Understanding Cycles of Oxygen, Water, and Carbon

The Oxygen Cycle

Oxygen Cycle / Reservoirs Source

Oxygen Cycle / Reservoirs
Source

Notice that most of the Earth’s oxygen is tied up in the lithosphere — planetary rock. Atmospheric levels of oxygen can rise and fall, naturally, and have done so over billions of years.

Major reservoirs involved in the oxygen cycle

Reservoir Capacity
(kg O2)
Flux in/out
(kg O2 per year)
Residence time
(years)
Atmosphere 1.4×1018 3×1014 4500
Biosphere 1.6×1016 3×1014 50
Lithosphere 2.9×1020 6×1011 500000000

And don’t forget all the oxygen that is tied up in planetary water.

The Global Water Cycle

Earth’s global water cycle regulates global temperatures and atmospheric/oceanic energy storage and movement. The sun has heated up considerably over the past few billion years, but Earth’s temperature has remained remarkably constant — all things considered. You can thank the global hydrologic cycle for that.

Despite a substantial increase in the power of the sun over billions of years the temperature of the Earth has remained remarkably stable. My proposition is that the reason for that is the existence of water in liquid form in the oceans combined with a relatively stable total atmospheric density. If the power input from the sun changes then the effect is simply to speed up or slow down the hydrological cycle.

An appropriate analogy is a pan of boiling water. However much the power input increases the boiling point remains at 100C. The speed of boiling however does change in response to the level of power input. The boiling point only changes if the density of the air above and thus the pressure on the water surface changes. In the case of the Earth’s atmosphere a change in solar input is met with a change in evaporation rates and thus the speed of the whole hydrological cycle keeping the overall temperature stable despite a change in solar power input.

A change in the speed of the entire hydrological cycle does have a climate effect but as we shall see on timescales relevant to human existence it is too small to measure in the face of internal system variability from other causes. __ http://www.newclimatemodel.com/new-climate-model/

Energy from the sun is cyclic. As energy inflow increases, massive amounts of energy are moved via atmospheric phenomena, and even more via ocean currents and ocean oscillations. As solar inflow declines, ocean oscillations reverse, currents alter, more clouds form, and natural global climate cycles become more susceptible to long term orbital cycles, including Milankovitch cycles (among others) — often leading to widespread glaciation.

 The Earth as a Heat Engine. The equatorial Hadley Cells provide the power for the system. Over the tropics, the sun (orange arrows) is strongest because it hits the earth most squarely. The length of the orange arrows shows relative sun strength. Warm dry air descends at about 30N and 30S, forming the great desert belts that circle the globe. Heat is transported by a combination of the ocean and the atmosphere to the poles. At the poles, the heat is radiated to space. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/14/the-thermostat-hypothesis/


The Earth as a Heat Engine. The equatorial Hadley Cells provide the power for the system. Over the tropics, the sun (orange arrows) is strongest because it hits the earth most squarely. The length of the orange arrows shows relative sun strength. Warm dry air descends at about 30N and 30S, forming the great desert belts that circle the globe. Heat is transported by a combination of the ocean and the atmosphere to the poles. At the poles, the heat is radiated to space.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/14/the-thermostat-hypothesis/

Where the Water Is

Table 8b-1: Inventory of water at the Earth’s surface.

Reservoir
Volume (cubic km x 1,000,000)
Percent of Total
Oceans
1370
97.25
Ice Caps and Glaciers
29
2.05
Groundwater
9.5
0.68
Lakes
0.125
0.01
Soil Moisture
0.065
0.005
Atmosphere
0.013
0.001
Streams and Rivers
0.0017
0.0001
Biosphere
0.0006
0.00004

__ Source

Global Carbon Cycle

Atmospheric carbon dioxide is quickly dissolved in oceans and converted to calcium carbonate, which is incorported into sediments, becoming limestone, dolomite, and other rock forms. Observe from the tables below how much carbon is sequestered in rock, compared with the much smaller amount in oceans, and the very tiny amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Table 9r-1: Estimated major stores of carbon on the Earth.

Sink
Amount in Billions of Metric Tons
Atmosphere
578 (as of 1700) – 766 (as of 1999)
Soil Organic Matter
1500 to 1600
Ocean
38,000 to 40,000
Marine Sediments and Sedimentary Rocks
66,000,000 to 100,000,000
Terrestrial Plants
540 to 610
Fossil Fuel Deposits
4000

___ sourceThere is very little carbon in the atmosphere, compared the oceans. And compared to the lithosphere, there is very little carbon in the oceans. The Earth has evolved very efficient means to move carbon out of the atmosphere, into the oceans and soil, and especially into the rocks.

Historical CO2 Levels Source

Historical CO2 Levels
“There is no correlation whatsoever between carbon dioxide concentration and the temperature at the earth’s surface over geological time.”

Source

Notice how efficiently the evolving biosphere learned to move atmospheric CO2 out of the air and into the biosphere and lithosphere for very long term sequestration. Without ample CO2, plant life cannot exist. As CO2 levels rise, the biosphere of land and ocean automatically adjusts to sequestre CO2 in the biosphere and sedimentary lithosphere.

More from Wikipedia “Carbon Cycle”, including another set of estimates of carbon reservoir distribution.

Estimates from the above tables are likely to be adjusted, as our current infantile knowledge of the world grows and matures via more thorough experiment and exploration. Example: New knowledge about kerogens, an important reservoir of carbon in the planetary crust.

Study and Learn — Don’t Panic

Consumers of popular and science news are at the mercy of professional panic mongers and opportunists — unless they take the time to understand the underpinnings of the world around them. Political powers in the western world have become dominated by unproven apocalyptic theories, and are rushing to enforce unwise economic and energy policies based upon these wild, unproven hypotheses — as if they were proven fact. And no wonder, since many wealthy and highly placed individuals stand to profit handsomely from the rash implementation of these ultimately disastrous policies.

Posted in Climate, Green Quagmire, Science | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Realities

Realities of Crime


Vengeful black mobs roam the streets of Charlotte, North Carolina, and other North American cities, killing, looting, raping, in the name of an imaginary genocide. The real colour of crime is of a different hue than is claimed by the mobs and than what is highlighted by the media.

Realities of Political Peak Oil

Venezuelan oil workers are starving as the country’s production shrinks. Few things are breaking Caracas’ way these days, but its struggles to keep pumping oil, its most important resource, are undoubtedly at the very top of President Maduro’s list of concerns. As the NYT reports, the petrostate’s faltering oil production is compounding Venezuela’s many other economic difficulties… __ Source

In oil-rich Venezuela, “peak oil” is a reality. But it is political peak oil, caused by policies of socialist government.

Political peak oil, the only kind of peak oil you are likely to see — other than peak oil demand.

Realities of China

China’s government is digging its economy into a deeper hole, then covering itself with a mountain of debt. A huge, lucrative industry of organ transplant has been built on the corpses of political and religious dissidents. China’s elite and their capital are making their way to safer destinations, well away from the increasingly toxic Middle Kingdom.

Imagine being abducted and whisked away to a cell where you spend the next several months or years without charge or conviction…

Every now and then you are dragged from your filthy, overcrowded cell into a room where, without warning, needles are jabbed into your arm and blood is drawn into as many vials as it can fill.

Then prison authorities instruct a group of drug-addicted criminals to use violence to restrain you as you are made to give a urine sample and subjected to invasive medical procedures.

“I was placed in a room where the rest of the occupants were all drug offenders,” Liu told news.com.au.

“Once when they were beating me — they have all sorts of methods — they were pinning me down and striking my back, with fists and legs … when an old drug offender walked inside the room and warned them not to damage my organs when they were beating me.”
__ http://nypost.com/2016/09/20/the-grim-reality-of-human-organ-harvesting-in-china/

Realities in Europe

Europe’s rape crisis spirals out of control in Germany, in Sweden, and across the continent wherever third world immigrants are welcomed and supported by government handouts.

Europe has lost her way, and has fallen into a downward political and economic spiral from which she seems to be reluctant to try to escape. Instead, she lashes out at fellow Europeans who try to stop the downward slide, and strikes at allies who may represent Europe’s last chance to survive. All the while she opens her doors to young angry men who hate the prosperity of Europe, the freedoms of Europe, and most of all, the beauty of Europe which they feel compelled to rape and destroy.

Realities in Africa

Africa is undergoing a population expansion of epic dimension

The population in Africa is rapidly expanding, and by 2060 the region will hold an estimated 2.8 billion people. __ http://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/africas-demographic-transition

But Africa is not expanding on its own merits, or by the efforts of its own people. Africa’s population is rapidly expanding thanks to outside medical, financial, humanitarian, and commercial assistance and investments — which are by no means guaranteed to last into the future.

Economic Success Correlates With National Average IQ More at VDare

Economic Success Correlates With National Average IQ
More at VDare


The low innate IQ of sub Saharan African native peoples reveals what most people in government, academia, and media wish to remain hidden — as populations of “competent assisters” in Europe and the Anglosphere drop, populations of those who need assistance is exploding. The outside help that underlies the unsustainable explosion of black African populations is shifting away from Europe and the Anglosphere to China and India. This will change everything.

Realities in Russia

Russia’s political regime is unsustainable and lacks capacity to reform in the face of economic turmoil. __ ECFR

Ever since Russia’s quiet conquest of Crimea and its ongoing ugly wars in Ukraine, Syria, etc., Russia’s already crumbling infrastructure has accelerated its rapid decline. Russia’s schools, hospitals, clinics, housing, energy pipelines, roads, bridges, and the rest of its mostly-Soviet-era infrastructure is collapsing under Putin’s feet. But he only has eyes and funding for foreign wars, conquests, and domestic tyranny.

“Russian authorities are forced to make budget cuts in real terms, affecting almost all areas of the budget, including defense spending,” Guriyev said. “[There is even] currently discussion of large-scale reduction of the state program of armaments modernization” — a multibillion-dollar plan to overhaul much of the military by 2020.

… “In this scenario, the Reserve Fund will be exhausted later this year or in the first half of next year,” he said. “The consequences are that the government will be forced to start spending the National Welfare Fund.”

… prospects for economic recovery continue to be dimmed not only by low oil prices and sanctions but by a lack of new investment. Domestic capital has shrunk with the economic slowdown and foreign investors have largely fled the country since relations between Moscow and the West soured over Russia’s interference in Ukraine. __ http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-economist-guriyev-interview-stagnation/28005119.html

Under Putin, Russia is once again haunted by the spectre of disintegration.

Russia will face a major crisis by 2020. With a declining economy and limited options to address rising social problems, vulnerabilities for Putin will increase. The fundamentals of Russian geopolitics indicate that he must keep Russia united. He sees controlling security structures as key for keeping the country unified and under his rule. At the same time, as his power and the economy weaken, unpredictability will rise for Russia, especially in key strategic borderland regions like Ukraine, the Caucasus and the Black Sea. __ Geopolitical Futures

Long daily Soviet-style lines form in Russian stores once again. Putin thrusts long-suffering nation into extended economic stagnation, as national morale sinks ever lower. Putin is no one’s champion but his own.

Realities Across the Islamic World

Samuel Huntington pointed out that Islam has bloody borders. Even highly placed Muslims sometimes bemoan Islam’s predisposition to bloody violence at every turn.

This curse of violence appears to be built into the religion itself, and has plagued Islam since its founding, with a constant war against the outside, along with an eternal war within Islam itelf. For the most part, the violence has centred on the Arabian lands of the fertile crescent, the peninsula, and North Africa. But lately the blood-letting is expanding into Central Asia, sub Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, the Caucases, and into Europe and the Anglosphere.

The best way to see Islam is as a loosely organised mob of violent musim men and women aiming to subjugate the world under a banner of totalitarian religion — all the while killing other muslims as the mood strikes.

Muslims typically have population IQ averages that are quite low — revealing a lack of potential for any future productivity or prosperity. When you think of Islam, think violence and progressive decline.

Realities of Latin America

Latin America is not a unified bloc. It is a grab-bag of peoples, political and economic systems, and conflicting traditions going back millenia. The places where the people suffer the most are the places where socialism’s grip has been the strongest, and where alliances with China and Russia are the strongest.

Other nations such as Mexico, Chile, and an Argentina trying to recover from a recent socialist past, sometimes choose to strengthen economic and political ties with the west, and reap the rewards of their own efforts and resources as a result.

Global Realities

Demography is destiny. Countries and regions that are losing the demographic struggle include Japan, most of western Europe, Russia, South Korea, most of the Anglosphere, and other, scattered nations and city-states.


If one is careful, he will not be fooled by statistics that conflate fertility and births of third world immigrants with births of native, high IQ peoples. Populations of young, healthy, high-IQ peoples represent a much larger promise of future production, innovation, and accomplishment than do large populations of young, uneducable, violent, low-IQ peoples.

The demographic collapses of parts of Europe, parts of the Anglosphere, parts of East Asia, Russia, and other sometimes influential members of the world community will have “cascading” effects on the economies and well-being of other nations that are dependent upon the nations of demographic collapse.

The end consequences of such cascading effects are unpredictable. One such effect that has already been detected in world economic data is a slowdown in economic activity and production in Japan and certain nations of Europe where economic decline has been most pronounced.

Reality: Governments that Promote Achievement, Innovation, and Productivity Give the People the Best Chance

The western world has been swamped for many decades by policies of redistribution from the productive and innovative to the non-productive and dull. By rewarding failure and punishing success, western governments of Europe and the Anglosphere have made it difficult for their middle classes to marry and build families that are capable of feeding into future prosperity, innovation, and achievement.

In the 2016 US elections, Hillary Clinton champions this grand tradition of redistribution, as has Barack Obama throughout his presidency. Donald Trump is something of an enigma, to this point, in terms of the policies which his administration would actually promote. The libertarian and green socialist tickets both seem to be dedicated to incomptence, self-destruction, and irrelevancy, to all outward appearances.

The climate apocalypse cult has captured full control of several governments in Europe and the Anglosphere, and of the US Democratic Party machine and auxiliary operatives who control most of media and academia. According to the cult, we should all be dead by now:

Back in the late 1980s, the UN claimed that if global warming were not checked by 2000, rising sea levels would wash entire counties away. Four years ago, Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at the University of Cambridge, predicted “global disaster” from the demise of Arctic sea ice—in four years. He too, is eating crow.

There is some levity in all this charade. In 2009, then-British Prime Minister Gordon Brown predicted that the world had only 50 days to save the planet from global warming. But fifty days and years later, and the earth still spins. __ http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbradley/2016/09/23/climate-exaggeration-is-backfiring/print/

In the US, race-baiters and election fraudsters are out in force — particularly in big-city precincts of swing states. Hold onto your hats.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood. Learning about and making plans to build an island of comptence would not be out of order.

Posted in Africa, Blacks and crime, China, Crime, Demographics, IQ | Tagged , | 6 Comments

Can You Spot Hillary Clinton’s Strabismus in this Philadelphia Speech?

As she looks to the right, her left eye seems to “overshoot” the target

This appears to be a new sympton for Ms. Clinton, and may signal a new phase of her medical condition. Update: A web entry from January 2013 states that Clinton’s strabismus dates back to her traumatic brain injury of December 2012. The re-emergence of this physical sign may be due to reasons listed below, or other causes of extreme fatigue in an aging woman being put under physical and mental stress for which she is unfit.

Hillary’s eyes appeared not in-sync with one another, as the left eye looked to be cock-eyed and displaced…

A montage of Hillary’s eye-catching moments before a small group of Temple University students can be seen …

Do you see Hillary’s cock-eyed moments? __ Source

Parkinson's and Strabismus Source

Parkinson’s and the Eye
Source


A number of different medical conditions are associated with adult strabismus, including vascular diseases, Parkinson’s disease, myasthenia gravis, and thyroid disease:

Adult Strabismus

Sequential cranial nerve palsies caused by microvascular diseases have been reported. Examples of other medical conditions that can be associated with strabismus in adult patients include thyroid disease, myasthenia gravis, giant cell arteritis, Parkinson disease, and cerebrovascular disease.
__ Source

In the attempt to puzzle out the state of Ms. Clinton’s health in the absence of any transparency from her campaign, we must examine any and all information that is publicly available.

Dr. Bardack Test Hillary Clinton's Hand Grip Source

Dr. Bardack Tests Hillary Clinton’s Hand Grip
Source

Dr Lisa Bardack seen in the image above is Hillary Clinton’s personal doctor. After Hillary collapsed at the 9/11 memorial Dr. Bardack said she was diagnosed with pneumonia on Friday and given antibiotics, but had become dehydrated at the New York event. But in the image above before the collapse you can see Hillary is squeezing Dr. Bardack’s fingers which is well known neurological test.
__ Source

Dr. Bardack quickly assessed Ms. Clinton’s strength and accurately determined that she was in danger of imminent collapse. She was quickly rushed to a waiting black medical vehicle and whisked away out of sight, out of mind.

As can be seen in the video above, Ms. Clinton did collapse to her knees on the pavement, unable to get into the waiting vehicle under her own power. Dr. Bardack’s assessment was rapid and correct, and saved Ms. Clinton much greater embarassment had she collapsed in the middle of a large memorial crowd.


The photo above illustrates Ms. Clinton’s episodic muscle weakness from earlier in the year, something which is apparently becoming more and more common. Clinton is reported to have difficulty entering and exiting her campaign limos.

Hillary Pooped Source

Hillary Pooped
Source


Extreme muscle weakness has apparently pursued Ms. Clinton even to campaign rallies, where she has difficulty standing for extended periods of time without assistance.


Dyskinesias can be caused by a number of medical conditions, but can offer additional clues to the candidate’s state.

Muscle Weakness, Dyskinesias, Strabismus

In the video below, Ted Noel M.D., a retired anesthesiologist with intensive care training and experience, tries to assemble as much public information on Clinton’s medical condition as possible. Noel thinks that Parkinson’s disease is the most likely diagnostic candiedate.

Parkinson’s disease causes dyskinesias. Muscle weakness can also accompany Parkinson’s. Adult strabismus is another of Clinton’s symptoms that can hitch a ride with Parkinson’s.

Other medical conditions, such as myesthenia gravis and hypothyroidism, might also cause Ms. Clinton’s muscle weakness, and adult strabismus, but they fail to account for her dyskinetic movements and her mental freezes seen in Dr. Noel’s video above.

Why Are Clinton’s Symptomatic Moments so Intermittent?

Since Clinton is increasingly being held away from the stresses and pressures of the limelit campaign trail, we have no way of knowing how frequently Ms. Clinton displays these symptoms, in private. It seems quite likely that Clinton is being rested most of the time, then medically primed for each public appearance — with a coterie of aides on constant standby, ready to whisk her away from the crowds.

If Clinton does indeed have Parkinson’s disease, she probably also has a deep brain stimulator (DBS) electrode implanted into her basal ganglia area. For someone with advanced Parkinson’s, a DBS can be the most effective therapy — but it is not a cure. A DBS can pump up her brain function temporarily, but sooner or later she must rest.

Is Clinton Developing Dementia?

Dementia is common in the advanced stages of Parkinson’s Disease. Assessment of any possible dementia is extremely difficult due to the extremely tight manner in which Clinton is being handled by medical and campaign aides. But when it comes to concealing a progressively degenerative neurological disease, time is not on the side of the Clinton campaign. The most that they can hope for is to keep the news media on the reservation, keep Ms. Clinton out of the limelight as much as possible so that she can rest and stay heavily medicated, and “run down the clock” to the presidential election in November — hoping that the well-practised national machine of voter fraud will do the trick once again in the large city precincts of swing states that will determine the election outcome.

More —

These problems need to be satisfactorily explained by the Clinton campaign and Hillary’s doctors before the public can believe that Ms. Clinton is fit to run for the highest US political office:

the falls, the difficulty walking up stairs or stepping into vehicles (needs a booster step), the times of “freezing” in her speech, or her memory problems (documented by FBI investigation from her interviews), volatile moods (widely reported by staff, Secret Service, etc. but also evident on videos of events when she lashes out at someone who disagrees with her). It seems to me there are still many serious questions about her fitness to serve as president of the United States, just based on what is evident in public videos of her.

[Dr. Elizabeth Lee] Vliet maintains a “neurocognitive evaluation by an independent expert is what’s needed and full release of the medical records, laboratory studies imaging studies etc.”
__ Dr. Elizabeth Lee Vliet quoted in “Doctors Debate Hillary Clintons Health Mysteries”

As for the concussions:

“The problem with concussions is that they are cumulative,” the physician said. “The brain does not recover completely from concussions, so particularly in older individuals, like Mrs. Clinton who is 68 years old, multiple concussions are an even more serious problem, given that memory problems can signal mental cognitive impairment that could lead to dementia.” __ More Doctors Debate Clinton’s Health Problems

Yet another diagnosis

More:

This is no time for Hillary Clinton to be canceling campaign appearances and fundraisers. Can she go the distance, inquiring minds want to know?

Posted in Hillary Clinton, Human Brain, Medicine, Politics | Tagged , , | 10 Comments

Electing Hillary Dumpty, Just to Make it Fair

Hillary Dumpty:  Putting It Together Source

Hillary Dumpty: Putting It Together
Source


The United States has been the world’s richest nation since roughly 1890, for over a century. This long-lasting economic inequity has caused understandable discontent among a number of other nations and would-be superpowers. Even under President Barack Obama — arguably the most dysfunctional US presidential administration in history — the US has outpaced Europe, China, Japan, and all others who were supposed to have overtaken the US by now.

But with the candidacy of Hillary Clinton for US President, there are new reasons for optimism among economic, political, and military competitors of the US.

So even though Europe is in danger of fragmenting, China is mired in poverty, Russia is running out of money, Japan’s people are dying out, and most of the rest of the world (except the Anglosphere) is populated by people with average IQs too low to take care of themselves — much less take over the world — the coming of Hillary Dumpty means that the US will be vulnerable to outside competition like nothing since the late 1800s.

Although the Clinton campaign and its enablers in the media deny that there is anything wrong with Ms. Clinton’s health, in reality it is likely that physical limitations will curtail much normal presidential activity and initiative that would otherwise be expected of a US president. Although, to be fair, Ms. Clinton seems quite animated, in a relaxed manner, in the gif below.

So go ahead, America! Elect Hillary Dumpty and make the world a much fairer place for all the would-be superpowers that never had an honest chance to conquer (or destroy) the world, until now.

Posted in Economics, Hillary Clinton, Politics, satire | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

The Peak Oil Fad Loses Traction

What Happened to the Great 2005 Peak Oil Collapse?

Peak Oil Searches Crash and Burn Source

Peak Oil Searches Crash and Burn
… interest in the old concern of ‘Peak Oil’ has all but disappeared after the surge in focus on this during the mid-2000s,” Oswald Clint and Mark Tabrett, Bernstein analysts, wrote in a note … __ Bloomberg Source


The rapid growth in North American oil production leading to the global oil glut, has dominated public concerns about oil for the past few years. Oil surpluses are likely to continue to dominate oil markets through next year — according to the IEAs latest forecast — and likely for many years to come.
US Oil Reserve Growth Source

US Oil Reserve Growth
Source

Global demand growth is slowing at a faster pace than the group initially predicted. The IEA left its forecast for demand growth for 2017 unchanged from its prediction in June at 1.2 million barrels per day, but cut its forecast for 2016 consumption growth to 1.3 million bpd, from 1.4 million. __ Reuters

US President Obama has unwisely boosted US government spending through the ceiling while at the same time promoting anti-business and anti-energy policies. These counter-productive policies and regulations have weighed heavily on the US and global economies for eight years now. A prolonged global recession looms, if new directions in US leadership fail to appear. Deep economic doldrums are reflected in lower demand for commodities — including oil.

What About “Low Discovery Rates” of New Oil Caused by Low Oil Prices?

During a global oil glut, oil companies tend to cut exploration budgets to improve profits. Such moves reflect the cyclic, boom-bust nature of oil markets for the past 100 + years. At this time, oil gluts exist not only in North American oil fields, but in Iran, Iraq, Angola, Nigeria, and even Mexico — which has suffered severe infrastructure underinvestment for decades.

In fact, with new infrastructure we could easily see significant up-production from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and producers across MENA, Central Asia, black Africa, and parts of Latin America — in conventional oil alone. If you want “new discoveries” you may have to wait until the long-term glut from old and very old discoveries plays out. That is the economic nature of the oil game.

Unconventional Hydrocarbons are a Whole New Game


Global unconventional oil & gas reserves have barely been tapped — much less delineated. Just as global reserves for conventional petroleum have tended upward over the past century and a half, global reserves for unconventional petroleum are set to skyrocket — once current oil gluts are worked through the economic system. This may take many years to accomplish.

Besides tight rock oil & gas, other unconventional hydrocarbon supplies include bitumens from oil sands and heavy oils, kerogens from oil shale rock, massive quantities of gas hydrates, and the promise of unlimited supplies of man-made hycrocarbons of all types — using nuclear reactor heat as the process driver.

Nuclear Process Heat Opens the Door to Thousands of Years of Abundant Energy Converting Cheap Hydrocarbons to Valuable Fuels, Polymers, and other Products

Nuclear Process Heat Opens the Door to Thousands of Years of Abundant Energy
Converting Cheap Hydrocarbons to Valuable Fuels, Polymers, and other Products

Western governments have struggled under the heavy weight of suicidal green energy policies for well over a decade, and many — including Germany — are nearing the breaking point where low quality, unreliable, intermittent green energy can no longer meet the moment-to-moment life or death needs of a modern industrial economy. Such governments — including Obama’s US energy regime — have only themselves to blame for any catastrophes that result from the fatal mismatch between big wind and big solar, and modern power grids.

Nuclear power has been neglected due to political pressures from radical green leftists — leaving societies increasingly vulnerable to catastrophic power shortages and shutdowns. Such radical groups hope and long for a “great human dieoff” that results in the death of between 50% and 90% of all humans on the planet. What they are achieving instead, is growing human hardship — in both the developed world and in emerging worlds.

The economic problems of over-installation of big wind and big solar are just the tip of the iceberg, of course. Besides higher electricity costs to consumers and an increasingly unstable power grid, foolish green energy crusades are creating vast ugly and polluted wastelands of derelict wind and solar farms that are abandoned years before their purported expiration dates.

At least the dead turbines can no longer kill raptors, bats, and other flying creatures, and may even serve as nesting places for their former victim species.

At Tehachapi in hapless Kern County, north of Los Angeles, officials had no provision in law requiring developers to cover the future tear-down costs of the wind turbines. At first, that may not have seemed like a big deal. But the federal tax breaks soon dried up and the developers vanished, leaving behind thousands of rusty, cranking turbines standing in rows like soldiers on the windy plain outside Tehachapi.

__ Source

Although green radical hacks will deny that such derelict eyesores exist, I have seen them with my own eyes. And so can you if you take the effort to explore a bit.

But the derelicts of the past are nothing to the derelicts that will result from the modern day heedless rush of desperation to build monstrous wind and solar farms across formerly pristine landscape. Who will pay for this travesty? Apparently no one, if the past is any guide.

It is up to the rest of us to keep track of who has done what in making the human world less livable, and the human future less abundant and expansive.

Peak Oil Is a Political Phenomenon and Always Will Be

As long as western governments are dominated by dysfunctional energy policies, there will be peak oil fanatics — even in long-lasting times of oil gluts. Because such people are mired in truisms such as “the world is finite with finite resources” they will remain incapable of looking to root human causes of shortages and abundances.

Intelligent and resourceful humans will not run short of energy. But North Korea – style bad government can certainly hobble, imprison, or kill productive and innovative humans to the point that they are unable to provide the resource infrastructure that modern societies need. Peak oil fanatics are of that breed of human who would promote or allow such a hobbling.

Global Hydrocarbon Endowment Gary Swindell  Geologist Dallas TX http://gswindell.com/endow.htm

Global Hydrocarbon Endowment
Gary Swindell Geologist Dallas TX
http://gswindell.com/endow.htm

The resources are there — more than we can imagine. But we have to be able to get at them and convert them into usable form. Advanced nuclear power & heat are crucial to a cleaner, more abundant, and expansive human future. And as we have seen, nuclear process heat can convert cheaper hydrocarbons — such as coal, natural gas, gas hydrates, kerogens, bitumens, biomass etc. — into more valuable fuels, polymers, fertilisers, and other materials in high demand.

Abundant Gas Hydrates Der Spiegel

Abundant Gas Hydrates
Der Spiegel

Peak oil fanaticism is but one form of defeatism or doomerism. It is a doomer club for lonely, aging alcoholics and depressives with nothing truly important to do with their time. Pity them if you must, but for the most part just ignore the fools. Other than an occasional reminder of their inane obsolescence, that is the best attitude to take.

Useful Sources:

The Age of Oil by Leonardo Maugeri

Julian Simon’s Ultimate Resource

Crying Wolf about Oil Supply by Michael Lynch Michael Lynch was a peak oil debunker before peak oil debunking was cool.

Daniel Yergin’s The Prize

Peak Oil Debunked blog archives
The Peak Oil Debunked blog covered the peak oil scene through the mid and late 2000s during the highest peak of frenzy. Irreverent, insightful, amusing.

Posted in Energy, Green Quagmire, Peak Oil | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Hillary Clinton, Parkinson’s Disease, Dementia: Racing Against the Election

The video above provides a summary of what is suspected about Hillary Clinton’s state of neurological health, based upon public information.

Over a month ago, we considered whether Hillary Clinton might be suffering from some form of dementia, based upon information leaked in emails, reports of interviewers, and first impressions of publicly available videos.

Since that posting on 2 August 2016, reports of secret service officers and physicians’ analyses of Clinton’s public medical history of “falls, mental freezes, and public dyskinesias” are pointing more toward a diagnosis of advanced Parkinson’s Disease — which often produces dementia as a component of the disease complex.

This past Sunday at a memorial service for victims of the Muslim terrorist attack on 11 Semptember 2001, Ms. Clinton collapsed, was rushed away by secret service, and was held out of the public eye for a number of hours for treatment and recuperation — before being allowed out for a quickie photo-op to assure admirers that she was fine after all.

But of course, she is not fine at all

Hillary’s public video record of collapse, tremor, coughing spells, dyskinesia, and “brain freezes” combined with email leaks documenting Clinton’s confusion and poor memory, all suggest a serious and progressive neurological disease. Further, Hillary’s history of serious injuries from multiple falls corroborates the impression of neurological disease. Her brain injury from a fall in December 2012 and a subsequent intracranial blood clot and treatment with warfarin, suggests that other reasons for dementia beyond complications of Parkinson’s Disease may be present.

Clearly she is not strong enough or fit enough to be president of the United States.

Will Hillary’s Backers Cough Up Clinton’s Medical Records?

What we are seeing is a media coverup and bluff of epic proportions, in the attempt to prop Ms. Clinton up long enough for her to reach election day — and hopefully, in their view, inauguration day. No trick is too dirty, no obfuscation too dishonest, no act is too despicable if this feat of legerdemain can only be accomplished.

To that end, Ms. Clinton’s true medical history must be hidden and covered up for as long as it takes to achieve political power.

We can only speculate based upon publicly available information. But eyewitnesses will eventually come forward, concealed records and correspondences will eventually be liberated and provided to the public. It would be best for the nation as a whole for the Clinton juggernaut to come clean before the election and provide full access to all pertinent records. But that will never happen, given the stakes.

But perhaps they should reconsider: Even Barack Obama’s former physician has joined the growing chorus of medical doctors demanding that Hillary Clinton receive a thorough neurological examination. And given Hillary’s shocking collapse at the 9/11 ceremony, public attention toward Hillary’s disorder can only grow.

More:

An 18 year summary of Hillary’s health problems (that we know of) The downward trajectory appears to be steepening.

If Clinton has Parkinson’s, it is probable that she has a deep brain stimulating electrode implanted, and it may not be her first. DBS implants for Parkinson’s can provide temporary remissions, but are not definitive cures. If the patient is overtired or overworked — common conditions for engaged US Presidents — disease symptoms will emerge with a vengeance.

Posted in Hillary Clinton, Human Brain, Politics | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Supersmart Individuals Control the Future

“Whether we like it or not, these people really do control our society,” says Jonathan Wai, a psychologist at the Duke University Talent Identification Program in Durham, North Carolina… “The kids who test in the top 1% tend to become our eminent scientists and academics, our Fortune 500 CEOs and federal judges, senators and billionaires,” …

__ SciAm

Genes and IQ http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-project-probes-the-genetics-of-genius-1.12985

Candidates for the Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth in 1983
http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-project-probes-the-genetics-of-genius-1.12985

The US adolescents who signed up for the Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth (SMPY) in the 1970s were the smartest of the smart, with mathematical and verbal-reasoning skills within the top 1% of the population. __ http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-project-probes-the-genetics-of-genius-1.12985

Societies Neglect Their High Intelligence Children at Their Own Risk

In Europe, support for research and educational programmes for gifted children has ebbed, as the focus has moved more towards inclusion. England decided in 2010 to scrap the National Academy for Gifted and Talented Youth, and redirected funds towards an effort to get more poor students into leading universities. __ Raising a Genius

For the past 45 years, a US research study has been tracking the life and career trajectories of “supersmart” children — those who tested in the top 0.5% on the spatial ability portion of the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) in the US. The researchers have discovered that these small cohorts of youth have — over time — achieved career results far out of proportion to their numbers.

In 1976, [Julian] Stanley started to test … a sample of 563 13-year-olds who scored in the top 0.5% on the SAT … on spatial ability—the capacity to understand and remember spatial relationships between objects. Tests for spatial ability might include matching objects that are seen from different perspectives, determining which cross-section will result when an object is cut in certain ways, or estimating water levels on tilted bottles of various shapes.

… Follow-up surveys—at ages 18, 23, 33 and 48—backed up his hunch. A 2013 analysis found a correlation between the number of patents and peer-refereed publications that people had produced and their earlier scores on SATs and spatial-ability tests. The SAT tests jointly accounted for about 11% of the variance; spatial ability accounted for an additional 7.6%.

The findings, which dovetail with those of other recent studies, suggest that spatial ability plays a major part in creativity and technical innovation. “I think it may be the largest known untapped source of human potential,” says Lubinski, who adds that students who are only marginally impressive in mathematics or verbal ability but high in spatial ability often make exceptional engineers, architects and surgeons. “And yet, no admissions directors I know of are looking at this, and it’s generally overlooked in school-based assessments.” __ Mathematically Precocious Youth Control Future

Intelligence and spatial abilities are crucial factors in high level success, but there is much more involved, including many of the pre-frontal executive functions:

“We don’t know why, even at the high end, some people will do well and others won’t,” says Douglas Detterman, a psychologist who studies cognitive ability at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio. “Intelligence won’t account for all the differences between people; motivation, personality factors, how hard you work and other things are important.”

… The Munich Longitudinal Study of Giftedness, which started tracking 26,000 gifted students in the mid-1980s, found that cognitive factors were the most predictive, but that some personal traits—such as motivation, curiosity and ability to cope with stress—had a limited influence on performance. Environmental factors, such as family, school and peers, also had an impact. __ 45 Years of Mathematically Premature Youth

Most of these factors are either controlled or highly influenced by the child’s genes. Family environment is of course closely related to genetic factors, but choice of school and close peers is also closely controlled by the child’s genes and the genes of the child’s family.

Even in the US, the Establishment Favours Spending Most Resources on Low Achievers

“The education community is still resistant to this message,” says David Geary, a cognitive developmental psychologist at the University of Missouri in Columbia, who specializes in mathematical learning. “There’s a general belief that kids who have advantages, cognitive or otherwise, shouldn’t be given extra encouragement; that we should focus more on lower-performing kids.” __ http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-raise-a-genius-lessons-from-a-45-year-study-of-supersmart-children/

The modern tendency to devote most of society’s resources to persons of low potential — rather than spending small but important quantities of resources to help persons develop their innate high potential — is self-defeating, if not suicidal. This misallocation of resources is a leftist conceit of powerful elitists, who wish to spend “other people’s money” on ideological crusades, rather than to allow “other people” to learn to spend their own money to build better futures for themselves and their own families.

A forward thinking society of vision would allow more resources to be devoted to developing the innate abilities of children who have the potential to build a more expansive and abundant future:

… these gifted students, the ‘mathletes’ of the world, can shape the future. “When you look at the issues facing society now—whether it’s health care, climate change, terrorism, energy—these are the kids who have the most potential to solve these problems,” says Lubinski. “These are the kids we’d do well to bet on.” __ http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-raise-a-genius-lessons-from-a-45-year-study-of-supersmart-children/

Innately gifted children tend to become mentally stunted over time, if their learning options are forcefully limited to “the lowest common denominator,” or to the levels of less gifted and ambitious children.

Project to identify links between genes and intelligence uses DNA samples from SMPY participants

Boys are substantially over-represented among the mathematically and spatially precocious, compared to girls. At the very highest levels of aptitude, there are no girls at all.

Special note:

The title of this post is meant to be provocative and hyperbolic. In reality, supersmart people do not “control” the future, they tend to help provide a general “shape” within which the future evolves. If supersmart people are enmeshed within a dysfunctional system, their output is likely to perpetuate the dysfunction of the system.

The future is subject to large numbers of unpredictable events and “under the radar trends.” A new and unforeseen ice age of widespread glaciation, for example, could render most of the world’s temperate breadbaskets non-arable in just a decade or two. In such an event, most humans would die, because the world’s elites had been focusing on crusades of social justice rather than working out ways of making human societies more resilient and resistant to the inevitable cataclysms that have always come along.

Everything you think you know, just ain’t so. That tends to be the case for most supersmart people as well as all others. Avoid ideology. Avoid crusades. Avoid grand conspiracies and steamrolling bandwagons. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Dangerous Children are always in short supply.

Posted in Cognition, Education, IQ | Tagged | 7 Comments

Why North America is the Focus of Global Innovation

The Anglosphere and Europe are Innovating the World of the Future, with a Strong Assist from East Asia

All innovation is not created equal. Higher quality and more disruptive innovations count far more in terms of future global impact than any simple patent counts or highly processed “innovation indexes.” Historically, Europe jump-started the modern age of innovation in science and technology, with the center of gravity of global innovation moving to North America in the 20th century. With strong investment and support from Europe and the Anglosphere, East Asia has begun to provide strong innovative assistance — in terms of native achievement and in terms of contributions from human capital exported to Europe and the Anglosphere.

Quality of Innovation by Nation Economist

Quality of Innovation by Nation
Economist

The chart above reveals the disproportionate impact of the Anglosphere, Europe, and East Asia respectively, in terms of “quality” innovation.

Most Innovative Countries Source

Most Innovative Countries

Source

The graphic above takes a more detailed look at the influence and components of innovation, once again revealing the central roles played by the Anglosphere, Europe, and East Asia, respectively. (Click on the image for a closer view)

Disruptive Innovation Can Determine the Future of Nations

Why is the US So Much Stronger in the Technology Field than Europe?

Forbes annually ranks the world’s largest companies based on revenue, profit, assets, and market value. In its 2016 compilation, seven of the top 10 tech companies in the world were American. Europe has just just three companies in the top 20: Germany’s SAP, Sweden’s Ericsson, and Finland’s Nokia. And there’s a simply massive size difference between America’s top tech firms and Europe’s. For instance: Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon each have a market cap of over $350 billion each. Europe’s tech trio: about $50 billion a pop.

… Europe is wealthy and well educated, certainly more so than China, which has the same number of tech firms on the Forbes list. So what’s its problem? There are a few obvious answers: lack of access to venture capital, inflexible labor markets, and a heterogeneous home market of distinct language, cultures, and regulations.

One French tech entrepreneur has described America’s edge this way: “The confluence of a large pool of capital, world-class talent, vibrant support infrastructure, and a risk-loving culture has bred a self-fulfilling cycle of innovation and entrepreneurship.” __ Source

North America attracts capital, high achievers, innovators, and entrepreneurs because of higher levels of opportunity, a greater acceptance of risk, and a chance for higher rewards for success. This environment of innovation and opportunity has lasted for as long as the US Constitution has been in force. The US Constitution has been a foundation for what has been built in the US — and North America generally.

If not for North America, Europe would be globally dominant in most scientific, technological, and economic areas. Without the US defence umbrella protecting it, Europe would likely also lead the world in military spending, research, development, and global reach.

When looking for current and future superpowers, one must necessarily look among the leaders in innovative science and technology. If a nation’s achievements are almost invisible in global rankings, its future prospects as a superpower are vanishingly small.

Nobel Prize Cartogram source

Nobel Prize Cartogram
source


Another global map of Nobel Laureates focuses on awards by nation:
Nobels by Nation Source

Nobels by Nation
Source


Amusingly, the author of the piece linked in the map above seems distressed that most Nobel Prizes are won by people working in the western world — Europe and the Anglosphere.

Surprisingly, 83% of all Nobel laureates have come from Western countries, revealing a significant amount of scientific inequity around the globe.

By Western countries Fisher is referring to Western Europe, the U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Looking at the map, it’s clear that Western Europe and North America take the lion’s share of the awards. These prizes have been granted to 72 different countries — but more than half come from only three countries, the U.S., Britain, and Germany. __ George Dvorsky

What is the reason for this “inequity” of achievement? A more productive smart fraction along with better systems of learning and government.

What difference does it make? Consider one person’s timeline of technological innovation and achievement over the past two centuries:

200 Years of Innovation and Growth Source

200 Years of Innovation and Growth
Source


Better innovation can lead to greater prosperity and higher quality of life.

Why are Some Nations Rich and Some Nations Poor?

There is not just one reason for the differences in wealth, poverty, and achievement between nations. Economic systems and government policies of regulation / taxation play large roles. Cultural factors such as ambition, risk-taking, trust, cooperation, and habits of honouring obligations also play very important roles. We have also learned that average national IQ can play a dominant role on determining a nation’s GDP.

Economic Success Correlates With National Average IQ More at VDare

Economic Success Correlates With National Average IQ
More at VDare

Side by side comparisons such as the historical West Germany vs. East Germany, and modern day South Korea vs. North Korea demonstrate that even with very similar population average IQs, different systems of government and economic policies can create stark differences in prosperity and quality of life.

The question is controversial, and remains open to debate because so many different factors contribute to national wealth, poverty, achievement, stability, and quality of life. A few of the authors who have examined this question include Adam Smith, David Landes, John Kay, Jared Diamond, Gregory Clark, Lynn and Vanhanen, Robert Cooter, and many others.

The European Miracle is a 1981 book by economic historian Eric Jones, written to help explain Europe’s amazing rise to global preeminence during the late middle ages.

A relatively recent book, by Peter Zeihan, attempts to explain why North America and the US have grown so powerful, and why the region is likely to remain powerful for at least another century. Zeihan emphasises geography, as well as demographics, in explaining the success of the US and North America.

The rise of the US and North America can be considered a historical and cultural extension of the earlier European rise to dominance. Combining the work of Eric Jones with the logic and data of Peter Zeihan, it is easy to conclude that “The Accidental Superpower” was destined for greatness. But only if an ambitious, conscientious, high-IQ population controlled the entire continent under a system of government such as that provided by the US Constitution.

Corruption Transparency International

Corruption
Transparency International


The massive levels of corruption seen across Asia, Africa, and Latin America suggest that none of these regions is likely to evolve sustainable superpowers without beginning to focus more on developing the opportunities and potential for greatness of their people, and turning away from corrupt central power grabs and potentially violent military competition with their neighbors. Such reforms are highly unlikely for these perennially corrupt regions and nations.

Centres of Disruptive Innovation Likely to Remain the Anglosphere and Europe (w/ help from East Asia)

Europe and the Anglosphere face significant demographic challenges, but the same is true across the economically developed world, as well as most the of the emerging nations except perhaps India. Powerful technological tools allow a shrinking smart fraction to accomplish more per capita, helping to boost innovation and productivity despite a shrinking IQ base.

The geographic, institutional, and demographic advantages in North America provide an enduring foundation of prosperity and innovation that only the worst of government can destroy. Obama has tried, and the Clintons will try again if given a chance. But North America has been attracting the best quality and large quantities of human and economic capital from overseas for centuries now, and is likely to continue doing so.

Rather than attempting to subvert North American companies and ventures, Europe would be far wiser to cooperate with and emulate the aspects of North America that are working well. The same is true for perennial delinquents Russia and China, whose economies are increasingly built upon debt and ever cheaper oil & gas. They should spend far less on weaponry and far more on taking care of their people.

A more peaceful Russia and China would allow North America to spend even more on developing disruptive innovations to help create a more abundant and expansive human future.

Posted in Economics, innovation | Tagged | 9 Comments

The Inevitable Economic Collapse of Leftist – Controlled Places

The economy of Venezuela is in seemingly terminal decline with riots, shortages, and enforced slave labor imposed in an attempt to force more production out of the population. Meanwhile, the economies of Brazil and Argentina — while not comparable to Venezuela — are among the worst in Latin America, with Brazil heading for its its worst depression since 1901. __ https://mises.org/blog/latin-americas-pink-tide-crashes-rocks

Latin American Left Source

Latin American Left
Source


We all remember the collapse of communism in the USSR and Eastern Europe. Likewise a starving communist China’s forced conversion to a more capitalistic economy. More recently, a large chunk of Latin America turned toward leftist rule despite all the dramatic side-by-side comparisons to be seen in former East-West Germany and current North-South Korea.

The results have been predictable: Argentina’s leftist government was booted out in an attempt to save the people from utter impoverishment. Brasil’s corrupt left was put on show trial in the form of a recent impeachment and removal from office of Lula da Silva’s successor. Venezuela is drowning in poverty and open rebellion against the leftist system of oppression. And history marches on.

Something similar is taking place inside the US, with the left-dominated cities and states in decline, while more centrist and right-led states are drawing the more affluent and productive residents from the loser states.

High costs go a long way to explain which states are losing the most migrants. At the top, or rather, the bottom of the list is New York State, which had an abysmal 65.4 attraction ratio in 2014 and lost by far the most net migrants, an astounding 126,000 people. Close behind was Illinois, a high tax, high regulation, and low growth disaster area. In 2014 the Land of Lincoln had an abysmal 67.2 attraction ratio, losing a net 82,000 domestic migrants.

Most of the other top people-exporting states are in the Northeast and Midwest. __ http://www.newgeography.com/content/005380-the-states-gaining-and-losing-the-most-migrants-and-money

Many US cities are in particularly rapid decline, thanks to high populations of underclass blacks. Underclass blacks are famous for high levels of violent crime, high poverty levels, low levels of achievement, and very poor impulse control — even in public.

But underclass blacks have low average IQs, and tend to be easily misled into violent acts and mob action. A relatively new — but very affluent — organisation leading the black charge to the bottom, is “Black Lives Matter.” While claiming to be a “grass-roots” organisation, Black Lives Matter is actually a cash-rich special interest group funded by rich politically radical left whites, such as George Soros.

The Washington Times reports that between OSF and the Center for American Progress, BLM has been the beneficiary of $33,000,000. Through grants to a variety of subversive organizations under the BLM umbrella, OSF and the Center for American Progress are funding a false narrative about racial disparity and police violence with the end-goal of “reforming” local police by federalizing them. By using the looting and rioting as “opportunities for major justice reforms,” Soros and his ilk have fanned the flames of an invented fire for their own purposes.

As bad as all of that would be on its own, even that $33,000,000 is — yet and still — just a drop in the bucket. The Ford Foundation and Borealis Philanthropy have recently formed the Black-Led Movement Fund with a six-year commitment to a pooled donor campaign to the tune of $100,000,000. Race-hustling, it would appear, is a booming industry. After all, you can’t make omelets without breaking a few eggs and you can’t reconstruct a society until you first tear it down. And there is no tool better at tearing down a society that the proven method of divide-and-conquer. $133,000,000 will pay for a lot of #BLM #FTP t-shirts. __ http://www.thenewamerican.com/culture/item/23995-the-deep-left-pockets-of-black-lives-matter

This white-radical funding of violent black radical groups is reminiscent of white-radical funding of destructive green radical groups — which in the end have greater potential to destroy the opportunity society through bad government policy, than even an instigated black – on – everyone else race war would do.

The climate apocalypse cult, for example, is nothing more than a rich white radical funded attempt to destroy advanced market economies in the west, while transferring hundreds of $billions to leftist politicians and political activist groups. The great green energy scam is similarly enabled by radical backers of leftist politicians, in an attempt to funnel many $billions to crony green capitalist investors who back the leftist politicians.

All of this leftist corruption and green slime leads to economic decay and a progressive impoverishment of ordinary people — and a grand scale destruction of opportunity and hope.

One of the most important reasons why leftist governments always fail: The Knowledge Problem. Thomas Sowell’s book “Knowledge and Decisions” is a thorough working out of the knowledge problem in book length form, but FA Hayek’s essay: The Use of Knowledge is a helpful introduction. Anyone who even begins to discuss political economic ideas without a grounding in the knowledge problem is by definition ignorant and acting stupidly.

We have seen what leftist political and economic policies do to parts of Europe, Asia, Latin America, and now the destruction is entering mainstream Europe and the Anglosphere through backdoor scams of radical green and immigration policies, along with other policies that destroy opportunity for ordinary people.

The guilty and corrupt include leaders in government, news media, academia, political lobbies and activist groups, popular media, foundations, and other large cultural and societal institutions.

As we have seen in Eastern Europe, Communist Asia, and Latin America, there is always a reckoning for leftist idiocy and corruption. And there will be a reckoning for the wealthy radical elite who are attempting to guide Europe and the Anglosphere into the deep quagmire of utter corruption. But it will be too late for many of you.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Try to learn as many of the skills and competencies of Dangerous Children as you can.

Special Bonus: Why the US Will Collapse

With Link to Source and rebuttal

(1) The rising US public debt will crush the US dollar
(2) The US is not competitive!
(3) The US has a weak education system
(4) The US middle class is dying
(5) We can’t raise taxes on the rich!
(6) America’s poor need more education
(7) America’s poor at risk of starvation!
(8) America’s military grows weaker!
(9) The US economy is unsustainable!
__ America is Doomed List of Reasons with Rebuttals

For the best argument that US is the least likely nation in the world to collapse, look over some of these maps from Peter Zeihan, then read his book: “The Accidental Superpower.” The video below presents a one hour outline of Zeihan’s argument for the continuing supremacy of the US.

2016 Investment Summit – Peter Zeihan from Brightworth on Vimeo.

The biggest problems the US faces are ones that neither Peter Zeihan nor the editors at FabiusMaximus.com mention. They are problems with the human substrate of the nation, including a dysgenic decline, the politically correct programme of academic lobotomy in universities, a general dumbing down of the population via public education, news & popular media, and intentional government policy designed to reduce economic and political freedoms via legislature, bureaucracy, the courts, and executive action in the international arena.

The intelligent response to this designed, comprehensive programme of decline needs to be elegant and carried out at depths of action beyond what the professional declinists can ever understand. Violence is the last resort of the incompetent, as Isaac Asimov would say.

If Zeihan is any judge of the geopolitical gestalt, time is definitely on North America’s side.

Posted in Climate, Dysgenics, geopolitics, Government, Green Quagmire, Politics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

China Turns to Ukraine, CEE, and Finland/Scandinavia to Bypass Russia

Despite China’s close relationship with Russia, Ukraine’s rival, China has purchased outright and licensed a number of Ukrainian aviation and naval platforms, such as the ex Varyag aircraft carrier, the Zubr hovercraft and the An-178. Antonov itself has also provided design and technical advice for the Chinese ARJ-21 region jetliner and Y-20 heavy transport aircraft.

__ Source

China Turns to Ukraine Source

China Turns to Ukraine
Source


China is deeply interested in what Ukraine can do for China, including building advanced and powerful jet turbine engines for the world’s largest jet aircraft — and the entire giant aircraft itself — for as long as China takes to build its own versions of the plane in China. But as for the turbines, China cannot build military quality jet turbines without outside help — and Ukraine is willing and able to lend a hand to the Middle Kingdom for as long as necessary.

There are other reasons why China is interested in Ukraine, among other nations of Central and Eastern Europe, and Northern Europe.

Some countries are of particular interest to China. Among them is Ukraine, where China’s interest is driven by several key factors. These factors include Ukraine’s geographic location and its potential to become a major transit hub within [the Silk Road], in addition to the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU, and Ukraine’s agricultural industry. __ Why China is Interested in Ukraine

When combined with the increasingly Chinese-dominated economies of Central Asia, the economies of Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe will provide an “economic encirclement” of Russia by the dragon — providing significant leverage in future negotiations with the ailing bear.

China cannot keep up with the advanced world technologically, without big help from the west:

China continues to depend on technology from Europe and the United States… Chinese companies are good at incremental innovation, but they lag behind advanced countries when it comes to disruptive innovation.

Less than 6% of Chinese patents are protected by global patents, compared to 49% of U.S. patents. Fifty percent of total exports and more than 90% of China’s high-tech exports are produced by foreign companies operating there. __ Globalist

China’s Trade with Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe Grows

China Trade with Central and Eastern Asia

China Trade with Central and Eastern Asia


China is going to great lengths to create a grand economic encirclement of Russia, in order to better trade with a more vibrant and innovative Europe. It is clear that China prefers the better quality goods it can obtain from Europe to the shoddy goods offered by a corrupt and ailing Russia.

… what does it mean that China is making a special effort to engage with Central and Eastern Europe? China’s “march West” policy is even more ambitious than previously thought. The “New Silk Road” as envisioned by the new leadership could stretch all the way from China to Central Europe — much like the original Silk Road. This is especially relevant in light of recent research suggesting that China’s economic relationships often encourage its partners to lend their political support in international fora. The more countries that welcome and come to rely on China’s economic aid, the more powerful China could become in international bodies such as the UN. __ source

Poland is one of the key targets for Chinese trade and cooperation in CEE.

China eyes deeper financial and military ties to Finland.

… China is a very important cooperation partner of Finland, and that bilateral defense cooperation has a huge potential.

He said Finland was ready to improve exchanges and cooperation in such areas as personnel training and military drills. __ Source

Trade between China and other scandinavian countries such as Sweden is likewise robust.

Russia Should Consider itself “Encircled” — by China!

Combining ever-deeper Chinese involvement in the Russian Far East, Mongolia, Central Asia, Turkey, Central-Eastern-Northern Europe, and a more active Chinese presence in the Arctic, China is effectively bracketing Russia from every direction.

Future Global Stability Peter Zeihan

Future Global Stability
Peter Zeihan


This represents a huge gamble for China, with an economy that itself is built upon a rapidly growing inverse pyramid of bubbles. Forcing Russia to become China’s “comfort woman” may appeal to some sense of justice in China’s leaders, but if both nations break into clashing factions it will avail China little in the end.

Regardless, China’s grand Silk Road power scheme points at the heart of Europe, via Central Asia and CEE. China will need Europe’s innovations and dynamism for some time to come.

Russia is merely a source for raw natural resources, a competitor in global arms sales, and the future water supply and breadbasket of New China. Or so the plan goes.

Posted in China, Europe | 2 Comments

Is Your Life NOT a Journey?

Longer and longer lives for fewer and fewer people born in the civilised world. What is it all about? Is it possible that our “metaphor” for life — a journey from birth to death — prevents us from living the time we have?

2007 Cohort Life Expectancy at Birth

2007 Cohort Life Expectancy at Birth


Most of us live in a societal trance from cradle to grave, without being offered meaningful alternatives. From right wing conservative to left wing radical to revolutionary or insurrectionist race/religion warrior, it is all part of the lifelong mass delusionary flow of human mind and protoplasm. Can it really be a journey from nowhere to nowhere, stuffed with impassioned ideologies, drugs, and other diversions to occupy our time? A commonplace pattern for rich and poor — but is it real?

Fast Journey to Comfortable Irrelevance, then Death?

This is the journey: We learn in school that we are meant to be educated, make a “living,” then relax into a much-deserved retirement before dying. Some die before reaching retirement age, others reach the age of retirement without the resources to live comfortably, and many reach a comfortable retirement only to descend into alcoholism or other states of disease or listless meaninglessness.

Now that we are living longer and more comfortable lives, perhaps we could also live more mindful lives as well. We are slaves to metaphors such as “life is a journey” without considering what the alternatives might be. A journey can be all-absorbing, generating many short-term and longer-term anxieties over legions of worries that emerge at every step.

Many see the journey as a “race to the finish.” A journey is supposed to have an end point, but if we are not careful we tend to obsess over “the end.” This dark obsession can overshadow everything else.

Alan Watts – Why Your Life Is Not A Journey from David Lindberg on Vimeo.

Alan Watts was a non-doctrinairian philosopher who often played off of Eastern Philosophy, but whose thoughts were far larger than a geographic or “school of thought” label. Instead of a blindered journey, he promoted a mindful awareness that had the potential to transcend most trance-life metaphors.

Words are Slippery and Thoughts are Viscous

Everything we do and accomplish will be encapsulated between our births and our deaths — a “journey” of sorts. But within the overall journey will be dozens or hundreds of smaller journeys. And it is often the case that the pauses within a journey are what make the journey worthwhile. The stops along the way. The whimsical side trips.

But metaphors that begin as liberators often end as prison walls. And so it can be with the “life is a journey” metaphor. We need to grow, to experience rites of passage, to build skills and competencies, to create a space that is ours to work and live and grow within. And play. We also need to keep faith with those to whom we have made commitments.

But if we begin our lives with larger and fresher metaphors than “life is a journey,” it is likely that we will open to larger realities. We will be more likely to commit to people and causes that lead us into a more expansive and abundant future — a place of more mindful and fulfilling possibilities than we would otherwise have dreamed.

We have time, if we can slip our own traps and choose to open the doors and pass through.

Note:

In the Al Fin Dangerous Child Method of Education and Child-Raising, we show children of all ages many pathways to a larger journey beyond the mass delusion. A better future requires a more mindful and competent cohort of humans. The way to the next level — a more expansive and abundant human future — involves both building up and breaking down. Disruptive innovation, creative destruction and transformation. It is not for those who crave their long journey comforts and live by long journey platitudes.

Posted in Philosophy, Pram | Tagged | Leave a comment

Grand Triumphalism Against a Darker Background of Decline and Decay

High Speed Silk Road Routes to All of Asia and Europe

Xi Jinping, 63, the president of China and general secretary of the Communist Party, wants to revive the myth and build a New Silk Road, in large parts along the old trade route. It would mark the return of a legend. For some time now, many of his speeches have included references to “yi dai yi lu,” or “a belt, a road.” It is a gigantic project, and China envisions about 60 countries being involved, or about half of humanity.

CRH380 (China Railway High-speed) Harmony bullet trains are seen at a high-speed train maintenance base in Wuhan, Hubei province, in this file photo taken December 25, 2012. A team of Chinese firms, along with the Export-Import Bank of China, are interested in designing, building, financing and maintaining California's proposed 800-mile high-speed rail project. REUTERS/Stringer CHINA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN CHINA

(China Railway High-speed) Harmony bullet trains are seen at a high-speed train maintenance base in Wuhan, Hubei province, in this file photo taken December 25, 2012. A team of Chinese firms, along with the Export-Import Bank of China, are interested in designing, building, financing and maintaining California’s proposed 800-mile high-speed rail project. REUTERS/Stringer
Source

China wants to expand trade along the route and develop infrastructure. Beijing has earmarked $40 billion (€36 billion euros) for the project, to be invested in building new roads, and in railroads, pipelines and ports from Lithuanian to the Horn of Africa, Sri Lanka to Israel, and Pakistan to Iran. Two railroad lines lead to Germany, one from Zhengzhou to Hamburg and the other from Chongqing to Duisburg.

__ Spiegel.de


Follow the route of the new silk road from Xinjiang to Belarus

While Struggling to Show a Triumphal Image to the World, Foundations Crack and Crumble

What worries Chinese leaders most is not the border conflicts they have created in the South China Sea and India but rather past mistakes that threaten to destroy China from within. This includes a growing worker shortage and an unsustainable mountain of bad debt. __ Die Fast or Die Slow

Debt, Demography, Decay

China’s mountain of debt calls into question most of the grand plans of expansion and conquest that China’s leaders have announced to a restless and largely impoverished public. A rapid shrinking of China’s workforce and exponential aging of the overall population raises the question of “who will do the work and fund future pensions?” And the premature decay and collapse of Chinese construction across the nation forces honest observers to wonder how long any of it will last.

As for China’s vaunted new military, China can not even design and build a reliable military turbine engine. The dragon’s desperate dependence upon cyber-espionage and technology theft reveals some the many deep cracks underlying China’s grand goals.

Understanding the massive China bubble will give one a clear advantage in understanding China’s trajectory. Understanding the depth of corruption in China will add considerably more perspective.

[Chinese] market plunges are early manifestations of a historic slowdown in the Chinese economy, one that is bringing the country’s soaring growth rates down to earth after three decades of expansion. But the current slowdown pales in comparison with a looming societal crisis: In the years ahead, as China’s Baby Boomers reach retirement age, the country will transition from having a relatively youthful population, and an abundant workforce, to a population with far fewer people in their productive prime.

… With the number of working-age Chinese men already declining—China’s working-age population shrank by 4.87 million people last year—labor is in short supply. As wages go up, maintaining the world’s largest standing army is becoming prohibitively expensive. Nor is the situation likely to improve: After wages, rising pension costs are the second-biggest cause of increased military spending. __ Atlantic – China in Twilight

China rose to economic power on a foundation of large-scale technology transfer and massive foreign investment. The foreign investment is in rapid retreat, and most of the technology transfer to China these days comes from outright theft, piracy, and espionage — rather than through voluntary contracts, as in the 1980s and 1990s.

China’s growing mountain of debt built upon debt, its market volatility, its forests of rapidly crumbling ghost cities, all reveal an expanding system of capital misallocation and deep corruption which cannot be reformed — at least not by the current mindset of Chinese leadership.

China is in Decline, But so is Russia

Russians Today Shorter and Weaker than Their Parents

Russians coming to adulthood now are approximately two centimeters shorter and much weaker than those who did so as recently as the 1970s and 1980s, the result not of genetic degradation but rather of a wide variety of environmental factors, according to researchers at the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences…

… Not only are Russians coming of age today shorter than their parents, the Center says; but their bodies have smaller muscle masses – and that has economic consequences. Today, “approximately 30 percent” of young Russians will be unable to perform jobs that require physical exertion. __ http://www.mk.ru/social/the-first-of-september/2016/08/30/rost-rossiyskikh-detey-s-nachala-veka-sokratilsya-na-2-santimetra.html via WindowonEurasia

Russia is facing many of the same economic and demographic problems as China, except much worse. The quality of Russian sperm is in rapid decline, and so apparently is the physical quality of Russian male bodies. No wonder most of the Olympic medals won by “Russia” in the recent Rio Olympics were won by non-ethnic Russians.

Declining China and Russia Compete for Primacy over all of Asia

But only one of the nations-in-decay can dominate most of the Asian landmass. Both have worked hard to project images of unstoppable power and energy. But a deep, open-eyed, and open-minded look at both the dragon and the bear will reveal that as bad as its problems are, China has more staying power than its neighbor to the north and northwest.

The new Silk Road will not be as grand, expansive, and all-empowering as Chinese propagandists attempt to portray. But it will facilitate the economic encirclement of Russia which China is seeking. And as rapidly as the forces of decay are working on China’s visceral foundations, they are eating away at Russia’s even more rapidly.

A Natural Relentless Ongoing Incursion by China Into the Former Russia

A Natural Relentless Ongoing Incursion by China Into the Former Russia

China will take full advantage of Russia’s growing weaknesses, while it is still able to do so. Since China has become the go-to supplier for most of Russia’s electronic and other high tech military needs, China will be able to control any response by Russia’s military to Chinese provocations. Assuming Russia can still man a meaningful military when China makes its move.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

Try to build a relatively safe and effective base of operations in a good location. Geopolitical shifts are certain, many of them quite significant.

No despotic government will stand by and watch the type of decay described above, without attempting to pre-empt the inevitable fallout. Putin is a fountain of bad decisions, and his supply is nowhere near exhausted. Xi is only marginally more savvy, but that margin is likely to provide a meaningful difference in outcome.

The time is coming when Dangerous Children will be needed far out of proportion to their actual supply. Do what you can.

More:

Desperate Putin: Independent Levada Centre now listed as “Foreign Agent” by Kremlin It is getting much harder to glean reliable information from the suddenly darker empire.

Rosstat getting better at “lying with statistics”

Like a turtle, Russia’s economy has fallen and cannot get up

If world affairs were a card game, Putin would have a hand that at its very best contained, let’s say, three eights. __ Russia Not a Superpopwer

It’s not that Putin is that good at poker. It’s that he’s playing against complete idiots.

Posted in China, Russia, Russian Decline | Tagged , | 15 Comments

WHO’s Afraid of a Little Zika?

Zika Structure Source

Zika Structure
Source


Zika can make a pretty photograph, but when spread from mother to fetus in the first trimester of pregnancy, the picture is not so attractive. The World Health Organization (WHO) has its hands full just trying to keep up with global spread of the emergent virus in all its variations. Clinical and laboratory scientists are just beginning to fill in the enormous gaps in knowledge about this emerging menace.

A new report looking at brain imaging of infants and fetuses with Zika infections reveals what can happen when a fetus gets the virus.

In the study, published in the journal Radiology, the researchers looked at brain scans of 45 babies and fetuses in Brazil who were infected with Zika. They report that while microcephaly is one of the well-known complications associated with the virus, they also observed several other brain abnormalities like gray- and white-matter loss, issues with the brain stem and fluid buildup.

… “It’s not just the small brain, it’s that there’s a lot more damage,” study author Dr. Deborah Levine, a professor of radiology at Harvard Medical School, told the New York Times. “The abnormalities that we see in the brain suggest a very early disruption of the brain development process.”

__ Source


Up until recently, the media focus has been on Latin America and the Caribbean. But with the recent epidemic in Singapore — and new cases of a different strain in Africa — biomedical scientists and epidemiologists are growing aware of a larger threat.

The 10 Countries with Greatest Risks of Exposure

  1. India (1.2 billion at risk in peak month)
  2. China (240 million at risk in peak month)
  3. Indonesia (197 million at risk in peak month)
  4. Nigeria (179 million at risk in peak month)
  5. Pakistan (168 million at risk in peak month)
  6. Bangladesh (163 million at risk in peak month)
  7. Vietnam (83 million at risk in peak month)
  8. Philippines (70 million at risk in peak month)
  9. Thailand (59 million at risk in peak month
  10. Burma (51 million at risk in peak month)

India is particularly worrying because of its huge population living with climates favourable to the spread of the virus, not to mention the fact that there is plenty of standing water in which mosquitos can breed.

“Hopefully we will not see the same kind of situation as occurred in Brazil,” Dr. Khan said of India.

Source

Zika Exposures Due to Spread Source

Zika Exposures Due to Spread
Source

“WHO recommends practising safer sex or abstinence for a period of six months for men and women who are returning from areas of active transmission… to prevent Zika virus infection through sexual transmission,” the agency said. __ Safe Sex for Six Months

The Emergence of Zika is Occurring at a Time When other Sexually Transmitted Infections are Growing more Difficult to Treat

Incidence and prevalence of sexually spread diseases are particularly high in sub Saharan Africa and among African-derived persons living around the globe. As African birth rates continue to explode — along with African dysfunction of all types — the addition of new medical difficulties in treating common infections in Africans is unwelcome news.

The infections causing extra worry these days are gonorrhea, chlamydia, and syphilis. The World Health Organization (WHO) issued a warning statement Tuesday that some antibiotics are now failing due to overuse and misuse, though gonorrhea has developed the strongest resistance to antibiotics of the three bacterial infections. “Because of widespread resistance, older and cheaper antibiotics have lost their effectiveness in treatment of the infection,” WHO said. The organization recommended new guidelines for treating the STIs, no longer suggesting doctors prescribe an entire class of antibiotics — quinolones — because strains of gonorrhea resistant to it have formed across the globe. __ http://www.thefrisky.com/2016-09-02/gonorrhea-and-other-stis-are-becoming-more-and-more-untreatable/

Abuse of antibiotics is particularly egregious in the third world, where even the strongest antibiotics can be sold over the counter for treating relatively minor illnessess — or even to treat viral diseases, which do not typically respond to conventional antibiotics.

Is the Worry Over Zika and Microcephaly Overblown?

Only if you have an ideological agenda that trumps genuine medical concerns. Zika does not usually cause microcephaly in children born to infected mothers. Microcephaly occurs in children of mothers who are not infected with Zika — and always has. Other viral infections contribute to the occurrence of microcephaly, as do some chemical and other environmental factors.

Biomedical causation is far more complex than most persons can understand. For example, microcephaly would continue to arise even if all Zika viruses were eliminated. At the same time, it is likely that the world-wide incidence of microcephaly would be lower without the influence of Zika virus during the first trimester of pregnancy in infected mothers.

Other complications of Zika virus infection — in children and in adults — may prove worse than microcephaly. Even so, the spectre of existential risk hovers around the implied threat of any large scale global pandemic that renders large parts of the population mentally incapable of contributing to normal human existence.

It is Too Early to Know All the Facts and Dynamics

So far, Zika seems to spread most readily in warm weather climates such as one finds in the tropics. But viruses — and other disease-causing organisms and vectors — are crafty in their shapeshifting capacities. Remember the Ebola scare of 2014 and 2015? Imagine an Ebola strain that goes airborne, touching down in populous cities around the world almost simultaneously. No mosquitoes required.

Ebola is like a wildfire that burns itself out quickly if confined. Zika has a more subtle impact, and hosts typically remain infectious via sexual contact for a much longer time. And if you look at a virus like HIV, you see the other end of the contagion spectrum, with a deadly virus that can also remain infectious for decades. Three distinct viral types that require completely different approaches for treatment and eventual eradication.

With Zika, perhaps it is the combination of sexual spread and fetal infection / brain damage that is most worrying. Mosquito nets, repellant, and insecticides cannot control that avenue of attack once it has been opened.

It is not Really Zika that is the Problem

If humans were brighter and more free to act, they could deal with threats like Zika every day of the week without fail, achieving eradication in every case where desired. The fact that humans suffer such angst and uncertainty over a relatively small — although disturbing — threat of this nature reveals the underlying fatal flaw in the modern human enterprise.

Obvious, but perhaps requiring some explanation in the future.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. Think outside the box, in the ways of disruptive innovation and creative destruction. Defy the overlords by breaking through the bounds of conventional thought and wisdom.

It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Posted in Biomedicine, Demographics, Epidemiology, Zika | Tagged | Leave a comment

Crime Rates Rise in Cities: Is Moving to the Country a Viable Alternative?

Violent Crime Rising in Cities

Beaten and Mugged in Birmingham Source

Beaten and Mugged in Birmingham
Source

In addition to a large increase in homicides, major cities in the US have experienced more than 1,000 more robberies, almost 2,000 more aggravated assaults and more than 600 non-fatal shootings in 2016 compared to this time last year. The only category of violent crime not reflecting an increase when compared to last year is rape.
The 316 homicides reported by the Chicago Police Department were by far the most of any law enforcement agency included in the survey, a 48% increase over last year. The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department said there were 110 homicides so far this year, compared to 85 in 2015. San Jose’s 25 homicides more than doubled the amount during the same period last year.
Data for New York City was notably absent from the report. __ http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politics/violent-crime-report-us-cities-homicides-rapes/

Besides a flood tide of rising violence, cost of living in cities is also rising in Obama’s America. City dwellers are being caught in a three-way vice between violent crime, rising living costs, and corrupt and dysfunctional governments. Is it time to consider a move to the countryside?

The following is reprinted from an article first published here in 2013:

We live at a time when western societies are balanced on a razor’s edge. On the one side is the potential for a rapid explosion of technological wonders, resulting in longer and healthier lives with greater and greater opportunities to fulfill a wide range of goals. On the other side of the edge is a demographic nightmare, growing worse by the day, being made worse by inept and corrupt government policies — threatening to obliterate the promise of a better future for everyone.

People have been moving from the countryside to the cities for hundreds of years, since industrial times. Most opportunities for education and employment exist in or near cities, drawing many of the most ambitious and capable young people of each generation. But recent demographic trends lending to greater violence and decay in many cities of western societies is giving peace-loving people second thoughts. Things are even beginning to get rough in some of the better suburbs.

It is not surprising that many people who are living in cities-in-decay might begin to contemplate moving to areas of lower crime, with a less hectic pace of life, with cleaner air to breathe and darker night skies where one can actually see more than a few stars.

But there are significant obstacles to living in the countryside, besides the long commutes to work that some former city-dwellers must endure. For many young moderns, the difficulty in finding high speed internet is a deal-killer. For such people it is just as well that they do not make the attempt to move too far from densely populated areas.

More significant issues of self-reliance, involving clean water, sanitation, heating, year-round food availability, the ability to survive severe weather, and so on, can separate the wannabes from the prospering country dweller. Also consider the distance you may be putting between yourselves and people you care about.

These are not trivial questions when considering whether to pull up stakes and move further out, for most moderns.

Dangerous Children will have been trained to self-reliance like a hand to a glove, but we are only able to help develop but a few Dangerous Children with each generation. Most educated and intelligent city dwellers are going to have to take the time to learn what they need to know on their own time.

How does one go about learning? The best fonts of advice on smoothly transitioning away from city conveniences, is the wisdom of people who have already made the change. Much good advice is available on the internet at websites such as Countryfarm Lifestyles, and Backwoods Home. There are many other similarly helpful websites, many of them linked at Rural Revolution blog.

On the web, one step deeper into self-reliant topics will take you to the prepper and survival blogs. Here is a good link list for survival/prepper websites and blogs.

But by far your best bet for learning how to thrive in the countryside, is face to face personal relationships with those who are doing it well now. Check out different communities of interest, and talk to the people in town who sell vital supplies. Ask them about the demands of the climate, access to various goods and equipment, the quality of different services in the area. Explain your goals and ask who you should talk to. And be sure to talk to any accessible neighbors before you settle on a specific property.

Country folk sometimes have quieter, more reserved ways, and can sometimes be reticent when you are drawing out information. But a lot of country folk were once city folk, or spend a lot of time with city/suburban relatives. Television, videos, and the internet have also gone a long way toward reducing the traditional cultural differences between city and country. Depending on the area, country people can be more religious than urban dwellers, so respect any such differences if you plan to live there.

All of that aside, just as knowing your way around a city can be a life or death matter, so can knowing your way around the mountains, forests, deserts, rural coastlines, and other types of countryside. If you think you may be serious about moving, begin your preparation years ahead of time.

And don’t make your plans based merely on some conspiracy theory or another about the collapse and doom of civilisation. That may not happen for another thirty years.😉

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

For those who want their children to be well prepared for whatever side of the razor we may end up on, consider Dangerous Child training.

Regardless, for yourself, it is never too late for a dangerous childhood.

More: A Practical Plan for Survival (in disasters and emergencies), an article from Survival Blog

But remember, while most country dwellers will have taken some of the above precautions — and will willingly assist their neighbors in need — the situation during a disaster in the city may be different. If you are a city prepper, don’t broadcast your “prepped” status. If a disaster lasts long enough, store shelves will be stripped clean, and the marauders will be looking for private stores to loot.

Your best safety is to be found within a community of like-minded, skilled, competent, and well-prepared persons.

More: Where is the best place to raise a Dangerous Child — the city or the countryside?

Infographic: The 20 Most Violent Cities Worldwide | Statista

Thanks to indiscriminate immigration in Europe and the Anglosphere, violent crime rates in cities are likely to increase. Best to make provisions, or make a change.

Posted in Blacks and crime, City vs Country, Crime, Survival Prepping | Tagged , | 3 Comments

A Bridge Too Far

The construction of Temporary Bridge No.2 between Tuzla and the navigable part of the Strait of Kerch, at the construction site of a road-and-rail bridge which is to link Crimea to mainland Russia. Source: Sergei Bobylev/TASS

A Bridge to Who Knows Where?

The prospects for Russia’s new bridge from the mainland to Crimea are unclear. In order to pay for the grand connecting link, Russia will have to forego much-needed bridge construction and repair elsewhere in the country. Russia is already desperately in arrears with regards to its massive bridge-building obligations.

The grand new bridge to Crimea represents what may turn out to be the straw that breaks the bear’s back.

The contract went to companies belonging to billionaire Arkady Rotenberg, a close Putin friend. Rotenberg was a prime developer of the Sochi Olympics, which ran into billions of dollars in cost overruns. __ NPR

The engineering problems already besetting the Crimea bridge project are symbolic of the general corruption and ineptitude that threatens the future of virtually all of Russia’s bridges and the rest of its mostly Soviet-era infrastructure — and the very society it supports.

A report by the Institute of Transport Economics and Transport Policy at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow has compared the structure of road networks in different countries. Canada, China, Germany and the United States have neat grid-like patterns, with transport links established between all states, provinces and territories, while Russia has a radial structure, with all roads leading in the direction of Moscow, where they run into a traffic jam on the ring road around the capital.

The most expensive and important piece of road infrastructure is bridges – and Russia has more serious problems with them than with roads in general.

__ Russia’s Desperate Bridges

Happy Times in Russia Source

Happy Times in Russia
Source

Russia’s Economy Began Failing in Early 2012 and has Gotten Appreciably Worse Since

In 2012 investment stopped growing. In 2014 investment started to decline. That’s the main reason why Russia’s economy is contracting.

__ Why Russia’s Economy is Failing

The Kremlin is desperate to finance pet projects, and as a result bridges collapse, residential buildings explode and collapse, roads degenerate to potholes and rubble, and schools and hospitals become shadows of their former selves.

For over 2 years now, the Kremlin has been stealing funds from its infrastructure reserves in order to pay for higher priority budget items — including saving banks from failure, financing extravagant sports events, building bombs to destroy hospitals in Syria, to make mischief in Moldova/Ukraine/Georgia etc., and funneling cash into the accounts of Kremlin insiders.

Russia’s Power Grid Held Together by Spit and Grit

the strange, retro world of the Russian power grid. Operating without much new investment since the heyday of the Soviet Union, it is showing its age. Experts who study and have worked on the Russian power system describe it as congested, undersized, monstrously inefficient, slow to repair and in need of $750 billion of investment in the next two decades.

“Russia’s centralized energy system, once the basis of the country’s energy security and — thanks to economies of scale — a guarantee of cheap electricity, is in the midst of a deep strategic crisis,” Olga Prokofyeva, a board member of the Energy Group, an energy consultancy in St. Petersburg, said in an email.

Just where the money will come from has never been more uncertain. The Russian economy is teetering on recession ___ http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060010742

[+] Russia’s electric grid relies on many power plants that are, by U.S. standards, well beyond retirement age. Graphic courtesy of IHS. Source

[+] Russia’s electric grid relies on many power plants that are, by U.S. standards, well beyond retirement age. Graphic courtesy of IHS.
Source

Other critical infrastructural systems in deadly need of upgrade besides highways, bridges, power grids, residential buildings, etc. include health care, education, energy pipelines, and the rapidly decaying river transport system. Compared to the Russian infrastructure crisis, the much ballyhooed US “infrastructure crisis” is a phantom menace.

Ethnic Russian Demographics on One-Way Trip to Hell

It is impossible to obtain reliable demographic statistics from the Russian state, but using the best numbers available it is clear that the ethnic Russian population is sinking fast. Contrary to the “happy happy news stories” from true believers such as Mark Adomanis, Russia’s key population group — its “ethnic Russians” — is being replaced across the empire from the outside in. (see link above for details and graphics)

The ultra-precarious position occupied by Russia Today is largely papered over and ignored by the mainstream skankstream. Aided by a weak US president, a weak EU, and a China that is willing to play along for now, Putin has been allowed to project a Potemkin image of Russia far out of proportion to its actual might, ability, and influence.

 A perfect symbol of Chinese-Russian cooperation is provided by a half-built bridge between the two countries. As a picture of the site shows, China has finished its half of the bridge, but the Russians have done nothing but create a tent city on the Russian side of the border (zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/1834438.html). via

A perfect symbol of Chinese-Russian cooperation is provided by a half-built bridge between the two countries. As a picture of the site shows, China has finished its half of the bridge, but the Russians have done nothing but create a tent city on the Russian side of the border (zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/1834438.html).
via


The half-built bridge pictured above barely hints at the silly pretence that modern Russia has become.

Russia’s Decapitation Hazard

Moscow is the central city of the entire Russian empire. Besides representing a huge bottleneck to national transportation, it also presents a command and control chokehold which China is likely to exploit and which modern Russia can in no way solve. Everything in Russia must come into and go out of Moscow. This represents a “decapitation hazard” which few other modern powers face.

Russia needs massive critical reforms to attract the level of investment it needs. But Russia is ruled by an ageing dictator who clearly feels threatened by the needed reforms. Why is that obvious? Because Putin has been promising these reforms for over 15 years and not once has he made serious strides to implement. Quite the opposite, in fact.

So Russia will continue to focus on doing mischief in other lands, investing just enough in its military production to keep the corrupt military-industrial complex running — and to maintain the Potemkin facade it presents to the world. Only China appears to see through this charade, and the dragon is biding its time until it is time to act against the already-dying bear.

More on dangers of blowback from next-door war

Mortality among ethnic Russians rising due to overall ageing of population AND due to Putin cutbacks in health care system

Deathmatch: Putin vs. Putin

Posted in Putin, Russian Decline | Tagged | Leave a comment

Turmoil in Central Asia Brings China : Russia Great Game Into Play

Central Asia Wikipedia "Great Game"

Central Asia
Wikipedia “Great Game”

The passing of a dictator in Uzbekistan and a terror attack on the Chinese embassy in Kyrgystan highlight the exploding instability of Central Asia — the past dominion of Russia and the future hope of China.

Just two months ago, China’s leader Xi visited the now-passed dictator Karimov of Uzbekistan in Central Asia, to celebrate a grand expansion of economic cooperation between the two countries. All of that careful planning is now at critical risk, with the passing of Uzbekistan’s Karimov.

China is one of the largest trade-economic and investment partners of Uzbekistan. The volumes of mutual trade are dynamically increasing. Bilateral trade turnover exceeded US$4.1 billion in 2015. In four months of 2016 the trade turnover reached US$1.4 billion.
__ China’s Big Investment in Central Asia at Risk

China Aims to Take Over the Region in Grand Silk Road Style

China's Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Source

China’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
Source


Uzbekistan is at the pivot of Central Asia.

Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s most populous country, with its largest military, thus clout within the group, as witnessed by the recent head of state summit in Tashkent on June 23-24, 2016.

During this meeting, China vowed to upgrade its relations with Uzbekistan to that of ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ and celebrated the inauguration of the Qamchiq Tunnel, Central Asia’s longest railway tunnel – a key Silk Road infrastructure project.

Uzbekistan is also a valuable source of raw materials for China, notably uranium, natural gas and gold (the country has the world’s fourth largest reserves). More importantly, however, is the role Uzbekistan plays in connecting China with LNG suppliers further to the west. Uzbekistan is the linchpin in the Central Asia-China Pipeline: all three lines run through Uzbek territory, as will the fourth (Line D); currently under construction. __ http://globalriskinsights.com/2016/09/if-islam-karimov-is-dead-chinas-lng-threatened/

Central Asian Economies Are Suffering: Like Russia’s, Like China’s

From Beijing to Moscow to nations in between, economies are being squeezed. Besides taking the brunt of the ongoing political and economic uncertainties, Central Asia is at risk of falling to the global epidemic of radical Muslim dysfunction and violence.

But China is building big stakes in the region which may stabilise Central Asia from radical Islam. These investments are often at the expense of Russian influence, lending weight to the concept of a new “Great Game” in Central Asia between China and Russia. And don’t forget India.

Apart from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, China has major stakes in Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as part of the strategic Belt and Road initiative to revive the ancient Silk Road. “From an energy security perspective, China’s cooperation with Turkmenistan is essential to ensure gas supplies. There are now four pipelines from Turkmenistan that carry huge amount of gas to China. Kazakhstan, on the other hand is a major supplier of petroleum. Uzbekistan has huge uranium reserves, and Tajikistan is an anchor of non-traditional security,” observed Dr. Hu. “So there are different priorities with different countries…” __ Terror Attack in Kyrgyz

China Being Called to Exert Stronger Force Against Terrorism in Central Asia

Radical Islam is expanding in Central Asia at an alarming rate, with nations at the brink of civil war and open insurgency. China’s investments are spread across the region, and the already-struggling Middle Kingdom has much to lose if the region is lost to the combined mobs of terrorism and criminality. If Central Asia falls to radical terror, China’s west is suddenly at risk of being overrun. The same is true for Russia’s south — indeed the entire of Russia west of the Urals.

China’s Grand Silk Road Project is at Risk

The first cargo train from China is set to reach Afghanistan on September 9, signalling Beijing’s effort to consolidate ties with Kabul, as part of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative along the ancient Silk Road.

The train left China’s eastern city of Nantong on August 25, to cover a 15 day journey to Hairatan, on Afghanistan’s border with Uzbekistan.

On the way, it is crossing the Alataw pass on the China-Kazakhstan border before heading into Uzbekistan towards Termez. From Termez, once the springboard of Soviet Union’s intervention in Afghanistan, branch lines also head towards Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan towards the east, and westwards to Uzbekistan’s cultural icons—Samarkand and Bukhara. __ http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/chinas-first-cargo-train-to-afghanistan-fuels-one-belt-one-road-obor-engine/article9042851.ece

Beijing is already risking a devastatingly hard economic landing after building a mountain of debt so tall it penetrates the planetary atmosphere. If its carefully laid plans of expansion in Central Asia (not to mention Africa and Siberia) fail, the repercussions could be Earth-shaking.

Central Asia is Distant and Out of Mind

Westerners never consider Central Asia when contemplating the great forces at play in the world. But that is a monumental mistake which will come back to haunt them.

China’s grand, patient encirclement of Russia pivots around Central Asia — from Siberia in the East to Finland in the northwest. Beijing’s new anti-terrorism and Silk Road initiatives in Central Asia provide the cover under which extensive infiltration and displacement of Russian interests in the pivot can occur.

Chinese leadership understands the forces of disintegration which Putin has put into play inside Russia. The bear now has limited time to create suffering and mischief, and to generate fear and anxiety at home and abroad. The Potemkin facade which the KGB operative cum President has carefully built cannot sustain the forces of collapse which he himself has put into play. Central Asia is becoming a nightmare for Putin, along with the growing number of separatist regions within the Russian empire itself.

Most readers only need to be aware of the forces at play. Be aware, but focus mainly on responsibilities and projects closer to your own backyard.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late for a Dangerous Childhood.

More:

Some things China and Russia have in common

Why many consumers of internet news find it difficult to see through the smoke screen: It’s meant to be that way.

Political climate in Russia crude and brutal: The country is unprepared for what China has in mind for it.

China and the middle east: This is not the Ming dynasty’s insular China

“Since Xi Jinping became president, they no longer talk about keeping a low profile,” says Paul Haenle, head of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing. “If you discuss it with the Chinese they will say they haven’t abandoned that concept, but the truth in my view is that they have.”

As for the principle of non-interference abroad, he says, “they insist they abide by it, but if you sat down for a few minutes you could think of 15 examples where they’re not doing that any more.”

… Russia is fundamentally a fairly weak power; the country that could dramatically alter the security picture around the world is China.

More:

After China “handles” Russia, it will face Europe. Can Europe break away from the corrupt Brussells approach, or will it about-face and take the Swiss attitude?

Posted in China | Tagged | 2 Comments

The Tragic Consequences of Forced Egalitarianism

Group Differences in Aptitude Gottfredson, L. S. (2006). Social consequences of group differences in cognitive ability (Consequencias sociais das diferencas de grupo em habilidade cognitiva). In C. E. Flores-Mendoza & R. Colom (Eds.), Introducau a psicologia das diferencas individuais (pp. 433-456). Porto Allegre, Brazil: ArtMed Publishers.

Group Differences in Aptitude
Gottfredson, L. S. (2006). Social consequences of group differences in cognitive ability (Consequencias sociais das diferencas de grupo em habilidade cognitiva). In C. E. Flores-Mendoza & R. Colom (Eds.), Introducau a psicologia das diferencas individuais (pp. 433-456). Porto Allegre, Brazil: ArtMed Publishers.

Different Breeding Populations Evolved Differently

When life or death depends on your ability to follow a certain way of life, you are necessarily being selected for certain heritable characteristics. Some of these are dietary—an ability to digest milk or certain foods. Others, however, are mental and behavioral, things like aptitudes, personality type, and behavioral predispositions. This is because a way of life involves thinking and behaving in specific ways. Keep in mind, too, that most mental and behavioral traits have moderate to high heritability.

… This gene-culture co-evolution began when humans had already spread over the whole world, from the equator to the arctic. So it followed trajectories that differed from one geographic population to another. Even when these populations had to adapt to similar ways of life, they may have done so differently, thus opening up (or closing off) different possibilities for further gene-culture co-evolution. Therefore, on theoretical grounds alone, human populations should differ in the genetic adaptations they have acquired. The differences should generally be small and statistical, being noticeable only when one compares large numbers of individuals. Nonetheless, even small differences, when added up over many individuals and many generations, can greatly influence the way a society grows and develops. __ Peter Frost Anthropology blog

Ranking different populations for their achievements, it is clear that sub Saharan Africans and Australian aborigenes shake out near the very bottom of the pile. Not so coincidentally, when measured for IQ, those populations likewise end at or near the bottom of all tested populations.

IQ Indigenous Peoples

IQ Indigenous Peoples

Low IQ breeding populations never invented the wheel, did not develop written language or histories, had no science or maths, left no significant technological artifacts, have no record of sophisticated art or music, and left descendants who have largely fallen into the government welfare and dependency trap with no likely avenue of escape.

Tracing the migrations and diasporae of these differently-endowed indigenous people, one can update the global IQ map to a coarse approximation for modern times.

Global IQ by National Average IQ Scores

Global IQ by National Average IQ Scores

When high IQ nations contain significant numbers of low-IQ immigrants, these immigrants tend to settle in specific parts of cities to form ghettoes, barrios, banlieus, and other dysfunctional neighborhoods that frequently turn into “no-go zones” for normal trade and discourse. These areas are often hot-beds of crime, violence, and insurrection. More fine-grained maps of population IQ, population crime, government dependency, corruption, poverty, and general dysfunction, would cause these regions to light up in fluorescent neon.

Modern Western Governments Subsidise Failure and Punish Success

Countries tend to get more of what they reward, and less of what they tax and punish. This helps to explain the perplexing growth of destructive underclasses in Europe and the Anglosphere — regions that otherwise would represent a great hope for the world’s future due to native traits of invention, innovation, and general orderliness and positive goal orientation.

Unfortunately — and thanks to prominent government policies — the bright populations of Europe and the Anglosphere are being replaced by what are largely duller and more violent populations from the third world.

In one generation, Europe will be unrecognizable.

Eastern Europe now has “the largest population loss in modern history”, while Germany overtook Japan by having the world’s lowest birth rate.

Europe, as it is aging, no longer renews its generations, and instead welcomes massive numbers of migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia, who are going to replace the native Europeans, and who are bringing cultures with radically different values about sex, science, political power, culture, economy and the relation between God and man.

__ https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8761/europe-population-substitution

Human Populations are Not Interchangeable

As a result of the ongoing replacement of high aptitude, high achievement populations of Europe and the Anglosphere, by low aptitude, low achievement, high violence populations of the third world, the average global IQ is on a downward track.

Change in Global IQ from 1950 to 2050

https://www.fourmilab.ch/documents/IQ/1950-2050/

By replacing high-IQ, inventive, orderly European populations with low-IQ, parasitic, violent third world populations, the governments of Europe and the Anglosphere are placing their citizens of European origin in an untenable position: Either they must submit to their slaughter and replacement, or they must go against their own innate nature and rebel against their governments — and fight against their replacement.

One might claim that it is only necessary for people of European origin to procreate more, in order to survive. But such a claim reveals a deep ignorance of underlying government incentives, which punish success and reward failure. Government taxation, regulation, and benefits are skewed against people of European origin and to the benefit of people of third world origin. As a result, birthing wards and early schools of Europe and the Anglosphere are filling with third world young while the young of more intelligent, inventive, and orderly people are disappearing at an ever more rapid rate.

What are the Solutions to this Government-Instigated and Accelerated Problem?

It is important to understand that what we are describing here is only the tip of the iceberg. Most instinctive reactions to this genocide-by-government-policy tend to be counterproductive and misdirected. Knee-jerk emotional reactions will only speed the genocide and increase the difficulty for your families and friends. Conspiracy theories — in general — just make you think and act stupidly.

If you are thinking along the lines of developing “islands of competence” complete with parallel infrastructure, trade, and information / people exchange, you are much closer to the mark. First it helps to understand how deeply the problem extends.

http://www.humanbiologicaldiversity.com/ — Extensive links to articles on human biodiversity

http://www.humanbiologicaldiversity.com/articles/Fuerst%2C%20John.%20%22The%20nature%20of%20race.%22%20Open%20Behavioral%20Genetics%2C%20June%2C%202015.pdf — Scientific monograph on human biodiversity

Genetics of violence links

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8761/europe-population-substitution

Reading information sources such as those above will help many people to understand why effective preparations are necessary — why provisions need to be made.

Once the need for effective action is established, working groups of people who combine visionary traits with practical competencies will need to build bases of operation, action plans for expansion, and careful networking protocols for cooperation with other similar groups.

The Dark Enlightenment and Neo-Reactionary thought provide philosophical reasons for breaking away from mainstream thinking, above and beyond the de facto genocide being carried out by the governments of the west against their most productive and inventive peoples.

Philosophy and reason for action are only bare beginnings, of course. Competency and willingness to act in building the necessary shadow infrastructures must follow-on quickly, once awareness of the problem begins to dawn.

More on the “Islands of Competence Model”:

The easiest introduction to “islands of competence” for most persons of modern extraction is the concept of the “city-state.” The parallel is not a perfect one, but it is a useful mental icebreaker for those who do not quite know where to start.

Various conceptual understandings of “city-state:”

A city-state is a sovereign state that consists of a city and its dependent territories.[1][2] Historically, this included famous cities like Rome, Athens, Carthage,[2] and the Italian city-states during the Renaissance—but today only a handful of sovereign city-states exist, with some disagreement as to which are city-states. However, a great deal of consensus exists that the term properly applies to Singapore, Monaco, and Vatican City. In particular, Singapore has been referred to by The Economist as the “world’s only fully-functioning city-state”.[3] __ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City-state

Besides Singapore, Monaco, and the Vatican, several other modern thriving entities could also qualify in some ways as “city-states.”

city-state, in ancient Greece, Italy, and Medieval Europe, an independent political unit consisting of a city and surrounding countryside. The first city-states were in Sumer, but they reached their peak in Greece. From the beginning of Greek history to its climax in the 5th and 4th cent. B.C., the Greeks were organized into city-states, of which there were several hundred. The first Italian city-states were Greek colonies. Later Etruscan and native city-states emerged, including Rome. After the fall of the Roman Empire, many Italian cities (e.g., Florence, Genoa, Venice) were city-states until the 19th cent., as were such N German cities as Bremen and Hamburg. The Greek word polis meant both city and city-state. Since the city-state was independent, different states—and the same state at different times—had a variety of governments, ranging from absolute monarchy to pure democracy. __ http://www.infoplease.com/encyclopedia/history/city-state.html

A full reading of the “infoplease” entry above displays the authors’ innate distaste for the city-state concept. Recognising and understanding the particular bias of an information source is one of the earliest lessons taught in the Dangerous Child method.

CITY-STATE. City-states were autonomous, self-governing states led by a city. They controlled land outside the walls, from a few square miles, for many of the imperial free cities of Germany, to the huge land-and-sea empire of the Republic of Venice. All city-states had collective governments, usually a narrow or broad oligarchy. With the exception of the largely rural Swiss city-states, their economies were based on trade and manufacturing. A vital part of European politics, economy, and culture in 1500, city-states declined in importance in the next three centuries.

City-states rose in the Middle Ages in areas of Europe lacking strong territorial monarchies. North Italian towns won their independence from the Holy Roman Empire in the late twelfth and early thirteenth centuries. Geographical remoteness and mountains protected the Swiss city-states from outside rule. In Germany many towns had achieved the status of imperial free city by the end of the Middle Ages. They governed themselves but were expected to follow the lead of the Holy Roman Empire in foreign policy and to provide financial support when necessary. __ http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/city-state.aspx

None of the excerpts above fully captures the concept of “islands of competence” used in the Al Fin nomenclature. But historical analogs can be very useful when one is first forming a new concept.

Another approach to new concept clarification is to look at a concept’s opposite. In this case, we would provide examples of “islands of incompetence.” Such dysfunctional centres of activity are easy to find in the modern world, wherever political entitites are administered by the corrupt, the dysgenic, the insane, the criminal, or peoples of low competence levels. Nations of sub Saharan Africa, the Caribbean, the Muslim world, and across much of Latin America provide numerous examples of islands of incompetence. Cities administered by leftists, criminal gangs, dysgenic peoples of nepotistic tendency, etc. likewise provide clear examples of “islands of incompetence.”

Most moderns have been so indoctrinated by nation-state concepts that they are unable to conceive of a workable model of networked, interacting, freely trading “islands of competence.” This is to be expected in today’s world of cradle to grave skankstream indoctrination. Such persons of limited imagination will necessarily be left behind, for the most part, when the vigorous shaking of the world begins.

Note: A few foundational concepts for “islands of competence” are introduced in The Dangerous Child blog, the other currently active Al Fin blog.

Posted in Cognition, Demographics, Dysgenics, Idiocracy, IQ | Tagged | 4 Comments

Robots Inherit the Farm

The focus of automation in farming has shifted from assisting humans to replacing them

More

The average age of Japanese farmers is 67. Across all developed countries, the average age of growers is 60. Robotics and automation technologies are just now reaching the stage where agricultural robots can replace human farmers for many or most crop growing tasks.

Kubota is also developing and marketing a suit-like device to help farmers harvest and carry fruit and vegetables. The ministry expects the robots, which can be put on like a backpack, to be able to help elderly and female farmers in field work that is difficult to be automated.

“Applying new technologies to farming will boost the appeal of agriculture to younger people and help increase their participation in the sector,” said Takaki Shigemoto, analyst at JSC Corp., researcher in Tokyo. __ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-23/robots-replacing-japan-s-farmers-seen-preserving-food-security

New all-robot farm in Japan

The global market for agricultural robots will explode to $73.9 billion by 2024, up from $3.0 billion 2015, according to Tractica, a market intelligence firm. It forecast driverless tractors would generate the most revenue — $30.7 billion by 2024 — with agricultural drones clocking up the most unit shipments.

Source

From Business Insider:

winebot

French inventor Christophe Millot created an autonomous bot, called the Wall-Ye, that helps to prune and harvest grapes at vineyards.

Using infrared sensors and scissor-hands, it can detect and snip weak vines as well as monitor the health of the soil and grapes.

Before it can start working, the system is programmed with a map of the vineyard so that it knows where to go.

The BoniRob destroys 120 weeds per minute.

The BoniRob destroys 120 weeds per minute.

Bosch/Deepfield Robotics

Bosch, a German company best known for manufacturing blenders and power drills, has invented a robot that can kill weeds faster than any human or herbicide.

The BoniRob roams through fields and finds weeds, stomping out two per second with a 1-centimeter-wide drill. That way, the weeds won’t overrun the crops.

Abundant Robotics’ bot picks one ripe apple per second.

apple bot

A startup called Abundant Robotics Inc. is developing robots that picks apples when they are ripe. It uses computer vision to find the apples and harvest them quickly and efficiently.

The bots were designed to to remove one fruit per second without damaging any part of the fruit or tree, TechCrunch notes. As seen above, a built-in tube sucks up the apples like a vacuum.

The Blue River Lettuce Bot thins out lettuce fields.

The Blue River Lettuce Bot thins out lettuce fields.

A Blue River bot operating in Salinas, California.Blue River Technology

The Lettuce Bot is like a “Roomba for Weeds,” notes Modern Farmer.

Developed by the California-based startup Blue River, the device attaches to a tractor. Using sensors, it can detect insects and weeds and spray pesticides only on those areas.

In the future, Blue River hopes to modify the Lettuce Bot to kill weeds without any chemicals — perhaps with a rotating blade.

In addition, it can thin out lettuce fields, killing a portion of the plants so the rest have room to grow. According to Blue River, it can treat about 5,000 plants in a minute.

____ Source for above text and images

Because of the coming shortage of farmers in developed countries, robots are being developed that are capable of assuming more and more farming and ranching roles.

From Gizmodo:

Strawberry Picker Source

Strawberry Picker
Source

This machine picks strawberries with alarming speed and efficiency. Sensors on the robotic arms can actually tell which berries are ripe and which aren’t based on the shape and size of the unpicked berry. It even packs them in boxes!

 

Autonomous Tractor Spirit

The all-electric Spirit hay mower by Autonomous Tractor mows hay like nobody’s business. It’s advertised as being 25 percent more energy efficient and looks highly robotic.


Conic System Pro-300

Although it looks like some sort of manufacturing device, the Pro-300 from Conic System is actually a highly specialized sowing robot for greenhouses. Need some seed sowed in some trays? This machine can sow 1,000 trays an hour.


Energid Citrus Picking System

This big but low cost orange-picking gadget can clear an orange tree for as little or less than what human labor would cost. That means picking an orange every two to three seconds which might sound slow. But remember: This robot never gets tired.


Clearpath Robotics Grizzly

The Grizzly doesn’t have a cab, because the all-terrain robot doesn’t need a driver. This electric vehicle does the work of a super smart tractor. With attached sensors, it can actually smell where cows peed and treat the grass automatically so that it regrows.


ASI Forge Platform

This slim robotic platform can accommodate over 100 attachments, everything from a drill to a fork lift. That makes the ASI Forge Robotic Platform useful across many industries but especially helpful in tight farming situations like orchards or vineyards.


Vision Robotics Grapevine Pruner

Pruning is an essential if tedious task when maintaining healthy grapevines, but this robot will do it for you. On the outside it looks like a big blue box; inside there are grapevine snipping arms that only look a little bit scary. __ More information and photos at Gizmodo

It should be clear that the demand for qualified robotics technicians, repairmen, programmers, and networkers, is due to skyrocket across the temperate zone breadbasket regions of the developed world.

Extreme automation in dairy farming

More:

A little known fact: farms are already amongst the most prominent adopters of robotic technology.

Lely, which is based in the Netherlands, has a fleet of over 20,000 milking robots installed throughout the world. The Lely Astronaut A4 box allows cows to be milked when they choose so, instead of when the farmer needs it to be done. The robot attaches incoming cows to the teat cups, reattaches them if required, and detaches them after milking. As an added bonus, data about the cows is collected, which can help the farmer monitor the herd and take action should a problem arrive, or simply to improve yield. __ Robohub

https://www.fac-fcc.ca/en/ag-knowledge/ag-economist/the-automation-of-agriculture-part-one.html
https://www.fac-fcc.ca/en/ag-knowledge/ag-economist/the-automation-of-agriculture-part-II-farming-with-robots.html

3D printing is another disruptive technology likely to play a larger role on farms and ranches.

Above the new automated robot farms, autonomous flying drones armed with hellfire missiles and autonomous machine gun emplacements will be used to monitor farms and protect fields and equipment from thieves, vandals, and Luddites. Robots will need to look out for each other.😉

Comment:

New agricultural technologies will be used by the full spectrum of farming interests — from the giant conglomerate to the small one person landholder who wishes to live off the land (survivalists, solitarians, etc.), or persons who cultivate a niche agricultural product for select customers (special mushrooms, custom wine grapes, etc.).

The application of automation to farming opens agriculture to large numbers of people who otherwise would be shut out due to lack of time and expertise. And as mentioned above, the new technology will allow ageing farmers to bring in the crops more easily and far longer than they would otherwise be capable of doing.

Large farms and conglomerates will employ their own robot repairmen, programmers, network administrators, 3D print parts makers, and operation overseers. Medium sized farms are likely to employ a small number of robot technicians to oversee operations, perform simple repairs, and call in contractors for more significant maintenane needs. Small farmers are likely to learn many of the skills required to operate and maintain their robots, calling in outside help only when farming operations are threatened or during off seasons.

Farm assistants will be hired for their intelligence, resourcefulness, and tech savvy. New generation small farmers will self-select for the same charateristics.

Posted in 3D Printing, Agriculture, Robots | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Falling Through the Earth’s Centre: How Long to Reach the Other Side?


The gravitational effects on a body falling through the centre of the Earth to the other side, is an interesting problem. The video above introduces an idea or two which may be new to you, even if you have thought about this problem already, as gravitational scientists at the Al Fin Institutes have done.

The complete trip from one side to the other is estimated to take about 42 minutes, assuming no additional methods of propulsion are utilised beyond simple gravitational forces.

With considerations for gravity, momentum, and a bunch of other forces involving calculus, [you should] have an idea of what would happen if you fell straight through the planet (you know, assuming the heat and stuff didn’t kill you)… __ Popsci

42 minutes is not a long time to fall about 8,000 miles. Your path would need to be evacuated first, perfectly straight, and you would need 42 minutes of reliable air supply and a well insulated capsule to reach the other side with a functioning brain. Still, such a trip would save considerable time when traveling from Spain to New Zealand, or from China to Argentina. And the excitement of a long freefall — and the potential for freefall sex — should prove an enticement, at least for the young at heart.

In order to maximise the number of such thrilling trips one would be able to take in one’s lifetime, consider looking into longevity medicine and rejuvenation treatments. A few promising areas of research:

http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/08/elysium-health-offers-combination.html

Mapping the Role of Foxn1 in Thymic Function

http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/08/new-discovery-in-genetic-research-could.html

SENS Rejuvenation Biotechnology Videos

The Potential for Exciting Disruptive Innovation is in the Hands of Those Who Can both See and Act

Our world is limited by our own minds and by the willful greed, corruption, and incompetence of a coalition of elitists that span the worlds of politics, finance, academics, media, environmentalism, large foundations, and more.

Drilling holes through that stifling shell of suffocating elitism presents every bit as much a challenge as drilling an evacuated hole through the centre of the Earth. But challenges abound, and it is up to humans who deserve the name to rise to the challenges.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Posted in Longevity, Science | Tagged | Leave a comment

9 Year Old Boy Upstages Obama, Clinton, Trump in Louisiana Floods

The Idea Came to Him in a Dream

These are not the sort of dreams that would come naturally to Obama or Hillary, of course.

Carson Boutte celebrated his 9th birthday in an unconventional way. Instead of a party and gifts, he chose to deliver pizzas to flood victims.

“We’re going to give them lunch so they don’t have to stop what they’re doing,” Carson said. “We’re just going to deliver pizzas to neighborhoods that have flooded.”

KATC reports Carson said he got the idea from a dream he had that he was delivering food and water to flood victims. That is when he told his parents. __ http://abc7chicago.com/society/boy-delivers-pizza-to-flood-victims-on-9th-birthday/1479807/

Hillary’s favourite charity is herself, of course. 96% of her reported charitable contributions in 2015 went to the Clinton Foundation. President Obama was too busy golfing in luxurious surroundings to be bothered with the little people’s problems. And while Donald Trump took the trouble to visit Louisiana several days before the idea occurred to Obama, I doubt that he took any pizza with him.

Instead of receiving birthday gifts and a party, Carson Boutte helped deliver 363 pizzas to victims of flood damage in his native Louisiana. The effort was assisted by readers of a Facebook article about what Carson was doing, who called Domino’s and ordered pizzas in Carson’s name.

Is Unselfishness Good or Bad?

This posting is not meant to praise Carson or to recommend that other children try to emulate his selfless gesture. It is only meant to draw a contrast between 9 year old boys who can still dream and act on their innocent dreams, and well-corrupted political figures who quite possibly never had an unselfish idea in their lives.

Unselfishness can be carried to extremes, as John Galt explained so well in a best selling novel of the past century. The pretence of unselfishness can form the basis of some of the greatest evils in the world today.

But making the personal choice to forego a few frivolous treats in order to boost the spirits of the community in which one lives, is quite a defensible decision.

Flooding in Denham Springs Louisiana Source

Flooding in Denham Springs Louisiana
Source

Posted in Childhood Development, Pram | Tagged | Leave a comment

More Predictions for a New “Little Ice Age”: Winter is Coming

Do Not Fear the Warming: Fear the Killing Cold

British scientist Valentina Zharkova and her team at Northumbria University in the United Kingdom… predicted that a coming periodic reduction in the sun’s radiation will soon lead to major global cooling.

Source

A number of courageous and independent-minded scientists are learning that cycles of solar activity working through variable cloud cover and cyclic ocean temperature oscillations, are far more important drivers of global climate activity than any trace gases in the planetary atmosphere.
More

We know from history that natural cycles and negative feedbacks predominate in climate. As the climate pendulum swings, we should be particularly concerned about any possibility of extended cooling over the temperate breadbaskets of Earth.

Zharkova found that solar activity is driven by two magnetic waves from within the sun that can either dampen or amplify solar activity. Solar activity is believed to play a role in warming and cooling average global temperature.

Zharkova’s team incorporated solar data into predictive models and found that the sun is heading into a period of low solar activity similar to the Maunder Minimum of the late 1600s. During this time, scientists believe low solar activity contributed to cooler average global temperature.

___ http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/09/scientist-predicts-little-ice-age-gets-icey-reception-from-colleagues/

During the cyclic periods of global warming, growing seasons are longer and civilisation prospers from the excess production of food and goods. For a time, the human carrying capacity of the planet increases, allowing for significantly larger human populations. But beware when climate cycles turn, and the long winter returns to Terra. Growing seasons shorten — and in some years disappear entirely. If history is any guide, famine, disease, poverty, hardship, and the wholesale death of human surplus populations follow.

Winterland: Crops Do Not Grow in the Ice Avercamp  via Wikipedia

Winterland: Crops Do Not Grow in the Ice
Avercamp via Wikipedia

Among those scientists who are actively exploring the solar-climate connection there are different views as to how the relationship between sun and earth is mediated. Names to look out for in research papers include Willie Soon, Sallie Balliunas, Eigil Friis-Christensen, Henrik Svensmark, Nir Shaviv and Jan Veizer. An excellent introduction to the topic is ‘The Manic Sun’ by Nigel Calder, who recently also wrote, with Henrik Svensmark, ‘The Chilling Stars’. Also worth looking at is Willie Soon’s short book on Edward Maunder. __ http://www.greatglobalwarmingswindle.com/thesun.html

In the politically influenced world of “climate change,” independent, sceptically minded scientists who refuse to join the herd and follow the big money flows of influence, are few and far between. But they are well worth reading for their refreshing honesty.

Cyclic Climate Change Cold is Far Deadlier than Warm Source

Cyclic Climate Change
Cold is Far Deadlier than Warm
Source

What happens during a “Little Ice Age?” Food-producing land becomes scarcer, food-growing seasons become shorter, and the world becomes a much more arid and less hospitable place. Think food shortages and the social unrest that follows. __ Source

It is easy to understand why so many ancient cultures worshipped the sun god. Natural cycles of solar activity determine how long farmers will have to grow and harvest the crop each year. During periods of extended cold, when the temperate breadbaskets experience years “without a summer,” starvation and accompanying poverty and plague become appallingly commonplace.

We are between periods of strong glaciation, and contrary to what self-interested “climate scientists” seem to be saying through media mouthpieces, much of the modern holocene period was significantly warmer than what we are experiencing currently.

Created by Cuffy and Clow in 1997, and based on Greenland ice core records, this chart shows global temperatures for the past 15,000 years. Source

Created by Cuffy and Clow in 1997, and based on Greenland ice core records, this chart shows global temperatures for the past 15,000 years.
Source

Why would “scientists” lie about something so important? Follow the money. Politically directed spending on research is dwarfed by ideology-driven government spending based upon the results of this “research.” But how much of the flood of politically funded research can be trusted or replicated? According to watchdog groups cited in the “follow the money” link above, perhaps 30% or less. Science is in big trouble.

Some trillions of hard-earned taxpayer dollars have been spent to combat global warming over the last three decades. __ Source

Follow the money indeed. $Trillions are being transferred and redistributed on the basis of apocalyptic climate predictions of warming. If only we could look forward to more warming and longer growing seasons in the temperate breadbaskets, rather than a long-lasting cold that brings starvation, disease, poverty, and war in its wake.

Next Grand Minimum blog

Posted in Climate, Science | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Are Black People World’s Largest Liability?

Not as Individuals, No; Mainly from Dysfunctional Black Cultures and Large Concentrations in Populations

Statistical Low Intelligence and Poor Impulse Control of Blacks Puts World Assets at Risk

The world’s largest asset class — the American housing market — is by itself worth $26 trillion. But everywhere black people go, they depress property values. If housing markets represent much of the world’s value, does the threat of black people represent much of the world’s liability?

America’s housing market… It is the world’s largest asset class, worth $26 trillion, more than America’s stockmarket. The slab of mortgage debt lurking beneath it is the planet’s biggest concentration of financial risk. __ Source

But what happened to property values in Newark, Detroit, Gary, Indiana, Birmingham, The Bronx, East St. Louis, inner Baltimore, large parts of Philadelphia, etc. etc. etc. when the black people moved in? Well before the rioting and violent crime, property values had already plummeted. Why? Because residents and potential buyers could see the crime, delinquency, and lack of upkeep coming a mile away. Sometimes, profiling accurately predicts the future.

And what is now happening to property values in no-go zones of Malmo, London, Paris, Hamburg, and other immigrant magnets?

The burning of western cities by low IQ residents and immigrants destroys not only property, but property values of surrounding neighborhoods, townships, and regions. This is a “chain-reaction” effect which occurs far more rapidly than anyone anticipated when this plague of violence, poverty, and low aptitude was first unleashed.

Low IQ, High Violence, High Poverty Black People Carry These With Them Wherever They Go

Low IQ, High Violence, High Poverty
Black People Carry These With Them Wherever They Go

Low Intelligence Means that Statistically, Most Blacks are Mind Children

Mind children are easily led — and easily misled. People of low intelligence have very limited life trajectories, and cannot attain the middle and higher reaches of human vocation and achievement. Even with total access to the world’s best education — boosted by racial preferences under the misleading term “affirmative action” — blacks as a group cannot match the achievement levels of other population groups. Because blacks cannot match other groups, they find it easy to believe that they are being “cheated” somehow, and not allowed to reap their “rightful” rewards. They are right, in a way. They have been cheated by nature, and as a result nothing can give them what they think they deserve.

Different populations have different IQ distributions. The populations with lowest statistical average IQs include Australian aborigines, sub Saharan Africans, most tribal peoples of Asia and the Americas, and inbred peoples such as Arabs.

What can people of different IQ levels achieve?

People of lowest intelligence cannot be left alone to fend for themselves, and must be watched and managed carefully. Allowing low IQ people to mix and mingle with the general population and make their own important decisions — including voting in general elections — is a recipe for escalating disaster. We see these things in North American inner cities, in the cities of SwedenGermanyFranceBelgium etc., and in the native source countries for these low intelligence peoples.

Every nation of the most advanced nations of the world — the nations of Europe and the Anglosphere — are threatened by a proliferation of low IQ, violence-prone peoples.

Throw in Poor Impulse Control and “Violent Genes” and the Plot Thickens

As we learn more about “the genetics of violence” we can gain insight into why some populations and family groups generate so much more crime and violence than western populations at large. The vastly disproportionate rates of violent crime committed by blacks in the US, for example, become more comprehensible when the genetic component is factored into the equation.

The George Soros – sponsored group — Black Lives Matter — that has spawned so much deadly violence and property crime by US blacks lately, is just one of the well organised and outside financed groups that are leading blacks to their more violently entitled tendencies. It is a form of “operant conditioning” and it is working very effectively among this statistically low IQ group. Like children, low IQ people are easily led — and misled.

The 2016 revised edition of the eye-opening report The Color of Crime, reveals that blacks commit crimes against other population groups far out of proportion to their numbers. When the numbers from the US Department of Justice are carefully scrutinised, it becomes clear that blacks are primarily the predators, while other races are being preyed upon by blacks.

Black People and Other Violence-Prone, Statistically Low-IQ Peoples Threaten Global Assets

Compare the fertility rates of the two time periods above across different geographical principalities and regions. Where are the world’s new people coming from? What does that tell you about future property values for the lucky places that will play host to these new people and their genetic descendants?

Who Will Maintain Tomorrow’s Infrastructures?

High tech societies depend upon their critical infrastructures for quality life, and their very survival. Here is a quick list of such infrastructures:

There is a good reason why countries of Africa, most of Asia, and the rest of the third world have such decrepit infrastructure. The underlying population IQ distribution does not contain enough persons sufficiently intelligent and conscientious to be engineers, physicians, technology specialists, managers, bankers, attorneys, forensics specialists, highly skilled craftsmen and maintenance men, and all of the other human infrastructure that supports high technology infrastructures of the more advanced world.

When seen in this light, the much ballyhooed “US infrastructure crisis” is more of an ideological talking point than an actual crisis. But only for now. As the plague of low-IQ, violence prone, poor impulse control peoples spreads more deeply into government policy-making and budget decisions, more critical infrastructure is likely to be neglected — as is commonplace in corrupt places such as Venezuela, Russia, Central Asia, Africa, Brasil, and India.

Why is Russia in the above list, when its population average IQ is close to 95 — well above all the others? Corruption and criminality in high places. Of course, ethnic Russia’s demography itself is on life support, with half the current population of ethnic Russians expected to evaporate over the next several decades without replacement (except perhaps by low IQ central asian muslims).

So It is Not Just Blacks Who Threaten Global Assets

No, alongside people of African descent, the people of tribal muslim nations and other low-IQ populations threaten to drown the world’s future prospects under a swamp of poverty, incompetence, corruption, and violence. So what is to be done?

An abrupt cessation of indiscriminate immigration from the third world to more advanced nations needs to be instituted immediately. Failing that, all government benefits to persons illegally in modern nations should be cut off, and efforts to deport such persons should be stepped up drastically. Any politicians and government employees who oppose such measures should be sacked, with possible legal and financial punishments considered.

As for the billionaires who sponsor the third worldification of the modern world, a long list of options presents itself — although most of them are worse than the status quo. But of those remaining, much consideration and weighing of options is called for.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Special Note:

The problem the future faces is not black people or low-intelligence and violence-prone people exclusively. The problem is the combination of bad government policy plus dysgenic demography. The people of western nations are being crushed by social and economic policies of governments that seem designed to expand dysfunctional underclasses at the expense of productive and innovative founder populations.

Not all blacks or other quasi-tribal people share the same degree of dysfunction. Like all human populations, blacks in different countries and regions occupy bell-shaped distributions when it comes to intelligence, impulse control, executive function, tendency to violence, and other characteristics. More functional blacks often suffer the most from the less functional blacks.

Black people at the higher end of the bell curve often express many of the same ideas and sentiments discussed above. See the comments of Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke, for example, on the decay of the black underclass under negligent leftist government policies.

More:

Why Milwaukee Burns

Another look at the population average IQ of sub Saharan Africa

Hypocrisy of US President on race

Posted in Africa, Blacks and crime, Coming Anarchy, Demographics, Dysgenics | Tagged , | 10 Comments

Forget the Bread: Circuses and Wars are What Putin Offers

“Two things only the people anxiously desire — bread and circuses.” The government kept the Roman populace happy by distributing free food and staging huge spectacles. __ Dictionary.com

Putin has taken a similar approach to placating the Russian people, with the exception that Putin substitutes “war” in place of “bread.”

To Fund 2018 World Cup, Putin Robs Russia’s Schools and Hospitals

Like the ruinously expensive Sochi Olympics before it, the 2018 World Cup is shaping up to be another circus of destruction for Russia.

Russian regional governments are being asked to come up with ever more money from their own budgets to pay for the construction or reconstruction of stadiums that will allow Moscow to host the 2018 World Cup. To do so, they are being forced to divert money from the construction of schools and hospitals. __ WindowonEurasia2

Stripping budgets meant for schools and hospitals to pay for grandly extravagant gestures and wars is something we are coming to expect from the Putin regime. Other vital infrastructures that are being stripped to fund Putin’s grand Potemkin farce include transportation, badly needed rebuild of pipelines, housing, and the cleanup of fouled water, soil, and air.

In St. Petersburg:

… officials will cut 505 million rubles of funding for the construction of six schools, 313 million rubles allocated to build seven nursery schools, and approximately 1 billion rubles set aside for building seven hospitals and clinics, the document said.
__ https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/school-and-hospital-funding-reallocated-to-russian-stadium-construction-55073

Across other areas of Russia, the stripping away of support from important infrastructure in order to pay for extravagant empty gestures, is even worse proportionately.

As far as entertaining the Russian population with wars, what does it gain?

… the Russian attack on Ukraine did not cause Ukraine to fall apart (as the official Russian line went) but actually unified Ukraine and made it stronger.

In the meantime Russia became weaker. By mid-2015 Russian leaders were openly admitting this. The Russian prime minister (Dmitry Medvedev) recently gave a public speech before the Russian parliament, details of which were distributed nationwide by the state controlled media. Medvedev admitted that the military operations in Ukraine had cost Russia over $100 billion so far and would probably cost more before it is all over. He also mentioned that the sanctions made it impossible to borrow abroad. Russians also know that over $150 billion in cash held by Russian businesses has left the country because the owners felt this money would be safer abroad. __ Risks of Russian Wars

Putin got away with his invasion of Georgia and his occult conquest of Crimea. Blowback from his misadventures in eastern Ukraine are becoming legend:

Weapons flooding back into Russia from Donbass, fueling violent crime in Russia. This blowback into Russia from Donbass has been going on for years now, and is only likely to get worse. Russia’s fractured allies in Donbass fight among themselves and even against Russians in east Ukraine.

It is taking the Russian people longer than one might expect to catch on to the grandiose Putin neo-imperial shenanigans, but as premature death follows premature death, the dwindling survivors of Putin’s war on the people are learning regret and an expanding despair from these destructive wars and circuses.

More rarely heard stories from the heart of Putin’s darkness (from WOE2):

Russian Standard of Living Now Back to 1989 Levels. After rising in the first decade of this century to 15 percent more than at the end of Soviet times, the real standard of living Russians now have has fallen back 15 percent over the last three years and now stands just where it did in 1989, according to Russian economists (ttolk.ru/2016/08/18/уровень-жизни-россиян-вернулся-к-1989-год/). Other bad economic news this week included reports that Russia is permanently losing millions of jobs (ng.ru/economics/2016-08-16/1_job.html), that the decline in industrial production has resumed and even accelerated (slon.ru/posts/72059), that the elections may accelerate the country’s economic collapse (rufabula.com/author/alina-vituhnovskaya/1306), and that ever fewer Russians are applying for passports to travel abroad (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=57B5634A718F6). Of course, this last may have another explanation: Russians may not want to attract attention to their desire to leave Russia today.

German Journalist Says Potholes in Russian Roads Reduce Highway Deaths There. A [German] journalist has praised one of the things that most Russians condemn: the horrific state of Russian roads. He says that the potholes that mar most of the highways there are good things because they force drivers to go more slowly and thus reduce the number of traffic deaths (vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2787497&cid=520). Meanwhile, Moscow has announced plans to increase the length of toll roads in Russia from 500 kilometers now to 2,000 by 2020. No word on whether these will be pothole free and thus more dangerous, however (1prime.ru/mainnews/20160813/826370075.html).

Infant Mortality Up in Crimea Since Russian Anschluss. Infant mortality is one of the most sensitive measures of how a society deals with its most defenseless. Since Russia occupied Crimea, deaths among newborns have shot up (rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/08/14/1540762.html).

Russian population set to decline by 50% over next several decades

The hope of the 25 year old Russian revolution and how Putin has tried to destroy all hope

A Soviet Past, a Soviet Future

Across southern Russia young girls being mutilated with Putin’s tacit blessing

Posted in Russia, Russian Decline | Tagged | Leave a comment

Hillary Pooped, Takes 4 Days Off at the Height of Campaign Season

[Hillary] apparently is prone to exhaustion, which may be why she has no events planned.

Discussing the Democratic National Convention, Clinton recently said during a campaign podcast, “By the end of those two weeks that’s exactly how I felt, it was, ‘Oh my gosh, I don’t know that I can get up, let alone what I will do if I am vertical.’”

… The Gateway Pundit noted Clinton took 7 of the first 14 days off in August.
__

http://www.theamericanmirror.com/rest-time-no-public-events-hillary-sunday/

She has trouble standing on her own, and is constantly propped up by handlers and media.

Hillary Pooped Source

Hillary Pooped
Source


Looking as “un-presidential” as possible, Hillary poops out onstage after only one public appearance for the day, in front of a poorly-filled high school gymnasium.

Amid rumours that Hillary is suffering from Traumatic Brain Disorder, Parkinson’s Disease, Complex Partial Seizures, Sub-cortical Dementia, and several other neurological disorders — including some related to chronic alcoholism — more medical observers are calling for Clinton to release her full medical records.

Trump has more than ten times the number of people at his campaign events than Hillary has at hers since August 1st. More than 100,000 people have shown up for Trump events since the beginning of August (with many more turned away due to the events reaching capacity). Hillary on the other hand hasn’t even had one tenth of that or not even 10,000 show up at her events since August 1st.

__ http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08/hillarys-taking-weekends-off/

Neurosurgeon Ben Carson calls for Clinton to release her records to the public

Neuro-Otologist Gerard Gianoli calls for release of Clinton medical records

“America’s most trusted physician” calls for release of Clinton medical records

Dr. Jane Orient, executive director of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, is concerned that Clinton’s brain injury may be the cause of organic brain syndrome or decreased mental function.

“Obviously, it would be very dangerous for a person subject to symptoms like this to be dealing with foreign leaders or making critical decisions,” Dr. Orient states. __ http://sandrarose.com/2016/08/more-doctors-call-for-hillary-clinton-to-release-her-medical-records/

Million dollar bounty placed on Clinton’s medical records [Dead or Alive😉 ]

While Milwaukee Burns and Trump Fills Up Large Stadiums with Crowds

Hillary is barely filling small venues, having seizure-like episodes, taking several days to rest in the middle of a campaign, struggling up and down stairs, and with the help of a smokescreen media is maintaining a lead in most national and state level polls.

Trump is filling huge stadiums with enthusiastic followers and despite handfuls of utterly idiotic public statements is still in the race, with a chance to win.

Hillary’s True Records May Never See the Light of Day

Records can be altered, although it is a criminal matter for physicians to alter the records of their patients. Nevertheless, when it comes to the Clintons it is well known that crimes and criminal penalties only apply to little people — people for whom the Clintons no longer have any use.

That being said, Hillary’s records are almost certainly being thoroughly sanitised just in case it is necessary to release them. If the crime of illegal alteration later comes to light, someone else will pay for the crime. All that matters is somehow reaching the pinnacle of power, at any cost.

More:

Rumours of Parkinson’s Disease and flash-induced seizure

Questions about Clinton’s Coumadin use

The news media is overwhelmingly in Hillary Clinton’s corner. I am surprised that Trump has been able to stay within reach so long after his nomination. Trump’s staying power — despite his habit of using his foot to pick his own teeth — suggests that the media does not have as much power as it once had. Unless the easily-exhausted Hillary pulls much farther ahead, the media-elitist axis may resort to desperate acts.

Special note: The animated gif below is being moved to the bottom of the posting for illustrative purposes.


The gif is edited to exaggerate Hillary’s seizure activity while being questioned by reporters. The actual video footage is suggestive enough of neurological disorder without having to distort the video in an attempt to make the problem appear worse. H/T to commenter yoananda for pointing out the “forward-reverse” style of looping introduced.

Compare the animated gif above with the actual video footage from different camera angles:

The animated gif is flashy and entertaining, but it is misleading, is not what actually happened, and is unnecessary to make the point.

Posted in Hillary Clinton, Politics | Tagged , | 10 Comments

China’s Economic Conundrum

Better Measurements of China’s Economic Growth Picture

China is desperate for global clout of the economic, political, and military varieties. China’s future prospects rest upon China’s economic growth, but reliable figures for China’s true growth are difficult to come by, even for China’s leaders.

The Conference Board Measurements Cut Through Some of the Smokescreen

We know that the Chinese Communist Party has been overstating China’s economic growth and productivity for several years now — at least since the 2008 global deleveraging. Better estimates by reputable outside groups place China’s GDP growth close to 4.5%, rather than the nearly 7% figure provided by Chinese government officials. China’s boom times are over.

A broader look at Chinese economic growth comes from a respected international group of over 1200 member companies established in 1912, known as the Conference Board. In the Forbes article by Paul Gregory excerpted below, two useful figures based on Conference Board estimates look at GDP trends as well as trends in TPF, Total Productivity Factor.

The media have largely ignored the alternative estimates of Chinese growth of the Conference Board. These calculations (discussed below) claim that China’s growth has been overstated by some thirty percent over the reform era, that it has averaged around five percent for the past five years[Most] Alarming is the collapse of total factor productivity (TFP) since 2010, a pattern reminiscent of the USSR during its protracted period of stagnation preceding its collapse.

… the private Conference Board is a prominent source of data on the world economy, human capital, and technological progress. Among economists, the Conference Board is known for its productivity calculations and for continuing the path-breaking work of the late Angus Maddison’s Groningen Growth Center. International organizations report official country statistics, but the independent Conference Board prepares alternate estimates of suspect national statistics and even includes Taiwan (the world’s 21st largest economy) in its data set. Its stated goal is to provide “objective, world-renowned economic data and analyses that help business and policy leaders make sense of their operating environments.”

The Conference Board has reconstructed China’s GDP using methods reminiscent of recalculations of Soviet growth during the Cold War era. Among other adjustments, the Conference Board builds Chinese industrial production from the bottom-up from physical output series, lowers the official (and unprecedentedly-high) service productivity growth, and raises some of the inflation figures used for deflation of nominal GDP. The Conference Board sets out the details of its recalculations in a hundred page working paper. Thus, we know more about the Conference Board’s data series than about China’s official figures (China Statistical Yearbook).

As someone who earlier worked on the Soviet figures, the Conference Board recalculations seem reasonable, and should be considered as a welcome alternate perspective on China’s economic growth during its reform era.

The accompanying figure compares the Official-Chinese and revised Conference Board growth figures (five year averages from 1980-85 to 2010-15) with Taiwan and South Korea during their period of rapid growth from 1960-65 to 1990-1995. I use five-year averages to remove the effects of business cycles.

cb1

What do these GDP figures tell us? First … Over the past five years, China’s growth has averaged below 5 percent according to the Conference Board versus the official figure of 7.5 percent. Only the most recent figures have attracted attention in the ongoing China soft landing debate. The value of the Conference Board series is, however, in its long-term nature. The business press, meanwhile, is interested in the last quarter.

Second …China’s thirty-year growth spurt replicates the Southeast Asian experience of earlier years. Let’s not forget Japan – the original East Asian miracle — which grew at an average rate of ten percent between 1950 and 1970. Exceptionally high growth rates appear to be a trademark of Southeast Asian countries that abandon state planning, have high domestic savings, and open up to the world economy.

The Conference Board’s … unique total factor productivity (TFP) series measure the extent to which economies grow “intensively” through technological advances rather than “extensively” by expanding human and physical capital. A concept largely familiar to professional economists, TFP is the “residual” growth not explained by the growth of labor and capital inputs. If, for example, GDP grows 3 percent and capital and labor grow by a combined 2 percent, TFP grows 1 percent and accounts for one-third of GDP growth. As the example shows, TFP is calculated from two figures: GDP growth and combined labor and capital growth, both of which are reported in the Conference Board 2014 data base updated to 2015.
__ Paul Gregory in Forbes

China’s Total Factor Productivity Trend shows Ominous Similarities to the Late USSR

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is a better measure of a country’s long-term economic dynamism than is the more amorphous measure known as GDP. Like many economic indexes, the GDP often obscures more than it reveals. The TFP provides a more incisive and dynamic view of a nation’s economy — especially when measured over time.

The accompanying chart shows China’s TFP growth throughout the reform era. The official GDP figures yield productivity growth five times higher than the Conference Board series over the entire period. Both series show falling TFP after 2001. By 2012-2015, both sets yield either near zero or negative TFP growth. So in the better 2012-2015 case, GDP and capital and labor inputs expanded at about the same rate with no productivity advances. In the worst case, capital and labor inputs expanded faster than output for negative productivity growth! The Conference Board data base suggests that cases of negative TFP growth are rare except in times of world recessions such as 1998 and 2008.

cb22

 

In the USSR case, declining rates of growth of GDP and TFP became irreversible after 1970. The ill-fated Gorbachev economic reforms made matters only worse. In the China case, the decline in TFP became pronounced in the early two thousands. With demographic factors allowing for little or no labor force growth, China’s GDP growth has been driven by unprecedented rates of investment. The declining TFP rates are therefore due to falling returns on capital, which Conference Board specialists blame on China’s “socialist-market economy,” which distorts economic incentives, deprives private enterprises of capital, and allocates state investment in favor of state enterprises. Whereas in the 1980s, China’s rates of return on capital were about average for BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), current returns have fallen to about half. Interest rates on bank loans to large state owned enterprises remain around 6 percent, while private businesses pay 25 percent. Preferential terms for real estate developments have left Chinese cities with empty high rises with no buyers and opera houses with no opera.

China’s economic fate is in the hands of its leaders. Unlike Gorbachev thirty-five years earlier strapped with a planned economy and no blueprint for transition, China’s economy operates in the world economy, has access to technology, and receives foreign direct investment. Reform of capital markets, the banking sector, and municipal government administration would go a long way in reversing the collapse of output and TFP growth as would secure property rights.

Such reforms, however, seem unlikely. Premier Xi has declared the state sector the “backbone” of the economy. Party cadres have been instructed to take the teachings of Karl Marx seriously. Private businesses do not hold out hope for equal and fair treatment under Xi’s socialism with a Chinese face. Successful business owners will continue to plan their emigration to Canada or Australia before the long arm of the state and party catches up with them. China’s puzzle has been it rapid growth despite its miserable (144th) economic freedom index ranking. Perhaps China’s performance is starting to reflect the low quality of its institutions.

__ Paul Gregory in Forbes

Under Xi, the future prospects for China appear shaky, similar to the prospects of Russia under Putin. Neither country is willing to provide reliable statistics to global analysts. Both nations are arming themselves for regional wars on multiple fronts, as well as for military action in outer space, nuclear attacks over longer distances, and increasingly threatening cyber attacks – thefts – espionage – blackmail – and sabotage.

Rather than picking sides and rooting for a team — as in football — smarter people would set their own houses in order, and make provisions for a long cold winter.

More:

Private Chinese companies back away from investing in China

China’s shiny new military equipment is second-rate and likely to fail in wartime

despite the PLA’s growing budget, its equipment is marred by industrial deficiency and corruption, especially in high-tech fields such as avionics, where’s China’s best Soviet-designed jet fighters must struggle with locally produced, failure-prone engines or make do with aging Russian-supplied engines.

In 2013, a PLA commander lost over half of the vehicles in his tank battalion to mechanical failure as they attempted a 9-day march during a training exercise in Inner Mongolia.

As in Russia, corruption in China’s military is out of control. This leaves these militaries in the lurch when it comes to real world preparedness.

Never forget

Posted in China | Tagged | 2 Comments