of other outcomes are more positive in economically free nations than in those that lack economic freedom. For example:

Political and civil liberties are considerably higher in economically free nations than in unfree nations (exhibit 1.12).

Gender equality is greater in economically free nations (exhibit 1.13).

Happiness levels are higher in economically free nations (exhibit 1.14). __ https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/economic-freedom-of-the-world-2019-annual-report

Nations of Europe and the Anglosphere Tend Toward More Economic Freedom

Europe burst ahead of the rest of the world beginning around the year 1500 AD. Ancient Greek knowledge reclaimed from Islam in the reconquista of Spain and other sources, helped trigger a surge in systematic scholarship and experimentation that brought about a new age of critical rationalism. Steve Davies of London’s Institute of Economic Affairs recently published a detailed book that examines why Europe birthed a new age of economic freedom and prosperity.

Other nations such as China and India had been very wealthy and innovative. But they had never systematised thought in science, technology, or other technical areas underlying the innovative process. Thus ancient innovations tended to be isolated, used primarily for the benefit and amusement of wealthy elites, then died out to be forgotten until accidentally reinvented.

More on Steve Davies and his book “The Wealth Explosion:”

Modernity brought fundamental changes in human life, which percolated in every aspect of society. When Reverend Thomas Malthus published his Essay on Population in 1798, the observable reality was that “all human beings, even many of the wealthy, were always living on the edge of dearth and famine.” Sure enough, Malthus “proved to be one of the worst prophets ever,” writes Davies, “given the way things have worked out from his time to our own,” but he described well the world he knew. Resource constraints made human civilization seem a rather precarious thing.

… If we now think civilization stands on firmer ground, it is precisely because innovation has unleashed unprecedented growth. In a world that keeps breaking the chains of scarcity, “a growing population is not the inevitable premise of mass starvation. But, on the contrary, hands and heads that can further contribute to creating prosperity and wealth.” Two centuries after Malthus, economist Julian Simon could label human beings themselves as “the ultimate resources.” We all know that each of us is at the same time a resource and a constraint for others, if only for elbow room. How much of a resource and how much of constraint largely depends on our circumstances. In a world of economic growth and open-ended innovation, Simon, not Malthus, proved to be right.

This is the gist of modern economic growth: something that not only provides more, but does so for more people. __ https://www.lawliberty.org/book-review/advent-of-the-modern-economy-a-panoramic-view/

Economies that are freer tend to provide more good for more people. Theories of political economy such as socialism promise to provide more value for more people, but socialism always reveals itself to be a lying and brutal overlord of impoverishment in the end.

Intelligent people tend to look beneath the claims of politicians, journalists, and academics, to the deeper context of historical experience. Socialists typically appeal to the young, naive, and unintelligent — who are easily lied to.

Most of What Was Special About Europe Can Easily Fade Away

Economic Success Correlates With National Average IQ
More at VDare

Back in 1500, the average intelligence of Europeans was high enough to provide sufficient numbers of bright scholars to take the ancient Greek knowledge — augmented by other old knowledge from the East — and ignite the most startling revolution of thought and technology the world had ever seen. As a result, the nations of Europe became wealthy and powerful, and their people began to live longer and healthier lives.

The effects of that revolution live on in the higher prosperity of Europe and the Anglosphere, and in the superiority of institutions of higher learning in the western world. While Europe and the Anglosphere continue to enjoy high average population IQ combined with freer and less corrupt institutions, they are likely to continue to ride a wave of innovation.

But these prosperous nations are not breeding new generations at a sufficient rate, and they are allowing the indiscriminate influx of immigration from low-IQ, high-violence, high-corruption nations. As a result, the very basis of their earlier prosperity is being eroded.

Books such as The Wealth Explosion help us understand some of the reasons why Europe was able to burst through “the Malthusian limit.” But what goes up can come down, if populations and policies move too far away from the bases of the original rise.

Insufficient Criticism of Bad Ideas Can Lead to Disaster

As an example of “a bad idea” that is receiving insufficient criticism, we can look at today’s “renewable energy” technologies. Big wind and big solar cannot possibly power a modern civilisation. And yet nations across the western world are squandering vast quantities of scarce resources in the futile attempt to make them work:

Wind and solar are inherently intermittent means for power generation. They only work when the wind blows or the sun shines. We need to account for the cost of batteries or the cost of conventional power as backup for wind and solar when comparing the cost of power. None of the current Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) measures account for this. Neither do standard LCOE measures account for (1) the additional cost of interconnections required, nor (2) the cost of managing networks with highly volatile energy inputs, nor (3) the efficiency losses resulting from keeping coal, gas, or nuclear power as backup. Number (3) is interesting and actually explains why the total cost of power goes up the more wind or solar you install beyond a certain point. What that certain point is depends on the country and region, but one thing is sure: Germany is beyond that point, illustrated by their high-power prices (Figure 2).

… one annual Gigafactory production of 50 GWh of Tesla batteries would be enough to provide backup for 6 minutes for the entire US power consumption. Today’s battery technology unfortunately cannot be the solution of intermittency.

… it is very worrying that young people are taught in school to fear the warming created by fossil-fuel burning. We had 1 degree of warming in the past 200 years. The “human cause” has much more to do with the heat that our existence (energy consumption) produces and releases to the biosphere rather than with CO2. The majority of warming is natural, caused by the sun as we are coming out of the Little Ice Age that ended about 300 years ago. We are not heading into a catastrophe, but we need to worry about real pollutants to our environment and the waste we create. This is where we should focus our attention and spend our resources. [ed: not on CO2]

Wind and solar – while certainly being appropriate for certain applications such as heating a pool, and thus earning a place in the energy mix – cannot and will not replace conventional power. We need a “New Energy Revolution”. To reach this New Energy Revolution we need to invest more in base research and at the same time invest in, not divest from, conventional power to make it efficient and environmentally friendly. ___ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/17/why-todays-renewables-cannot-power-modern-civilization/

It takes abysmal ignorance and gullibility to believe that a modern civilisation can run on wind and solar energy. But one of the main purposes of modern education, politics, and media is to generate a widespread and abysmal ignorance and gullibility. And such deficits in intelligence and wisdom can only spell trouble for the future unless they are reversed.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .

Posted in Economics, Europe | Tagged | 1 Comment

The Coming War of the Drones

When Iran’s leaders gave the go-ahead for an incendiary proxy drone strike against Saudi Arabian oil facilities, they turned the eyes of the world to a new reality: A coming drone war.

The Drones Are Coming!

Recently another son of the late arch-terrorist Osama bin Laden was killed in a likely drone attack. Such targeted assassinations of Islamic terrorist leaders have become so common that this recent assassination would not have been remarked upon if not for the famous name of the target’s father.

Drones have been actively employed by military and intelligence agencies for decades, but now the use of drones is expanding rapidly into the civilian world:

According to the Federal Aviation Administration, just two years ago there were around one million drones in the US. This year that number will reach two million. Globally, there are around three million drones flying today. The drone industry worldwide will be worth around $82 billion by 2025.

In the US today, there are around 122,000 commercial drone pilots who fly drones to survey farmland, take video of property for sale or inspect construction sites. In addition, there are a further 800,000 people who own drones and fly them for fun. __ James Adams

The Saturday attack by “Iran” on Saudi oil facilities reveals that the drone cat is out of the bag. And the Iranians are not exactly apologetic about their complicity in the destruction.

Almost everyone can afford a drone that is capable of spying on neighbors, or causing the crash of civilian aircraft. Clearly better ways of defending against drone attacks are needed.

UK police were lucky enough to jam a drone attack by left-wing radical extinctionists against aircraft at Heathrow Airport. But as the technology evolves, future targets may not be so lucky.

A new generation of publicly available drones is in the works that will make much of today’s jamming technology obsolete. Instead of navigating using GPS, each drone will be independent and able to use onboard sensors and maps to find its way to a pre-designated target. Drones will also be part of the 5G communications revolution and will be much harder to jam.

All this means that within a very few years, every vulnerable public building, sports stadium or city center will have to install some kind of drone defense. But because drones are developing so fast, every defensive network will have to be regularly replaced if likely targets are to be protected effectively. __ Spectator

It seems that “the safety of the commons” is being eroded on many fronts. When 19 Muslim terrorists used civilian airliners as human-piloted incendiary drones 18 years ago, they announced a new way of life for people living in the advanced world. When the WTC towers and part of the Pentagon were destroyed, the deep sleep of people living in the west was disturbed — but just a little.

Now, it may behoove residents living in the prosperous west to consider how vulnerable they are to mass death strikes in public places and places of employment. Drones can carry explosives, incendiaries, biological and chemical weapons, and anti-technology weapons (EMP etc.) that can cause even greater harm in the long term. Drones are easy to transport covertly.

Drones are Just One Class of the New Weapons

Flying weapons drones can be remotely piloted or may be controlled by autonomous software — or a combination of both. Other forms of remotely piloted robotic vehicles may come in the form of boats, torpedoes, highway vehicles, tanks, or almost any other form capable of moving while carrying a working payload of some type.

Human beings may also be drones, as we have seen in the case of suicide bombers and mass shooters. But as the shape and type of possible attack grows less and less well-defined or predictable, defending places where large numbers of people assemble — or defending bridges, highways, airliners, ferry boats, and other forms of mass transport — becomes more chancy.

More people are ordering their daily food and dry goods supplies for delivery, rather than going out to shop for them in person. More people are thinking about working from home. And there are many other ways that people are changing their habits to avoid common areas that may entail risk.

Radical Muslims are a Problem, But Left-Wing Extinctionists May Be Worse

Radical Muslims just want to make everyone else exactly like themselves — and they are willing to kill a lot of people to accomplish it. But left-wing extinctionists want to eliminate everyone else, in order to “save the earth.” Such persons can easily be found in any university, in any government bureaucracy, in any large corporate office, and especially in almost any mass media outlet.

And that is the real problem. Not the weapons themselves, but the people who are willing to use them indiscriminately to promote a bloody eliminationist ideology.

You can invest $billions in drone defense and anti-terrorist technologies and training. But as long as the underlying ideologies that promote mass killing, genocide, and human extinction are being taught to your children in universities, are being blared from almost every news & entertainment media outlet, and are being covertly promoted across multiple government and corporate bureaucracies, you can never do enough to defend yourself and the future.

More: The Drone as a Black Swan

Small hobby drones may only carry 3 KG (roughly 6 pounds), but how much damage can 3 KG of high explosives cause? The answer is “considerable” if the target is flammable, or lightly shielded electronics.

Larger commercially available drones can carry up to 20 KG or 40 pounds–more than enough explosive capacity to take out any number of targets.

Put yourself in the shoes of those tasked with securing hundreds of miles of pipelines carrying oil and natural gas around the world. What’s your defense against drone attacks? A.I.-controlled or remote-operated gun towers every few hundred yards, along thousands of miles of pipelines? Human patrols covering the entire pipeline 24/7? The cost of such defenses would burden the defenders with enormous costs without providing 100% reliable security. __ https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-black-swan-is-drone.html

Chinese drone weapons heating up middle east battle space

Killer robots

More dangers from autonomous weapons

The dark side of our drone future

Posted in drones, Technology, Weapons | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Iran Proxy Bombs Saudi Oil Facilities: Start of Peter Zeihan’s Oil War?

Update 17Sep2019: Latest reports suggest that Iran launched more than 20 drones and cruise missiles from southern Iran in the attack on Saudi Arabia.

Coordinated drone strikes on the heart of the Saudi oil industry forced the kingdom to shut down half its crude production on Saturday, people familiar with the matter said, potentially roiling petroleum prices and demonstrating the power of Iran’s proxies. __ Wall Street Journal


In The Absent Superpower geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan predicts a war between ancient rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. In what may become known as the first strike in the Great Gulf Oil War, Iranian proxy fighters used explosive and incendiary drone attacks to take out half of Saudi oil production today.

Drones attacked Abqaiq facility in Saudi Arabia and the Khurais oil field run by Saudi Aramco early Saturday morning, the kingdom’s interior ministry said, sparking a massive fire at a crude processing plant essential to global oil supplies.

The closure will impact nearly 5 million barrels of crude processing per day, affecting 5 percent of the world’s daily oil production. And while Aramco is confident that it can recover quickly, if it can’t, however, the world could face a production shortage of as much 150MM barrels per month. An outcome which could send oil prices into the triple digits. __ Oilprice

Shia Iran has been touting its evolving drone capability for years now, and may feel ready to take the ancient rivalry with Sunni Saudi Arabia to a new level of hot conflict. By using proxies such as Yemeni Houthi rebels, Iran may feel somewhat protected from direct retaliation to its own oil facilities. And perhaps the question of the Iranian nuclear bomb may further slow a Saudi attack in response to the Iranian provocation. Further, back-channel diplomatic chatter from Iran allies China and Russia may further discourage the Saudis from escalating what seems to be an Iran on Saudi proxy war.

In one of Zeihan’s most recent public talks, the geopolitical analyst discusses a number of looming global conflicts, including the coming war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

A hot war between Iran and Saudi Arabia would reduce global oil production by almost one third, immediately raising oil prices and shifting global strategic balances. Russia would immediately benefit from higher oil prices, and might be tempted to start another border war — this time in the Baltics. Peter Zeihan has a lot to say about that possibility in The Absent Superpower.

Nations that are highly dependent upon Persian Gulf oil would begin to suffer energy shortages fairly soon after escalation of hostilities. Nations of south and east Asia in particular would show signs of distress from oil shortages.

Saudis Plan to Restore Production Within 3 Days

Publicly, the Saudis are brushing off this Iranian proxy attack as a mere nuisance, but what will they say after the next attack? What happens when the Iranian inspired damage takes down Saudi oil production for longer periods of time? That will depend upon the US response, if any. Iran is backed by China and Russia, whereas Saudi Arabia is not certain of its true allies. So the Saudis must step carefully until certain matters are clarified with the global superpower. But if the Iranians push their proxies much further, the keepers of Mecca may feel compelled to meet fire with fire.

Everything is Connected

The US is not nearly so dependent upon Persian Gulf oil as are China and Japan, but the US does have a stake in the stability of the middle east.

President Trump called Saudi Arabia’s day-to-day ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, on Saturday and said the U.S. was ready to “cooperate with the kingdom in supporting its security and stability,” according to the Saudi Press Agency, the official news service.

Prince Mohammed told Mr. Trump that Saudi Arabia “is willing and able to confront and deal with this terrorist aggression,” according to the agency.

The attacks happened a few days before world leaders are set to gather in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, where President Trump has said he is interested in meeting Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to defuse tensions. __ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/saudi-arabia-shuts-down-about-half-its-oil-output-after-drone-strikes/ar-AAHh2yx?

The Iranians seem to be pretending that nothing has happened, keeping relatively quiet over the drone attacks. But that silence is a loud statement in itself. Time will tell whether this attack was a warning from Tehran to Riyadh, or whether it is an opening salvo in a new war.

The video above provides a quick summary of Zeihan’s geopolitical analysis. The Absent Superpower provides a lot more detail on the multiple wars predicted by Zeihan over the next ten to fifteen years.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood ©

More details on Iran’s attack.

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Is-A-Full-Blown-War-In-The-Persian-Gulf-Inevitable.html

Possible responses by US

Posted in geopolitics, Islam's Bloody Borders, Peter Zeihan | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Why Are Black Males Stigmatized as Violent Criminals?


Normalized Violent Crime Rates US 2012 By Race (Hispanics Lumped Together with “Whites”)
https://infogram.com/us-crime-in-black-and-white-1gzxop49q0okmwy

The reality is that for some violent crimes such as homicide, black males are the majority of perpetrators. For other violent crimes, black males are greatly over-represented as perpetrators for their overall numbers in the population.

Between 1976 and 2005 blacks com­mitted more than half of all murders in the United States. The black arrest rate for most offenses — including robbery, aggravated assault and property crimes — is still typically two to three times their representation in the population. Blacks as a group are also overrepresented among persons arrested for so-called white-collar crimes such as counterfeiting, fraud and embezzlement. And blaming this decades-long, well-documented trend on racist cops, prosecutors, judges, sentencing guidelines and drug laws doesn’t cut it as a plausible explanation. __ https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jul/21/family-secret-what-the-left-wont-tell-you-about-bl/

Looking at the overall US incarcerated populations, we see black males again over-represented compared with their numbers in the general population. Hispanics are also over-represented compared with their numbers. And in 2015 in the US, black male prisoners represented a plurality of inmates.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) in 2013 black males accounted for 37% of the total male prison population, white males 32%, and Hispanic males 22%. __ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States

In New York City, most deadly crime takes place in minority neighborhoods. So it is no surprise that minorities make up the vast majority of both victims and perpetrators. The same is true in most US cities, where blacks and hispanics make up the majority of both victims and perpetrators of deadly crimes.

Police Are Killed by Black Males 18.5 Times More than the Reverse

Crime statistics tell us that in the supposed war between black males and police, it is the police who are being victimized.

Contrary to the Black Lives Matter narrative, the police have much more to fear from black males than black males have to fear from the police. In 2015, a police officer was 18.5 times more likely to be killed by a black male than an unarmed black male was to be killed by a police officer.

This is the opposite of the story told by “kneeling athletes” grandstanding on the sidelines instead of performing on the fields, where they are paid to play. This is similar to the political grandstanding by Hollywood actors, who likewise never seem to check their facts before they spout off. 😉

Black Males are Often Perceived as Violent Criminals

This is probably because black males are seen out of proportion to their general population numbers in:

  • Arrest statistics
  • Victimisation Surveys
  • Incarceration Rates

More

Because these different metrics consistently show black males as punching above their weight class as perpetrators of violent (and other) crimes, the weight of the evidence points toward black males as actually committing more crimes than their population numbers would suggest.

What About the Global Homicide Picture?

Within nations populated by sub Saharan blacks, homicide rates tend to be relatively high. This is true for sub Saharan Africa and for Caribbean nations. Homicide rates also tend to be higher for cities with higher proportions of people of sub Saharan black ancestry.

Correlation Coefficients for Homicide Rates with Race in US Cities 500K +
http://www.unz.com/article/race-and-crime-in-america/

Note that the correlations seen in the graph above are only suggestive. They must be backed up by arrest rates, victimisation surveys, incarceration rates, and other crime statistics that are more rigorous than simple correlations.

Even so, correlations between crime rates and specific neighborhoods within cities should make a person consider closely, when choosing a location to live:

It is very likely that one would see a large number of visual correlations between general conditions on the street, and violent crime rates for different neighborhoods — even in broad daylight on relatively peaceful days.

Most Black Males are Not Criminals

It would be a terrible mistake of judgment to view most of the black males you may see as criminals. And yet, given what is published with regard to violent crimes in the US, one might be forgiven for mistakenly believing that most criminals are black males — even though that is not the case. It is simply that black males commit crimes at a significantly higher rate than other populations in the US. In addition, the fact that black males represent a plurality of prisoners who are incarcerated in the US may add conviction to the false belief that black males are a majority of criminals in the US, on the part of many.

Finally, when local TV news shows provide mug shots for perpetrators of daily shootings or home invasions, for most cities in the US the perpetrators tend to be overwhelmingly black males. This provides visual reinforcement to the idea that criminality is far more common among male blacks.

Violence and Genes

A number of gene alleles have been associated with violent behavior, including the MAO 2 repeat allele. In the case of the low repeat Monoamine Oxidase allele, a rational connection can be made between the allele and “erratic behavior.” Too much of the monoamine neurotransmitters within the synaptic spaces logically can destabilize behavior.

Despite the small sample size, the results were significant (odds ratio = 12.89, p < 0.05) because those with the allele had a fifty-percent chance of shooting or stabbing someone. For African-American men without this allele, the risk was only seven percent. Those with MAOA-2R were also more likely to have victimized multiple people based on their greater likelihood of admitting stabbing or shooting during multiple “waves” of study follow-up.

… MAOA-2R is so much more common in African Americans than whites and Asians __ http://theunsilencedscience.blogspot.com/2013/12/dr-kevin-beaver-apostle.html

Most academics will not do this kind of research, out of fear of being labeled “racist” or “white supremacist.” Nevertheless, this is precisely the type of research needed in order to clarify the reasons for the apparent correlation between large proportions of black males and high levels of violent crime.

It is best to always be aware of one’s surroundings, and to be prepared for the most likely scenarios that you may confront. Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .

Posted in Blacks and crime | Tagged | Leave a comment

Global Economy Unsettling, Shifting Slowly

For decades, the global economy was growing on the backs of the BRICs — China, India, Russia, Brazil, etc. China, in particular, boosted the economies of raw material exporters around the world. High tech exporters such as Germany have also benefited from China’s industrial and technological rise.

But Russia and Brazil suffered when global oil prices fell 5 years ago, and China is showing multiple signs of slowing. If things continue this way, where can the world look for growth stimulus?

China’s Imports Crashing

China’s imports have been worse than sluggish. A drop in imports means that domestic consumption is set to drop and that value added exports are also set to decrease.

Exports out of China have been trending downward over most of 2019. Combined with a stronger drop in imports, the impression one gets is of an accelerating decline in exports and industrial activity in China for the near term.

China is Unsettling

China’s political mechanisms are particularly ham-handed when it comes to popular discontent. Even inside the prison bars of mainland China, astute observers can read troubling signs in the tea leaves. Massive Hong Kong protests cannot help but affect political sentiments in Taiwan and the rest of the overseas Chinese community.

There are hints of divisions in the Chinese leadership and stirrings of discontent about Mr. Xi’s policies….

The tumult in Hong Kong could pose a risk to Mr. Xi, especially if it exacerbates discontent and discord within the Chinese leadership over other issues.

“I think the danger is not that his standing will collapse, but that there is a whole series of slowly unfolding trends that will gradually corrode his position,” said Richard McGregor, a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney and author of “Xi Jinping: The Backlash.”

“Hong Kong is one, as the protests look set to carry on despite the concessions,” Mr. McGregor said. “The trade war is adding to the pain,” he added, referring to the current standoff with the United States.
___ NYT quoted in AT

And the global economy is beginning to shift slowly away from an overdependence on an unpredictable China. The trade war between the US and China continues to heat up in the midst of the ongoing protests in Hong Kong and the drop in industrial activity and exports in China. The long-term but accelerating movement of manufacturers and supply chains away from China to other nations suggests more enduring changes.

China is in a more difficult position. Attitudes against it are polarising. Trump picked his moment to declare a trade war – just a time when poorly managed debt diplomacy was exposing the inequity of China’s plans to create its own global trade ecosystem. The fact China is now perceived as a global power makes it easier for the US to contain them – it’s not some poor third world nation they are looking to corral! The next few years will be as much about how China is increasingly contained, as about slowing growth. What the US really wants now is a Great Wall of China to keep them in as trade war morphs to cold-war.

China isn’t going to suffer … economic collapse on US tariffs, but it is sub-optimal and likely to push China growth lower earlier than the party strategists hoped, reducing the likelihood the nation can get rich before it gets old. The implications of a slowing China will be felt across whole globe. If China isn’t growing 6%, then that’s going to slow global growth. It will be felt most obviously in nations like Australia and other primary suppliers, but also elsewhere. ___ Bill Blain via ZH

As China slows, other economies that had depended upon China for their own economic growth will also slow. Watch Australia and Europe closely for signs of China overdependence.

Meanwhile US Jobs Market Continues to Grow

As the US approaches “full employment” we can expect the number of new jobs to slowly taper off. The unemployment rate appears stuck at a very low 3.7%, but one should always keep an eye on business investment and worker participation.

The U.S. job creation machine is still working – 130,000 more jobs last month.

The rate of growth is slowing but overall there’s still strong jobs growth.

The likely reason for the slowing growth is that there just aren’t that many people to employ out there. __
Tim Worstall

US President Trump created improved conditions for business in the US by reducing crippling regulations and taxes. There is much more room for improvement, and as long as Mr. Trump is president of the US it is likely that more deregulation and tax reform will continue to come from the White House. The more constitutionally oriented federal judges being appointed by Trump should also bolster the rule of law in the US, one very important foundation for business stability. More

Corrupt Global Politicians Too Easily Bought by China

We expect politicians in the third world to be corrupt and easily bought — and they are. But when we see politicians in Europe, Australia, and the US [J. Biden] also being influenced by the flow of Chinese investments and other funds, it seems clear that China has become a global engine of corruption. Given that China’s prosperity came from western foreign investment, western technology transfer, and western banking and trade concessions to China, it is clear that it is up to anyone in the west who can still make a difference to do so. This seems to be at least part of what Mr. Trump is trying to do — slow and mitigate the rot and decline of the west.

It is too early to tell how things will turn out, but China is more brittle than it appears to most international observers.

China can make its successful billionaires disappear, and transfer their wealth to party insiders. More

90% of China’s ultra-wealthy are related to top party officials, and the ones who are not… well, they often disappear if they are unwilling to “gift” most of their wealth to those who are closely related. And their wealth is transferred anyway. These corrupt shenanigans help to fuel much of the capital flight out of China (through Hong Kong channels).

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. There are many different ways to make provisions for difficult situations and tighter times. One way is to set aside funds and materials. Another way is to develop skills that will help see you through. Give it some thought.

It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .

Meanwhile, sad tales from China’s languishing African colonies continue

The decline of China can be dated to 2012, when Xi Jinping came to power. Both China’s Xi and Russia’s Putin reinforced each other’s megalomania, much like Hitler and Tojo in the 1930s.

Posted in China, Economics | Tagged | 1 Comment

Can Anyone Liberate Hong Kong from King Kong?


Such images from Hong Kong must seem very curious to mainlander Chinese, who have been programmed to submit to every abuse imaginable from their murderous communist party overlords. This is the sort of thing that is carefully censored from the media diet of the party slaves, but digital images can easily find their way to almost anywhere these days.

Thousands of protesters earlier sang the Star Spangled Banner and called on U.S. President Donald Trump to “liberate” the city. They waved the Stars and Stripes and placards demanding democracy.

“Fight for freedom, stand with Hong Kong,” they shouted before handing over petitions at the U.S. Consulate. “Resist Beijing, liberate Hong Kong.”

__ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests/hong-kong-police-fire-tear-gas-as-clashes-erupt-after-thousands-appeal-to-trump-idUSKCN1VT012

They are only words and images. But they are based upon real life experiences for many students and travelers, and they are similar in many ways to the words, images, and experiences that triggered and sustained the 1989 mass protests and liberations across central and eastern Europe.

What About “Decoupling?”

There is a good deal of discussion about decoupling the US economy from China. As more US corporations move manufacturing facilities out of China to countries such as Mexico, Canada, and Vietnam, the idea of decoupling the US economy from China is becoming more a reality. China has been unwilling to play by international trade rules, so if it must suffer this economic catastrophe it can only blame itself.

But decoupling Hong Kong from King Kong China is another matter. Hong Kong grew wealthy as a trading nexus between China and the outside world. Hong Kong’s very identity and raison d’etre depend upon “coupling” with China. The conflict seems to arise in determining what sort of coupling will evolve as the future unfolds.

A small minority in Hong Kong seem to wish closer political and economic connections with the Anglosphere. As the 51st US state, for example, Hong Kong would draw the US closer to Asia. Perhaps the US would then build a chain of artificial islands across the South China Sea to assure the future security of the US state of Hong Kong? Shenzhen may even want to join the new political entity. Not very likely, but even to have such thoughts enter the minds of more than a few Chinese must be giving the communist overlords of death acid stomachs.

Whether Hong Kong is to maintain its coupling with China as an autonomous political entity, as the 51st US state, or as a province of Taiwan, its economic role for China would still be irreplaceable. Any dreams and fantasies Beijing may have of replacing Hong Kong with Shanghai or Shenzhen are only that — fantasies. And weak fantasies at that. The international world does not trust China, and in finance and economics trust is everything. That is why Hong Kong needs to maintain separation from China — to maintain trust, trade, and a strong flow of funds and goods.

Under Xi, China has evolved into a monster. Many mainland Chinese people seem to be comforted by this idea of monstrousness, believing that it conveys some form of protection. But behaving in a monstrous manner can also paint a target of vulnerability on the monster’s back, for all its neighbors and all nations of the world to see.

Hong Kong is stuck with King Kong for now. But the exact manner of coupling between them is still up in the air.

The protests are an embarrassment to China’s ruling Communist Party ahead of the Oct. 1 celebration of its 70th anniversary in power. __ https://apnews.com/3e1249a0f7724747a8d3cea27728811c

Posted in China | Tagged | 1 Comment

How Can You Tell When China Breaks?

First Understand the Role of Real Estate Prices in China

… about 80% of Chinese people’s wealth is in the form of real estate, totaling over $65 trillion in value — almost twice the size of all G-7 economies combined. A significant slowdown could, therefore, have a substantial impact on citizens’ financial health.

To him, Chinese people have “played around with leverage, debts, and finance, and eventually created a mirage in a desert that will soon entirely collapse.”

In December, [Ren Min University Professor] Xiang challenged the government’s official economic growth estimate of 6.6%, saying it was actually just 1.67% — or possibly even negative — in 2018. He then went on to warn of a potential crash in the property market.

__ https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cover-Story/China-s-housing-glut-casts-pall-over-the-economy

In China, real estate prices drive the economy.

Real estate plays a key role in China’s economy.

Land sales have provided significant funding for provincial government budgets. Around 85% of budgeted spending is done through local governments. Home construction has delivered millions of jobs to working-class Chinese, the kind that are not walking up and down Ivy League campuses here in the U.S. or on spendthrift vacations in Paris.

Property also provides significant collateral, securing much of the debt issued by the country’s banks and even by some publicly traded companies that are heavily invested in land and real estate.

More importantly, real estate is the Chinese savings account. Most middle-class Chinese have at least one house, as opposed to renting. Upper-income earners have two or more houses, made all the more easy to acquire by generations of single-child households and rising wages translating into few children to spend money on.

Chinese savers cannot invest overseas easily due to the barriers of a closed capital account. Stuck at home, they gamble in the stock market and put their serious money in real estate.

___ https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/08/06/two-things-drive-chinas-economy-one-is-in-trouble/#105501e65ca7

But what happens when Chinese workers are no longer in a position to help fuel the real estate bubble and bread machine? Chinese manufacturing and exports are hurting. Foreign corporations — and many Chinese companies — are finding it necessary to move production away from mainland China. Part of the exodus of employers is caused by rising costs of Chinese labor. Another part of the problem is that the US government has finally gotten wise to Chinese theft and piracy — and China’s grossly unfair trade policies toward foreign businesses.

If the Chinese property bubble bursts, a cascade of unfortunate events for China’s economy will surely follow. China’s property developers are far out on the debt limb and crawling further out every day. Consider the China Evergrande Group, China’s third largest developer:

Evergrande is now in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Shares are down 36% this year, the worst performer among Chinese developers listed in Hong Kong. Its bonds are falling, too, as a 45% fall in profit in the first six months of 2019 has markets worried about its $114 billion of debt. That is debt greater than the annual gross domestic product of Ecuador.

But this is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. If growth drops below the 6.2% second-quarter rate, Beijing has a choice: continue tightening the vice on homebuilders to deleverage the economy, as Xi pledged in 2013, or support the market.

Under Xi, China has not shown great tolerance for headline-grabbing defaults. Yet letting reckless borrowers miss bond payments — or fail altogether — is part of any economy’s maturation process, particularly considering that China is the world’s second-largest financial power.

Granted, Trump’s trade war is a challenge Xi’s party hardly needs. __ https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Chinese-property-sector-s-troubles-highlight-debt-laden-economy

China’s export and manufacturing sectors are also critical pillars in China’s economic future. They are showing recent problems as well:

The outlook for China’s manufacturing sector deteriorated further in August, underlining the weakness in the domestic economy just as a new round of tariffs kicks in.

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index dropped to 49.5, according to data released Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics, with sub-gauges showing that domestic and new overseas orders contracted. On Sunday, higher U.S. tariffs on roughly $110 billion in Chinese imports took effect, as did Beijing’s retaliatory duties on U.S. goods coming the other way.

U.S President Donald Trump’s tariff war continues to heap pressure on China’s economy and policy makers at a time when economic output already is in a long-term deceleration.

… The Trump administration imposed additional 15% duties on consumer goods ranging from footwear and apparel to home textiles and certain technology products like the Apple Watch. A separate batch of about $160 billion in Chinese goods — including laptops and cellphones — will be hit with 15% tariffs on Dec. 15.

That’s pushing many American companies to move manufacturing out of China to avoid being affected. __ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-manufacturing-sector-keeps-getting-210000532.html

Over the last few decades, manufacturers in China have developed a very good set of supply lines for product fabrication and assembly. Moving to another country will be difficult if they do not make proper preparations. But the longer they wait, the more likely these reluctant companies will share in China’s woes when the house of cards begins to collapse.

A large part of China’s economic growth is built on real estate and related infrastructure spending. Where is the danger, and how can you tell when things begin falling apart?

Functional vs. Dysfunctional Infrastructure Spending

China became wealthy recently based upon the foreign direct investment of overseas manufacturers, a massive transfer of technology from foreigners to China, and the booming export economy that resulted. But after the global deleveraging of 2007-2009, exports began to slow along with foreign investment, and China had to resort to other means for maintaining economic growth and a sufficient rate of employment to prevent a popular uprising.

The CCP government turned to massive stimulus and a huge infrastructure bubble began to take form. As a relatively primitive and developing nation, China needed a lot of infrastructure. But without a significant economic and political “opening,” China’s shiny new infrastructure amounts more to Potemkin window dressing. China has taken the route of the “broken window fallacy” to create the appearance of economic growth.

China is a “closed society,” a top-down command society where independent entrepreneurship is not tolerated outside of certain boundaries and tight connections to communist party officials. 90% of Chinese millionaires are closely related to top party functionaries, and if the ties of connection were more closely traced the number would be even higher. Wealth is concentrated in the corrupt hands of a few, rather than being reinvested broadly across Chinese society.

When expensive infrastructure of dubious quality is tossed into an authoritarian system on the command of government officials for purposes of “creating growth,” the society does not benefit to a significant degree. That is not how a healthy organically growing economy works.

We have seen huge “ghost cities” built across China — cities that are doomed to break down and collapse decades earlier than should have been the case. We see massive and hugely wasteful investment in solar and wind developments, much of which will never be connected to the electrical grid — the main purpose of their construction only to act as an economic stimulus and a propaganda point in the global game of political influence.

The exporting of China’s dysfunctional infrastructure overproduction is clearly seen in the Belt and Road initiative, which has made a lot of corrupt officials in Africa and other primitive areas wealthy, but has the ultimate effect of casting the people of those primitive places deeply into debt to China — and forcing them to hand over valuable collateral of land and resources to their new overlord China.

Interesting perspective on China infrastructure investment

Desperately seeking financing

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/china-needs-money-evidence-in-desperate-fdi-actions-not-words-qX0fZw6p3USci72wOmfy6Q/

 

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Between 25% and 50% of Colleges Will Fail in Next 20 Years

Michael Horn is an expert on education who predicts that 25% of US colleges will fail within the next 20 years. Personally I think the number will be closer to 50%, if you include mergers as a failure of individual institutions.

Part of the problem is the student loan debacle, with $1.5 trillion in college debt — much of it never to be repaid — which weighs heavily on the US economy. But at the heart of the coming mass death of colleges is the inescapable fact that universities have rejected their core purpose. Drifting intentionally into a corrupt swamp of purposeless power grabs, universities and colleges are signing their own death warrants.

In their zeal to promote progressive causes like ethnic diversity, faculty members and administrators have abandoned the very purpose of a university education.

According to Kronman, our colleges are built on an ancient foundation: the philosopher Socrates’ concept of learning through debate. That’s “the conversational ideal,” as Kronman calls it — the hallmark of college as “a community devoted to collaborative pursuit of the truth.”

___ https://nypost.com/2019/08/31/how-college-students-today-go-against-everything-universities-stand-for/

Today’s liberal arts and humanities students and professors reject the idea of open debate. Closed minded indoctrination and brainwashing in “correct thought” have taken its place. Instead of teaching students how to think and learn for themselves, they are being turned into predictable and conformist reflectors of the platitudes du jour.

Alternatives to a 4 year college education can lead to better pay and a more satisfying experience, but most young people are not provided with the information they need to make informed decisions. The “college for everyone” dogma has taken over the zeitgeist to a highly dysfunctional degree.

The concept of “apprenticeships” is both old and poorly defined. The future will require new forms of apprenticeship that have not been imagined, but current generations of thinkers and policymakers do not seem up to the challenge.

We also have a false dichotomy between “working with one’s mind” and “working with one’s hands.” To be successful outside of white collar occupations such as law, accounting, banking etc. one must be able to work with hands and mind. The future of vocational training will lead to a wonderland of future skills and on-the-fly innovations that our dumbed-down high school career counselors will never comprehend. And so they shortchange at least 75% of the students they counsel.

The merging of information technology and vocational skills will define a new future for most workers — who really never belonged in a rigorous 4 year university training program to begin with. But we have stupidly forced square pegs into round holes, ending up with twice as many colleges and universities than we need while generating $trillions in wasted debt — and misleading millions of young people into failed, worthless, and unsatisfying career paths.

It is a disaster of our own making, even if we never intended it to be this way.

While This is Still an Opportunity Society

Training everyone to be an entrepreneur who has the aptitude, is another vast improvement we could make over the current system of academic lobotomy. Entrepreneurs create entire new fields and markets, generating jobs for those who want a more predictable life. Except there is no such thing as a predictable life anymore, but don’t tell them that unless you are prepared to unfold the vast spread of possible future lives for them. Eventually perhaps we can do that for most young people.

Thinking of the military as a skills and attitude building platform is another change we might make. In countries where national service is mandatory, such a thing is taken for granted. But in societies where everything is voluntary, we must be sure not to overlook all the possibilities when revealing the future possibilities to our young — who after all must build their own lives for the most part.

Military training can build many skills of self-knowledge, skills of a hands-on practical nature, and leadership skills. One does not need to make a career of the military for the military to contribute to one’s career.

And then there are the “dirty jobs.” This is a short list of some dirty jobs. Mike Rowe highlighted a lot more dirty jobs in his TV series. More

It is not that easy to find one’s perfect niche — or niches. Going to college is just as likely to take a person farther away from self-discovery as to help him find what he is looking for.

There are many reasons why almost half of today’s colleges are doomed to fail. It is not just that Europeans and Anglosphereans are not having as many children as they used to. It is not just that college is unsuited for at least half of the kids who are shunted into them. It is not just that universities have become vast concentration camps for mindwashing and conformist indoctrination. And it is not that today’s colleges are overpriced generators of dysfunctional debt. Most colleges have simply outlived their usefulness and have been bypassed by the real world while administrators were locked in a vault counting their endowments and dreaming of a brave new political world of echo choir singers.

The real world is busy forming a future that has very little to do with the thoughts of today’s university administrators and brain dead activist professors. To be able to see that world one must forget the indoctrination he has received from his “education,” from the media, from politicians, and from virtually all other cultural institutions that have been so busy trying to limit the future to a mockingly limited parody of what it should be.

Pay attention. Hope for the best, prepare for anything. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

An interesting and related concept

Posted in careers, Education, University | Tagged | 5 Comments

Czech Republic Spreads Her Legs, China Can’t Get It Up

China badly wants to take the Czech Republic, and the Czech Republic wants to be taken. So what’s the problem?

Czech President Milos Zeman has met with Chinese President Xi Jinping eight times — an unusual amount of face time for the leader of 10 million people.

Zeman has welcomed Chinese investment and tried to position his country as China’s portal to Europe. He even appointed a Chinese business tycoon, Ye Jianming, as an economic adviser. Ye, the chairman of energy company CEFC China, proceeded to buy stakes in a Prague soccer team, a brewery, an airline, a media company and an investment bank.

Meanwhile, China hired former Czech ministers and other retired politicians to press its case in Prague.

“They’re [Czech elites are] trying to rearrange the political arrangements to be more conducive to Chinese interests,” said Martin Hala, director of Sinopsis, a group that studies Chinese influence in Central Europe. “Some systems are more resilient than others.” __ WaPo

But recently China has been proving reluctant to consummate the relationship. What could possibly be wrong? No money, no honey? In an economic squeeze, even a high-rolling “John” like China has to become more selective.

China Debt is Over the Tipping Point

China economist Michael Pettis has been warning about treacherous levels of Chinese debt for several years now. And other observers are starting to notice the problem

“China is very much past the tipping point where the debt simply no longer can be ignored. The cost of servicing the debt … simply distracts from almost everything else,” said Howie.

China’s total debt — corporate, household and government — rose to over 300% of its GDP in the first quarter of 2019, slightly up from the same period a year earlier, according to a report by the Institute of International Finance.

“China … (had) this huge stimulus and turn on the credit taps and they drove all this global demand,” Howie said. “But there clearly was going to be a cost … and now they are suffering (from) it.”

China’s debt levels rapidly shot up a few years ago as its banks extended record amounts of credit to drive growth, which led to the Asian giant undertaking deleveraging efforts, or the process of reducing debt.

But the trade war has put a dent in its efforts to pare its massive debt as Beijing sought ways to boost its slowing economy, which was at its lowest growth in 27 years. Earlier this year, banks started to increase its lending again, with new loans surging to a record high. __ https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/chinas-debt-levels-amid-its-slowing-economy.html?

China simply cannot learn its lesson. The Communist Party of China is too fixated on global domination to the point that it is unable to stop — even to remove a poisoned splinter from its rapidly swelling foot.

Donald Trump seems to be the first US president to notice the threat from Communist China. He is limited in what he can do on his own, but he seems willing to swing his big stick in unpredictable fashion to keep Beijing guessing. His unconventional tactics are having an effect on the Chinese economy, where capital flight is once again taking wings.

Meanwhile in Hong Kong

Hong Kong protests often feature millions of protestors at a time, something rarely seen elsewhere in the world. Beijing would be nervous even with just a fraction of that number turning out in the streets — but millions? Antiperspirant deodorant must be selling off the shelves in Beijing’s exclusive convenience marts. Especially since so much of the wealth of China’s elites is moved in and out through Hong Kong channels.

Hong Kong is irreplaceable to China. If China destroys international trust in the integrity of Hong Kong, then a huge arterial of wealth will dry up for China and a large number of other global players. It will not be Shanghai or Shenzhen that picks up the lucrative remains, but rather Singapore. The CCP leadership is aware of the problem.

This is not a problem that the Communist Chinese want to deal with at this particular time, but there it is. One of the world’s most prestigious financial capitals clearly wants to keep its distance from Beijing. It is almost as if Hong Kong is afraid of catching a sexually transmitted disease from the dirty commies.

People around the world are watching. Perhaps even people in the Czech Republic?

Belt and Road projects are being canceled in Africa and across Asia. Beijing’s debt-slave diplomacy flagship is not being received as favorably as previously — especially in democratic nations where a new set of leaders revokes China deals made by previous corrupt leadership. Democracy — what a nuisance for aspiring global hegemons!

Meanwhile: This is what happens when you tell the truth inside China…

https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-businessman-arrested-and-loses-assets-after-exposing-past-atrocities-committed-by-chinas-red-army_3053862.html

Tiananmen Square is a much smaller place than Hong Kong… with much less economic significance. The CCP risks letting things get out of control if they overstep.

Beijing is manufacturing the circumstances to justify brutal intervention in Hong Kong

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/09/02/chinas-hong-kong-dilemma

China trade war: better now than later

The Geopolitical Logic of the US-China Trade War

China has a lot more to worry about:

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/how-long-will-chinas-soaring-growth-last

China is now an unpredictable hybrid monster, budding off a motley mess of progeny that threaten the survival of the parent monster. Chaos ensues.

Posted in China, Europe | Tagged | 6 Comments

Show Me the Money!

Note: Estimates below are from 2015.

For purists, who believe “money” refers only to physical “narrow money” (bank notes, coins, and money deposited in savings or checking accounts), the total is somewhere around $36.8 trillion. If you’re looking at “broad money,” which isn’t just physical money and includes any money held in easily accessible accounts, the number is about $90.4 trillion.

… __ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-much-money-exists-in-the-entire-world-in-one-chart-2015-12-18

World real estate is worth around $220 trillion and the world’s stock markets are valued around $75 trillion.

Nominal “investment” in derivatives can be valued above $1 quadrillion, and we recently learned that the belt and inner system asteroids can be valued in the $hundreds of quadrillions quintillions. A graphic look at terrestrial “money” is given below:

US GDP is around $20 trillion, and predicted to double to $40 trillion in ten years according to a number of banks and banking organisations. Chinese GDP is around $12 trillion, predicted to more than quadruple by 2030 according to the same banks and banking groups. A lot can happen in ten years to such predictions, which are easy enough to make but rarely prove true as predicted.

Meanwhile, global investment is flowing to the US which is raising the relative value of the dollar, putting pressure on the US Federal Reserve Bank to ease interest rates.

Chinese markets are in turmoil, as the global trade war is making Chinese Communist Party leaders see a recession in their future unless things change.

The entirety of global money and financial markets is too complex for any person or group of persons to comprehend in detail. Any conceivable superhuman artificial intelligence would be challenged by the global financial and economic systems today. But it is a topic worth considering, and worth reading about. You may discover that your intuition on the subject can provide some useful insights.

A good place to start reading is with the history of money, trade, and debt. Start simple and add more complex ideas gradually. The world of Star Trek was a world without money, but we are likely a long way yet from such a world.

Video playlist with some interesting videos on the history of money:

Note: The infographic at the top is an updated version of a previously published infographic of “all the money in the world.” It helps to provide a sense of perspective when balancing your checkbook. Remember that several named asteroids in our solar system are “valued” in the $quintillions, thousands of times more than the value of all derivatives and millions of times more than the largest government budgets or debts.

The image below provides many of the same comparisons in an inverted pyramid:

Posted in Economics | Tagged | 1 Comment

Murder is Multicultural: Diversity of Crime


The table below ranks homicide rates by nation, helping to reveal the diversity of murder. The map above displays murder rates of nations graphically by color strata, with a red circle that reveals homicide rates for the most populous city within the particular country.

It is immediately apparent that the highest murder rates in the world occur in source countries for primary migrating populations to North America, Europe, and the UK. This should disturb anyone who hopes for a peaceful future for Europe and the Anglosphere.

Country
Homicide count
Homicide rate per 100,000 population
Honduras
7104
91.6
El Salvador
4308
69.2
Cote d’Ivoire
10801
56.9
Jamaica
1430
52.2
Venezuela
13080
45.1
Belize
129
41.4
Virgin Is.
43
39.2
Guatemala
5681
38.5
St. Kitts & Nevis
20
38.2
Zambia
4710
38
Uganda
11373
36.3
Malawi
5039
36
Lesotho
764
35.2
Trinidad & Tobago
472
35.2
Colombia
15459
33.4
South Africa
15940
31.8
Congo
1180
30.8
Central African Republic
1240
29.3
Puerto Rico
983
26.2
Ethiopia
20239
25.5
St. Lucia
44
25.2
Dominican Republic
2513
25
Tanzania
10357
24.5
Sudan
10028
24.2
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
25
22.9
Mexico
25757
22.7
Guinea
2152
22.5
Dominica
15
22.1
Burundi
1726
21.7
Congo, DRC
13558
21.7
Panama
759
21.6
Brazil
40974
21
Equatorial Guinea
137
20.7
Guinea-Bissau
294
20.2
Kenya
7733
20.1
Kyrgyzstan
1072
20.1
Cameroon
3700
19.7
Montserrat
1
19.7
Greenland
11
19.2
Angola
3426
19
Guyana
140
18.6
Ecuador
2638
18.2
Burkina Faso
2786
18
Eritrea
879
17.8
Namibia
352
17.2
Rwanda
1708
17.1
Chad
1686
15.8
Ghana
3646
15.7
North Korea
3658
15.2
Benin
1262
15.1
Sierra Leone
837
14.9
Mauritania
485
14.7
Botswana
287
14.5
Zimbabwe
1775
14.3
Gabon
200
13.8
Nicaragua
785
13.6
French Guiana
30
13.3
Papua New Guinea
854
13
Swaziland
141
12.9
Bermuda
8
12.3
Comoros
85
12.2
Nigeria
18422
12.2
Cape Verde
56
11.6
Grenada
12
11.5
Paraguay
741
11.5
Barbados
31
11.3
Costa Rica
527
11.3
Togo
627
10.9
Peru
2969
10.3
Myanmar
4800
10.2

In Australia, diversity is associated with mental illness. Four out of ten people in the UK have noted an erosive effect of immigration on the cohesiveness of the society. In the US, President Trump was elected partially due to his promise to reduce illegal immigration across the southern border of the US with Mexico.

Lack of Trust Associated With Diversity

Since 2007 when Robert Putnam published his blockbreaker study linking diversity with lack of trust, intelligent and well-read persons have been aware of this problem. But no one at the levels of national and international policy-making seems to have learned anything from it. Lack of trust breeds misunderstanding, which often leads to violence.

Multicultural Violence Within Nations

The overall murder rate for the USA is roughly 4.2 murders per 100,000 persons. This is less than half the rate for Russia, less than 1/10th the rate of Jamaica and less than 1/20th the rate of Honduras. But the murder rate of the US is more than 4 times the rate for Australia and most countries of Europe. Why?

We can discover the reasons for “high” murder rates in the US by looking at specific locations within the US where murders tend to occur most commonly. Almost without exception, US cities with the highest rates of homicide are also considered most “diverse” by popular metrics of diversity.

When the racial composition of cities and neighborhoods is correlated with murder rates, an interesting stratification of correlations emerges. “Diversity” is murder, according to these correlations, although further statistics need to be compiled to improve the quality of these correlations and to clarify any possible “causative” relationships.

Violent crime does not just happen. It emerges from communities and cultures of violence, where illegitimate births are common and where boys often grow up without positive role models — and under the influence of negative role models.

Violent crime has many origins — both nurture and nature. Possible genetic origins for violent crime must be explored by scientists, just as the environmental origins for violent crime must be explored without preformed opinions.

In the meantime, the flow of human migration is from nations with very high homicide rates to nations with either low or very low homicide rates. It’s murder out there, and it is coming your way. Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .

Excellent exposure of “multiculturalism” today

Why the most “multicultural” and leftist US cities are taking a high dive into a shallow pool

Posted in Blacks and crime, Crime | Tagged , , | 10 Comments