Unrepentant Failed Doomer Paul Ehrlich After 50 Years: Still Predicting Total Collapse of Civilisation “Any Day Now”

Stanford biologist Paul R. Ehrlich published the book of doom “The Population Bomb” 50 years ago, with his wife. According to Ehrlich, catastrophic global collapse was inevitable by the 1970s — or the 1980s at the latest. Ehrlich has managed to stay alive up until now, but has apparently not learned anything after all those decades of failed predictions:

In 1968, 50 years ago, Paul Ehrlich and his wife published The Population Bomb, which famously predicted mass starvation by the end of the next decade. Ehrlich’s predictions failed largely because of the green revolution, the dramatic increase in agricultural productivity. You would think that being famous for a dramatically failed prediction would bring humility, but Ehrlich is still at it. In a recent interview he argues that the collapse of civilization is a “near certainty” within decades. __ Neurologica blog

Doom is certain to come to Ehrlich himself (born 1932), and fairly soon, as it comes to all doomers eventually. Perhaps he would like to take the rest of the world with him, but he can’t. That does not stop him from trying to push his abject pessimism onto as many of his fellow Terrans as possible.

The First Earth Day Happened in April of 1970

Here are some of Paul Ehrlich’s predictions from the 1970s:

Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 issue of Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

“Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born,” wrote Paul Ehrlich in a 1969 essay titled “Eco-Catastrophe! “By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”

Paul Ehrlich [predicted] in 1970 that “air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” Ehrlich sketched a scenario in which 200,000 Americans would die in 1973 during “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles.

Paul Ehrlich warned in the May 1970 issue of Audubon that DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons “may have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945.” Ehrlich warned that Americans born since 1946…now had a life expectancy of only 49 years, and he predicted that if current patterns continued this expectancy would reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out. (Note: According to the most recent CDC report, life expectancy in the US is 78.8 years).

In 1975, Paul Ehrlich predicted that “since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rainforests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.” __ Intellectual Takeout

Paul Ehrlich is Not the Only True Believing Doom Prophet

Back in the 1970s, doomers had not adopted the climate apocalypse cult’s theme of “anthropogenic global warming doom,” but they had plenty of “reasons” to believe the world was just about to end:

Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”

“It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” declared Denis Hayes, the chief organizer for Earth Day, in the Spring 1970 issue of The Living Wilderness.

“We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment.

The day after the first Earth Day, the New York Times editorial page warned, “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”

Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

In January 1970, Life reported, “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”

Ecologist Kenneth Watt told Time that, “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.” __ Spectacularly Wrong

Rather than “global warming doom,” the doomers of 1970 were more likely to believe in “global cooling doom.” As air pollution choked human populations and blocked sunlight, agriculture would become impossible, starvation would become commonplace, and most of the human population would die before the year 2000 of starvation, disease, global cooling, energy scarcity, and pollution.

Now We Have the Climate Apocalypse Cult and Many of their Predictions Sound Familiar

Unfortunately, if we follow the predictions of the modern crop of climate doomers, we are almost certain to destroy our economies as a result of skyrocketing energy costs resulting in energy scarcity and energy starvation. Advanced societies cannot survive without abundant and affordable high quality energy supplies — and that is exactly what our mainstream doomers in the media, academia, thinktanks, and government are trying to destroy through imbecilic energy policies:

In 2017, the share of electricity coming from wind and solar was 53 percent in Denmark, 26 percent in Germany, and 23 percent in California. Denmark and Germany have the first and second most expensive electricity in Europe.

By reporting on the declining costs of solar panels and wind turbines but not on how they increase electricity prices, journalists are — intentionally or unintentionally — misleading policymakers and the public about those two technologies.

The Los Angeles Times last year reported that California’s electricity prices were rising, but failed to connect the price rise to renewables, provoking a sharp rebuttal from UC Berkeley economist James Bushnell.

“The story of how California’s electric system got to its current state is a long and gory one,” Bushnell wrote, but “the dominant policy driver in the electricity sector has unquestionably been a focus on developing renewable sources of electricity generation.”

Part of the problem is that many [journalists and environmentalists] don’t understand electricity. They think of electricity as a commodity when it is, in fact, a service…

__ https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/04/23/if-solar-and-wind-are-so-cheap-why-are-they-making-electricity-more-expensive/#3762589c1dc6

Anyone who understands grid-scale electric power delivery will instantly see the mismatch between large wind and solar farms and the underlying demands for electrical energy in advanced societies. Energy consumers in Germany, California, and South Australia are beginning to feel the sting from idiotic energy policies adopted by their elected government officials and their bureaucratic agencies.

On a moment to moment basis, energy production by wind and solar is chaotic and unpredictable. Likewise, on a moment to moment basis, energy demands by advanced societies are chaotic and unpredictable. This is obvious to anyone who is both honest and informed. “Averages” for demand and supply are not relevant to the moment to moment high wire act of keeping the power grid running. Trying to match a chaotic supply with a chaotic demand is a recipe for disaster. But the risk of disaster has never stopped true believing ideologues in the past, and is unlikely to stop them in the future. Only citizens and voters can hold back the disaster that the adoption of these green energy “solutions” are certain to bring to your hometown if nobody stops these earnest but utterly ignorant crusaders.

It is ironic that these prophets of climate apocalypse doom and other forms of ideological doom carry more certain forms of doom in their arrogantly ignorant wakes, but that is just the shape of it.

Without Electric Power, Up to 90% of Residents in Advanced Societies Would Die Within One Year

Humans have enough hydrocarbon energy resources to last for many decades, and perhaps centuries. But only advanced nuclear power has both the energy density and global reserves to safely, affordably, and cleanly power advanced human civilisations for at least the next tens or hundreds of thousands of years.

That much time should allow human ingenuity to develop even better forms of energy and power than advanced fission and fusion. But only if we can fend off the self-assured doomers and keep them from destroying everyone through their “cures which turn out to be infinitely worse than the diagnosed disease.”

The quickest way to turn a population of independent people into a society of helpless sheep, is to cut their access to critical infrastructures. If we follow the policy prescriptions of today’s crop of doomers in academia, media, government, and other social institutions, we will see for ourselves how quickly things can fall apart.

Forbes EROEI for Major Energy Forms
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2015/02/11/eroi-a-tool-to-predict-the-best-energy-mix/#4f3b2636a027
Nuclear Ranks Best on Energy Return for Investment

Important background reading (PDF download): https://www.neon-energie.de/Hirth-2013-Market-Value-Renewables-Solar-Wind-Power-Variability-Price.pdf

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Posted in Doom, Electrical Power Grid, Energy, Environment, Everything You Think You Know Just Ain't So, Green Quagmire | Tagged | 1 Comment

Jordan Peterson vs. the “Mad Dog Atheists”

Conscious Intelligence is Not a Logical Proposition

Clinical psychologist Jordan Peterson has staked out a large territory in the sphere of public discussion, which borders on several distinctly different areas of thought and belief. These multiple “boundary lines” have become lightning rods of controversy, as “experts” of various types come to feel that an outsider is treading upon their treasured turf.

One of the most interesting lines of controversy between Professor Peterson and antagonists, involves the opposition of militant atheists to Peterson’s symbolic and allegorical treatment of religious thought and the Christian bible.

The main problem that I see with this controversial cross-border interaction, is that two distinct languages are being spoken on either side of the dividing line. The “true believer” atheists are using the language of logical propositions, while Dr. Peterson is using a much deeper language of metaphor and allegory. It could be argued that logical propositions may be suitable for describing how a conscious intelligence might arrive at reasonable moral values or judgments — although that is open to debate. But I submit that the unconscious mental processes which comprise almost the entirety of what is happening in the brain, function far from any hint of propositional logic. And understanding this moves the entire discussion to an entirely different foundation than what “born again” atheists might believe in their hearts of atheist faith.

The Rider and the Elephant

The overwhelming mass of our brains is dedicated to unconscious processing — like “the rider and the elephant” analogy by psychologist Jonathan Haidt:

Even more than conscious intelligence, unconscious intelligence is not a logical proposition — not even a complex set of logical propositions. This is particularly true when dealing with morals, values, and questions of ethics. Consider the following approach to value judgments formulated by social psychologist Jonathan Haidt:

The Intuitive Judgment Link
We reach our moral judgments effortlessly through moral intuitions.

The Post Hoc Reasoning Link
Moral reasoning, on the other hand, is an effortful process that takes place after judgments are reached.

The Reasoned Persuasion Link
We produce and verbally express our moral reasoning in order to justify the conclusions we have already made.

The Social Persuasion Link
We are all highly susceptible to group norms of morality, even to the mere knowledge that our associates have a moral judgment.

__ Source

This description seems closer to the underlying reality than the idea that we reach value judgments or moral decisions using conventional logic. Logical reasoning is indeed a “johnny come lately” to the evolutionary party. Much like statistical reasoning, it is not a natural style of thought for the untrained brain. When Harris, Dennett, Dawkins, and Hitchens attempt to refute religious approaches to thought using propositional logic, they are committing a basic logical fallacy of “epistemological mismatch.”

It is true that “scientific reasoning” has opened the world of possibilities for humans to an extent undreamed of several hundred years ago. And it is likewise true that propositional logic in the form of “algorithmic reasoning” has sped up and extended the development of several areas of human enterprise in an impressive manner.

And yet there are definite limits to scientific and logical reasoning which must be faced and dealt with by intelligent beings, if humans are to use their distinctly evolved brains to achieve higher levels of existence.

Propositional Logic vs. Invisible Metaphor

The ongoing debates between philosophical neuroscientist Sam Harris and philosophical clinical psychologist Jordan Peterson highlight this epistemological difference. Our brains did not evolve along logical lines, but rather under the influence of a long chain of environmental conditions over hundreds of millions of years. As a result, only a relatively few humans — even today — can do science, math, statistics, or careful rational thinking of any kind at very high levels.

I am reminded of the old “Prolog vs. Lisp” controversy a few decades ago in Artificial Intelligence research. Prolog is clearly superior for abstracting logical propositions, but Lisp has distinct strengths of its own, making it a better language to use for other forms of high level abstraction.

Prolog lost much of its appeal as cognition researchers came to understand the massive differences between logical propositions and the generation of intelligent output. The “limits of logic” parallel the “limits of science” in many ways. Born again atheists such as Sam Harris attempt to stretch the concept of “science” far beyond any reasonable limits, in order to plant the flag of victory of conscious logical propositions over the unconscious and massive elephant of irrationality that lies beneath. The evolved human brain is that elephant, and evolution continues — for now — to be the master, in this ongoing master-slave relationship.

Al Fin was Atheist Before Atheism was Cool

Back in the early 2000s, four influential books on atheism were published by 4 men belonging to a group sometimes referred to as “The New Atheists.”

On September 30, 2007 four prominent atheists (Richard Dawkins, Sam Harris, Christopher Hitchens and Daniel Dennett) met at Hitchens’ residence in Washington, D.C., for a private two-hour unmoderated discussion. The event was videotaped and titled “The Four Horsemen”.[18]

Personally, I had been an “atheist” for many years, and in addition I had long admired some of the work of Dawkins and Dennett, and was sympathetic with some of Hitchens’ work. But after skimming these works and watching some videos of the different men describing their views, I was struck by the militancy and the quasi-religious proselytisation aspects of much of the atheism being presented by this group.

The experience cast a negative pall over my view of several authors whom I would otherwise find generally enlightening. Why? The sheer militant superficiality of their zeal. They reminded me of christian crusaders off the kill the jew and the mohammedan, in any manifestation whatsoever.

I was once a Christian, and am now an “atheist.” But I came to my “atheism” honestly, and maintained deep sympathies toward others who chose — for their own reasons — to believe otherwise than myself. I had no reason to want to “convert” them. Probably if we were living in the age of the crusades or the Spanish Inquisition I would see this divide differently. But it is only the muslims today who are killing in the name of religion — at least outside of Africa. Even Northern Ireland seems to have brought about a de facto peace between the green and the orange.

Jordan Peterson Chooses the Evolutionary Path

Rather than trying to force the round brain into a square hole of propositional logic, Peterson is willing to follow the evolutionary twists and turns of the irrational human mind. As a research scientist — and clinician — in the field of psychology, Peterson is deeply immersed in both the scientific literature and the clinical experience of real human beings in all their glorious dysfunction.

But Peterson went further. Understanding too well the limits of science and logic, Peterson dove into the works of Nietzsche, Dostoevsky, Solzhenitsyn, Jung, Rogers, and many more — in an attempt to understand more clearly the nature of our evolved brains, and especially the minds they generate. He devoted 3 hours of every day for between 15 and 20 years to this quest for understanding, and the product was the book “Maps of Meaning.” A lecture series by the same name is available (in multiple iterations) free for viewing on YouTube.

Let’s be frank (and don’t call me Shirley!). No one person can master all of the mental pursuits which Jordan Peterson is attempting. But it is a measure of the soundness and robust resilience of his complex psyche that he is able to achieve what he has done. Peterson delivers more insights in many single videos than most people will ever absorb in their entire lifetimes. Metaphor, allegory, and symbol penetrate much more deeply than propositional logic can do — at least when it comes to the human experience, which is the only experience we are capable of having.

And make no mistake: Peterson is not finished yet. Although currently sidetracked and overwhelmed by speaking engagements, travel, requests for interviews, and other demands on his time, he has also been working on a series of videos on The Psychological Significance of Biblical Stories. Although I am no longer particularly interested in “biblical stories,” I will likely take the time to look in on most of these new videos. Why? Because of the insight which Peterson brings to virtually everything he approaches. Scientific, clinical, philosophical, and personal insights, which are unique to him because of the combination of his evolved genetic complement and his unique experiences over time.

Why I am an “Atheist” and Not an Atheist

Al Fin is an “Atheist” in quotes, because the entire idea of atheism is absurd. There is no credible or consistent definition of “god” to which a person can declare his non-belief. Every believer holds a different conception of “god” in his heart. And for many, it is the belief in this being which provides meaning to their lives — and a reason to continue living. While an atheist might find satisfaction in tearing down another person’s deepest source of personal value, an “Atheist” certainly would not.

Most atheists are too superficial in their understanding of evolved mind and culture. They stop digging just when things get interesting, certain that they have already discovered “truth.” But there are different epistemologies, with different abilities to measure different facets of real world realities. Settling for merely one of many without taking a broader view is the mark of someone who quits too early in the pursuit.

Take your time. Experience life while learning about yourself and others. Sample widely. Choose wisely while being true to yourself. Keep a sharp and open mind. Make yourself very Dangerous, just in case.

Book recommendation: Critique of Religion and Philosophy by philosopher Walter Kaufmann

Posted in Cognition, Jordan Peterson, Knowledge, Machine Intelligence, Science | Tagged | 4 Comments

Russia Backs Away from International Space Launch Market

Russia Once Called SpaceX “A Nice Trick”


But now Russia is running up the white flag and surrendering to SpaceX — and you don’t surrender to “a nice trick.” You surrender to a force that has defeated you.

As recently as 2013, Russia controlled about half of the global commercial launch industry with its fleet of rockets, including the Proton boosters. But technical problems with the Proton, as well as competition from SpaceX and other players, has substantially eroded the Russian share. This year, it may only have about 10 percent of the commercial satellite launch market, compared to as much as 50 percent for SpaceX.

… On Tuesday… Russia’s chief spaceflight official, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, made a remarkable comment about that country’s competition with SpaceX.

“The share of launch vehicles is as small as 4 percent of the overall market of space services,” Rogozin said in an interview with a Russian television station. “The 4 percent stake isn’t worth the effort to try to elbow Musk and China aside. Payloads manufacturing is where good money can be made.”

According to an independent analysis, the global launch market is worth about $5.5 billion annually. Losing its half-share of this market, therefore, has probably cost the Russians about $2 billion, which is a significant fraction of its non-military aerospace budget. __ https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/04/russia-appears-to-have-surrendered-to-spacex-in-the-global-launch-market/

But Russia isn’t doing so well in the “payloads manufacturing” business either. In fact, across the span of high tech manufacturing, Russia is being severely challenged by international competition. If not for the captive market of military and nuclear manufacturing, Russia’s high tech manufacturing sector would be in serious trouble.

Space Surrender Reminiscent of Great Fracking Bluff

Until very recently, the Russian view of the North American Oil & Gas Renaissance was to “deny!deny!deny!”. According to Putin and the Kremlin flunkies and trolls, North American shale oil & gas was a joke, destined to collapse “any day now.” And they played the same song for almost a decade with minimal, if any, revision. Years after oil & gas prices collapsed in 2014, Russia was still claiming that North American oil & gas production was not having any appreciable impact on the Russian economy.

Russia Oil Curse Economy
Wikipedia: Russia Export Treemap

The graphic above gives cause to question such claims. In fact, anything that affects international oil & gas prices will strongly influence the Russian economy.

Kremlin Mocks What She Fears

When the Kremlin is afraid of something, its first response is to mock it and deny its existence and/or its importance. This is a standard operating procedure seen during the Soviet years and during the Putin years. But there may come a day when the Kremlin needs some credibility, and finds that it has squandered it all.

SpaceX has been changing the equation of space launch for over 6 years now, which should have given Russia plenty of time to adapt to the challenge. But for many reasons, Russian industry is old and tired, cranky and stiff. Rich in grandiose vapourware announcements of “startling innovations”, mediocre in the prototype, but very very weak in actual mass production. It is becoming a Russian cliche.

Russian Defence Production Follies

Russian admirals have been aware of the fact that they won’t have much of a navy by the 2020s unless these older ships are replaced. The problem is that the older ships cannot be refurbished or upgraded because that would cost more than buying new ones, These older ships are not just falling apart, but because there was not any money available right after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, there were few repairs and no upgrades during the 1990s.

… Most of Russia’s warship building capability (experience and kills) disappeared during 1991… Since the late 1990s, most of the Russian construction effort went into finishing a few subs and building some surface ships for export. Even these subs had serious construction problems. Mainly it was quality control and the navy refused to accept ships, especially subs that could not pass sea trials. Apparently, the ship yards were ordered to put all their efforts into the subs and eventually some of these limped into service.

… Now the Russian navy is in desperate shape. The latest example of how this is working out can be seen in the continuing delays getting the new class of 4,500 ton frigates (the Gorshkov class or “Project 22350”) into service. Construction on these began in 2006 but by 2010 only one had been launched and it was still only half complete. The navy wanted twenty Gorshkovs to replace the Cold War era Sovremenny class destroyers and Burevestnik class frigates. The government has only promised money for twelve Gorshkov sand has since raised that to fifteen. But so far the first Gorshkov has not passed sea trials. This ship was commissioned in 2017 but could not enter service until it passed the sea trials. So far the Gorshkov has not done so. The latest delay is the failure of the anti-aircraft missile system to function properly. There are also problems with the engines. The builder says all will be ready by July. A second Gorshkov was launched in 2014 and is to be ready for sea trials in 2018. A third Gorshkov is under construction but the launch date is unknown because another side effect of the Ukraine invasion was Ukraine refusing to supply any more naval turbines. Russia said it was having a Russian firm begin construction but that is behind schedule and now it looks like no more Gorshkovs (aside from the first two) will be available for completion until the early 2020s. __ StrategyPage

Whether you are talking about ships, planes, helicopters, tanks, or missile forces, the story is the same. Loud claims about the capabilities of weapons systems are made, while the darker realities behind the propaganda screens tell a different story. And given the massive levels of corruption across Russian industry, even a doubling of current oil prices would not allow Russia to make up the skills and innovation deficit across the industrial spectrum. Russia no longer has the necessary talent to do what would have to be done to back up its propaganda releases.

And that is very bad, because the Kremlin is getting Russia involved in a large number of wars and quasi-wars:

… the Kremlin has gotten involved in “too many fronts,” has “too few resources,” and “absolutely no friends,” a situation that has prompted Putin to talk about the use of nuclear “wonder weapons” not as a last resort “but as the only one” ___ (rosbalt.ru/blogs/2018/04/10/1695422.html) via WOE2.

The civilian homefront is losing its strength and cohesiveness in a weakening economy, encouraging ever increasing brain drain and capital flight abroad. Tipping point mechanisms eventually take hold, making decline unstoppable.

Russians’ Incomes Fall for Fourth Year in a Row, as Prices and Bankruptcies Rise…. Industrial production set a record for decline (ru-mir.net/2018/01/24/rossiyskaya-promyishlennost-postavila-rekord-po-samounichtozheniyu/), Russia’s foreign debt rose to 529 billion US dollars (.interfax.ru/business/596215), the rate of capital flight doubled from last year to this (rusnation.org/sfk/1801/1801-27.shtml), corporate defaults set a record as well (ng.ru/economics/2018-01-23/4_7156_defolts.html), and domestic debt rose 18 percent in 2017 (graniru.org/Economy/m.267082.html). Some analysts suggested that these numbers show that the policy of the Russian Central Bank is hurting the country more than any Western sanctions could (dailystorm.ru/politika-centralnogo-banka-rossii-vrednee-chem-novye-sankcii-ssha). __ http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.cl/2018/04/a-bakers-double-dozen-of-neglected.html

But that is not true, since almost any other approach taken by the RCB would likely have led to an even faster decline.

Russia is Losing its Talent and Its Heart

It is becoming almost impossible for intelligent Russians to believe in the idea of Russia any longer — unless they are paid very well to do so. Less intelligent Kremlin trolls are a dime a dozen on internet comment sites and forums across the net, but they are not creative or interesting, so why bother reading them?

Most Russians with talent and skills wants to leave. Who can blame them? Even the best Kremlin trolls tend to work from outside of Russia, putting the lie to many of their own claims.

Drugs and alcohol provide temporary respite from reality, but the world always wins. Putin, of course, can always invade another country — if he can find the willing young men to do so.

Hope for the Best. Prepare for the Worst

More:

Brain Drain on the Rise

Half of elite students want to move abroad

Russia cannot afford to buy its new weapons

More on Russia’s shipbuilding fiasco

Posted in Brain Drain, Russian Decline, Space Future | Tagged | 5 Comments

Still Waiting for Peak Oil?

Evolving Concepts of Production Curves
Source

In 1920, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that “the world’s supply of recoverable petroleum” was no more than 60 billion barrels. It was wrong. The world has already produced 1,400 billion barrels of oil. Worldwide, there is about 1,700 billion barrels of oil in reserve – nearly a 60-year supply at current production rates. And the size of the ultimate resource is likely to be greater than 10 trillion barrels.

Peak oil predictions and other Malthusian prognostications of resource limits have failed repeatedly for decades….

Oil and other fossil fuels will continue to be our primary energy sources through the end of this century because they offer four great advantages. Compared to renewables, fossil fuels are inexpensive, reliable, abundant, and concentrated. The age of oil is far from being eclipsed. We have barely begun to exploit unconventional oil resources. The western U.S. alone contains at least 2 trillion barrels of petroleum in oil shale formations. At a current U.S. annual consumption rate of 7.2 billion barrels, that’s a 278-year supply.

___ Peak Oil Keeps Everyone Waiting at the Altar

The Permian Basin Revolution

Conventional orthodoxy tells us that we are running out of hydrocarbons — but even if we were not running out of hydrocarbons, it tells us, we would still need to stop using them in order to save the planet. But what if the opposite were true? What if we can only save the planet — and modern civilisation — by continuing to use hydrocarbons in ways that are ever smarter, ever more efficient (at least until advanced nuclear power comes of age)?

Alex Epstein of the Center for Industrial Progress explains how modern societies have cleaned up our water, air and streets using the very energy sources you may not have expected–oil, coal and natural gas. __ http://capitalismmagazine.com/2018/04/fossil-fuels-the-greenest-energy/

Energy Density Comparison from Wikipedia
Fusion, Fission Orders of Magnitude Better than Chemical and Other Energy Sources


We know that nuclear reactions are “orders of magnitude” more energy dense than chemical reactions — such as combustion of fossil fuels. In the long run, humans will have to use nuclear energy to provide most of the heat and electric power that advanced human civilisations will use. But unfortunately, the same Luddite organisations that oppose the use of hydrocarbons also are hysterically opposed to the use of all forms of nuclear power.

Humans need to develop safer, more efficient, and more affordable ways of using hydrocarbons, nuclear fission, and eventually nuclear fusion. But political forces of a most obtuse nature are keeping us from moving into a more abundant and expansive energy future.

It is obvious to anyone who looks closely, that leftist organisations of political activism are mainly interested in bringing European and Anglospheric nations to their knees — whether via energy starvation, carbon hysteria, zero-threshold radiation hysteria, death by multicultural immigration overload, or by any means necessary.

It is up to us to be sure not to let these perverse miscreants of the anti-human persuasion be successful in their mission to cut civilisation off at the knees.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Posted in Peak Oil | Tagged , | 2 Comments

What to Eat When All the Food is Gone

After TSHTF, most stored food supplies will rapidly dwindle and vanish. Livestock will be quickly butchered and eaten — although without freezers and food preservation skills, most of the meat will be wasted. Wild game will quickly disappear, and most people cannot distinguish safe plants and mushrooms. What will you eat when the easy food is gone?

A few suggestions:

  1. Grasshoppers and Crickets
  2. Ants
  3. Termites
  4. Grubs
  5. Potato Bug
  6. Earthworms (Cook before eating)
  7. Stinkbugs
  8. Scorpions (Best eaten dead)
  9. __ 8 Edible Survival Bugs

The gourmet bug eater’s guide

Eating bugs–or at least products made from bugs–has been growing in popularity. For a few years, it’s been possible to buy cricket snacks such as protein bars made with cricket flour or cricket chips (like Chirps) at some grocery stores or online. But for insect food to fulfill its sustainable promise of supplying protein without the massive carbon and land footprint of beef, it will have to be much more widely available, and more affordable. __ FastCompany

You may need to adjust your present concept of “food.”

Crickets, fruit flies, grasshoppers, and mealworms are all being cultivated for use in consumer food products. Grasshopper farms like Israel’s Hargol says they are racing to increase the production capacity of their operations as demand for this alternative protein is higher than current supply. __ Insect Farm Startups

Insects Make Good Livestock Feed Too

This insect feed powder “smells like roasted peanuts:”

Enterra Feed, one of an emerging crop of insect growers, will process the bugs into protein-rich food for fish, poultry – even pets. After being fattened up, the fly larvae will be roasted, dried and bagged or pressed to extract oils, then milled into a brown powder that smells like roasted peanuts. __ Reuters

Hamburger superstar McDonald’s is investigating putting insect protein into its chicken feed, to provide a more natural alternative to soy protein. Chickens seem to enjoy eating insects, and humans certainly seem to enjoy eating chickens.

One way or another humans will soon be eating a lot more insects — either directly, or via insect-fed livestock such as chicken, cattle, and fish.

Insects are a natural diet for many fish [and chicken] but can also provide the high levels of protein livestock farmers want for their cattle to promote animal growth. __ agfundernews

The Trend Toward Eating Insects is Clear for Man and Beast

After TSHTF you may need to learn to catch insects. Sooner or later, you will get tired of having to catch them. Most foods are not available all year round in the wild. You will want to learn to grow them yourself.

Since the dawn of man, insects and their tiny relatives have been eating humans and sucking their blood. It is time for humans to return the favour, and begin eating insects and other rapidly proliferating small animals. They are nutritional, and can be grown quickly and readily just about anywhere.

There is no need to wait until TSHTF to savour these naughty little delicacies, although you certainly may wait if you wish. But do not wait to learn the skills of growing these tiny nutritious treats, and cultivating the secrets of preparing them in an appetizing manner.

Insect Farming (Wikipedia)

Posted in Agriculture, Insects | Tagged | Leave a comment

On Putting the Freeloaders Back to Work

In case you still believe that Donald Trump is not accomplishing important work behind the Twitter smokescreen, consider the issue of “welfare reform,” otherwise known as putting the freeloaders back to work.

According to government statistics, there are about 6.9 million unemployed in the US, and roughly 6.2 million available jobs. The match between jobs available and people currently out of work is not perfect, but people who want to and intend to work can usually find a starter job to work up from in the Trump economy.

Overly Generous and Over-available Welfare Shifts Incentives

Unfortunately, it is in the human nature of many persons to not want to do work unless they need to do so. And if someone will pay them not to work — as in welfare etc. — their incentives are shifted toward not working.

President Trump wants to shift the incentives back:

Right now, America combines near-record-low unemployment with near-record-high welfare dependency — the result of state-level eligibility exemptions, federal loopholes and policies that put work on the back burner. Many of these policies created incentives for able-bodied adults to sit on the sidelines — even though there is good, well-paying work to be done. The resulting safety net isn’t a safety net at all — it has entrapped able-bodied adults in dependency and threatened resources for the truly needy.

But welfare reform can change that. And the Trump administration has just given agency leaders a road map to do so.

The executive order, signed Tuesday afternoon, lays out principles to encourage economic mobility through work — a tactic that we’ve seen succeed in states across the nation. It calls for a strengthened work requirement for able-bodied adults, building off the requirement established in the 1996 bipartisan welfare reform that requires able-bodied adults on food stamps to work, train or volunteer for at least 20 hours per week. __ New York Post

The late president Obama expanded availability and generosity of welfare benefits to record levels, with predictable results. The number of people on welfare exploded. Of course, with the dismal economy that Obama provided to them, opportunities were not what they should have been. Even so, perhaps every grammar school student should be sent on a tour of sub Saharan Africa to gain an understanding of what true poverty and lack of opportunity look like.

Manufacturing Jobs Reappear

According to the U.S. Labor Department, the number of manufacturing jobs nationwide grew by just 0.1%, or 18,000, in 2016, the last year of the Obama presidency. But since the beginning of 2017, manufacturing employment growth has averaged more than 18,700 a month, according to National Association of Manufacturers economist Chad Moutray. In March, even as overall payroll job growth slowed, manufacturers added another 22,000 workers.

The surprising resilience of manufacturing employment is good news for American workers.

On average, according to the U.S. Commerce Department, annual compensation (including the cash value of health insurance, pension fund contributions, and other noncash benefits as well as wages and salaries) per American manufacturing employee is $77,268, or roughly 60 percent higher than per employee compensation across the entire nonagricultural private sector. __ Source

Start-ups and the Gig/Patchwork Economy

Besides jobs that are available already, US residents can “create their own jobs” by starting their own businesses and/or dipping their feet into the gig-patchwork economy:

The gig economy is booming. And some think gig work could become the norm in the future. A study released in September by the Freelancers Union and Upwork predicts freelancers will make up a majority of the U.S. workforce within a decade.

“The world of work is changing, the gig economy is here, it’s here to stay, it’s growing, and you best prepare to work that way,” says Diane Mulcahy who teaches a class on the gig economy at Babson College.

And the gig economy is not just about tech-based platforms, like TaskRabbit. That’s less than 1 percent of the gig economy, according to a 2016 Harvard-Princeton study. The gig economy is mostly freelancers, contractors and part-time workers. That’s because companies now offer fewer full-time jobs.

“If you look at our most highly valued and high growth companies out in Silicon Valley — Facebook, Dropbox, Twilio, Twitter — they’re not creating full-time jobs at the same rate as, let’s say, you know, the old GEs of the day where they have 300,000 full-time employees,” says Mulcahy, who has also written a book about the gig economy.

Gig work is also on the rise because people like the flexibility of it, and technology has made it easier to connect people to jobs.

The patchwork or “gig” economy consists of people who choose to go from “gig” to “gig,” in a freelance manner. It is a form of self-employment or independent contractor status. At this time, most patchworkers act as the agents, brokers, and managers of their work. But there is an entire looming industry and software sector growing up around the phenomenon.

Once a person experiences success in self-employment, he will look at the entire economy — and how politics infringes on the economy — in a different way.

Education for the Gig/Patchwork will Be A Horse of a Different Colour

The dominant viewpoint toward education in North America revolves around the old “train to get a job or specific career” mentality. But what happens when most people have several different careers? What happens when they are able to shift from one area of work to another at the drop of a dime — or a shift in economic conditions? In such a situation, it is the broadly competent and highly flexible worker who is at an advantage. How do you educate and train someone to be that kind of worker? Certainly not via the mainstream antiquated system of education that exists now.

Dangerous Children master at least 3 distinct ways to achieve financial independence by the age of 18. But they are not conventional children, and stay far from the mainstream in virtually every way — especially in the sense that they are always ready to deal with rapid changes.

Pay attention. Make provisions for a changing world.

Posted in Donald Trump, Economics | Tagged , | 4 Comments

A Warning About Antidepressants

We Already Knew About This:

… most of the perpetrators of mass murder over the past fifteen to twenty years had been taking prescription medicines at the time of their killings, and the drugs they had been taking were usually SSRIs or other medications commonly used to treat depression and/or anxiety disorders. __ http://www.offthegridnews.com/alternative-health/psychiatric-drugs-and-mass-murder-exploring-the-connection/

More

And we already knew that antidepressants predispose recipients to behaviours such as suicide.

An analysis of 70 trials of the most common antidepressants – involving more than 18,000 people – found they doubled the risk of suicide and aggressive behaviour in under 18s. __ Telegraph

But Now We Are Learning How Hard It is to Stop Taking Them

Patients who try to stop taking the drugs often say they cannot. In a recent survey of 250 long-term users of psychiatric drugs — most commonly antidepressants — about half who wound down their prescriptions rated the withdrawal as severe. Nearly half who tried to quit could not do so because of these symptoms

Antidepressants are not harmless; they commonly cause emotional numbing, sexual problems like a lack of desire or erectile dysfunction and weight gain. Long-term users report in interviews a creeping unease that is hard to measure: Daily pill-popping leaves them doubting their own resilience, they say.

“We’ve come to a place, at least in the West, where it seems every other person is depressed and on medication,” said Edward Shorter, a historian of psychiatry at the University of Toronto. “You do have to wonder what that says about our culture.”

__ NYT

Pharmaceutical companies lobby government officials far more intensely than small organisations such as the National Rifle Association. So when US national media goes off half-cocked over the relationship between gun rights and school shootings — but “forgets” to mention the relationship between psychiatric drugs and mass shootings — we have to wonder whose bread is being buttered by whom.

Now that we are discovering how addictive psychiatric drugs can be — and how subtly they can change brains and behaviours — alarm bells should be ringing around the globe. But they are not, and we should be asking why.

Alternatives to Antidepressants are Looking More Attractive

All of a sudden, non-drug approaches to treating anxiety and depression are more appealing. Cognitive Behavioural Therapy, for example, provides all the benefits of drug treatment without the many unfortunate side effects.

Mindfulness approaches to treating anxiety and depression likewise provide profound benefits to persons who apply themselves to the practise. The benefits of mindfulness practise go far beyond the treatment of anxiety and depression, of course. Long term practitioners of the discipline often experience beneficial changes to their brain circuitry, physical health, thought patterns, personal insight, and general discernment of the world around them.

Conventional psychotherapy and psychoanalysis have had mixed results over the decades since Freud, but recent developments by clinical psychologists such as Jordan Peterson offer new hope for practical person-directed improvement in life satisfaction. The combination of Peterson’s “Understand Myself” self test, and his “Self-Authoring” suite — used with or without the associated “Writing Guide” — open doors to self understanding and self-change which can be difficult to reach in other ways.

Other unconventional forms of treating depression include various types of electrical and magnetic stimulation, neurofeedback and special custom video games may help some, hypnosis, exercise, art therapy, music therapy, and especially “laughter therapy,” are more non-pharmaceutical approaches that are seriously worth trying.

Antidepressant drugs can be lifesavers in some instances. But they are two-edged swords, and should not be used nearly to the extent that is being done by the medical and mental health professions.

The cure for a life that seems to be not worth living, is to get a life that is worth living. Jordan Peterson is one of the clearest contemporary guides to that approach, and his book “12 Rules for Life” is an excellent start for most people. Many other authors and clinicians offer effective approaches to moving from here to a better place.

Taking a pill is a lazy approach to solving most problems in life, and is one of the symptoms that something is very badly wrong with modern culture.

It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Posted in Cognition, Human Brain, Medicine | Tagged | 1 Comment

Forced Sterilisation of African Women: Can We Stop It in Time?

If the people of one continent of Earth continue to pursue exponential population growth over the next century, the population of the planet could easily double or even triple. Radical environmentalists are feeling increasingly threatened by the inability of African populations to reduce their growth rates, although so far they are largely prevented by political correctness from mentioning their growing alarm thru public channels.


Most of the world’s nations are experiencing drops in population growth. Africa is different, and for some reason population growth rates have increased in Africa — rather than decrease. Brian Wang’s Nextbigfuture website sounds the warning over recent increases for population growth in Africa.

Africa’s population growth rate has not declined since 1955.

The annual population growth rate increased from 2.22% in 1955 to 2.85% in 1985.
Then it went down to 2.47% in 2000 but then went back up to 2.60% in 2010-2015 and is now at 2.52%.

There is no firmly established downward trend in population growth in Africa. __ NextBigFuture


Exponential growth of animal populations tends to reach an upper limit set by limited food supplies or other environmental factors. Human ingenuity in populations of Europe, the Anglosphere, East Asia, and South Asia have allowed humans to surmount prior Malthusian limits to growth, so far.

But such populations have voluntarily limited their own population growth at more stable levels, making it easier to provide their people with a prosperous lifestyle. Nations of Africa and other nations such as Pakistan, have not shown a capacity for such self-limitation.

In most countries [of Africa], the population growth is in excess of 2% every year.

In addition, there is a high proportion of younger people within the Africa population as a whole, with reports that 41% of the African population is under the age of 15. __ World Population Review

Africa is a special case, in that African populations themselves have not been the source for the ingenious improvements in food production, health care, vaccines, pharmaceuticals, transportation, communication, energy, logistics, and other technologies which allowed populations around the world to leap over earlier barriers to human population growth. In other words, Africa’s populations are being allowed to grow because their countries are recipients of abundant aide and technology transfer from more advanced parts of the world.

Other Populations Of the World are Experiencing Much Lower Growth

In other parts of the world, young women have the freedom and the will to have fewer children than their mothers and grandmothers may have had. This is due to improved education for women and a proliferation of career paths — along with improved choices for birth control. In addition, cultural changes have channeled more women away from traditional lives toward more materialistic and hedonistic lifestyles which leave much less room and time for children.

In Africa, by contrast, lifestyle choices of girls and women are more limited. There are many reasons for this radical difference of trends in personal choices by females of different continents, but the outcome is exponential population growth for Africa, and stable population levels for most of the rest of the world.

Can Radical Environmentalists Be Stopped from Forcibly Sterilising African Women?

Radical green environmentalists understand what is happening — although they cannot publicly express their concerns or discuss their plans for dealing with what they see as a looming crisis for mother Gaia. A more covert approach is therefore necessary for them. How might they try to proceed?

A Playbook from “Tuf Voyaging”

In the science fiction novel “Tuf Voyaging” by George R. R. Martin, the protagonist finds himself forced to solve a similar problem for an entire planet whose population is growing exponentially — causing a deadly threat to the people of nearby planets.

His solution was “manna from heaven:”

S’uthlam’s population problem remains, worse than ever, as Tuf’s innovations from his previous visit were not maximally used. Its society is beginning to break down and either a terrible war or utter social collapse seems likely. Tuf labors to find a solution, and calls a meeting of all the worlds about to clash. He presents to them his solution: an edible, mildly addictive plant called “manna”, which will freely grow everywhere on S’uthlam and eliminate its hunger problems. After some arm-twisting, in which Tuf threatens to use the military might of his seedship against anyone who refuses, the hostile worlds agree to an armistice. Tuf later tells a horrified Mune that the manna will indeed feed her people, but will also inhibit the libidos of the S’uthlamese and cause widespread, but not universal, infertility. He leaves Mune to make a momentous decision for S’uthlam; it is implied that she accepts the provision of manna to forestall war and famine. __ Tuf Voyaging (Wikipedia)

It is easy to imagine something similar being done using vaccines from the UN, medicines supplied by NGOs, or using food aid from China or Germany. If environmentalist greens see the choice as being between global ruin and the distasteful use of involuntary sterilisation, it should be obvious which choice the greens of VHEMT, Dieoff.org, and other radical left environmentalist ideological foundations would likely make.

Why Do African Women Follow a Different Path?

Left wing radical environmentalists would likely act in more humane ways toward Africa in the future, if they were somehow able to influence African women to follow the path of reduced birthrates that is being followed by the women of most of the rest of the world. But despite much effort and work by UN agencies, NGOs, and global foundations and charitable groups, women in Africa are different than their sisters elsewhere, for some reason.

Could Low Population IQs Influence Life Choices?

The lower a person’s IQ, the fewer choices she may have in terms of education, career, and lifestyle. Average population IQ levels in sub Saharan Africa range between roughly 65 and 75 IQ points, by most estimates. Such persons are limited to simple tasks and occupations. There is no way that populations with such low average IQs could — on their own — build and maintain the advanced infrastructures on which more advanced societies rely.

This is why the Chinese build advanced railways in Africa, and the Russians say they will build nuclear power plants there — but without constant maintenance and support by outsiders, such advanced infrastructures will inevitably collapse. In the case of nuclear power plants, such a collapse would have long-lasting and unfortunate consequences.

What is the Best Way to Proceed?

One of the goals of the radical left green environmentalist movement has long been a radical dieoff of humans around the world. One of the quickest paths to such a dieoff would be to make hydrocarbon fuels inaccessible to most human populations. Without access to abundant and affordable hydrocarbons, virtually all populations of Earth would experience a rapid dieoff.

The reason for such a dieoff is that the planetary carrying capacity for the human species depends critically upon energy for agriculture, transportation, logistics, communications, chemical production, heating/cooling/refrigeration, pharmaceuticals, and several other critical infrastructures.

This helps to explain much of the radical left’s actions taken under the false flags of “climate change” and other related ginned-up crusades to “save the planet.”

Understanding the goals of the left is one of the first steps necessary to confront the problem of the likely hysterical and inhumane actions that will be taken by groups and persons following such an ideology.

Next, we must understand “carrying capacity,” and what it means for the diverse evolved populations of Earth and their futures.

Advanced populations that generate greater prosperity and ingenuity will necessarily reach higher “carrying capacities” for their portions of the planet, than less advanced populations. It is important that each evolved population group be allowed to rise to its own distinct “carrying capacity.”

In the case of Africa, populations have been pushed far above carrying capacities by constant outside assistance in the form of vaccines, medications, food, infrastructure construction & maintenance, and other forms of aide.

If African populations fell within stable and manageable levels, such outside aide would not be a problem — despite the induced helplessness which they create within recipient populations. If populations are artificially held at a higher carrying capacity than they could sustain for themselves, a severe letdown is inevitable sometime in the future.

The people of Europe, in particular, should ask themselves whether they wish to allow Africans to “reach their own level” now, or whether Europe would be better off to relax their assistance after African populations have doubled or tripled?

There is No Reason for Leftist Forced Sterilisation

When leftists of the 1900s promoted forced sterilisation for persons of low intelligence, they were considered progressive and advanced in their thinking by the leading intellectuals of their day. But since the days of the National Socialists of Germany in the 1930s and 1940s, such forced approaches to population change have been frowned upon.

But that will be no problem, since radical leftists have control of the echo choirs of modern media, academia, government, Hollywood, foundations, NGOs, activist groups, Silicon Valley, and environmental organisations. Whatever inhumane path they choose, the loudspeakers of dominant leftist culture will certainly back them up.

The Problem in Africa is Real, but a Leftist Engineered Dieoff is not the Answer

Humane individuals who have chosen to leave the left for reasons such as those mentioned above, will understand the need to develop better solutions which will not lead to a leftist designed holocaust — but will also not leave Europe submerged beneath a tsunami of “low carrying capacity immigrants.”

This involves treading a treacherous middle ground in order to achieve a robust and sustainable humane solution. Can it be done? Time will tell.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Posted in Africa, Idiocracy, Maintenance | Tagged , | Leave a comment

First Blood: Sam Harris Confronts the Echo Choir

First Blood: In Which Sam Harris Offends Ezra Klein

As long as author and provocateur Sam Harris only attacked Christians, violent Muslims, and Donald Trump, he was mostly left alone by the curtained overlords of politically correct public discourse.

But now that Harris has begun discussing the taboo topic of “race and IQ,” he is coming face to face with the dark side of the far left echo choir, which has controlled most public conversation in the US since at least the 1990s. Harris made the “mistake” of holding an honest and respectful dialogue with Charles Murray, author of the controversial book of scholarship, “The Bell Curve.”

In this case, the particular echo choir tenor to attack Harris is Ezra Klein of Vox. When the echo choir attacks someone, unless the target immediately submits and recants, the choir aims to destroy the person body and soul.

Sam Harris is bright and coherent, but he is naive. Harris himself wields a cutting and sarcastic voice against many targets, but most of them are relatively soft targets, or otherwise not likely to retaliate. But when he opens an honest — though very mild and timid — discussion of scientific evidence into links between race and IQ, he unwittingly confronts an altogether different animal, one that will do anything at all to destroy its opponents.

Since the Vox hit the fan, Harris has tried to carry on an open and honest dialogue with Journolist founder Ezra Klein, but if Sam had done his homework on Klein and his fellow echo choir singers — and the underlying movement which Ezra Klein battles for — he would never expect a good faith interaction with Klein on any topic that touches upon the dogma of the radical left.

Discussions of Race and IQ Reach the NYT OpEd Page

Perhaps partially because Sam Harris opened the door by his willingness to speak with Charles Murray, Scientist David Reich recently published an op-ed on the topic of genetics and race in the New York Times.

A recent study led by the economist Daniel Benjamin compiled information on the number of years of education from more than 400,000 people, almost all of whom were of European ancestry. After controlling for differences in socioeconomic background, he and his colleagues identified 74 genetic variations that are over-represented in genes known to be important in neurological development, each of which is incontrovertibly more common in Europeans with more years of education than in Europeans with fewer years of education. __ David Reich in NYT

Notice that the Harvard geneticist Reich is focusing more on genes, rather than race, and his short piece is full of leftist virtue signaling to prevent any blue on blue friendly fire. But Ezra Klein the journolister cannot allow any honest objectivity at all to enter into the discussion, and must always go full-pit bull savagery when “principles are at stake.”

Ezra Klein himself has been taken to task for his patent dishonesty and disingenuousness on this topic, but Klein has the cover of the entire radical left talking point journolist to cover his back.

Andrew Sullivan is another writer who has weighed in on the discussion in favour of greater openness and less censorship. But the echo choir will have none of that, if the comments following Sullivan’s piece are any indication.

The Left Cannot Afford Any Heretical Dissent At All

Anyone who breaks with the radical left’s talking points — in all their changing tortuosity — will be broken and ruined, if at all possible. Even if — as in Orwell’s 1984 — the sacred dogma changes from day to day, from moment to moment, any divergence from the dogma can result in severe penalties including outright blackballing and blacklisting. Careers are often ruined, sometimes with deadly outcomes. But the radical left journolisters could not care less about the unfortunate outcomes of their malicious, dishonest, and totally orchestrated attacks.

And That is Why Sam Harris is Bleeding First Blood

Until Harris wakes up to the true nature of the battle he has unwittingly found himself fighting in, he will be at a deadly disadvantage. If he believes his honest adherence to the rules of evidence and logic will earn him good faith treatment from Ezra Klein and the echo choir singers and journolist cabal, he is sadly mistaken.

These people will fight a malicious, totally scripted fight to take him down — unless he recants, and begins virtue signaling once again to the satisfaction of the overlords and gatekeepers.

Jordan Peterson is Thriving So Far Despite the Cabal

Sam Harris has some fundamental disagreements with Jordan Peterson on topics of evidence and truth, but thanks to Harris’ opening of a new round of public discussions on race and IQ, he finds himself on the same side of the echo choir’s attack as Peterson.

It is interesting that Sam Harris is scheduled to appear with Jordan Peterson on at least 2 or 3 occasions during Peterson’s ongoing world tour throughout this spring and summer. Perhaps Jordan can share a few secrets with Sam on how to thrive despite (or because of) attacks from radical leftists. One of the first things Sam might do is to lose his virginal naivety, stop whining about being treated unfairly by clearly dishonest leftists, and to understand how seriously he has gotten himself enmeshed in this particular battle of the long culture war. He crossed the Rubicon for reasons of his own, and he needs to learn how to move on from there as a man.

More:

Sam Harris’ Personal Growth

It was a different Sam Harris who hosted Charles Murray on that fateful podcast. In the prelude, Harris mentions that despite his reluctance to open the Pandora’s box of race and IQ, he felt compelled to do so at the sight of the violent mob attack against Charles Murray at Middlebury College.

Previously, Sam Harris had seemingly relied on a smirking, arrogant, cavalier attack on any person or idea that took his (anti-) fancy. This more thoughtful Sam Harris who speaks with Charles Murray — and who will also hopefully show up on Jordan Peterson’s world tour — is a more sympathetic character, capable of attracting a broader following than he has managed up to this point.

Watch and learn.

Posted in Genetics and Gene Expression, IQ, Philosophy | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Mike and Jordan: Unlikeliest Revolutionaries

Mike Rowe and Jordan Peterson are two of the unlikeliest revolutionaries that you can meet. Both born into relatively humble circumstances, each followed diverse and unlikely paths to become North American icons-in-revolt against the modern tyranny of incompetence — especially the destructive incompetence displayed in the “university perversion.”

Mike Rowe
Wikipedia


Mike Rowe worked many humble jobs before getting his break in the entertainment industry as an opera singer. From there he became a TV host on a number of different types of television venues. He is most famous for his work on “Dirty Jobs,” a reality TV show that formerly aired on Discovery Channel television. On that popular show he visited hundreds of small private businesses that performed work from pumping septic tanks to neutering male lambs.

Mike would become known as “the dirtiest man on TV.” He traveled to all 50 states and completed 300 different jobs, transforming cable television into a landscape of swamps, sewers, ice roads, coal mines, oil derricks, crab boats, hillbillies, and lumberjack camps. For this, he has received both the credit and the blame. __ About Mike Rowe

After several seasons, the show was cancelled and Mike Rowe decided to go full-time in promoting the skilled trades — where millions of jobs are available but go unfilled every year. The mikeroweWorks foundation promotes the skilled trades and provides scholarships to students who pursue the trades.

Now, Mike Rowe works hard to convince young people — especially young men — of the largely unheralded benefits of bypassing an expensive and uncertain college education so as to discover work that is potentially more lucrative, rewarding — and certainly more immediate — with much less debt. At the same time he works with corporate, education, and government entities in the attempt to bring the focus of training and education back to a more balanced perspective — and away from the ruinously destructive “college for all” attitude that has seduced so much of the culture to the tune of $1.3 trillion in college loan debt, and a skills gap that threatens to cripple even the best attempts to re-vitalise North American economies.

Make no mistake, Mike Rowe is a revolutionary promoting a saner, a more skilled, less indebted, and a less credential-overloaded society. Making young people more independent, competent, and prosperous is in these days a truly revolutionary pursuit.

Jordan Peterson
Wikipedia


Jordan Peterson was raised in the middle of small-town Alberta, worked a number of humble jobs in his youth, and began his college studies in political science — hoping to be able to make the world a better place via politics. He soon discovered that if he was going to make the world a better place, he would need to help individual people find their ways to being better people. To that end he pursued graduate studies in psychology at McGill, taught and researched at Harvard, then became a full time professor of psychology at U. of Toronto.

His 15 year research into a deep understanding of the roots of human longing, misery, meaning, and satisfaction, culminated in his first book, Maps of Meaning. His lecture series, Maps of Meaning, is available for free viewing anytime on YouTube.

If not for the ill-advised Bill C-16 amendment to the Canadian Human Rights Act — which mandates permissible speech in an arbitrary manner with potentially draconian punishments if not followed — Professor Peterson would likely have finished his career without significant controversy or fame. In September of 2016, Peterson began speaking out against this unprecedented perversion of English Common Law in a series of videotapes. The rest is history.

Jordan Peterson was catapulted into the awareness of the global public at large, by viral YouTube videos showing him confront social justice warrior protests, by his interviews with YouTube hosts Joe Rogan and Dave Rubin, and especially by his masterful interview on UK Channel 4 featuring feminist host Cathy Newman.

His recent book 12 Rules for Life has been a bestseller for several weeks now, and his world speaking tour appearances sell out almost as quickly as ticket sales are announced.

Why is Peterson a Revolutionary?

The video above provides some hints as to how Jordan Peterson is beginning to use his newly-broadened voice to convince young people to reject the dominant politically correct indoctrination so commonly found at universities, and choose the path of personal integrity and growth, using independent thought to discover their own personal ways to change themselves first — and then to make the world better.

Jordan Peterson — like the true clinical psychologist that he is — is working to help individuals to gain personal wisdom and strength. From there, they can move into the larger world to have a more benevolent influence than they would have had otherwise.

Make no mistake, this type of thinking is truly revolutionary, and is seen as such by leftist institutions in media, government, university, and beyond. The broader hearing such a message receives, the potentially greater an impact Peterson can have against the radical leftist crusade of death.

Both Rowe and Peterson are Revolutionaries — Each in His Own Way

By pointing to alternative paths through life than mainstream conformity, both Rowe and Peterson point young people toward more authentic and rewarding lives. To the vicious overlords of the toxic left, that represents heretical revolution.

If you personally would like to see a more expansive and abundant human future, there are many ways you can have a profound impact in the fight against the die-off mentality of the modern left — from opposing the climate apocalypse cult to disrupting anti-western “multiculturalists” to triggering the “equity fanatics” to active opposition of every other toxic tentacle of the deadly hydra.

Consider VHEMT:

The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement (VHEMT[A]) is an environmental movement that calls for all people to abstain from reproduction to cause the gradual voluntary extinction of humankind. _VHEMT

VHEMT represents what most of the various aspects of the radical left is aiming for — it is simply more honest about it than most activists, politicians, media celebrities, academics, financiers, and other largely behind-the-scenes operatives of the radical left.

Fighting VHEMT is easy — encourage young people to develop themselves from an early age, to achieve personal and financial independence, and to find reliable and loyal partners to raise large and Dangerous families.

In fact, that approach to changing the world will work on many of the battlegrounds on which human optimists find themselves facing the die-off mentality of the left.

Other, more covert approaches can be discussed in a more private setting. Above all, abstain from violence, outright lies, and destructive action and rhetoric — if at all possible. When faced by an angry mob of Antifa mobsters wielding chains, bats, and pepper spray, survival is paramount.

First, work on yourself. If you want to participate effectively in the revolution, you will need to understand yourself as deeply as possible. Be authentic, find as many ways to be true to yourself and those close to you, as possible. Make yourself very Dangerous.

Posted in Canada, careers, Competence, Jordan Peterson | Tagged | 1 Comment

First Educate the Child to Thrive in the World

Then if He Wants More Schooling, He Can Pay for It

An education into broad personal competence has nothing to do with a college education. College is “schooling,” and most modern degrees in the US are less valuable than a roll of toilet paper — in terms of added knowledge and competence. For most US college degrees, the only benefit is the credential itself — and credential inflation in college degrees assures an ever diminishing return as the years pass.

Does It Matter What College a Student Attends?

If a Dangerous Child decides to continue his schooling via college, will he benefit by going to an exclusive, elitist, expensive private college instead of going to a less expensive state college?

Where You Go to College Doesn’t Matter

The author in the piece above provides a sound argument for the case that less expensive schools provide better value — in terms of education. It is the student who educates himself, not the professors and TAs.

A bright, disciplined student who avails himself of library and internet resources in an efficient way, will learn far more at an inexpensive school than the average student in more expensive schools who too often count on professors to teach them — and rely on paper credentials to get them through life. This is particularly true in the age of credential bloat and administrative bloat — where the lion’s share of tuition increases go toward costly facilities and programs which have nothing to do with the student’s educational needs or future life prospects.

Dangerous Children Master at Least 3 Paths to Financial Independence by Age 18

An 18 year old with three distinct career competencies, a high school degree, and business skills via actual experience — plus half the credits required to graduate from most colleges before ever setting foot on a college campus — is in a position of strength when deciding his future career direction. This is one of the gifts we give the Dangerous Child, which is incalculably more valuable than any amount of phony self-esteem or ginned up self-righteousness of social justice warrior-children clogging the grounds of many of the US’ schooling providers.

Warning: Credential Bloat Ahead!

In the US, due to credential bloat and degree inflation, the value of a modern 4 year college degree is barely equivalent to the former value of a high school degree a few decades ago in terms of job requirements. At this rate, a masters degree will soon be the equivalent of today’s bachelor’s degree, and so on through time. Students do not become more competent for the inflated degrees, they are merely following the signals being sent to them by society so that they can qualify for employment in the future.

During the most dynamic years of economic growth in the US, educational requirements beyond the 8th grade were virtually unknown. Most 8th grade graduates of the time were far better educated than almost all of today’s high school graduates and college students.

Since that time, K-12 schools have become required centres of incarceration, indoctrination, and bad habit inculcation, with virtually no value added to the child. As a result, today’s colleges are forced to spend great time and effort to bring the reading and numeracy skills of freshmen and sophomores up to the minimal levels needed for mediocre college performance.

Credential bloat and degree inflation simply extends the charade to “higher levels” of farce, requiring ever more years of a young person’s life, and ever more $tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt.

It Is Never Too Late to Have a Dangerous Childhood

If you are getting the impression that US students are being suckered by a corrupt schooling establishment from K thru University, you are perceiving the reality correctly. The problem will never be solved until parents take their kids out of the system and provide them with alternative — and more substantive — pathways to knowledge and competency.

Your passivity in the face of this corrupt monstrosity will eventually convert into future difficulties for your children, and perhaps ultimate failure. The ongoing weakness, superficiality, and indebtedness of society at large is due to the poor preparation for life that has been given to US students for several decades now. Stop feeding the problem.

Posted in Dangerous Child, Education, University | Tagged | 1 Comment

Maximum Impact: Change the World Part III

Global Change via Dangerous Childraising

Emerging from under today’s youth cohorts of “angry little pixies” and building to future cohorts of Dangerous Children, will take time and effort. Contemporary youth and young adults are determined to “never grow up,” to never have children, to never take responsibility for their lives and futures, and to never willingly face real problems and accept the inevitable suffering of life in order to become competent members of a society of cooperating adults.

Dangerous Children Think and Act Independently

In contrast to the angry little pixies of today’s high school and college campuses, Dangerous Children do not require daily talking points or top-down directives from shadowy political activist groups. Dangerous Children think their own thoughts, make their own decisions, and act out their own plans to their own purposes and goals.

What Would a World of Dangerous Children Look Like?

Imagine a world of broadly competent people, everywhere you look. Dangerous Children master at least 3 means of financial independence by the age of 18 years, understand investment and finance, can start and operate multiple businesses, and have the equivalent knowledge of a college diploma before most of today’s perpetual pixie adolescents graduate from high school.

Dangerous Children do not require government handouts or entitlements for themselves or their families. What would the advanced nations of Europe and the Anglosphere do with the exponentially skyrocketing amounts of resources they currently spend on entitlements?

US Entitlements Projections
http://www.duffysoapbox.com/?p=3433

A society of Dangerous Children would require far fewer prisons, smaller systems of law enforcement, a fraction as many attorneys, and significantly fewer government bureaucrats.

A Dangerous Child society would also allow for the reduction in size of active duty military forces, since the US would naturally adopt a system closer to the Swiss or Israeli armed citizen force model.

Intermediate Preparation: Less than The Dangerous Child but Much Better than the Angry Pixies of Today

There are many approaches to educating and raising children which represent significant improvements over modern schools and methods — but are not at the same level of life preparation as The Dangerous Child Method.

  • Dr. Jordan Peterson‘s approach as set forth in his book “12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos,” and in his many online videos, provides one such intermediate approach to improving the preparation for life of children and youth.

    Dr. Peterson’s team is working on a high school version of his “self-authoring suite,” for example. When combined with the use of Peterson’s “Understand Myself” software, the coming self-authoring suite for youngsters should provide both the child and his coaches/caretakers with an invaluable head start in understanding his own strengths, weaknesses, motivations, and most promising goals.

  • The “Robinson Homeschool Curriculum” by Dr. Arthur Robinson, provides many excellent approaches to education at early and middle levels — not least of which are habits of self-learning that are instilled into children at an early age. In addition, youth who follow this curriculum are likely to require only 2 years of on-campus studies to achieve a 4-year bachelor’s degree.
  • The Forest School system has been around for over 100 years, but is just now hitting its stride. Currently focused on early childhood education, Forest Schools have the potential to be expanded through high school at least, if not further.
  • There are a number of colleges that provide educations tuition-free. Students work at various on-campus jobs for 10 to 15 hours a week in addition to a full load of classes.

    There are also boarding high schools that offer similar programs, including some that provide experience working on farms or ranches — although not nearly as many such schools exist as once did.

  • Tuition free online public schools. These schools often provide a wide range of class offerings not available at most on-site schools. If parents provide proper guidance — and teach children to teach themselves early in the process — such online schools allow children and youth to also develop many of the Dangerous Skills that are cultivated and mastered by Dangerous Children.

A society whose children are trained in such intermediate-style regimens of education and self orientation would certainly find itself better prepared to face the inevitable uncertainties of the world than current western societies find themselves.

Too many colleges and high schools are becoming glorified day care for perpetual adolescents, places of political indoctrination, and centres for the development of destructive habits.

In a society of Dangerous Children, there would be no such thing as “high schools” as we know them, and far fewer and far smaller bricks and mortar colleges and universities — since young people can learn everything they need in the humanities over the internet and via immersion travel learning. Dangerous Children 12 years of age would be far better educated than most of today’s high school graduates, and better educated than large numbers of college graduates — in terms of genuine real world applicable knowledge and insight.

Changing the World via Dangerous Childraising Takes Time

The process is time consuming because the value added to Dangerous Children is considerable. Raising independent thinkers and actors requires a far different approach than the factory-style public indoctrination systems and child-raising practises of neglect so prominent in western countries.

Over time, as citizens within the emerging Dangerous Society begin to evaluate the sharp reductions in public expenditures for entitlements, civil service salaries and pensions, justice system costs, and armed forces expenses, and overall rising levels of prosperity, it will dawn on most people that such an approach to changing society is very potent indeed, given the time and commitment.

Posted in Competence, Dangerous Child | Tagged | 2 Comments

Maximum Impact: Change the World Part II

Global Change via Disruptive Innovation

Since the year 1500, Europe has spawned scientific/technological/industrial revolutions that have generated endless streams of disruptive innovations. Those revolutions were made possible by European tools of global exploration and global conquest. And all of that was made possible by European (and Jewish diaspora) tools of finance, banking, and trade. This tsunami of European disruption was the product of thousands of individuals, and was ultimately built upon work done by ancient Greeks, Hindus, Egyptians, Babylonians, and persons living under the Muslim conquest. All of that is a daunting foundation on which to build noticeable disruptive change.

Most of the things held up as disruptive innovations by today’s popular media are nothing of the sort, but are rather bits of gaudy glitz to amuse the naive and credulous.

For one man to change the world today via disruptive innovation, he would need to reach deeply within the human psyche and/or the human experience, and alter something truly fundamental.

Making humans smarter, stronger, quicker, healthier, more resilient to injury or illness, longer-lived, less needful of sleep/rest/external nutrients, etc., would lead to disruptive consequences far beyond what a “smarter smart phone” or a better autonomous electric car might generate.

Tools that allow humans to live well and prosper despite efforts by oppressive ideologies and tyrannical governments to enslave, control, or destroy them, could also be seen as disruptive in a world where weapons of mass destruction and mass control are proliferating widely — including to multiple rogue states and ideological non-state actors.

Global Change via Information Control

“Information control” is another term for brainwashing, mass propaganda, or indoctrination. This approach to achieving global change was a mainstay of the USSR and other totalitarian states — and is the main tool of the ideologues who promote post-modernist nihilism.

But as long as contrary voices survive who can put the lie to mainstream propaganda, the indoctrination method for achieving global change will be vulnerable to contradiction by reality and alternative voices. The collapse of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact in the face of the superior prosperity and freedom of action found in the west, exposes the vulnerability of this approach.

Today’s postmodern nihilism faces the same eternal threat of contradiction, and is supremely vulnerable to being ultimately overthrown by other voices. Perhaps that is why postmodernists try so hard to crush and shout down voices which carry even the slightest hint of “heresy.”

Global Change via Narrative and “the Arts”

Great works of fiction often contain deep and mythic power to change the way one thinks. Superb writing will generate persistent memes and metaphors upon which readers may build further thought structures and life patterns over time — and sometimes thought structures that last for generations.

Bad fiction and overtly propagandist fiction tend to lack the punch and the staying power of great fiction, hence the general cultural impoverishment under the USSR and the Warsaw Pact (and other totalitarian regimes).

Great music can set the mood of an era, providing uplift to the reason and creativity of intelligent and creative populations — such as those found in Europe during the eras of baroque and classical music.

Not-so-great “music” such as hip hop can exert an equally strong downward push to the emotions and impulses of populations that score low in intelligence, executive functions, and impulse control.

Great plays and films contain mythic power similar to great written narratives, and speak to the deeper and more persistent truths within the experiences of viewers. Propagandist plays and films of totalitarian states do not tend to survive so well over time.

Global Change via Procreation

Genghis Khan and a handful of other men, left outsized genetic legacies via procreation. By changing the genetic complement of future human populations, one necessarily would change future human predispositions and ultimately change the outcomes of many actions — some large and some small.

This type of change is of the “hit or miss” variety, however, and not necessarily likely to bring about positive change. Nevertheless, the best approach in today’s world for spreading one’s seed far and wide to maximum impact, would be to open a worldwide chain of affordable sperm banks. Depending upon your physical characteristics, you may be able to generate worldwide demand for your product.

Most Types of Change Makes Things Worse

Complex evolved systems tend to be resistant to change. Forced change often leads to breakdowns rather than improved performance.

In biological evolution, most mutations are thought to be neutral, many are demonstrably harmful, and a very few mutations can be shown to be beneficial. More

It is almost impossible to improve the human genome at this stage in our understanding, but quite easy to make the genome more dysfunctional. Scientists tend to be very conservative about making permanent changes to human genomes, given the risks involved.

Similar rules of risk apply when making extreme and arbitrary changes to evolved cultural systems — although today’s postmodern social engineers scoff at the suggestion that they may be clearing the ground for near-future catastrophes and genocides.

Still, there is something about the blithe nihilism of our postmodern overlords which makes me somewhat uneasy. 😉

Global Change: Best to Live Outside It?

It is certainly best to avoid most popular manias and fads, as Twitter and Facebook are demonstrating. But sometimes manias and fads achieve global proportions, and expand to the point that outsiders are squeezed into smaller and smaller spaces of viability.

Picture yourself driving drowsily down a river road, when suddenly you wake up immersed in freezing cold water. Your car is filling up, and the pocket of breathable air is getting smaller and smaller. You must take advantage of this shrinking space to store away a minute’s worth of air so that you can make your escape from your car, to the surface of the water outside. If you are not alone in the car, the diminishing amount of residual air must provide for multiple escapes — perhaps under very difficult psychological conditions such as panic.

It is merely an analogy, but one which may convey the sense of urgency which can build under conditions of progressively dysfunctional prescriptions for change in a society.

For every person with a viable plan to make things better, there are dozens of people with certifiable plans to make things much worse. And as we all know, the first step toward making things better is to stop making them worse.

So what does one do when most of the world’s money, political power, information media, educational systems, and other institutions, are dedicated to plans that are guaranteed to make the world worse?

Good Plans Without Good People Will Not Work

One must keep his eyes open to discover the good ideas and workable plans which do exist in the world. In addition, one must often work as a broker to match the good plans with the good people who are capable of implementing them.

Positive change is likely to take place despite all the concerted forces operating to limit independent action, thought, and change outside of officially approved channels. Powerful enough disruptions can clear new space for development. If such spaces are exploited quickly enough, it will be difficult for the forces of nihilism to stop them — particularly if the processes of developing new spaces have a side effect of clearing yet more space for development.

It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood ©.

Posted in Disruptive Technologies, Dysgenics | Tagged | Leave a comment

Maximum Impact: How One Man Could Change the World

Global Change via Religion/Philosophy

Looking at Moses, Jesus, the Buddha, Mohamed, and the Hindu legacies, one sees many long-term impacts of a global and quasi-global nature. Religion represents a deep and archetypal philosophy, which acts on multiple layers of the psyche.

The deeper the changes in the human psyche which can be made — particularly over a span of many generations — the greater the likely consequential changes in human history.

More superficial philosophers, who appeal merely to logic and reason, tend not to understand the deeper layers of human reality. As a result of their lack of comprehension, their work tends to have a more limited impact on human history. The exception to that rule is when particular strains of philosophy — superficial on their own — are built upon and refined over many generations. If the more refined strains of thought are bundled into more robust and comprehensive schools of thought — they may ultimately result in powerful philosophical systems that birth potent offspring such as the Jeffersonians or the Marxists.

Global Change via Education

Education is underwritten by philosophy — and often by religion. Education takes many forms, formal and informal. Formal education builds the intellectual and pseudo-intellectual classes, while informal education builds the working classes and the skilled classes. Overemphasis on formal education at the expense of informal education leads to a top-heavy society of faux elites, which almost always exerts a subversive force on guiding traditions.

Negative change via education is quite easy, and such change can be easily seen in modern practises of education at all levels — from K thru university. Negative change is easy, since it is always easier to make a system worse than to make it better.

Positive and lasting change via education is difficult, since one confronts the “chicken and egg” problem immediately and throughout the enterprise.

First, Stop Making Things Worse!

One starts making a horrible system better by stopping the processes that continually make it worse.

Ultimately, achieving the most positive change through education requires better parents, better teachers, better systems of teaching and learning, better systems of apprenticeship, better occupational and professional systems, and better societies as a whole for producing better students and receiving better graduates. But one must begin somewhere, and the best way is to cut out the tumour, drain the pus, neutralise the poison — stop making things worse!!!

That is the key to making today’s world better via education. One must starve the self-perpetuating system that keeps making everything worse. Jordan Peterson has a number of ideas — including exposing the parts of modern universities which are making everything worse, and helping students to route their educations around the ugly parts.

He has also given some thought to starting his own online university:

It is true that everything a person needs to be well-educated in a formal sense, can be found at a good public library. Similarly, one can also find what one needs on the internet, if he knows where to look.

Perhaps one might change the world merely by pointing out the parts of the mainstream that one should avoid, and highlighting the freely available resources that one can readily make use of. But one would need a very prominent soapbox to scratch the surface of that challenge.

Spending hundreds of $thousands going to university to study the humanities or social sciences is not only unnecessary, it is potentially crippling over one’s lifetime. $Trillions of fruitless debt is a way to make the world worse, not better.

Global Change via Politics/War

Who had the greatest long term impact on the world: Thomas Jefferson or Karl Marx? It is too early to say, but over the past 100 years, the republic spawned by Jefferson has become the world’s economic and military superpower, while most “nations” spawned by Marx have collapsed in seas of blood and/or ruin. China, after rejecting Mao’s brand of Marx, cannot be considered Marxist any longer. Vietnam is likewise moving away from its North Vietnamese communist ideological origins in order to fend off China’s aggressive advances.

Marx still has great appeal to power-mongers around the globe, but his track record in real world political experiments has been deplorable.

Relatively recent megalomaniacs who chose the path of war include Napoleon, Hitler, the Japanese militarists of the 1920s/1930s, and Mussolini. But aside from Napoleonic law, their impacts have been transient, and swept back by subsequent history.

Lasting Global Change Incorporates Multiple Paths

Lasting change must be deep and wide. Most forms of change are quickly and easily reversible. All forms of human change are ultimately reversible — other than total extinction.

Coincidentally, it almost seems self-evident that the goal of post-modernism — the political ideology that rules most western universities, media outlets, governments, foundations, and other prominent cultural institutions — is to foment the nihilist extinction of any possible abundant and expansive human future.

When seen in that way, we have some important choices to make.

Posted in Jordan Peterson, Philosophy, Politics, Ritual and Tradition | Tagged , | 1 Comment

China Loses Market Share… And Workers

China is no longer the manufacturer of first resort for a growing number of western importers. China is losing market share to upstarts, newcomers, and old grizzled rivals such as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.

China is losing market share not only to cheaper, younger countries like Vietnam. It is also ceding ground to greyer, costlier rivals like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. __ Economist

In fact, China is losing market share to many more countries than the few mentioned above:

At the beginning of this century, about 90 percent of apparel sold at Walmarts was made in China. By the end of 2012, that balance between China and the rest of the world essentially reversed. Then, my wife, surveying our local Walmart, found that every item of the store’s house brand, George, was made in Bangladesh. Simply Basic sleepwear came from Cambodia. Items with the Hanes label were stitched together in Guatemala and El Salvador. Wrangler jeans were imported from Nicaragua, and Fruit of the Loom clothes came in from Honduras. Danskin garments? They were made in the Middle East and Africa: Jordan, Egypt, and Kenya. __ Losing the Trade

China is known as the country that cheats, steals, pirates, and lies in all aspects of trade. As the cost of Chinese labour rises, increasingly bad karma is likely to descend on the middle kingdom.

And China is Losing Workers


Demographic change can alter a nation’s destiny like no other factor.

China’s working age population will fall 5% by 2030, a decline that is inevitable because the workers of 2030 have all been born already. It is likely to fall by a further 20% by mid-century as China “gets old before it gets rich.” By the end of the century China’s population might fall to as low as 600 million, and will certainly be less than 1 billion. Demographic decline will soon become a serious drag on economic growth. __ https://www.forbes.com/sites/salvatorebabones/2017/12/31/china-max-how-demography-economics-and-geography-will-combine-to-limit-chinas-growing-power/#442a4fa06433

Domestic Tranquility Depends Upon Rising Prosperity

For nearly 40 years up to 2008, a boom in foreign investment and technology transfer led to a massive boom in China’s exports and cash reserves. But for the past 10 years, at least half of China’s “prosperity” has relied upon a swelling tide of debt and credit stimulus. The borrow-build-demolish-borrow-rebuild-demolish cycle can only carry China to the point that the house of cards begins to collapse.

China’s massive foreign projects and grandiose military schemes depend upon continuing domination of global exports and trade. But a “perfect storm” of contrary winds could as easily capsize the entire armada of treasure ships.

China Does Not Need a Trade War at this Time

China has relied upon hugely advantageous trade terms with overseas partners for decades now. Thanks to massive foreign investment, foreign technology transfer — and larcenous trade advantages — China has built huge trade surpluses. But that was not enough, so China also cheated, stole, pirated, and otherwise poisoned many streams of trade — not to mention all the shoddy steel and concrete.

Western countries can build factories in many different low-wage nations, and can invest in Mexico or Bangladesh as easily as in China.

On the other side of the coin, the promise of Chinese markets has always been oversold. Ask any number of western nations that have built in-country infrastructure to supply Chinese markets how it feels when they are pushed out of China by locals with political connections and easy credit. Fool’s gold.

… labor costs are just one problem foreign firms face. Regulatory challenges are another. Survey respondents bemoaned unclear laws, difficulty in obtaining required licenses, and increased Chinese protectionism. __ Source

Global Markets are In Play

Take nothing for granted — especially conventional wisdom. Everything changes, and everything you are told is a lie.

Rigid and corrupt tyrannies spend massive amounts of money on propaganda and internal security. Unrest and insurrection are only a heartbeat away, when the fate of the entire nation rests upon just one man.

More:

Check out this review of the new documentary The China Hustle. Choose not to be a China sucker any longer.

Posted in China, Demographics, Economics | Tagged | 2 Comments

Violent Crime: Inequality vs. the “Hip Hop Effect”

Inequality and Violent Crime

Leaving aside the question of “violent genes” for now, we will look at some environmental contributors to violent crime which may be more subject to influence. One of the most prominent social factors that has been linked to violent crime for several decades is “inequality of wealth/income.”

A good analysis of the correlation between violent crime and wealth inequality is the 2002 research article titled “Crime & Inequality,” found on the World Bank website (PDF). The authors fall just short of claiming causation in the relationship between inequality of wealth/income and violent crime.

Below are two excerpts from the paper’s conclusions:


The authors admit that they were unable to determine why inequality led to more violent crime — a shortcoming of the paper which they labeled “the first shortcoming.” The second shortcoming, described in the following excerpt, is perhaps more telling.

A curious and under-examined finding of the paper is that it found no significant association between a society’s rates of violent crime… and its mean level of income, average education levels of adults, and the degree of urbanisation in the society.

Perhaps the greatest weakness of the paper is the failure to clearly distinguish between the effects of “inequality of income,” and “inequality of wealth” — a crucial distinction in forming a deep enough understanding of this association to be able to do anything about it. They also failed to examine the phenomenon of “pseudo-wealth,” where persons “max out” all forms of credit to provide a display of wealth, when in fact they are deeply indebted.

A Contradiction to the Rule?

Since the above paper was written, much of Latin America has experienced higher levels of violence along with reductions of poverty combined with sustained growth and less inequality. When researchers examined the data at more local levels within Mexico, for example, they found that cities with lower levels of inequality displayed lower rates of crime. In other words, the correlation between inequality and violence seemed to hold at the level of the municipality, even if it did not hold at the national level.

It is important to examine phenomena and their correlations at the appropriate level — a rule which researchers in the social and economic sciences often fail to comply with, or even to understand.

The “locality of crime” makes it mandatory to focus upon the specific levels of action and association. For example, comparing “high crime” and “low crime” areas of the same city can be instructive:

Even in the lower income areas of the above cities — which display higher crime rates — the income supports provided by welfare benefits place residents at relatively affluent levels when compared with the vast majority of humans on planet Earth. But that is not the appropriate comparison. Criminals tend to “act locally,” and that truism is particularly true of the vast majority of criminals who may be driven by personal impressions of “inequality.”

But “Inequality” is Only One Driver of Violent Crime

The scientific literature displays a robust association between violence and inequality — at least on specific levels of examination. But most homicides take place between “peers,” where “inequality” is minimised. Something besides mere perceived inequality of wealth/income is clearly involved in most homicides — although not all (homicides during a robbery etc.).

Since most homicides are between relative peers in the heat of the moment, emotional factors which have little or nothing to do with inequality of wealth/income seem to come into play. Such emotional factors tend to “ebb and flow” like the tides, and are themselves influenced by moment to moment events that occur within the immediate environment.

The Oppressive Social Tyranny of Hip Hop

There are many ways by which a person can become enslaved to something outside himself. Drug addicts are slaves, as are alcoholics and habitual tobacco smokers. In fact, there are many ways in which each of us is ensnared and enslaved within intricate webs of habit and dependency — most of which we remain entirely ignorant.

Within various communities — particularly of youth — a form of entertainment known as “hip hop” or “rap” has insinuated itself deeply. Because hip hop “sets a mood” which is fully capable of influencing impulsive actions, it should be examined clearly and deeply.

Below is one examination of hip hop by an African American author and student of culture, John McWhorter.

By reinforcing the stereotypes that long hindered blacks, and by teaching young blacks that a thuggish adversarial stance is the properly “authentic” response to a presumptively racist society, rap retards black success.

… The venom that suffuses rap had little place in black popular culture—indeed, in black attitudes—before the 1960s. The hip-hop ethos can trace its genealogy to the emergence in that decade of a black ideology that equated black strength and authentic black identity with a militantly adversarial stance toward American society. In the angry new mood, captured by Malcolm X’s upraised fist, many blacks (and many more white liberals) began to view black crime and violence as perfectly natural, even appropriate, responses to the supposed dehumanization and poverty inflicted by a racist society.__ John McWhorter in City Journal

In other words, for young blacks in their formative years, an immersion in hip hop shapes their identities in thuggish and violent form, in a quasi-normative manner. In other words, to someone raised within a mental environment flooded by hip hop, being black is to be a violent thug. The result of this “child-raising by rap” can be seen in the graph below:


There is no need to invoke any “genetics of black violence” to begin to understand why violent crime rates are so much higher in particular cities — and particular neighborhoods and parts of town — than in other cities or neighborhoods which display different population characteristics.

Inequality vs. Inequality ad Infinitum

The correlation between wealth/income inequality and rates of violent crime is considered to be strong and established in the social sciences. As a result, a majority of social institutions in western OECD nations have begun to bend themselves into extreme pretzel shapes to try to achieve an “equality of outcome” for income/wealth — without actually understanding the deep realities and multiplicities of “equality.” Equality of opportunity and equality of enforced outcomes — as well as equality before the law — must all be distinguished and placed in their proper levels of importance.

But those are just a few of the many potential equalities and inequalities that exist in the social and physical realities we inhabit.

The numbers of possible inequalities between individuals are essentially infinite. The ultimate basis of interpersonal inequality rests within the complex networks of genes and gene expression. Such networks are subject to infinite variability.

But genes and networks of gene expression must operate within the environments of the physical world, which themselves display almost infinite variability. Throw in the infinite variability of the mental and emotional worlds that we all inhabit, and one discovers that achieving “equality” between individuals in any meaningful sense of the word, is impossible.

And so we see our societies wrapped around perverse and impossible goals of dubious relevance, dissipating precious resources on futile and vacuous quests, while an expansive and abundant human future waits within our reach — and just outside our grasp.

It is, after all, the expansive and abundant human future — the next level — which offers the greatest hope for providing the only kind of equality that really matters. An equal opportunity for the potential fulfillment of our true — but almost entirely unknown — inner selves.

But why wait? We could begin work on developing our inner selves by rejecting ideology and pursuing the depths of understanding on multiple levels. Society at large will fight you at every turn, but the more persons who become engaged in this vital pursuit, the less power “society” will have over them.

Posted in Crime | Tagged | 3 Comments

Why is Latin America So Violent?

Top 10 National Homicide Rates per Million Persons

It is important to look at national homicides both as a rate — see above — and in total — see below. By either measure, Latin American nations have significant representation in top 10 murder-by-nation statistics. Looking at rates per million or rates per hundred thousand allows a fair comparison of nations with small populations against nations with large populations.

Top 10 Homicide Raw Count by Nation

Global Homicide Rate Map

Portraying national homicide rates on a global map allows for a more visual comparison, which is sometimes easier to understand on a visceral level.

Global Murder Rate

Violent Crime Rates by City

Finally, looking at violent crime in general — on the city level — allows one to pinpoint foci of violence, and places that might best be avoided.

Why is Latin America so Violent?

Genetics of Violence Plus Environmental Factors

Genetics of violence

According to a meta-analysis on data from 24 genetically informative studies, up to 50% of the total variance in aggressive behavior is explained by genetic influences.

… Both our genotype and the environmental factors to which we are exposed to throughout life contribute to shaping our brain functions. Changes in the expression of specific genes in the brain -such as MAOA, DAT1 and DRS2- can affect neurotransmitter levels, which, in turn, influences complex functions such as intelligence, mood and memory. __ The Genetics of Violent Behavior

More

When the Spanish and Portuguese moved into Latin America, they came to plunder and enslave. The conquistadors represented some of the most rapacious and unscrupulous qualities within the Spanish culture of the time. Their genes, which helped support those character traits, were mixed with the genes of indigenous peoples — themselves not always the most placid of tribal people. In fact, the most dangerous period of the Americas was the time before the Europeans arrived.
More

Mixing the violent genes of the conquistadors and other early Spanish plunderers with the violent genes of indigenous American peoples would certainly have provided descendants with an abundance of violent genes from diverse sources.

Environmental Factors of Violence

In Latin America, violent crime is spurred by a multitude of environmental factors — including poverty, a macho culture of violence, high rates of illegitimacy, etc. But we should not overlook the drug trade, which channels large flows of cash to violent drug cartels and gangs from Colombia into Central America and the Caribbean, to Mexico and the US.

Consider the combined effects of violent genes with the many environmental factors predisposing to violence. Seen in that broader sense, perhaps it is not so difficult to understand why Latin America is so violent.

Sub Saharan Africa is not Chopped Liver

In the global violence sweepstakes, sub Saharan Africa has nothing to be ashamed of. In fact, if black African nations kept better crime statistics, it is likely that they would hold their own with Latin American nations. And we should not overlook the impact of the violent African genes that made their way to Latin America on slave ships of Spain and Portugal. Those genes are now firmly ensconced within populations of Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, and many nations of Central America and the Caribbean — nations that coincidentally have high rates of violent crime.

A quick glance at visual and tabular comparisons of national violent crime rates reveals the parallels between Latin America and black Africa in that regard.

What Should Be Done About High Crime Nations?

At the very least, immigration from such countries should be severely limited, by more advanced nations. All civilised methods for making life within the nations of origin more humane should be pursued — as long as such methods do not lead to population surges. In the end, every population must find its own level, which it is capable of sustaining on its own.

More extreme measures such as building walls around the most violent cities, or screening for violent genes and then attempting to limit procreation among such individuals, are unacceptable for many reasons.

Hope for the Best… Prepare for the Worst

Dangerous Children and Dangerous Communities will provide robust resilience and anti-fragility inside more advanced nations — and inside protected enclaves within emerging and less advanced nations. Ultimately, as the chaos unleashed by post-modern multicultural immigration policies unfolds, existing nations will collapse and divide, with significant areas of the world undergoing rapid and long-term change of control — or lacking significant control or rule of law altogether.

Eventually off-planet settlements and colonies are likely to spread out, and even more niches of the planet Earth will be settled by free people. Change is inevitable, but not doom.

Remember, it is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood © .

Posted in Crime, Demographics, Doom, Genetics and Gene Expression | Tagged | 2 Comments

Brazil Has Strong Gun Control — And Sky High Murder Rates

For Criminals, Guns Come Easy

Thanks to strict gun control laws, the ability of the average Brazilian to defend himself from more bloody-minded countrymen is limited. By absolute numbers of homicides, Brazil leads all other nations. 60,000 Brazilians were sent to early graves by murderous compatriots last year.

More Murders in Brazil Than All the Blue Countries Combined
http://metrocosm.com/homicides-brazil-vs-world/

“Everyday, everywhere you look, the criminal is armed with a high-powered weapon as the citizen tries to hide,” [lawmaker] Rogerio Peninha Mendonca … said in an interview. “What we want is for the citizen to be more capable of defending himself.”

… Forty-two percent of Brazilians believe gun ownership is a citizen’s right, according to a November survey by pollster Datafolha. That’s up from 30 percent four years earlier. And of the lower house lawmakers who have expressed opinions publicly, slightly more than half support the proposed legislation, according to a scoreboard maintained by Peninha’s staff.

Fellow lawmaker Bolsonaro, a former Army captain, has been preaching the gospel of gun rights as part of his law-and-order pitch to voters. In polls he trails only former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who will likely be barred from running. __ Bloomberg

Gun Control Crusaders Do Not Care if You Live or Die

Criminals can always get access to weapons — legal or not. Law abiding citizens are far more constrained in their actions, often leaving them at the mercy of armed criminals in gun control jurisdictions.

The gun control movement is just another way to transfer power over citizens’ lives from the people to the government — which has a legal monopoly over the use of force in most nations. In other words, their “compassion” is a mask for their control-lust and perverse need to dominate their fellow citizens.

7 Brutal Rules for Keeping Your Balance

Following the 7 Brutal Rules below is a link to the parent article which helps to explain the reasons for each.

  1. The average person cares more about what he eats for lunch than whether you live or die
  2. Life is not and will never be fair
  3. Most people are shallow
  4. The more comfortable you get, the worse your life is going to be
  5. The world will judge you based on what it can get out of you
  6. Nothing in life is permanent
  7. When you die, only a few people will continue to think of you after you’re gone
  8. ___ Source

John Hawkins, the author of the list and linked article above, is actually being very charitable to his fellow man. In the postmodern multicultural world of rabid political correctness and vicious left-wing racism and sexism, things are far worse than commonly understood — under the surface.

Jordan Peterson’s 12 Rules for Life Provide a Deeper Set of Guidelines and Perspectives

Jordan Peterson’s rules require hours of explanation, as they are highly metaphorical.

Rule 1 Stand up straight with your shoulders back

Rule 2 Treat yourself like you would someone you are responsible for helping

Rule 3 Make friends with people who want the best for you

Rule 4 Compare yourself with who you were yesterday, not with who someone else is today

Rule 5 Do not let your children do anything that makes you dislike them

Rule 6 Set your house in perfect order before you criticise the world

Rule 7 Pursue what is meaningful (not what is expedient)

Rule 8 Tell the truth – or, at least, don’t lie

Rule 9 Assume that the person you are listening to might know something you don’t

Rule 10 Be precise in your speech

Rule 11 Do not bother children when they are skate-boarding

Rule 12 Pet a cat when you encounter one on the street

__ As listed here

But once you have wrapped your head around the 12 rules above, you will recognise common ground between the two distinct sets of rules and facts above, and may better understand why ordinary citizens need to make themselves far more independent, and far more Dangerous, than the ruling leftist overlords of the post-modern age would like.

It is never too late for a Dangerous Childhood

Note: Brazil will never be Switzerland or pre-immigration Sweden. Different populations vary in genetically & environmentally influenced personality and temperament. Violence comes more naturally for some populations than for others. That is not the question. The problem is: how to maximise safety for those citizens who are law-abiding and peace-loving when they are surrounded by significant numbers of people who are prone to violence, theft, intimidation, and extortion? The solution seems to be to give them a reliable way to defend themselves against the violent and murderous bullies.

Posted in Competence, Crime, Philosophy, Weapons | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Russian Exports We Could Do Without

Rockets and Poisons

Ten days ago, the Kremlin leader sought to frighten the West with his new “super weapons” and his preparedness for nuclear war, Eidman says. Now, he “is frightening it with a mass poisoning in the center of Britain. All these things are links in one chain,” are of his effort to “hit at sanctions with rockets and poisons.” __ Igor Eidman via WOE2

We Were Warned 20 Years Ago

Chemical and biological weapons are more economical weapons of mass destruction than advanced nuclear weapons. And despite clear violations of multiple international treaties, Russia has apparently forged ahead in developing advanced lethal forms of chemical and biological warfare agents, along with advanced weapons delivery systems.

Regarding genetically engineered bio-weapons:

A defector from the former Soviet biological weapons program said in an interview today [FEB. 25, 1998] that Moscow’s cold war plans for World War III included preparing ”hundreds of tons” of anthrax bacteria and scores of tons of smallpox and plague viruses. __ NYT 25 Feb 1998

The development of more advanced chemical weapons has been stepped up by the Russian government in the past 10 years, along with the long-running gene-engineering bioweapons programs.

Since the start of Putin’s second term, a construction boom has been underway at more than two dozen institutes that were once part of the Soviet Union’s biological and chemical weapons establishment, according to Russian documents and photos compiled by independent researchers. That expansion, which includes multiple new or refurbished testing facilities, is particularly apparent at secret Defense Ministry laboratories that have long drawn the suspicions of U.S. officials over possible arms-treaty violations. __ WaPo 18March2018

Poisoning of Russian Double Agent in London Shines a Light

Russian nerve toxin “Novichok” was used against a former Russian spy in London recently. Repercussions from the incident are exploding across the WMD world, bringing unwanted attention once again to Russia’s rogue chemical and biological warfare programmes.

The UK Foreign Minister is claiming that Russia stockpiled large quantities of the Novichok agent, likely in preparation for attacks of an unknown nature. Since the Russians are denying any knowledge of Novichok, it looks as if the Kremlin has resurrected their old cold war playbook of “offend and deny.” The big lie, in other words.

One of the group of chemicals known as Novichoks – A-230 – is reportedly five to eight times more toxic than VX nerve agent.

“This is a more dangerous and sophisticated agent than sarin or VX and is harder to identify,” says Professor Gary Stephens, a pharmacology expert at the University of Reading. __ http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43377698

Rather than being an entirely new class of nerve agents, the Russian Novichok agent appears to be a more potent form of the parasympathetic agonist type of established nerve agents.

The Poor Man’s Weapons of Mass Destruction

Russia’s renewed devotion to the advancement of biological and chemical weaponry suggests that the Kremlin knows that it cannot economically maintain its nuclear threat to the previous levels as were maintained under the USSR. Saber rattlers in the new Russia must rely on a combination of vapourware, propaganda, an ageing nuclear arsenal, and budget-oriented chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction.

Oh, and one more thing. Cats’ paw proxy nuclear powers such as North Korea, Iran, and others to be announced, provide both Russia and China a level of “plausible deniability” in the case of a convenient crisis that suits their purposes. “Plausible” is in quotes, given the all too visible support provided by Russia and China to these rogue nuclear powers.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. The centres of release for chemical and biological massive scale weapons delivery systems would likely be large cities and strategic sites. A rogue nuclear attack by NoKo or Iran would just as likely be of an EMP variety, with most death and damage occurring within and around large cities.

Make your plans and provisions accordingly.

More:

Putin never learns

Never

And so the lost empire recedes ever farther into the dust of history

Twenty years after the Soviet Union collapsed, the Russian population implosion was getting worse. Currently Russia has the 11th largest economy in the world but without more investments (local or foreign) and fewer sanctions the economy will shrink (like the workforce, because couples are not having enough children).

It is not surprising that ethnic Russian birthrates are dropping, since the female cohort of child-bearing years has dropped off a cliff.

Posted in Military, Russia, Weapons | Tagged , | Leave a comment

China-Style Bridge Collapse in Florida Raises Questions

Something was clearly wrong with the bridge. An engineer for bridge contractor FIGG noticed cracks in the structure two days before the collapse. But his message was overlooked until the day after the collapse.

FIU Bridge Collapse Reminiscent of Multiple Chinese Collapse Events
Image : Reuters via ET

This Kind of Thing is Expected in China

In China, due to shoddy materials and construction methods, the collapse of new bridges, buildings, tunnels, and other constructions are near commonplace and often go virtually unreported. So when a China-style bridge collapse occurs outside of China, one naturally looks for any possible participation by Chinese companies in the construction process, or materials used.

Important Note: At the time of the collapse, stress testing of the new bridge was reportedly underway. This would have brought out any inherent weaknesses in the bridge structure. If this is true, it is unclear why traffic was not routed away from the bridge during the testing.

From a Few Minutes of Internet Fact-Checking

The designer and installer of the bridge, FIGG Bridge Group, has no obvious China connections, on the surface.

The company that constructed the bridge, Munilla Construction Management (MCM), is another story. MCM officials have been photographed with Yan Jiehe, the billionaire head of China’s huge Pacific Construction Group, while he was scouting US companies for acquisition.

[Paul] Manafort was helping China’s largest privately owned builder, Pacific Construction Group, identify U.S. construction firms it could acquire, including MCM, which has a multimillion-dollar Pentagon contract to develop a school for the U.S. Navy at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. A photograph shows Manafort and Yan Jiehe, the billionaire who heads Pacific, with Jorge and Fernando Munilla of the Miami-based construction firm. __ Source

Since MCM actually built the bridge — which was already displaying cracks days before the collapse — questions of possible shoddy materials must be asked. And “shoddy materials” are a hallmark of Chinese construction methods — including shoddy steel and shoddy concrete.

Who Supplied the Concrete for the FIU Bridge?

Mexican company CEMEX supplied the concrete for the collapsed bridge, and CEMEX has Chinese connections that go back several years.

CEMEX’s operations in China, Tianjin and Qingdao, were awarded the “China Top 10 Influential Ready-mix Concrete Enterprise in 2010” prize during a sustainable development forum that took place in Wuhan, Hubei Province. __ http://www2.cemex.com/MediaCenter/Story/Story20110103.aspx

Preliminary evidence is incomplete and circumstantial. It will take time to collect more information and to trace the current ownership information for both MCM and CEMEX — and the actual source for the specific concrete used in the FIU bridge construction. But all signs currently point toward shoddy construction methods and/or shoddy materials.

Update: Shoddy final assembly plus failure to re-route traffic away from ongoing construction and testing are both coming into focus as proximal causes of the death and destruction at FIU. Watch this video (ROUGH LANGUAGE ALERT!) for more clues. It appears that the crew responsible for final on-site assembly may not have followed the designers’ specifications, nor did they appear to have followed safe engineering practises for hazardous construction in the presence of civilian traffic.

It is likely that a combination of errors — including on-site human error and faulty bureaucratic decision-making — contributed to this fatal disaster. Several critics have pointed out the politically correct nature of the “affirmative action” hiring practises of some of the groups involved in the design and construction of the FIU bridge. Placing less qualified persons in positions of critical responsibility for reasons of sex, ethnicity, political connections, or other reasons other than personal competence, is a distinct flaw of big money projects around the world.

Accelerated Bridge Construction Overview

Over a 30 year period, China was the recipient of foreign investment and technology transfer on a grandiose scale. As a direct consequence, massive cash reserves were built up, which are being used in an attempt to gain control of global ports and other transportation facilities, engineering and construction concerns around the world, manufacturing and technology assets in more advanced nations, and any other projects and enterprises that might help China to gain global influence and control.

The San Francisco Bay Bridge fiasco is an object lesson for other governments to beware of Chinese offering cheap construction bids. Given the general stupidity and corruption of politicians and government bureaucrats, it is unlikely that they will be wary enough of the grifters from the middle kingdom.

And that means that taxpayers will continue to suffer for the low quality governments that they have allowed to persist for so long.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood ©.

More:

Informal general engineering analysis of disaster

Video showing one side of the bridge as it collapses

Posted in China | Tagged | 5 Comments

Machine Paradox: Master/Slave vs Symbiosis

Over the past 200 years, machines have released large numbers of humans from lifetimes of physical drudgery — and literally from slavery — in the advanced world. But as machines learn to replace more and more human jobs, vocations, and professions, humans may soon look back fondly on the ancient age of drudgery.

Our current societies cannot function without their machines. But machines are evolving in capability far more quickly than humans are adjusting to the new age of more capable machines.

Hubs of Technology Innovation

In order to move beyond the tragic limitations and precarious dangers of our existence in this one solar system, humans will need help. As it dawns upon us that “we cannot solve our current problems using the level of thinking which caused our problems in the first place,” we need to learn how to think on more levels. And we need to devise a wider array of approaches to problem-solving.

If not for the machines of computation, communication, energy, and production, we could not hope to move any part of human science, industry, and community out into space. The more powerful and versatile the machines, the further humans will be able to go. The smarter machines become, the better they will be at helping humans to solve problems.

But machines are a double-edged sword, and frankly mere machines are not enough to get us where we need to go. We as humans need to wake up to stark reality. Some of us are better suited for the past, and some are better suited for the future. Not everyone will survive.

We know that we can’t go back. But among the many diverse populations of humans scattered around the world, which populations are capable of going forward? Which cultures have the inventiveness and organisational abilities, and which have the resources of mind and production to climb to new plateaus and levels of ingenuity?

As it happens, nations with higher average population IQ also tend to have higher levels of prosperity and inventiveness. Inventiveness helps to generate productivity and prosperity for the future. Conversely, societies with low IQ populations tend to be more impoverished and less inventive.

It is becoming clear that in the emerging age of ever-evolving machines, those populations that can best innovate, operate, and maintain their advanced technological machine infrastructures are best placed to move through whatever bottlenecks and catastrophes that fate may place in their way.

Cultures that Achieve Symbiosis More Likely to Survive

Human populations have experienced divergent evolution on many levels and for many traits, caused by divergent environments and levels of cosmic luck. Some cultures and societies have higher average populations IQs, some have higher average levels of conscientiousness and impulse control. Some populations are simply more clever and inventive than others. If a clever and inventive people are also higher in conscientiousness and executive function, their societies are likely to be more prosperous, resilient, and more future-oriented. In general, nations of Europe, the Anglosphere, and free East Asia, fall into that category.

High IQ populations that are imprisoned within tyrannical cultures of top-down control are likely to develop a society low in trust, low in prosperity, and brittle to unexpected shocks — as in a North Korea or an East Germany. Communist China and the Russian Federation are intermediate on such scales — handicapped by top-down rigidity and abysmal corruption, but not completely paralysed.

Low IQ populations that are also corrupt — such as one sees across Africa, much of Latin America, much of tribal Asia, and within various immigrant populations inside more advanced regions — fall on the lower levels of competence, and will find it increasingly difficult to negotiate the coming catastrophes brought on by machine evolution combined with willful governmental and societal blindness.

One aspect to the dark side of an adjustment to the age of machines — the transition is not likely to be quick, easy, or universally pleasant.

Better Humans Needed

Machines will keep getting better, and more powerful. Simple rules of profit-making will see to that. Even the most clever, inventive, and resourceful of humans will find themselves hard-pressed to shield themselves and their societies from some of the damaging fallout that will necessarily come from direct contact with quickly evolving machines.

That is why humans need to devote just as much, or more, attention to developing the human substrate of their societies as they are devoting to their advanced technological machine infrastructures.

The alternative to the development of smarter, more clever, more independent humans, is a widespread descent of human societies into a subservient existence. Subservient to what, or whom? If you must ask that question, it may already be too late for you and yours.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood ©.

Posted in Competence, innovation, IQ | Tagged | 1 Comment

Nihilists and Doomers Come Cheap and Stupid; Competent Optimists Have to Know Something

… pessimism is self-defeating. It feeds on itself, promoting paralysis and more pessimism. It’s a dead end. __ Source

The Human Future Could Be Grand if We Would Let it Be

“As time passes, in the main the human condition improves — and this can be expected to continue,” writes Gregg Easterbrook in his new book “It’s Better than It Looks: Reasons for Optimism in an Age of Fear.”

Easterbrook presents piles of statistics, describing both the United States and the entire world, to prove that. The share of the world’s population living in “extreme poverty” — defined by the World Bank as no more than $1.90 a day of income — dropped from 37 percent in 1990 to 10 percent in 2015. Since 1993, U.S. violent crime rates have declined almost 300 percent. (“Central Park after dark now is as safe as Yellowstone Park at noon,” writes Easterbrook.) One 2013 study found that 84% of Americans earn more than their parents did. __ Robert Samuelson in Real Clear Markets

Easterbrook joins Steven Pinker and a range of other clear-headed optimists from Matt Ridley to Peter Diamandis to Bjorn Lomborg to Robert Bryce to Julian Simon to Ray Kurzweil, who have each laid out a variety of roadmaps to an abundant human future.

Tech billionaires from Elon Musk to Jeff Bezos to Paul Allen are in competition to open the doors to outer space commerce and colonisation.

Global energy supplies seem to be far vaster than was predicted by the doomers of the 1970s. The US has gone from energy dependency and pessimism under Obama, to a world energy superpower under a new administration. With a growing human mastery of advanced nuclear fission — and eventually fusion — the threat of energy scarcity is becoming more boogeyman than real.

Global food production potential is virtually unlimited, and the main industrial threat in the age of robots is perpetual overproduction of cheap and highly reliable goods.

Human science and technology, human medical science and longevity, increases in effective human mastery of the world via advanced computing and robotics — all point to a world of greater abundance and increased life spans.

That is not enough, of course, to bring about an extended abundant and expansive human future. Humans face a massive demographic challenge which threatens the ability of advanced civilisations to maintain their own critical infrastructures long enough to break through to the next level. But if we have the will, persistence, and resilience — if we plan and act wisely and proactively — we can overcome the many obstacles and at the very least create significant networked islands of competence to bridge the gap.

Nihilism is Making a Strong Comeback

Definition of nihilism
1 a : a viewpoint that traditional values and beliefs are unfounded and that existence is senseless and useless…

b : a doctrine that denies any objective ground of truth and especially of moral truths
2 a : a doctrine or belief that conditions in the social organization are so bad as to make destruction desirable for its own sake independent of any constructive program or possibility
b capitalized : the program of a 19th century Russian party advocating revolutionary reform and using terrorism and assassination
__ Merriam-Webster

The last time that nihilism held so strong a grip on intellectuals was in the last half of the 1800s in Russia. Conditions were harsh at the time, and Russian social institutions of the day were completely indifferent to the plight of the impoverished majority. The difference between the nightmare serf’s society of Tsarist Russia of the 1800s, and the relatively affluent and indulgent society of the modern west, calls into question the intellectual driving force behind modern nihilist youth and the flocks of social justice wankers on campuses of universities, media, corporations, and governments. Hint: the destructive modern nihilist movements also receive financial support from billionaires, just as the various “abundant future” movements do.

The more deeply these wankers penetrate governments, media, academia, corporations, foundations, and other cultural institutions, the more difficult it becomes to create an abundant and expansive future.

To combat these stupid drones of doom and destruction, a great deal of thought and invention will be required. But the main effort needs to go into creating the wide open future itself, rather than getting hung up on the idiots of today’s postmodern nihilist left.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. Remember that a Dangerous Childhood prepares for all possibilities. We are bound to see a lot of downs along with the ups. Make your provisions.

More:

Steven Pinker’s Golden Age

A slow realisation of deeper needs and a few of the dark realities lurking on the left. The author would be wise to read and study Jordan Peterson in depth, but pursuing the deeper meanings might cause him to stray too far from the comforts of the mainstream.

Posted in expansive future, Future, Optimism, Postmodernism | Tagged | 2 Comments

World’s Most Violent Places

50 Most Violent Cities

When one shines a light under rocks and in dark corners, monstrous acts are apt to be uncovered and illuminated. The 50 violent cities above just happen to be places where records are kept, more or less. In much of the third world, officials are too busy taking bribes and mis-allocating government funds to bother with crime statistics.

Here is another global look at violent crime, focusing on homicide.

Homicide Rates per 100,000 Persons

Violent crime rates and homicide rates do not correlate exactly, but they often correspond closely.

Likewise, the violent crime rates of cities do not necessarily correspond to the violent crime rate rankings of regions or nations. Russia, for example, has a much higher murder rate than the US — more than 2 X the national rate — but unlike the US, Russia has no cities on the top 50 violent crime list.

Often violent crime takes place in and around particular neighborhoods within larger cities.


A city may contain neighborhoods with third-world levels of violent crime and homicide, but if the city is large enough to dilute the statistical effect of these neighborhoods, its overall rates of violence and murder may not place it in the top 50 or top 100 lists.

Violent Crime Has Gene-Linked Aspects

It is not politically correct to point out that rates of violent crime are perennially higher in particular ethnic and racial population groupings, but any police officer anywhere in the world who is worth anything, can point out the ethnic enclaves in their jurisdiction which generate the most crime of various types.

Consider a thought experiment: If one were to remove the statistical effect of high-crime ethnic enclaves in various cities — in the US, for example — overall crime rates for those cities would change significantly, at least statistically:

If New York City were all white, the murder rate would drop by 91 percent, the robbery rate by 81 percent, and the shootings rate by 97 percent.

In an all-white Chicago, murder would decline 90 percent, rape by 81 percent, and robbery by 90 percent. __ Color of Crime 2016 Revised

In other words, without multicultural enclaves, violent crime rates for many US cities would be the same as, or lower than, violent crime rates for the most placid cities in Europe.

Such hypothetical thought experiments are irrelevant to the real world, but they are crucial to an understanding of the origins of violent crime within various cities. And understanding the origins of violent crime may uncover solutions to preventing much of the violent crime in the first place.

More on the genetic underpinnings of violence

Europe is Importing a Future of Violent Crime

As cities of Sweden, Germany, France, Italy, the UK, and Belgium become more “multicultural,” crime rates within particular neighborhoods of these cities are rising. Pressure is being put on police forces to minimise crime reporting in municipal, regional, and national statistics, but the people who live there know what is happening. Recent Italian elections reflect this citizen awareness of demographic change — and one can only expect such an awareness to grow along with the suffering and tyranny caused by Europe’s expanding multiculturalism itself.

Homicide by Nation

It seems unfortunate that some of the regions of the world with the highest homicide rates also happen to be regions with the world’s highest fertility rates. This means that highly violent humans — no matter whether they got that way genetically, culturally, or by cosmic accident — are breeding faster than persons that demonstrate tendencies toward lower levels of violence.

Wikipedia: Map of total fertility rate by nation

We will leave it as an exercise for the reader to decide the possible implications of these parallel trends in violence and fertility. Particularly in the light of emigration pressures, which will only grow more severe within high fertility, high poverty, high violence, low opportunity societies.

Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst

It is particularly troubling that Europe is turning to unreliable, intermittent forms of electrical power at the same time that it is about to be overwhelmed with ever larger numbers of violence-prone, low IQ, untrainable and unassimilable populations of migrants. Sub Saharan Africa is accustomed to extended power blackouts, but the cities of Europe have no such tolerance. Power blackouts tend to bring out the worst in populations that occupy the lowest rungs on the population stratification hierarchies, and by abandoning more robust and resilient forms of power supply, Europe is inviting human disaster and ruin to its cities.

More intelligent persons will make provisions for increasingly likely catastrophes.

It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Posted in Blacks and crime, Crime, Demographics | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Pyramids Within Pyramids … Schemes and Scams

Sierpinski Pyramid
Source

The Fractal Scams of Modern Chinese Society

Today’s China is one fractal pyramid from top to bottom — from the lowest scale to the highest. “Scale Invariance” is a fractal property of an object, where its morphology is virtually identical regardless of the scale on which it is examined.

“Pyramid sales are like spiritual opium,” Li said. “The organizers brainwash people to believe they will definitely get rich. Like drug addicts, you have to get them out of that environment to help them.” __ Eugene K. Chow

China’s pyramid schemes and scams possess a similar property of scale invariance. Whether seen from the top — the Chinese Communist Party — all the way down to village or neighborhood level, the entire society is small pyramids nested in larger pyramids stacked upon other pyramids…

China’s investors — large and small — are severely restricted in their choices of investments. They cannot freely invest outside of China, for example, or freely invest in non-Chinese currencies. They are hog-tied and forced to invest in whatever local scams — state sponsored or not — that may pop up in lieu of the more solid investments that are available in other countries, but outlawed to Chinese people.

Eager to get rich, but with few opportunities, migrant laborers, workers laid off from state-owned enterprises, and recent college graduates in second and third tier cities are particularly vulnerable to pyramid schemes.

But unlike in the United States, pyramid schemes in China use far more insidious tactics. Authorities aptly call these scams “business cults,” as they rely on heavy brainwashing to trap participants and entice new ones.

Potential recruits are lured to an isolated place by a friend or family member, and for the next week recruiters will psychologically break them down, emphasizing the benevolent nature of the business, promising wealth, and appealing to personal ambition and their responsibility to provide for their family. __ The Diplomat

Unlike what one might expect in an “egalitarian” state, China’s wealthy and politically connected own most of China’s capital. This paradoxical inequality has applied to every so-called “egalitarian” state, from the USSR to North Korea to Venezuela to Cuba to the China of Mao.

China’s Real Estate Bubble is a Larger Pyramid Scheme

On a larger scale of the pyramid, the perilous real estate bubble of China involves the complicity of China’s central government, banking sectors, large business developers, state owned enterprises, and especially local and regional governments.

Fenced in by harsh limitations on investment opportunity, Chinese investors are forced to gamble on the many bubble investments schemed up by the big players in the pyramid games.

China has tried just about everything to tame a property market in which home prices sometimes jump around like the value of Bitcoin…

… Many investors snap up homes — in China, they are mostly apartments — hoping to ride a price surge. In the biggest cities, property prices on average have at least doubled over the past eight years. But vast numbers of apartments in many cities lie empty, either because the buyers have no intention of moving in or renting out, or because speculators built homes that nobody wants. __ https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/22/business/china-housing-property-tax.html

In place of productive investments, Chinese governments, speculators, and developers are happy to inflate bubbles and build pyramid infrastructure out of sand. This is just one small reason why China’s GDP figures must always be viewed with extreme scepticism.

Local investors — many of whom do not trust the country’s stock markets and are forbidden by Beijing to move most of their wealth abroad — simply throw money at housing. __ NYT

China is becoming a huge fractal pyramid of a Potemkin nature, a grand theatrical production in every aspect, complete with a massive misallocation of resources.

At the Top of the Pyramid, the Communist Party of Xi

It is at the top of the fractal pyramid of China that we see the most grandiose of schemes, scams, and Potemkin villages. Behind China’s vaunted organ transplant centres, we discover a revoltingly murderous mass-murder industry that would bring down governments in any civilised society.

Read the report

China’s university system is famous for its corruption and widespread cheating and plagiarism scandals.

The corruption does not end in China’s medical and educational departments. Corruption pervades all of China’s government and society. China’s media is much more corrupt than media in the west — although western media is far more corrupt than it should be.

China’s military and space departments have always been corrupt — but as they are being showered with more and more funding, expect the innately corrupt instincts of the system to manifest themselves, with large portions of the funding siphoned off to personal accounts and pet projects of highly placed individuals (and their cronies).

Most corrupt of all, of course, is the Communist Party at all levels. The higher the level, the more the corruption. In fact, anti-corruption efforts only serve to centralise the corruption and concentrate it even more. This is what China is, today. A fractal pyramid scheme from the nano to the macro levels.

China Needs to Face Tit for Tat Confrontation

As the world twists itself in an angry knot over US President Trump’s efforts to achieve a “tit for tat” trade policy with China, it is becoming easier to see ghosts of Chinese influence even in western media. This spread of Chinese corruption and influence peddling from the mainland outward to relatively free nations such as Australia, Canada, the EU, and elsewhere, is an ominous sign

Transparency in Corruption Rankings

Chinese Corruption: Coming Soon to a Country Near You

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Posted in China | Tagged | 2 Comments

Once and Coming Age of Slavery

Slavery is Ancient and Ubiquitous in Human History

Slavery enters human history with civilization

Once people gather in towns and cities, a surplus of food created in the countryside (often now on large estates) makes possible a wide range of crafts in the town. On a large farm or in a workshop there is real benefit in a reliable source of cheap labour, costing no more than the minimum of food and lodging. These are the conditions for slavery. Every ancient civilization uses slaves. And it proves easy to acquire them.

War is the main source of supply, and wars are frequent and brutal in early civilizations. When a town falls to a hostile army, it is normal to take into slavery those inhabitants who will make useful workers and to kill the rest.

___ http://www.historyworld.net/wrldhis/PlainTextHistories.asp?historyid=ac41

Throughout ancient history, slaves have been used on farms, in households, on construction projects, and in wars. From Egypt to China to Babylon to Rome, slaves have been an integral component of economies of civilisation. We often reflect on the sad fate of African slaves, while forgetting about the equally sad fate of other slaves in recent history, and of the fate of contemporary slaves around the world.

Slavery Has Always Been Common in Africa

In fact, an active slave trade continues inside a number of African nations to this day — and probably always will.

Like most other regions of the world, slavery and forced labor existed in many kingdoms and societies of Africa for thousands of years.[13]… The best evidence of slave practices in Africa come from the major kingdoms, particularly along the coast, and there is little evidence of widespread slavery practices in stateless societies.[1][5][6] Slave trading was mostly secondary to other trade relationships; …

…Chattel slavery had been legal and widespread throughout North Africa when the region was controlled by the Roman Empire (47 BC – ca. 500 AD). A slave trade bringing Saharans through the desert to North Africa, which existed in Roman times, continued and documentary evidence in the Nile Valley shows it to have been regulated there by treaty.[8] Chattel slavery persisted after the fall of the Roman empire in the largely Christian communities of the region. After the Islamic expansion into most of the region, the practices continued and eventually, the chattel form of slavery spread to major societies on the southern end of the Sahara (such as Mali, Songhai, and Ghana).[1] __ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavery_in_Africa

Slavery Was an Important Source of Wealth for African Chiefs

According to one of the foremost scholars of historical slavery, Hugh Thomas, African monarchs were responsible for a lion’s share of the slave trade between the interior of Africa and coastal areas.

Portuguese and English slave traders did not have access to the diseased interior of Africa, but instead relied upon wealthy African slave traders and sometimes their Arab intermediaries, for the rich supply of African labour.

Human Slaves Could Not Compete with Machine Slaves

After the industrial revolution in England and North America, human slavery became uneconomical in the west. Without profits, the entire institution of western slavery was doomed.

By the time loud self-righteous legal abolitions of slavery were proclaimed in England and later America, the underlying economic realities had already made the issue moot.

Moral Grandstanding is Beside the Point

Modern public persons make great displays of indignation at the mere thought or memory of slavery — as if only monstrous and immoral persons could have ever stooped to the practise of slave ownership. And yet, humans of all races are essentially monstrous and amoral when it suits their needs. Posturing denial of that fact is just pathetic. And the inability to see beyond one’s own cultural frame is brain death.

Machines Not Only Make Slaves Unnecessary…

The rise of machines in the industrial revolution made human slavery uneconomical across a wide range of work environments. As the industrial and technological revolutions continue to develop, machines not only replaced humans on farms, in heavy construction, in the factories, in military applications, and in the household — machines are now replacing doctors, lawyers, librarians, professors, and will soon begin replacing government bureaucrats in large numbers.

Self-pitying modern humans like to see themselves as “wage slaves,” and in other ways as indentured persons. Machines are coming, and will soon give them something more genuine to cry about.

When Machines Stop Working, Slavery Will Rise Again

Slavery is not dead, of course. It thrives in the Muslim lands of Africa, in Russia, across China, deep throughout India, and scattered across much of the world.

And while machines have replaced slaves throughout most of the developed world, machines cannot reliably build, test, and maintain themselves over long periods of time. Human beings need to possess the wide range of skills that allows them to invent, build, maintain, and skillfully operate the machines over their lifetimes.

As skilled humans drop by the wayside, machines likewise die. No matter how sophisticated the machine, without its human enablers, it will fall apart and die. In fact, the more complex the machine, the sooner it is likely to fail.

Skilled Humans are Dying Off

Someone forgot to tell young crops of humans that some of them would need to acquire important skills and disciplines in order to keep the machines of civilisation working. They grew up playing with toys and machines whose workings they did not understand, exploiting the labour of armies of skilled tradesmen whom they thought of more as punchlines for jokes than as persons worthy of their gratitude and emulation.

And someone forgot to tell middle schools and universities that civilisation depends upon competent people with genuine knowledge and skills — not upon armies of indoctrinated activists with nothing real between their ears.

Without the people with crucial skills, the machines will die, and the critical infrastructures of modern societies will fail. As that happens, all semblance of civility and civilised mores will fall by the wayside.

As Things Grow Worse, More People Will Have No Choice but to Sell Themselves and Their Children

Humans are born at different levels of aptitude to many different skills, talents, and abilities. Most modern humans are woefully dependent upon the society around them for the gratification of their drives and needs. As society fails, they will become desperate. Desperate people do things that they would never dream of doing otherwise. Particularly when surrounded by others who are equally desperate.

Less intelligent and less savvy persons will be more at the mercy of unscrupulous persons who are willing to feed, clothe, and shelter them — at the price of their freedoms.

None of This Has to Happen

As long as advanced human societies continue to produce enough intelligent and conscientious persons to maintain and advance their high tech societies, the masses of individuals inside those societies can continue to exist as superfluous surplus, oblivious to the underlying realities that make their fluffy minds and soft lives possible.

But when high tech societies become inundated by low-IQ, low conscientiousness, low executive function immigrants and offspring, they can no longer invent, build, or maintain the machines of modern infrastructure. That is when the results of their own unwise policies of government sink them.

Slavery is not dead. It is only sleeping, waiting for the neo-nihilistic ideologies of the postmodern left to make a complete hash of everything that dozens of generations of western ancestors worked so hard to assemble.

Intelligence is in short supply, but stupidity has no limit.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

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