Robots Inherit the Farm

The focus of automation in farming has shifted from assisting humans to replacing them


The average age of Japanese farmers is 67. Across all developed countries, the average age of growers is 60. Robotics and automation technologies are just now reaching the stage where agricultural robots can replace human farmers for many or most crop growing tasks.

Kubota is also developing and marketing a suit-like device to help farmers harvest and carry fruit and vegetables. The ministry expects the robots, which can be put on like a backpack, to be able to help elderly and female farmers in field work that is difficult to be automated.

“Applying new technologies to farming will boost the appeal of agriculture to younger people and help increase their participation in the sector,” said Takaki Shigemoto, analyst at JSC Corp., researcher in Tokyo. __

New all-robot farm in Japan

The global market for agricultural robots will explode to $73.9 billion by 2024, up from $3.0 billion 2015, according to Tractica, a market intelligence firm. It forecast driverless tractors would generate the most revenue — $30.7 billion by 2024 — with agricultural drones clocking up the most unit shipments.


From Business Insider:


French inventor Christophe Millot created an autonomous bot, called the Wall-Ye, that helps to prune and harvest grapes at vineyards.

Using infrared sensors and scissor-hands, it can detect and snip weak vines as well as monitor the health of the soil and grapes.

Before it can start working, the system is programmed with a map of the vineyard so that it knows where to go.

The BoniRob destroys 120 weeds per minute.

The BoniRob destroys 120 weeds per minute.

Bosch/Deepfield Robotics

Bosch, a German company best known for manufacturing blenders and power drills, has invented a robot that can kill weeds faster than any human or herbicide.

The BoniRob roams through fields and finds weeds, stomping out two per second with a 1-centimeter-wide drill. That way, the weeds won’t overrun the crops.

Abundant Robotics’ bot picks one ripe apple per second.

apple bot

A startup called Abundant Robotics Inc. is developing robots that picks apples when they are ripe. It uses computer vision to find the apples and harvest them quickly and efficiently.

The bots were designed to to remove one fruit per second without damaging any part of the fruit or tree, TechCrunch notes. As seen above, a built-in tube sucks up the apples like a vacuum.

The Blue River Lettuce Bot thins out lettuce fields.

The Blue River Lettuce Bot thins out lettuce fields.

A Blue River bot operating in Salinas, California.Blue River Technology

The Lettuce Bot is like a “Roomba for Weeds,” notes Modern Farmer.

Developed by the California-based startup Blue River, the device attaches to a tractor. Using sensors, it can detect insects and weeds and spray pesticides only on those areas.

In the future, Blue River hopes to modify the Lettuce Bot to kill weeds without any chemicals — perhaps with a rotating blade.

In addition, it can thin out lettuce fields, killing a portion of the plants so the rest have room to grow. According to Blue River, it can treat about 5,000 plants in a minute.

____ Source for above text and images

Because of the coming shortage of farmers in developed countries, robots are being developed that are capable of assuming more and more farming and ranching roles.

From Gizmodo:

Strawberry Picker Source

Strawberry Picker

This machine picks strawberries with alarming speed and efficiency. Sensors on the robotic arms can actually tell which berries are ripe and which aren’t based on the shape and size of the unpicked berry. It even packs them in boxes!


Autonomous Tractor Spirit

The all-electric Spirit hay mower by Autonomous Tractor mows hay like nobody’s business. It’s advertised as being 25 percent more energy efficient and looks highly robotic.

Conic System Pro-300

Although it looks like some sort of manufacturing device, the Pro-300 from Conic System is actually a highly specialized sowing robot for greenhouses. Need some seed sowed in some trays? This machine can sow 1,000 trays an hour.

Energid Citrus Picking System

This big but low cost orange-picking gadget can clear an orange tree for as little or less than what human labor would cost. That means picking an orange every two to three seconds which might sound slow. But remember: This robot never gets tired.

Clearpath Robotics Grizzly

The Grizzly doesn’t have a cab, because the all-terrain robot doesn’t need a driver. This electric vehicle does the work of a super smart tractor. With attached sensors, it can actually smell where cows peed and treat the grass automatically so that it regrows.

ASI Forge Platform

This slim robotic platform can accommodate over 100 attachments, everything from a drill to a fork lift. That makes the ASI Forge Robotic Platform useful across many industries but especially helpful in tight farming situations like orchards or vineyards.

Vision Robotics Grapevine Pruner

Pruning is an essential if tedious task when maintaining healthy grapevines, but this robot will do it for you. On the outside it looks like a big blue box; inside there are grapevine snipping arms that only look a little bit scary. __ More information and photos at Gizmodo

It should be clear that the demand for qualified robotics technicians, repairmen, programmers, and networkers, is due to skyrocket across the temperate zone breadbasket regions of the developed world.

Extreme automation in dairy farming


A little known fact: farms are already amongst the most prominent adopters of robotic technology.

Lely, which is based in the Netherlands, has a fleet of over 20,000 milking robots installed throughout the world. The Lely Astronaut A4 box allows cows to be milked when they choose so, instead of when the farmer needs it to be done. The robot attaches incoming cows to the teat cups, reattaches them if required, and detaches them after milking. As an added bonus, data about the cows is collected, which can help the farmer monitor the herd and take action should a problem arrive, or simply to improve yield. __ Robohub

3D printing is another disruptive technology likely to play a larger role on farms and ranches.

Above the new automated robot farms, autonomous flying drones armed with hellfire missiles and autonomous machine gun emplacements will be used to monitor farms and protect fields and equipment from thieves, vandals, and Luddites. Robots will need to look out for each other.😉


New agricultural technologies will be used by the full spectrum of farming interests — from the giant conglomerate to the small one person landholder who wishes to live off the land (survivalists, solitarians, etc.), or persons who cultivate a niche agricultural product for select customers (special mushrooms, custom wine grapes, etc.).

The application of automation to farming opens agriculture to large numbers of people who otherwise would be shut out due to lack of time and expertise. And as mentioned above, the new technology will allow ageing farmers to bring in the crops more easily and far longer than they would otherwise be capable of doing.

Large farms and conglomerates will employ their own robot repairmen, programmers, network administrators, 3D print parts makers, and operation overseers. Medium sized farms are likely to employ a small number of robot technicians to oversee operations, perform simple repairs, and call in contractors for more significant maintenane needs. Small farmers are likely to learn many of the skills required to operate and maintain their robots, calling in outside help only when farming operations are threatened or during off seasons.

Farm assistants will be hired for their intelligence, resourcefulness, and tech savvy. New generation small farmers will self-select for the same charateristics.

Posted in 3D Printing, Agriculture, Robots | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Falling Through the Earth’s Centre: How Long to Reach the Other Side?

The gravitational effects on a body falling through the centre of the Earth to the other side, is an interesting problem. The video above introduces an idea or two which may be new to you, even if you have thought about this problem already, as gravitational scientists at the Al Fin Institutes have done.

The complete trip from one side to the other is estimated to take about 42 minutes, assuming no additional methods of propulsion are utilised beyond simple gravitational forces.

With considerations for gravity, momentum, and a bunch of other forces involving calculus, [you should] have an idea of what would happen if you fell straight through the planet (you know, assuming the heat and stuff didn’t kill you)… __ Popsci

42 minutes is not a long time to fall about 8,000 miles. Your path would need to be evacuated first, perfectly straight, and you would need 42 minutes of reliable air supply and a well insulated capsule to reach the other side with a functioning brain. Still, such a trip would save considerable time when traveling from Spain to New Zealand, or from China to Argentina. And the excitement of a long freefall — and the potential for freefall sex — should prove an enticement, at least for the young at heart.

In order to maximise the number of such thrilling trips one would be able to take in one’s lifetime, consider looking into longevity medicine and rejuvenation treatments. A few promising areas of research:

Mapping the Role of Foxn1 in Thymic Function

SENS Rejuvenation Biotechnology Videos

The Potential for Exciting Disruptive Innovation is in the Hands of Those Who Can both See and Act

Our world is limited by our own minds and by the willful greed, corruption, and incompetence of a coalition of elitists that span the worlds of politics, finance, academics, media, environmentalism, large foundations, and more.

Drilling holes through that stifling shell of suffocating elitism presents every bit as much a challenge as drilling an evacuated hole through the centre of the Earth. But challenges abound, and it is up to humans who deserve the name to rise to the challenges.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Posted in Longevity, Science | Tagged | Leave a comment

9 Year Old Boy Upstages Obama, Clinton, Trump in Louisiana Floods

The Idea Came to Him in a Dream

These are not the sort of dreams that would come naturally to Obama or Hillary, of course.

Carson Boutte celebrated his 9th birthday in an unconventional way. Instead of a party and gifts, he chose to deliver pizzas to flood victims.

“We’re going to give them lunch so they don’t have to stop what they’re doing,” Carson said. “We’re just going to deliver pizzas to neighborhoods that have flooded.”

KATC reports Carson said he got the idea from a dream he had that he was delivering food and water to flood victims. That is when he told his parents. __

Hillary’s favourite charity is herself, of course. 96% of her reported charitable contributions in 2015 went to the Clinton Foundation. President Obama was too busy golfing in luxurious surroundings to be bothered with the little people’s problems. And while Donald Trump took the trouble to visit Louisiana several days before the idea occurred to Obama, I doubt that he took any pizza with him.

Instead of receiving birthday gifts and a party, Carson Boutte helped deliver 363 pizzas to victims of flood damage in his native Louisiana. The effort was assisted by readers of a Facebook article about what Carson was doing, who called Domino’s and ordered pizzas in Carson’s name.

Is Unselfishness Good or Bad?

This posting is not meant to praise Carson or to recommend that other children try to emulate his selfless gesture. It is only meant to draw a contrast between 9 year old boys who can still dream and act on their innocent dreams, and well-corrupted political figures who quite possibly never had an unselfish idea in their lives.

Unselfishness can be carried to extremes, as John Galt explained so well in a best selling novel of the past century. The pretence of unselfishness can form the basis of some of the greatest evils in the world today.

But making the personal choice to forego a few frivolous treats in order to boost the spirits of the community in which one lives, is quite a defensible decision.

Flooding in Denham Springs Louisiana Source

Flooding in Denham Springs Louisiana

Posted in Childhood Development, Pram | Tagged | Leave a comment

More Predictions for a New “Little Ice Age”: Winter is Coming

Do Not Fear the Warming: Fear the Killing Cold

British scientist Valentina Zharkova and her team at Northumbria University in the United Kingdom… predicted that a coming periodic reduction in the sun’s radiation will soon lead to major global cooling.


A number of courageous and independent-minded scientists are learning that cycles of solar activity working through variable cloud cover and cyclic ocean temperature oscillations, are far more important drivers of global climate activity than any trace gases in the planetary atmosphere.

We know from history that natural cycles and negative feedbacks predominate in climate. As the climate pendulum swings, we should be particularly concerned about any possibility of extended cooling over the temperate breadbaskets of Earth.

Zharkova found that solar activity is driven by two magnetic waves from within the sun that can either dampen or amplify solar activity. Solar activity is believed to play a role in warming and cooling average global temperature.

Zharkova’s team incorporated solar data into predictive models and found that the sun is heading into a period of low solar activity similar to the Maunder Minimum of the late 1600s. During this time, scientists believe low solar activity contributed to cooler average global temperature.


During the cyclic periods of global warming, growing seasons are longer and civilisation prospers from the excess production of food and goods. For a time, the human carrying capacity of the planet increases, allowing for significantly larger human populations. But beware when climate cycles turn, and the long winter returns to Terra. Growing seasons shorten — and in some years disappear entirely. If history is any guide, famine, disease, poverty, hardship, and the wholesale death of human surplus populations follow.

Winterland: Crops Do Not Grow in the Ice Avercamp  via Wikipedia

Winterland: Crops Do Not Grow in the Ice
Avercamp via Wikipedia

Among those scientists who are actively exploring the solar-climate connection there are different views as to how the relationship between sun and earth is mediated. Names to look out for in research papers include Willie Soon, Sallie Balliunas, Eigil Friis-Christensen, Henrik Svensmark, Nir Shaviv and Jan Veizer. An excellent introduction to the topic is ‘The Manic Sun’ by Nigel Calder, who recently also wrote, with Henrik Svensmark, ‘The Chilling Stars’. Also worth looking at is Willie Soon’s short book on Edward Maunder. __

In the politically influenced world of “climate change,” independent, sceptically minded scientists who refuse to join the herd and follow the big money flows of influence, are few and far between. But they are well worth reading for their refreshing honesty.

Cyclic Climate Change Cold is Far Deadlier than Warm Source

Cyclic Climate Change
Cold is Far Deadlier than Warm

What happens during a “Little Ice Age?” Food-producing land becomes scarcer, food-growing seasons become shorter, and the world becomes a much more arid and less hospitable place. Think food shortages and the social unrest that follows. __ Source

It is easy to understand why so many ancient cultures worshipped the sun god. Natural cycles of solar activity determine how long farmers will have to grow and harvest the crop each year. During periods of extended cold, when the temperate breadbaskets experience years “without a summer,” starvation and accompanying poverty and plague become appallingly commonplace.

We are between periods of strong glaciation, and contrary to what self-interested “climate scientists” seem to be saying through media mouthpieces, much of the modern holocene period was significantly warmer than what we are experiencing currently.

Created by Cuffy and Clow in 1997, and based on Greenland ice core records, this chart shows global temperatures for the past 15,000 years. Source

Created by Cuffy and Clow in 1997, and based on Greenland ice core records, this chart shows global temperatures for the past 15,000 years.

Why would “scientists” lie about something so important? Follow the money. Politically directed spending on research is dwarfed by ideology-driven government spending based upon the results of this “research.” But how much of the flood of politically funded research can be trusted or replicated? According to watchdog groups cited in the “follow the money” link above, perhaps 30% or less. Science is in big trouble.

Some trillions of hard-earned taxpayer dollars have been spent to combat global warming over the last three decades. __ Source

Follow the money indeed. $Trillions are being transferred and redistributed on the basis of apocalyptic climate predictions of warming. If only we could look forward to more warming and longer growing seasons in the temperate breadbaskets, rather than a long-lasting cold that brings starvation, disease, poverty, and war in its wake.

Next Grand Minimum blog

Posted in Climate, Science | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Are Black People World’s Largest Liability?

Not as Individuals, No; Mainly from Dysfunctional Black Cultures and Large Concentrations in Populations

Statistical Low Intelligence and Poor Impulse Control of Blacks Puts World Assets at Risk

The world’s largest asset class — the American housing market — is by itself worth $26 trillion. But everywhere black people go, they depress property values. If housing markets represent much of the world’s value, does the threat of black people represent much of the world’s liability?

America’s housing market… It is the world’s largest asset class, worth $26 trillion, more than America’s stockmarket. The slab of mortgage debt lurking beneath it is the planet’s biggest concentration of financial risk. __ Source

But what happened to property values in Newark, Detroit, Gary, Indiana, Birmingham, The Bronx, East St. Louis, inner Baltimore, large parts of Philadelphia, etc. etc. etc. when the black people moved in? Well before the rioting and violent crime, property values had already plummeted. Why? Because residents and potential buyers could see the crime, delinquency, and lack of upkeep coming a mile away. Sometimes, profiling accurately predicts the future.

And what is now happening to property values in no-go zones of Malmo, London, Paris, Hamburg, and other immigrant magnets?

The burning of western cities by low IQ residents and immigrants destroys not only property, but property values of surrounding neighborhoods, townships, and regions. This is a “chain-reaction” effect which occurs far more rapidly than anyone anticipated when this plague of violence, poverty, and low aptitude was first unleashed.

Low IQ, High Violence, High Poverty Black People Carry These With Them Wherever They Go

Low IQ, High Violence, High Poverty
Black People Carry These With Them Wherever They Go

Low Intelligence Means that Statistically, Most Blacks are Mind Children

Mind children are easily led — and easily misled. People of low intelligence have very limited life trajectories, and cannot attain the middle and higher reaches of human vocation and achievement. Even with total access to the world’s best education — boosted by racial preferences under the misleading term “affirmative action” — blacks as a group cannot match the achievement levels of other population groups. Because blacks cannot match other groups, they find it easy to believe that they are being “cheated” somehow, and not allowed to reap their “rightful” rewards. They are right, in a way. They have been cheated by nature, and as a result nothing can give them what they think they deserve.

Different populations have different IQ distributions. The populations with lowest statistical average IQs include Australian aborigines, sub Saharan Africans, most tribal peoples of Asia and the Americas, and inbred peoples such as Arabs.

What can people of different IQ levels achieve?

People of lowest intelligence cannot be left alone to fend for themselves, and must be watched and managed carefully. Allowing low IQ people to mix and mingle with the general population and make their own important decisions — including voting in general elections — is a recipe for escalating disaster. We see these things in North American inner cities, in the cities of SwedenGermanyFranceBelgium etc., and in the native source countries for these low intelligence peoples.

Every nation of the most advanced nations of the world — the nations of Europe and the Anglosphere — are threatened by a proliferation of low IQ, violence-prone peoples.

Throw in Poor Impulse Control and “Violent Genes” and the Plot Thickens

As we learn more about “the genetics of violence” we can gain insight into why some populations and family groups generate so much more crime and violence than western populations at large. The vastly disproportionate rates of violent crime committed by blacks in the US, for example, become more comprehensible when the genetic component is factored into the equation.

The George Soros – sponsored group — Black Lives Matter — that has spawned so much deadly violence and property crime by US blacks lately, is just one of the well organised and outside financed groups that are leading blacks to their more violently entitled tendencies. It is a form of “operant conditioning” and it is working very effectively among this statistically low IQ group. Like children, low IQ people are easily led — and misled.

The 2016 revised edition of the eye-opening report The Color of Crime, reveals that blacks commit crimes against other population groups far out of proportion to their numbers. When the numbers from the US Department of Justice are carefully scrutinised, it becomes clear that blacks are primarily the predators, while other races are being preyed upon by blacks.

Black People and Other Violence-Prone, Statistically Low-IQ Peoples Threaten Global Assets

Compare the fertility rates of the two time periods above across different geographical principalities and regions. Where are the world’s new people coming from? What does that tell you about future property values for the lucky places that will play host to these new people and their genetic descendants?

Who Will Maintain Tomorrow’s Infrastructures?

High tech societies depend upon their critical infrastructures for quality life, and their very survival. Here is a quick list of such infrastructures:

There is a good reason why countries of Africa, most of Asia, and the rest of the third world have such decrepit infrastructure. The underlying population IQ distribution does not contain enough persons sufficiently intelligent and conscientious to be engineers, physicians, technology specialists, managers, bankers, attorneys, forensics specialists, highly skilled craftsmen and maintenance men, and all of the other human infrastructure that supports high technology infrastructures of the more advanced world.

When seen in this light, the much ballyhooed “US infrastructure crisis” is more of an ideological talking point than an actual crisis. But only for now. As the plague of low-IQ, violence prone, poor impulse control peoples spreads more deeply into government policy-making and budget decisions, more critical infrastructure is likely to be neglected — as is commonplace in corrupt places such as Venezuela, Russia, Central Asia, Africa, Brasil, and India.

Why is Russia in the above list, when its population average IQ is close to 95 — well above all the others? Corruption and criminality in high places. Of course, ethnic Russia’s demography itself is on life support, with half the current population of ethnic Russians expected to evaporate over the next several decades without replacement (except perhaps by low IQ central asian muslims).

So It is Not Just Blacks Who Threaten Global Assets

No, alongside people of African descent, the people of tribal muslim nations and other low-IQ populations threaten to drown the world’s future prospects under a swamp of poverty, incompetence, corruption, and violence. So what is to be done?

An abrupt cessation of indiscriminate immigration from the third world to more advanced nations needs to be instituted immediately. Failing that, all government benefits to persons illegally in modern nations should be cut off, and efforts to deport such persons should be stepped up drastically. Any politicians and government employees who oppose such measures should be sacked, with possible legal and financial punishments considered.

As for the billionaires who sponsor the third worldification of the modern world, a long list of options presents itself — although most of them are worse than the status quo. But of those remaining, much consideration and weighing of options is called for.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. It is never too late to have a Dangerous Childhood.

Special Note:

The problem the future faces is not black people or low-intelligence and violence-prone people exclusively. The problem is the combination of bad government policy plus dysgenic demography. The people of western nations are being crushed by social and economic policies of governments that seem designed to expand dysfunctional underclasses at the expense of productive and innovative founder populations.

Not all blacks or other quasi-tribal people share the same degree of dysfunction. Like all human populations, blacks in different countries and regions occupy bell-shaped distributions when it comes to intelligence, impulse control, executive function, tendency to violence, and other characteristics. More functional blacks often suffer the most from the less functional blacks.

Black people at the higher end of the bell curve often express many of the same ideas and sentiments discussed above. See the comments of Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke, for example, on the decay of the black underclass under negligent leftist government policies.


Why Milwaukee Burns

Another look at the population average IQ of sub Saharan Africa

Hypocrisy of US President on race

Posted in Africa, Blacks and crime, Coming Anarchy, Demographics, Dysgenics | Tagged , | 10 Comments

Forget the Bread: Circuses and Wars are What Putin Offers

“Two things only the people anxiously desire — bread and circuses.” The government kept the Roman populace happy by distributing free food and staging huge spectacles. __

Putin has taken a similar approach to placating the Russian people, with the exception that Putin substitutes “war” in place of “bread.”

To Fund 2018 World Cup, Putin Robs Russia’s Schools and Hospitals

Like the ruinously expensive Sochi Olympics before it, the 2018 World Cup is shaping up to be another circus of destruction for Russia.

Russian regional governments are being asked to come up with ever more money from their own budgets to pay for the construction or reconstruction of stadiums that will allow Moscow to host the 2018 World Cup. To do so, they are being forced to divert money from the construction of schools and hospitals. __ WindowonEurasia2

Stripping budgets meant for schools and hospitals to pay for grandly extravagant gestures and wars is something we are coming to expect from the Putin regime. Other vital infrastructures that are being stripped to fund Putin’s grand Potemkin farce include transportation, badly needed rebuild of pipelines, housing, and the cleanup of fouled water, soil, and air.

In St. Petersburg:

… officials will cut 505 million rubles of funding for the construction of six schools, 313 million rubles allocated to build seven nursery schools, and approximately 1 billion rubles set aside for building seven hospitals and clinics, the document said.

Across other areas of Russia, the stripping away of support from important infrastructure in order to pay for extravagant empty gestures, is even worse proportionately.

As far as entertaining the Russian population with wars, what does it gain?

… the Russian attack on Ukraine did not cause Ukraine to fall apart (as the official Russian line went) but actually unified Ukraine and made it stronger.

In the meantime Russia became weaker. By mid-2015 Russian leaders were openly admitting this. The Russian prime minister (Dmitry Medvedev) recently gave a public speech before the Russian parliament, details of which were distributed nationwide by the state controlled media. Medvedev admitted that the military operations in Ukraine had cost Russia over $100 billion so far and would probably cost more before it is all over. He also mentioned that the sanctions made it impossible to borrow abroad. Russians also know that over $150 billion in cash held by Russian businesses has left the country because the owners felt this money would be safer abroad. __ Risks of Russian Wars

Putin got away with his invasion of Georgia and his occult conquest of Crimea. Blowback from his misadventures in eastern Ukraine are becoming legend:

Weapons flooding back into Russia from Donbass, fueling violent crime in Russia. This blowback into Russia from Donbass has been going on for years now, and is only likely to get worse. Russia’s fractured allies in Donbass fight among themselves and even against Russians in east Ukraine.

It is taking the Russian people longer than one might expect to catch on to the grandiose Putin neo-imperial shenanigans, but as premature death follows premature death, the dwindling survivors of Putin’s war on the people are learning regret and an expanding despair from these destructive wars and circuses.

More rarely heard stories from the heart of Putin’s darkness (from WOE2):

Russian Standard of Living Now Back to 1989 Levels. After rising in the first decade of this century to 15 percent more than at the end of Soviet times, the real standard of living Russians now have has fallen back 15 percent over the last three years and now stands just where it did in 1989, according to Russian economists (уровень-жизни-россиян-вернулся-к-1989-год/). Other bad economic news this week included reports that Russia is permanently losing millions of jobs (, that the decline in industrial production has resumed and even accelerated (, that the elections may accelerate the country’s economic collapse (, and that ever fewer Russians are applying for passports to travel abroad ( Of course, this last may have another explanation: Russians may not want to attract attention to their desire to leave Russia today.

German Journalist Says Potholes in Russian Roads Reduce Highway Deaths There. A [German] journalist has praised one of the things that most Russians condemn: the horrific state of Russian roads. He says that the potholes that mar most of the highways there are good things because they force drivers to go more slowly and thus reduce the number of traffic deaths ( Meanwhile, Moscow has announced plans to increase the length of toll roads in Russia from 500 kilometers now to 2,000 by 2020. No word on whether these will be pothole free and thus more dangerous, however (

Infant Mortality Up in Crimea Since Russian Anschluss. Infant mortality is one of the most sensitive measures of how a society deals with its most defenseless. Since Russia occupied Crimea, deaths among newborns have shot up (

Russian population set to decline by 50% over next several decades

The hope of the 25 year old Russian revolution and how Putin has tried to destroy all hope

A Soviet Past, a Soviet Future

Across southern Russia young girls being mutilated with Putin’s tacit blessing

Posted in Russia, Russian Decline | Tagged | Leave a comment

Hillary Pooped, Takes 4 Days Off at the Height of Campaign Season

[Hillary] apparently is prone to exhaustion, which may be why she has no events planned.

Discussing the Democratic National Convention, Clinton recently said during a campaign podcast, “By the end of those two weeks that’s exactly how I felt, it was, ‘Oh my gosh, I don’t know that I can get up, let alone what I will do if I am vertical.’”

… The Gateway Pundit noted Clinton took 7 of the first 14 days off in August.

She has trouble standing on her own, and is constantly propped up by handlers and media.

Hillary Pooped Source

Hillary Pooped

Looking as “un-presidential” as possible, Hillary poops out onstage after only one public appearance for the day, in front of a poorly-filled high school gymnasium.

Amid rumours that Hillary is suffering from Traumatic Brain Disorder, Parkinson’s Disease, Complex Partial Seizures, Sub-cortical Dementia, and several other neurological disorders — including some related to chronic alcoholism — more medical observers are calling for Clinton to release her full medical records.

Trump has more than ten times the number of people at his campaign events than Hillary has at hers since August 1st. More than 100,000 people have shown up for Trump events since the beginning of August (with many more turned away due to the events reaching capacity). Hillary on the other hand hasn’t even had one tenth of that or not even 10,000 show up at her events since August 1st.


Neurosurgeon Ben Carson calls for Clinton to release her records to the public

Neuro-Otologist Gerard Gianoli calls for release of Clinton medical records

“America’s most trusted physician” calls for release of Clinton medical records

Dr. Jane Orient, executive director of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, is concerned that Clinton’s brain injury may be the cause of organic brain syndrome or decreased mental function.

“Obviously, it would be very dangerous for a person subject to symptoms like this to be dealing with foreign leaders or making critical decisions,” Dr. Orient states. __

Million dollar bounty placed on Clinton’s medical records [Dead or Alive😉 ]

While Milwaukee Burns and Trump Fills Up Large Stadiums with Crowds

Hillary is barely filling small venues, having seizure-like episodes, taking several days to rest in the middle of a campaign, struggling up and down stairs, and with the help of a smokescreen media is maintaining a lead in most national and state level polls.

Trump is filling huge stadiums with enthusiastic followers and despite handfuls of utterly idiotic public statements is still in the race, with a chance to win.

Hillary’s True Records May Never See the Light of Day

Records can be altered, although it is a criminal matter for physicians to alter the records of their patients. Nevertheless, when it comes to the Clintons it is well known that crimes and criminal penalties only apply to little people — people for whom the Clintons no longer have any use.

That being said, Hillary’s records are almost certainly being thoroughly sanitised just in case it is necessary to release them. If the crime of illegal alteration later comes to light, someone else will pay for the crime. All that matters is somehow reaching the pinnacle of power, at any cost.


Rumours of Parkinson’s Disease and flash-induced seizure

Questions about Clinton’s Coumadin use

The news media is overwhelmingly in Hillary Clinton’s corner. I am surprised that Trump has been able to stay within reach so long after his nomination. Trump’s staying power — despite his habit of using his foot to pick his own teeth — suggests that the media does not have as much power as it once had. Unless the easily-exhausted Hillary pulls much farther ahead, the media-elitist axis may resort to desperate acts.

Special note: The animated gif below is being moved to the bottom of the posting for illustrative purposes.

The gif is edited to exaggerate Hillary’s seizure activity while being questioned by reporters. The actual video footage is suggestive enough of neurological disorder without having to distort the video in an attempt to make the problem appear worse. H/T to commenter yoananda for pointing out the “forward-reverse” style of looping introduced.

Compare the animated gif above with the actual video footage from different camera angles:

The animated gif is flashy and entertaining, but it is misleading, is not what actually happened, and is unnecessary to make the point.

Posted in Politics | Tagged | 9 Comments

China’s Economic Conundrum

Better Measurements of China’s Economic Growth Picture

China is desperate for global clout of the economic, political, and military varieties. China’s future prospects rest upon China’s economic growth, but reliable figures for China’s true growth are difficult to come by, even for China’s leaders.

The Conference Board Measurements Cut Through Some of the Smokescreen

We know that the Chinese Communist Party has been overstating China’s economic growth and productivity for several years now — at least since the 2008 global deleveraging. Better estimates by reputable outside groups place China’s GDP growth close to 4.5%, rather than the nearly 7% figure provided by Chinese government officials. China’s boom times are over.

A broader look at Chinese economic growth comes from a respected international group of over 1200 member companies established in 1912, known as the Conference Board. In the Forbes article by Paul Gregory excerpted below, two useful figures based on Conference Board estimates look at GDP trends as well as trends in TPF, Total Productivity Factor.

The media have largely ignored the alternative estimates of Chinese growth of the Conference Board. These calculations (discussed below) claim that China’s growth has been overstated by some thirty percent over the reform era, that it has averaged around five percent for the past five years[Most] Alarming is the collapse of total factor productivity (TFP) since 2010, a pattern reminiscent of the USSR during its protracted period of stagnation preceding its collapse.

… the private Conference Board is a prominent source of data on the world economy, human capital, and technological progress. Among economists, the Conference Board is known for its productivity calculations and for continuing the path-breaking work of the late Angus Maddison’s Groningen Growth Center. International organizations report official country statistics, but the independent Conference Board prepares alternate estimates of suspect national statistics and even includes Taiwan (the world’s 21st largest economy) in its data set. Its stated goal is to provide “objective, world-renowned economic data and analyses that help business and policy leaders make sense of their operating environments.”

The Conference Board has reconstructed China’s GDP using methods reminiscent of recalculations of Soviet growth during the Cold War era. Among other adjustments, the Conference Board builds Chinese industrial production from the bottom-up from physical output series, lowers the official (and unprecedentedly-high) service productivity growth, and raises some of the inflation figures used for deflation of nominal GDP. The Conference Board sets out the details of its recalculations in a hundred page working paper. Thus, we know more about the Conference Board’s data series than about China’s official figures (China Statistical Yearbook).

As someone who earlier worked on the Soviet figures, the Conference Board recalculations seem reasonable, and should be considered as a welcome alternate perspective on China’s economic growth during its reform era.

The accompanying figure compares the Official-Chinese and revised Conference Board growth figures (five year averages from 1980-85 to 2010-15) with Taiwan and South Korea during their period of rapid growth from 1960-65 to 1990-1995. I use five-year averages to remove the effects of business cycles.


What do these GDP figures tell us? First … Over the past five years, China’s growth has averaged below 5 percent according to the Conference Board versus the official figure of 7.5 percent. Only the most recent figures have attracted attention in the ongoing China soft landing debate. The value of the Conference Board series is, however, in its long-term nature. The business press, meanwhile, is interested in the last quarter.

Second …China’s thirty-year growth spurt replicates the Southeast Asian experience of earlier years. Let’s not forget Japan – the original East Asian miracle — which grew at an average rate of ten percent between 1950 and 1970. Exceptionally high growth rates appear to be a trademark of Southeast Asian countries that abandon state planning, have high domestic savings, and open up to the world economy.

The Conference Board’s … unique total factor productivity (TFP) series measure the extent to which economies grow “intensively” through technological advances rather than “extensively” by expanding human and physical capital. A concept largely familiar to professional economists, TFP is the “residual” growth not explained by the growth of labor and capital inputs. If, for example, GDP grows 3 percent and capital and labor grow by a combined 2 percent, TFP grows 1 percent and accounts for one-third of GDP growth. As the example shows, TFP is calculated from two figures: GDP growth and combined labor and capital growth, both of which are reported in the Conference Board 2014 data base updated to 2015.
__ Paul Gregory in Forbes

China’s Total Factor Productivity Trend shows Ominous Similarities to the Late USSR

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is a better measure of a country’s long-term economic dynamism than is the more amorphous measure known as GDP. Like many economic indexes, the GDP often obscures more than it reveals. The TFP provides a more incisive and dynamic view of a nation’s economy — especially when measured over time.

The accompanying chart shows China’s TFP growth throughout the reform era. The official GDP figures yield productivity growth five times higher than the Conference Board series over the entire period. Both series show falling TFP after 2001. By 2012-2015, both sets yield either near zero or negative TFP growth. So in the better 2012-2015 case, GDP and capital and labor inputs expanded at about the same rate with no productivity advances. In the worst case, capital and labor inputs expanded faster than output for negative productivity growth! The Conference Board data base suggests that cases of negative TFP growth are rare except in times of world recessions such as 1998 and 2008.



In the USSR case, declining rates of growth of GDP and TFP became irreversible after 1970. The ill-fated Gorbachev economic reforms made matters only worse. In the China case, the decline in TFP became pronounced in the early two thousands. With demographic factors allowing for little or no labor force growth, China’s GDP growth has been driven by unprecedented rates of investment. The declining TFP rates are therefore due to falling returns on capital, which Conference Board specialists blame on China’s “socialist-market economy,” which distorts economic incentives, deprives private enterprises of capital, and allocates state investment in favor of state enterprises. Whereas in the 1980s, China’s rates of return on capital were about average for BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), current returns have fallen to about half. Interest rates on bank loans to large state owned enterprises remain around 6 percent, while private businesses pay 25 percent. Preferential terms for real estate developments have left Chinese cities with empty high rises with no buyers and opera houses with no opera.

China’s economic fate is in the hands of its leaders. Unlike Gorbachev thirty-five years earlier strapped with a planned economy and no blueprint for transition, China’s economy operates in the world economy, has access to technology, and receives foreign direct investment. Reform of capital markets, the banking sector, and municipal government administration would go a long way in reversing the collapse of output and TFP growth as would secure property rights.

Such reforms, however, seem unlikely. Premier Xi has declared the state sector the “backbone” of the economy. Party cadres have been instructed to take the teachings of Karl Marx seriously. Private businesses do not hold out hope for equal and fair treatment under Xi’s socialism with a Chinese face. Successful business owners will continue to plan their emigration to Canada or Australia before the long arm of the state and party catches up with them. China’s puzzle has been it rapid growth despite its miserable (144th) economic freedom index ranking. Perhaps China’s performance is starting to reflect the low quality of its institutions.

__ Paul Gregory in Forbes

Under Xi, the future prospects for China appear shaky, similar to the prospects of Russia under Putin. Neither country is willing to provide reliable statistics to global analysts. Both nations are arming themselves for regional wars on multiple fronts, as well as for military action in outer space, nuclear attacks over longer distances, and increasingly threatening cyber attacks – thefts – espionage – blackmail – and sabotage.

Rather than picking sides and rooting for a team — as in football — smarter people would set their own houses in order, and make provisions for a long cold winter.


Private Chinese companies back away from investing in China

China’s shiny new military equipment is second-rate and likely to fail in wartime

despite the PLA’s growing budget, its equipment is marred by industrial deficiency and corruption, especially in high-tech fields such as avionics, where’s China’s best Soviet-designed jet fighters must struggle with locally produced, failure-prone engines or make do with aging Russian-supplied engines.

In 2013, a PLA commander lost over half of the vehicles in his tank battalion to mechanical failure as they attempted a 9-day march during a training exercise in Inner Mongolia.

As in Russia, corruption in China’s military is out of control. This leaves these militaries in the lurch when it comes to real world preparedness.

Never forget

Posted in China | Tagged | 2 Comments

Once a Purveyor of Hope . . . Now a Bringer of Pain and Fear

Where Did the Hope Go? Source

Where Did the Hope Go?

We could be talking about “President Hope and Change Obama,” who has single-handedly set back US national and international relations and opportunities decades. But there is another former “president of hope” on the world stage who has transformed his country in a deeply negative way:

Almost 17 years ago, Putin became a “president of hope,” as defined at that time by Russia’s most renowned sociologist Yury Levada, the founder of the Levada Center.

… This has all changed. In the latest Levada poll, the highest number of respondents in recent years say they have never relied on the president. The dreams of the past are long gone by now.

“There are no hopes,” says Alexei Levinson, the lead researcher of the Levada Center. “If there are hopes, they are meaningless, not so different from despair…

Putin’s public image is transforming into that of a warlord. That’s his major political asset at home, the new pillar of his popularity, and that’s how his countrymen increasingly expect him to act and react on the global scene. __ Mikhail Fishman in The Moscow Times

All hope is gone. 41% of Russians have too little to spend on food and clothing — often a fatal failing in Russia’s long, dark, frigid winters. But there is just enough to scrape together for cheap moonshine. That is the one indispensable item for human consumption that Russians cannot do without.

Putin is extremely good at tactical moves, but fails in strategy.

…Investment continues to decline, both industrial and in residential construction. Private consumption declines as well, while Russian people say they are cutting their purchases of goods and services to survive. __ Sergey Aleksashenko in The Moscow Times

Putin Behaving More Erratically; Becoming Suspicious and Isolated Like Stalin

Putin has been purging Russia’s hierarchy — even to the level of his own inner circle of power.

“Putin, who is known for his loyalty to longtime associates, has left some of his friends vulnerable to attack. This is a new stage of Putin’s rule,” political commentator Leonid Bershidsky wrote in Bloomberg…

You can call it another day of the long knives. You can call it Kremlin musical chairs. Or you can call it Vladimir Putin’s own personal game of thrones.

But by whatever name, Vladimir Putin’s dismissal of his powerful chief of staff and longtime confidant Sergei Ivanov did not happen in isolation.

Combined with last month’s mass shake-up of regional and federal elites — which saw four regional governors, four federal district chiefs, and a disgraced customs boss replaced — it illustrates that these are far from normal times for Russia’s ruling elite.

Putin is effectively abandoning an elite personnel policy resembling Leonid Brezhnev’s “stability of cadres” approach and toward one reminiscent of Josef Stalin’s — minus, of course, the mass executions of ousted officials. __ RFERL

Well, we have not seen mass executions — yet. But Putin is approaching the years when Russian men typically decline, physically and mentally. His behaviours have become increasingly erratic and counterproductive to his stated aims. It is becoming more difficult to claim that Putin is in full possession of his faculties with every decision.

Putin’s ginned up “crisis in Crimea” is a perfect example of Putin’s potentially catastrophic decision making. What is looking more and more like an “own goal” with Russians killing Russians, is being portrayed by Putin as an act of war by Ukrainian intelligence troops against the “sovereign Russian territory of Crimea.”

Why is Putin putting on this big show? Some speculation:

Putin’s political party, United Russia, faces elections in September amid increasing discontent in both Crimea and Russia over a deteriorating economy, which has seen the ruble lose half its value against the dollar. Opposition parties might be hopelessly divided, but public unhappiness over the economy could nonetheless erode support for the ruling party. Claims that Russian forces are under attack can be used to rally Russians around the president’s political team.

Additionally, Russia is in the midst of a major military expansion. Its forces are engaged in combat in Syria and Ukraine and are present in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria enclave, as well as in North Ossetia and Abkhazia (as self-declared “peacekeepers”). Vast investments in military power could come under pressure as Russians are told they will have to tighten their belts. A dangerous new threat in Crimea can be used to justify sacrifice in the name of greater preparedness. __ More at source

It is easy to see the tactician Putin flailing for advantage, as the economy of Russia declines and the people of Russia feel more pain, suffering, and deprivation while Russia’s elites continue living a Marie Antoinette lifestyle.

The central city of Moscow has enjoyed an expensive new facelift in preparation for the coming September elections. This is certain to impress Muscovites wealthy enough to frequent this sink of Russia’s diminishing wealth, and no doubt looks good on state and propaganda television. But the underlying reality of national decline cannot be obscured by glitz and glamour in selected sectors of Moscow.

In the Real Russia, People are Once Again Stealing Power Lines for Copper

In other news from Russia:

xHow Bad is the Russian Economy? Russians Again Stealing Power Lines. In the 1990s, some Russians stole power lines to earn money for food. Now that practice is back ( Other economic news is equally bleak: Russia is exporting 45 percent less electric power than a year ago (, trade with China in which Putin has placed such hopes continues to fall (, migrants are bringing more money to the Russian budget than are oil and gas revenues (, Russia pumping more oil even though prices have fallen – just as Soviets did in 1987 (, Moscow can find only 16 percent of money needed to prevent disaster in company towns (, foreigners are pulling money out of Russian stock funds at an unprecedented rate (, the North Caucasus has sunk into an economic depression (, and sales of apartments in new Moscow highrises have stopped because there is no money and no demand (

__ More from Window on Eurasia

Note: For those who cannot read Russian, a number of online translators — including Google’s — can provide a fair translation to most of the linked articles above.

Under Putin, Russia has become the new centre of HIV spread and drug-resistant TB. Russians are being forced to trade in hopes of a better future, replacing them with fantasies of Russian greatness. Bootleg moonshine and cheap illegal tobacco set the scenes for the enjoyment of state propaganda television fairy tales. Drug addiction, alcoholism, and suicide provide escape for those who no longer believe the feces they are being fed by Kremlin spokesmen. Quality of food and water are in decline, critical infrastructures of all kinds are crumbling, and too many of the people can no longer afford to buy the low quality goods that are available. Beneath it all, the demographics of ethnic Russians continue in slow motion collapse. Thanks a lot, Putin.

More —

Where Putin is at his best:

Putin is a proven master at manipulating emergencies — real or imagined — to reach his political ends. Starting from his very first days in power, he has been using the threat of terrorism and broadly defined extremism to re-centralize Russia’s political system. For 16 years he has been able to keep the country in a near-constant state of alarm. __

The fear factor of Putin’s rule is palpable from Moscow to London to Toronto.

George Friedman adds his perspective:

The Russian economy has declined precipitously and is still declining. This has to be hurting President Vladimir Putin’s political position, especially among senior officials and oligarchs who constitute the Russian elite. Putin has been increasing his power lately, replacing some governors with his former bodyguards. But actions like that don’t make him appear powerful to us. On the contrary, it makes us think that he is extremely worried and trying to shore up his position.

… The Russians have fought all their wars from Napoleon on with an economy in shambles. It is their normal condition.

__ George Friedman

History shows us that Russia has never been a great power, other than when it stole, borrowed, or was given technology by the west. A realistic appraisal of today’s Russia reveals a still-pathetic nation in decline, with growing problems that have become impossible to solve — thanks to a myopic leadership that looks at a dying bear and sees a great global empire.


Venezuela — the new Russian future? The gulags are calling.

“Putin is purging old friends and replacing them with servants,” Kremlin-connected analyst Stanislav Belkovsky told “These people reminded [Putin] of a time before he was a boss, let alone President … Now he needs executors, not advisers.” In other words, Putin is removing anybody capable of standing up to him.

… Putin is also fighting hard to remove crippling economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and the EU in the wake of the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 by a surface-to-air missile supplied by Russia to Ukrainian rebels in July 2014.

… Whatever is happening at the Kremlin, the Curse of August has brought about one thing at least: A sense of late-summer peril.


Fear, menace, peril, hardship. Days of decline, days of Putin.

Posted in Russian Decline | Tagged | 3 Comments

Why Blacks Destroy Everything They Inherit

… no one will talk about the painful fact that most African and Caribbean nations have either failed or are about to collapse.

From South Africa to Zimbabwe to Jamaica to Detroit to much of London, African blacks are destroying their inheritances for the lack of ability to manage and maintain complex infrastructures. Why does this happen?

Zulu King Goodwill Zwelethini “History will judge black people harshly as they have failed to build on the successes of the Afrikaners,” he said, before continuing to explain that “black people loved to use matches to burn down infrastructure” built by the white government. Source

Zulu King Goodwill Zwelethini
“History will judge black people harshly as they have failed to build on the successes of the Afrikaners,” he said, before continuing to explain that “black people loved to use matches to burn down infrastructure” built by the white government.

King of the Zulus, Goodwill Zwelethini, despairs of how South African blacks have done nothing but destroy the once impressive infrastructure built by white South African immigrants and their descendants. But on the larger world stage, no one will talk about how there are no successful black-led countries in the entire world.

Black People Shame Themselves

it is no surprise that in the absence of any healthy black nation — in the midst of chaos, senseless wars, corrupted religiosity, violence, and economic collapse — African and Caribbean people leave home en masse. They beg on the streets of Greece, prostitute in the red-light zones of the Netherlands, and make up 40 percent of the migrants flocking to Europe. As they turn up in these countries, helpless, unwanted, starved, or maimed, they are treated like dogs. … Everywhere from Ukraine to India, nearly every day, black indignity, black helplessness, stares us in the face. And all we do, we who hold the platform can do, is scream “racism!” and court the sympathy of others. __ Chigozi Obioma in Foreign Policy

Why is it that Africans can never seem to rule themselves, or build a successful nation — or even a city? When blacks emigrate to the west they bring their dysfunction, poverty, underachievement, violence, and angry victimhood with them.

More than 2/3 s of the world’s poorest nations are located in sub Saharan Africa or are populated by people of African descent. Africa and African-populated nations are at the forefront of global corruption, violence, poverty, instability — and fertility.

Economic Success Correlates With National Average IQ More at VDare

Economic Success Correlates With National Average IQ
More at VDare

Blacks who get jobs thanks to Affirmative Action, almost never carry out their duties with the same level of competence as the whites who came before them. I see this day after day, repeating itself thousands of times over – and not just in South Africa today. This has been going on in lots of other African countries. And it is clear that the problem is not with white people – the problem is with the blacks themselves. But how many black people are willing to admit it?


African descended blacks have little or no basis for pride or sense of achievement. As long as they beg, harangue, and demand that others do everything for them, this will continue to be the case.

“As soon as we have problems, we ask someone else to take care of them for us,” Isaac continued. “We ask the Europeans. We ask the Americans. We ask the Chinese. We will run this train into the ground, and then we will tell the Chinese we need another one. This is not development.” I thought of the wreckage by the tracks. In China, there is no such thing as metallic waste. Armies of migrant workers scour the countryside with hammers and chisels, collecting and selling every scrap to the insatiable smelters that feed the country’s industries. Here, by contrast, was a land without industry. __ Atlantic

Power outages were not a problem before majority rule swept over South Africa like a dysfunctional flood. But now they are commonplace, like over most of the rest of the devastated dark continent.

White rule in South Africa ended in 1994. It was about ten years later that power outages began, which eventually reached crisis proportions. The principle reason for this is simply lack of maintenance on the generating equipment. Maintenance is future-oriented, and the Zulu entry in the dictionary for it is ondla, which means: “1. Nourish, rear; bring up; 2. Keep an eye on; watch (your crop).” In short, there is no such thing as maintenance in Zulu thought, and it would be hard to argue that this is wholly unrelated to the fact that when people throughout Africa say “nothing works,” it is only [a slight] exaggeration.
__ How Africans Differ from Westerners

The article linked above describes how Africans typically have no concept of obligation, or maintenance. Lacking the concepts, they are never expected to follow through with the necessary work required to keep machinery working, to show up to work on time, or to support a family. These same failures one sees in native Africans have somehow transplanted themselves into African immigrants in Europe, North America, and elsewhere. More

Average IQs in sub Saharan African blacks range between 60 and 80, depending on the methods of measurement. The most repeatable estimates centre on an average IQ of 70 to 75 for African blacks. Whether this low level of average intelligence is mostly due to inheritance or to environmental factors remains to be completely proven. This cannot be done for reasons of political correctness. But measurements of the African diaspora to western countries suggests that black African IQs will remain at least 1 standard deviation below those of Europeans and East Asians, regardless of the quality of education, nutrition, and intellectual enrichment provided.

IQ Distributions

IQ Distributions

Average intelligence tells us much less than the distributions at the upper and lower ends of the curve. It is at the upper end of the IQ curve where one finds Nobel Prize winners and the great innovators and managers in their fields. As you can see from the curve above, one finds almost no black Africans at such levels of IQ, and very few diaspora blacks. It is at the lower end of the IQ curve where one finds those unable to cope with ordinary mental challenge and responsibility. African populations have high numbers of these, who tend to burden social systems and law enforcement agencies to the breaking point.

Without sufficient numbers of bright innovators, planners, managers, scientists, engineers, medical leaders, technologists, craftsmen, law enforcement detectives and forensic specialists, and mid-level professionals etc., black majority countries (and cities) don’t stand a chance to transcend the natural levels of crime, corruption, violence, underachievement, dysfunctional lifestyles, and low intelligence that plague populations of African descent wherever they may go to live.

At the same time, being overburdened by large numbers of dependent — but very fertile — adults reduces productivity and increases poverty to untenable levels.

In truth, Africans have little hope that things will change for the better, on their own. African hopes generally rest on outsiders, from the Chinese to the Indians to the Europeans and so on.

On the scales of violence, intelligence, corruption, rule of law, disease rates, life expectancy, poverty, and almost any other measure of nation against nation, black African states show themselves in a bad light.


Black Africa is not the only part of the world that is squandering its inheritance and destroying its conquests, of course.

Sadly, the once-proud Russian people are likewise losing hope:

“There are no hopes,” says Alexei Levinson, the lead researcher of the Levada Center. “If there are hopes, they are meaningless, not so different from despair. Social conscience is equally — and simultaneously — ready to feel both.”

The future is perceived as “murky, deformed, inspiring fear,” wrote Denis Volkov, also from the Levada Center, in the Vedomosti newspaper on Aug. 8. One might take that thought a step further: In today’s Russia, there is only one thing that unites — or, to put it more accurately — fragments the whole nation. It is the lack of any vision of the future, shared by everyone, with no exception. __ No Hope in Russia

We have pointed out such eerie parallels between Africa and Russia in the past. No doubt they will continue to pop up due to the strange ties that link the two large land masses and the psychologies of their people.

Posted in Africa, Blacks and crime | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Green Billionaires Threaten Foundation of Modern Societies

Under Cover of Darkness Source

Under Cover of Darkness

Warren Buffet, billionaire and major investor in wind energy, has admitted that wind isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be. “The only reason to build them [wind farms]” is the subsidies; “They don’t make sense without” them.

… As with the financial sector, renewables have had a boom led by government intervention and hedging that may ultimately bust as markets can’t efficiently work. This would not only threaten the reliability and price of electricity, but it would also come at the expense of taxpayers.


Yes. Even kindly, grandfatherly Warren Buffet is weakening the foundations of your reality. Not with good intentions — only to make a few more fistfulls of dollars.

Corrupt billionaires are getting richer by risking lives, robbing taxpayers, and victimising the poor.

If power grids go down, entire societies will go down

Increased penetration of such asynchronous resources [big wind and big solar], all else equal, will likely adversely impact bulk grid reliability

As the penetration level of asynchronous generation increases this will either increase cost, limit operational flexibility, degrade reliability or most likely result in a combination of all three factors __ Judith

Western societies are built upon their critical infrastructure — and all critical infrastructures rely upon electrical power grids. Anything that makes electrical power grids less reliable and more prone to failure creates unacceptable risks to society as a whole. But that is exactly the type of risk that intermittent, unreliable, energy inputs such as big wind and big solar are introducing at increasing scales.

Germany’s energy minister has warned that the continuation of current policies [Energiewende] risks the “deindustrialization” of the country’s economy.

…. in 2016, renewable-energy surcharges will cost the average German household about $721. European countries are seeing big increases in industrial rates, too. During 2005–14, industrial electricity prices in the EU increased by 46 percent, nearly twice the increase seen in the U.S. over the same period. Industrial electricity prices in the U.K. jumped by 133 percent, to 16.6 cents per kilowatt-hour, among the highest rates in the European Union.

Over the same period, industrial rates in Spain jumped by 84 percent, to 15.8 cents per kilowatt-hour.


Since Germany’s wealth depends upon its industrial export sector, a deindustrialised Germany is a dead Germany.

Corrupt billionaires with insider connections are not only putting power grids at risk of failure, they are driving consumer electricity costs to exorbitant, poverty-inducing levels. The billionaire-owned media refuse to discuss this ongoing scandal, although the corrupt and larcenous reality behind the censored con-game is not that hard to ferret out.

The link below provides “a technical and economic analysis of the European electricity system” which clarifies the ongoing tragedy:

Currently, variable RES (wind and solar PV) have priority access to the system, and the volume of production has so far only had a marginal impact on the system. However, the large scale introduction of variable RES will have a marked impact on the structure and operation of the electricity system at all levels. The paper examined the infrastructure requirements (inter-connectors, reinforcements), on existing generators, on the flexibility (storage, stability and demand) and costs/profits in order to accommodate 40% variable RES (wind and solar PV).


As more and more big wind and big solar energy are forced onto the grid — and as more fossil fuel and nuclear plants are removed — the risks of chaotic breakdown grow exponentially.

If you want to learn what’s really going on, you will never find out from reading the New York Times or Washington Post, whose missions in this area are basically to suppress all information that is important to know.

… __

Intelligent persons immediately understand that critical life-or-death power demands must be met instantaneously — at the instant the power is needed. Wind and sun are unreliable, intermittent, squander immense tracts of land, and too often produce energy at the exact times it is NOT needed — energy that must therefore be dumped at additional expense. Backing up unreliable energy generators with more reliable generation — gas, coal, nuclear — is becoming less and less viable for utilities and power producers, given the many perverse government incentive structures.

Energy storage is not the answer due to the enormous tacked-on costs involved which leads to hugely greater costs which must be paid for by someone.

Thanks to insider corruption by green billionaires and politicians such as Obama and Clinton, the focus has been shifted away from the production of high quality, life-saving, prosperity promoting reliable power — toward stuffing the pocketbooks of political insiders in the name of climate apocalypse. Much is being risked for no good reason.

Since July 2010 we have been exposing the fact that the big green deals involve cronies, collusion and tons of taxpayer cash. We have unleashed a treasure trove of evidence to back up this claim, which stems from over six years of extensive research. This also included ongoing House Oversight reports, and hearings; Department of Energy (DOE) internal emails; Energy and Commerce Committee Reports, Inspector General reports; Whistle blower Intel as well as 2012 Revelations (57-page, “Sensitive & Confidential” memo) that revealed the real intent behind Obama’s trillion-dollar spending spree, of which $100 billion was earmarked for green energy.

We’ve analyzed various publications and non partisan studies covering the topic and so much more –– all leading to the conclusion that President Obama’s green energy revolution and radical climate change agenda is a Big Green Heist: the largest, most expensive and deceptive case of crony capitalism in American History.

Considering that the Clinton Foundation has been operating inside the climate racket for some time, a year ago I published an overview on how many of these same “green players” are also donors to the Clinton Foundation.

After months of digging, I found tons more. Thus my final chapter will be devoted to proving beyond a reasonable doubt that the Democrat presumptive presidential nominee, Hillary Rodham Clinton, is not on only in bed with Big Money (Wall Street, the Uber-Rich, special interests groups and lobbyists) Dark Money (Super PACS and Secret Cash), she’s also bankrolled and in cahoots with –– directly and through her husband and her family foundation –– the wealthy Green Gangsters, who are robbing U.S. taxpayers in order to “save the planet.” __


Who are the guilty billionaires who are pushing societies to the brink of critical infrastructure failure?

Warren Buffet
Tom Steyer
Elon Musk
Christy Walton
George Soros
Every billionaire who publicly, financially, and politically supports the great green catastrophic weakening of modern critical infrastructure

Green billionaires are weakening the foundations of western societies. When things break down, the consequences will not be what you expect. One imaginative scenario of what happens after the green billionaires have weakened the foundations of society to the level of breakdown:

The longer the power is out, the more people will die. In multicultural communities, the probability of large orgies of violence approaches unity as blackouts linger on.

In an Extended Power Outage Humans Will Find it Almost Impossible to Find Essentials

Clean Water — no power for water pumps
Food — store shelves will be cleared within hours or days
Fuel — no power for fuel pumps and refiners
Sanitation — sewers back up into homes and businesses
Fire Fighting — Limited water supplies soon exhausted
Health Care — Medicines, Surgery, Emergency Respons, Intensive Care (Backup Generators eventually succumb)
Protection from rioters, marauders, murderers, slavers
Transportation out of the city

Much useful technical analyses of the impact of increased penetration of big wind and big solar on modern critical electrical power infrastructure

Make no mistake. The billionaires listed — and thousands more who promote and benefit from the green degradation of modern power grids — are guilty of conspiring to weaken the foundations of life for billions of people. Some of them are merely greedy and corrupt fools who rake in government handouts or bask in the self righteousness of destructive and incompetent fools. Others are fully conscious of what they are doing and will be directly responsible for any catastrophes that result from their well planned actions.

Cyber attack:

“By one estimate, should the power go out and stay out for over a year, nine out of 10 Americans would likely perish,” said Frank Gaffney, founder and president of the Center for Security Policy in Washington. __ Source

EMP attack:

Important Note: No green billionaires were killed in the writing of this blog posting.


French-style wind energy corruption and incompetence flows into Texas (Background)
Texas taxpayers need to take a close look at financial ties between politicians and EDF executives and board members.

Big wind and solar are the kiss of death. Wishful thinking and a sense of self-righteous arrogance cannot save you when too much unreliable intermittent energy causes your grid to crack and fail

Energy policy determines the life and death of society — and it is in the hands of brainwashed children and fanatical ideologues.


China’s green billionaires run into government subsidy slowdown

Indian born billionaire Naveen Jain looks to the moon for future energy and materials needs

Renewables to cause blackouts in Australia

Posted in Doom, Electrical Power Grid, Energy, Green Quagmire, TEOTWAWKI | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Russian Schoolteachers Face Difficult Challenges

[The] Kremlin is convinced that professionals who are paid more than $1,500 a month are a potential threat…

Moscow Times

To economize on teachers’ salaries is to condemn the country to serious problems in the future. That is obvious. It will inevitably result in a low-quality system of education. __ Source

Teacher’s Pay Not Enough for Food, Clothing

Russian Schoolteacher's Dilemma Source

Russian Teachers’ Dilemma

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev … told teachers who are upset by their extremely low salaries that they have only themselves to blame and should become businessmen and businesswomen if they want more money ( Not surprisingly, many teachers are outraged, and one outlet has come up with examples of the second jobs that teachers have to take in order to make ends meet. Among these jobs, the survey finds, are work as prostitutes and striptease dancers. __ More

Teachers, doctors, and workers of all kinds in Russia are struggling to find enough money to pay for food to eat and clothes to wear. Some mothers are so desperate they are offering to sell their organs so that children can be fed: ” A woman in Rostov oblast has been driven to despair over her inability to feed her children and has offered to sell her heart to anyone who needs it so that there will be money enough after her death to feed her children.” Source via WOE2 Things are not getting better.

41% of Russians Say There is No Money for Food or Clothing

These numbers are up from the same research conducted in May, which concluded that 40% of the population could not afford basic goods such as food and clothing, and 21.1% considered themselves to be in a poor personal financial situation.

The Higher School of Economics’ findings were based on polls conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center and information provided by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).

According to the surveys, 31% of retirees consider their financial situation to be poor, compared to 20-22% in the spring.

The HSE’s study noted that the majority of Russians have a negative outlook in regard to the economic situation in the country. Only 19-21% of respondents believed that the most difficult times were behind them.


These numbers from the Moscow Higher School of Economics tell a story that is diametrically opposite to what Kremlin trolls and propagandists are attempting to sell. Instead of rebounding, Russia’s economy only sinks lower and lower, and the people’s suffering increases.

Russian leaders, however, are quite understanding. Wealthy themselves, they go out of their way to relate to unfortunate workers who have been blindsided by the consequences of Kremlin decisions over the past 2 1/2 years. Certainly Putin ignores their plight, but Medvedev goes out of his way to provide helpful advice:


Medvedev suggested that teachers can “make ends meet” by “lecturing” on the side and taking on second jobs, and anyway, this is all your own fault, teachers:

“Every person chooses what’s important to him in life… If you just want to make money, then there are many wonderful places where you can do that. But you didn’t go into business, did you? Well, there you go.”

There you go. You went into education. Now you can’t survive on your salary alone, there you go.

The prime minister, who briefly kept Putin’s presidential throne warm from 2008 to 2012, is currently working out three annual budgets while exalting the Napoleonic code. With Russia ass-deep in a recession, he’s used to questions about money, and this is not the first time he’s given an answer that strains the people’s capacity for relentless government cynicism.

When visiting Crimea in May, the prime minister was confronted on the street by an angry elderly woman who asked him if the abysmal pensions are going to be raised any time soon.

“There’s just no money right now,” Medvedev said, shuffling quickly away. “You hang in there. Best wishes! Cheers! Take care!” __

After recent pay cuts, Russian schoolteachers may earn under $160 per month — less than teachers make in Mexico, Turkey, or Greece — making it difficult to feed and clothe themselves, much less a family. Russian winters are very cold, making warm clothes and ample calorie intake mandatory to sustain life and strong immunity against disease.

Under Putin’s brave new reign of neo-imperialism, infectious disease rates and other causes of premature mortality have shot upward. Spending on health care is being slashed, and Russians are retreating to cheap spirits in an attempt to escape a tragic reality.

Want to Help Russian Peasant Girls Escape from Putin's Hell of Slavery? Contact: Operation Rescue forRussian Girls!

Want to Help Russian Peasant Girls Escape from Putin’s Hell of Slavery?
Contact: Operation Rescue for Russian Girls, Today!

Russian girls and women deserve better. In a land where too many men are drunken brutes, criminals, and diseased addicts, better escape routes are needed. Please volunteer to help, today.

In 10-15 years, Russia will face a shortage of teachers aged 35-40 – the most productive age. At the same time, most teachers who began their careers during the Soviet period will reach retirement age, and it will be impossible to replace them. __ Moscow Times

Posted in Russia, Russian Decline, Russian Womb Drain | Tagged | 1 Comment

Hillary Clinton: Dementia by Any Other Name

Hill Slips Away 2014

Hill Slips Away

Evidence is mounting that Democratic Party nominee for US President, Hillary Clinton, is afflicted with some form of dementia (among other ailments). Ms. Clinton suffered a serious head injury a number of years ago. Since then a number of reports have slipped through the media screens suggesting that the woman has serious lapses in concentration and memory.

From Former Clinton Aide Huma Abedin

According to former aides, Clinton has trouble remembering names, experienced frequent confusion, and sleeps at unusual times when she should be working.

Hillary Clinton needed hand-holding with her daily schedule and was ‘often confused’ while she was secretary of state, her former top aide and ‘body woman’ Huma Adebin wrote a colleague in a January 2013 email.

__ Source

“Huma Abedin’s description of Hillary Clinton as ‘easily confused’ [sic] tells you all you need to know why it took a federal lawsuit to get these government emails from Clinton’s illegal email server,” Judicial Watch president Tom Fitton said in a statement.

“These emails also show that Hillary Clinton’s and Huma Abedin’s decision to use the Clinton email server to conduct government business was dangerous and risky.” ___ The Hill

Clinton Fell and Suffered Severe Concussion in December 2012

Bill Clinton says it took Hillary 6 months to recover from the injury. But it is looking more and more like she never recovered — and probably never will.

Here is more from freelance journalist Samuel Rosales-Avila who interviewed Clinton in 2014:

I started asking Ms. Clinton questions. Mostly policy stuff, really focused on immigration. She was responding, but seemed a little off. I figured she was just distracted and didn’t feel like it was worth her time.

I kept going, but was starting to get frustrated. I decided I would ask her something I hadn’t really planned on. I said, ‘Ms. Clinton, some have suggested that you aren’t healthy enough or are too old to pursue the presidency. Do you have a comment on that?’

I knew I had crossed a line for her right away. She snapped back, ‘It’s my turn. I’ve done my time, and I deserve it.’ Then she stormed off.

After she left, one of her handlers came up to me and told me he would need the recording of our interview and that it was now ‘off the record’. I was shocked and disappointed, but it was clear that it wasn’t a negotiation.

When you consider her history of fainting spells, likely the result of strokes and the verbal gaffes she’s made recently, you have to wonder if she isn’t losing her mental faculties.

Let’s face it, she’s not a rank amateur when it comes to politics. She’s always demonstrated a talent for verbal manipulation and deception. But suddenly it’s as if her mask has slipped exposing her ugly, arrogant sense of entitlement.

__ Source

Demented? Brain damaged? Delusional, certainly.

Worse Than Weird Source

Worse Than Weird

Hillary’s confused strangeness is being called a “strategy” by political insiders, but it is looking less and less like an intentional strategy, and more and more like an involuntary reflex. Traumatic brain injuries can often leave lifelong disabilities.

Bill Clinton Has Never Looked So Happy

Former president Bill Clinton appears to want Hillary Clinton entrenched in the presidency, despite her apparent brain disability. Persons who would like to control and manipulate a weakened president would have no better opportunity than with a brain-damaged Hillary. Perhaps that explains Bill Clinton’s total re-writing of the history of his marriage in his national party convention speech last week, or Barack Obama’s mocking smile when he and Hillary are pictured together. Both men understand that here is a president who can be manipulated until hell freezes over — or until she keels over and all pretence of her remaining alive is dispelled.

The US has elected some extremely poor presidents over the past 25 years, but Ms. Clinton might be the first one to be brain-dead before being inaugurated.

She is the choice of American media and celebrity hacks around the world. And she certainly enjoys the support of the same national voting fraud machine that managed to give Obama a second term. But once it becomes more obvious how far her mind has declined, will that be enough?

The Next President of the United States?

(Which one?)

The following medical record needs to be verified and supplemented by prior and subsequent records and test reports:

Good luck getting access before the election, even under the FOIA.
(h/t commenter jdam)
Update: More information on leaked medical records, apparently purportedly released by “Anonymous”. The validity of these records remains to be proven, and there are legitimate reasons to be sceptical of their source.

More thorough discussion of Hillary’s history of serious health problems

More: The plot thickens

Even more on Hillary’s carefully stage-managed state of “health” via JCCarlton

Hillary is progressively becoming a walking corpse. If she manages to win the election, it is not certain that she will be able to serve even one full term. During the time she is in office, the government of the US will be controlled by a slightly different variation of the same elitist cabal that is currently destroying the future of the people of the US and the world. Even if replaced while in office, any changes in policy would only be cosmetic in nature. The problem goes far deeper than the collusion of the media, the widespread election fraud, dysfunctional and easily-manipulated lock-step voting minorities, and all of the other surface reasons why Obama was re-elected and why Clinton leads in the polls.


Secret Service Whistleblower: Hillary Has Major Neurological Problems

Judging by these latest sources, the skankstream has been largely successful in blocking large-scale news coverage of Hillary’s neurological problems. Clinton’s backers are fighting a race against time now. More people are focusing their lenses on Hillary’s mental and physical status. More emails and other damaging documents are likely to be leaked. The Clinton campaign is attempting to stuff damaged goods down the throats of the US electorate. Is the US sufficiently dumbed down, and is the US voting system sufficiently corrupted?

The freeloaders and rent seekers are all in for Hillary. Among the productive classes, discontent is likely to grow rapidly if it becomes known how badly the election system has been manipulated by media, political operatives, bureaucrats, billionaire backers, and the intimidation machine.

Posted in Human Brain, Politics | Tagged , | 5 Comments

US Shale Kicks Putin, OPEC, in Teeth

If U.S. shale can withstand domestic political pressure against hydraulic fracking, and regulatory incentives promoting a shift to renewable energies, it stands to disrupt OPEC’s global oil cartel and Russia’s strong influence in Europe, and establish the United States as the new global energy superpower.


Putin — and OPEC — hate North American shale. Most of the world’s oil remains untouched in tight source rock deposits. That massive bounty of oil was destined to remain deep inside the crust, until North American shale producers took old technology and started to innovate. All of these incremental innovations put together are amounting to a geopolitical economic revolution that is shaking the petrostates to their foundations.

Russia, the largest oil exporter outside Opec, which saw its economy shrink by 3.7 per cent last year, has acknowledged it can no longer depend solely on its oil and gas resources.

Moscow Economic Report: Continued economic decline as far as the eye can see

… Wealthy Gulf states such as the UAE and Oman have taken steps to cut subsidies, especially on fuel, which were previously taken for granted. Saudi Arabia has gone further, launching its ambitious ‘Project 2030’ plan it hopes will end its reliance on oil revenues.

… In Venezuela and Nigeria, reforms are even more pressing. Already riven with corruption and poverty when prices averaged $100 a barrel, both must begin the process of overhauling their economies now their hand has been forced. __

The corruption of $100 bbl oil prices touched all the petrostates, and drove their leaders more than a bit insane with grandiose dreams. But then North American shale came along and things have not been the same for the petro-warmongers, sponsors of terror, and all around corrupt fools.

Venezuela is a preview of near-future Russia

A Revolution by Any Other Name

Whatever you think you know about shale oil, is wrong:

Myth: Decline rate over first 4 months is 90%. WRONG! The decline rate over the first 4 months of production has been cut to 18% and is still being improved.

Myth: Breakeven cost per barrel for shale oil is $70. WRONG! In much of the huge Permian deposit of west Texas the breakeven cost has been cut to $2 a barrel!

Myth: Shale oil production has already peaked and will never again see the high levels of production that took place in 2014. WRONG! Production of US shale oil has slowed temporarily due to low prices and price volatility. The oil is still there — waiting for oil prices to rise — and the economics of production just keep getting more favourable.

Myth: US shale cannot compete with OPEC superfields such as Ghawar. WRONG! US shale companies have achieved breakeven rates equal to or better than most OPEC fields.

An oil drilling company operating in the Permian Basin shale formation can extract crude for as little as $2 a barrel, meaning it can compete with Saudi Arabia in terms of production costs.


Putin and OPEC Need Oil Prices Over $100 BBL to Support Imperialism and Global Terror

Russia has cut its domestic spending to the bone, and its people are suffering. Most Russian infrastructure dates to Soviet days, and is suffering accelerated aging and deterioration. Putin’s military adventures and massive spending on propaganda/espionage are pushing Russian fiscal managers to their wits’ end. Drat that North American shale!!!

Putin and OPEC were counting on shale producers crumbling under the pressure of lower oil prices. But surprise! Capitalist enterprises are under constant pressure to innovate, and North Americah tight oil producers have taken up the challenge with aplomb.

The crucial mid-tier drillers have weathered the downturn. Many are still able to raise funds at low cost. Total output in the US has fallen by 1.2m barrels a day to 8.5m since the peak in April 2015 but production has been bottoming out. Today’s frackers can just about cope with oil prices in the $40 to $50 range.

Opec may now have to brace for a longer war of attrition than they ever imagined. Global inventories of crude oil remain near all-time highs, record volumes are being stored on tankers off-shore. __

Putin and OPEC are confronted with an economic phenomenon that is entirely alien to them — a North American “can do” attitude that turns challenges into victories. In the lands of corruption of Russia and MENA, the creative destruction of capitalism is drowned under floods of corruption and nepotism, and remains an alien beast to the petro-dictators.

The Cost of Producing Shale Oil & Gas Keeps Dropping

As creative destruction and disruptive innovation proceed apace in the North American shale fields, other parts of the world are beginning to wonder whether their own tight source rock might be frackable. They are wondering if the “shale revolution” might be exportable to Argentina, China, Russia, and all points of the globe.

Corruption stands in the way for China, Russia, and the other hyper-centralised dictatorships. But other countries with more stable rule of law may be able to tap into the global shale boom.

Shale 1.0 is Giving Way to the Shale 2.0 Revolution

Lasting revolutions tend to come in waves. That was true for the computer revolution and it has proven true so far for the “shale revolution.” The first shale revolution — Shale 1.0 — was a result of early innovations in fracking and horizontal drilling. The shaking of the petro-world from Shale 1.0 was only a foreshock of what is taking place under the surface as Shale 2.0 begins to take hold. Because, you see, Shale 2.0 is data driven. This means that Shale 2.0 enjoys a synergetic relationship with the computer revolution — just as the parallel revolutions in biotech, robotics, materials science, nanoscience, synthetic/systems biology, and other disruptive new fields enjoy. This is a development that the “old-school” energy analysts have still not stumbled upon.

The shale industry is unlike any other conventional hydrocarbon or alternative energy sector, in that it shares a growth trajectory far more similar to that of Silicon Valley’s tech firms. In less than a decade, U.S. shale oil revenues have soared, from nearly zero to more than $70 billion annually (even after accounting for the recent price plunge). Such growth is 600 percent greater than that experienced by America’s heavily subsidized solar industry over the same period.

Shale’s spectacular rise is also generating massive quantities of data: the $600 billion in U.S. shale infrastructure investments and the nearly 2,000 million well-feet drilled have produced hundreds of petabytes of relevant data. This vast, diverse shale data domain—comparable in scale with the global digital health care data domain—remains largely untapped and is ripe to be mined by emerging big-data analytics. ____ Shale 2.0

More on Shale 2.0 (24 pp PDF)

For Decades, Big Oil and Petrostates Controlled World Energy

Now, things are spinning out of control for OPEC, big oil, Russia — all the corrupt and violence-promoting petrostates and cartels. Capitalism in flyover country is knocking dictators, kings, fat cat oil executives, and investment bankers off their pedestals.

This is only possible due to property rights, rule of law, and economic freedoms to employ innovative technologies of all kinds. This combination of opportunity only exists in a very few parts of the world. For all their faults, the Anglosphere and Europe are the best incubators for the disruptive innovations that will open the door to an abundant and expansive future that the world is likely to see.

Europe and the Anglosphere are Certain to Fall

But will they fall before they spawn the singular emergence into an abundant and expansive future — the next level — or will they drown under a flood of dysgenic immigration, ideological Idiocracy, and a corrupt authoritarianism bleeding out from Russia and China at accelerating rates?

Those westerners who slavishly root for Putin, for China, for radical Islam, and for all the forces of the anti-future, are merely doltish pawns in a game they can never comprehend.

The “Shale Revolution” is Just a Small Part of Disruptive Change

More intelligent humans can watch quietly from the sidelines as corrupt leaders such as Obama, Clinton, Putin, Xi, Hollande, take control of new and potentially disruptive innovations (and enable their “shadow backers” to take control). Or they can seize opportunities as they arise to create new niches of individual and small-scale power, similar to what happened in the early stages of multiple disruptive revolutions that have occurred in many capitalist countries — including the “shale revolution” in North America.

If you remain in thrall to a puppet-master ideology, you will never understand what you are doing — much less be able to break free and play a role in any possible breakout. Everything you think you know, just ain’t so. Any other belief you may have just leads you deeper into thralldom.

Try to see the world under a clearer sun. Then perhaps you will be able to hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and make yourself ready for a very dangerous future.

More: Oil Prices for Dummies

OIl Prices Source

OIl Prices

Oil prices result from a complex interaction of supply and demand. The price spike seen in the 1970s and early 1980s resulted from the combination of an OPEC engineered supply constriction, with a growth in demand from emerging nations in Asia.

The price spike leading up to 2008 reflected a rising demand in emerging nations springing from a flood of western investment and massive leveraging in global financial markets. The abrupt 2008 deleveraging/deflation caused a temporary price slump, but re-leveraging and reflating of the global bubble soon followed in desperate measure.

High oil prices from 2009 into 2014 were driven by artificial bubble demand in China (and other BRICS) — propagated to commodities export markets from Africa to South America to Oceania to several parts of Asia. Easy money from western central banks and wild-eyed fiscal stimulus in the US similarly helped artificially boost demand up to 2014.

What happened over the summer of 2014 is a matter of some debate, but it is clear that ordinary rules of global oil price control had been set on their heads. Instead of reducing oil production to raise prices, OPEC (and Russia) chose to rev up production far beyond what peak oilers had claimed was possible (after the “peak” of 2005). Why did OPEC and Russia push production and facilitate the ongoing, extended “price slump?”

Because they believed that they could quickly kill the upstart North American shale oil industry, and once again resume their exalted positions as obscenely wealthy & corrupt warmongers and terror-exporters in chief.

Why do Russia and OPEC not cut production now that they understand that it is the only way to raise prices at this time of depressed global oil demand? Because they failed to kill North American Shale, and they are afraid of losing market share to any petrostate that breaks rank with the others.

We have seen how that approach is working out for them.

Only governments can kill Shale 2.0 — or any other disruptive innovation of promise. Obama wishes he had seen it coming so he could have done to shale what he did to coal and Keystone. Between Trump and Hillary, the witch is more likely to try to kill shale through the EPA and other regulatory means.

This means that tight oil production in North America will remain the 20 tonne gorilla in the room that most polite folk abstain from mentioning. But you cannot understand the current regime of oil prices without having a clear understanding of the incremental revolution in source rock oil production.


Long-Term Oil Prices Not as Mysterious as Thought


Art Berman adds another chapter to his schizoid predition portfolio

By using very old data for shale wellhead costs and Permian proven reserves, Berman severely undercuts his case. But oil analysts are often under pressure to publish, whether they have anything supportable to present or not.

Posted in Energy, Oil Prices, Oil Prices Fiscal Breakeven | Tagged , | 5 Comments

Economic Realities in China

This picture taken on December 9, 2012 shows scavengers picking up useful construction waste from a garbage dump in Hefei, central China's Anhui province.  China's wealth gap has widened to a level where it is among the world's most unequal nations, a Chinese academic institute said in a survey, as huge numbers of poor are left behind by the economic boom. CHINA OUT     AFP PHOTO        (Photo credit should read STR/AFP/Getty Images)

This picture taken on December 9, 2012 shows scavengers picking up useful construction waste from a garbage dump in Hefei, central China’s Anhui province. China’s wealth gap has widened to a level where it is among the world’s most unequal nations, a Chinese academic institute said in a survey, as huge numbers of poor are left behind by the economic boom. CHINA OUT AFP PHOTO (Photo credit should read STR/AFP/Getty Images)

Most casual observers of world affairs tend to judge China’s wealth by the flashy skyline photos of new construction. But such images give a false impression of the true state of economic affairs in China.

According to a World Bank survey, in 2012 the per capita consumption in the United States was $30,903, while in China it was only $1,221. The world’s per capita consumption, excluding China, is about $5,400. That makes China’s per capita consumption less than a quarter of the world’s consumption and only 4 percent that of the United States.

The massive building boom that has transformed China’s major cities gives one the false impression that everyone in China is wealthy and that Chinese are rich enough to buy up the United States several times over. But if you go to the countryside, you will see farmers who are not even able to buy a can of soda. __ China in Real Terms

Much of China’s construction boom has been driven by government-instigated credit bubbles, resulting in ghost cities and quickly crumbling edifices. The photograph above of the garbage scavenger is a useful metaphor for entire industries that have grown up to demolish recent Chinese construction to make way for a new cycle of shoddy ghost construction.

Foreign Investment Dropping Off; Highly Leveraged Domestic Investment Rising

Foreign Investment BRIC Source

Foreign Investment BRIC

According to rating agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P), China’s credit quality is “deteriorating more quickly than at any time since 2009,” it states in a recent report. S&P downgraded three companies for every company upgraded in the first half of 2016.

Chinese corporates will “come under increasing strain as economic growth slows, industrial overcapacity crimps profitability and cash flow, and an elevated appetite for expansion weakens leverage.” __ Source

Moody’s has also expressed concern at over-leveraging in China’s shadow banking economy.

The rise in overall leverage and further expansion of shadow banking activity are pushing up financial risks,” [according to] Stephen Schwartz, a Moody’s Senior Vice President.

We estimate the potential understatement to be significant, amounting to at least RMB16 trillion ($3.4 trillion) or 23 per cent of GDP at end-2015, equivalent to around one-third of shadow banking
Michael Taylor, Moody’s Managing Director

… The investment receivables (debts, unsettled transactions) of a sample of 26 listed banks have more than quadrupled since 2012, accounting for more than 8 per cent of their total assets at end-2015.

__ NZHerald

China’s huge economy is being overbuilt on top of an ever-shakier foundation.

When neutral observers look at China’s economy in detail, they grow sceptical of China’s official growth estimates. Instead of 7% growth, most honest analysts put the figure closer to 4% or below. The Coca-Cola index suggests that China’s economy is not actually growing at the grassroots level, with a market drop of around 2%.

We are not saying that China’s economy is in the same dire situation as Russia’s, Brasil’s, or Venezuela’s. China will be an industrial, technological, and scientific powerhouse for decades to come — although perhaps not to the extent that more bullish analysts had predicted.

It is simply the case that China’s leaders want the nation to be bigger, better, and more powerful than it actually is. And so they censor the bad news and tweak the rest to project a better image than is reflected by reality.

If China’s people are choking on toxic air, water, food, and beverage, that is not of concern to the ruling class. If China’s military-linked transplant centres are slaughtering tens of thousands of political dissidents a year for their cash-crop organs, why should the country’s elite care? If the ongoing destruction of Chinese rivers and China’s land is forcing the dragon to look northward to Siberia for vital resources, China’s leaders can deal with pesky Russian concerns. If military expansion into the territories of China’s neighbors to the south and east risks triggering an international conflict, Beijing believes that it can deal with the fallout when the time comes.

Like the other BRICS, China’s image-for-international-consumption contains a significant amount of “Potemkin Farce.” But only two of the BRICS — China and Russia — are pushing the farce to the point of risking global war.

Nations that pretend to be something they are not, and use nuclear weapons to enforce the delusion, put the entire world at risk.


New Fortune 500 list reflects China’s ongoing economic dysfunction

Posted in China, Economics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

To Make Russia Better One Must First See it As it Really Is

41% of Russians say they do not have enough money to buy food and clothing, only 50% of water is potable and large parts of the food chain are tainted — and there is no accountability to be found anywhere.

Russian Education Source

Russian Education

The portrayal of education in Russia that one reads in university brochures or propaganda websites can be impressive. The reality is something else again. As in Russian society at large, Russian higher education is rotten through and through.

… between 20 percent and 30 percent of all dissertations that have been completed at Russian universities since the fall of the Soviet Union were purchased on the black market.

… “A lot of people are ‘exposed’ in Russia,” [liberal journalist and Dissernet member Serguei] Parkhomenko said. “The Russian public says, ‘So what? So he stole. Everyone steals. In the end, why would someone be a boss, if he is not stealing?’ So reputation means nothing. The threat—we will ruin your reputation, we will tell everyone you stole—does not produce any effect.” __

The article linked above describes a brave group of Russian activists, Dissernet, who are trying to “bring Russia into the light” by restoring trust and reputation to a badly tarnished brand. It is a steep uphill effort, a thankless task that sometimes brings unwanted attention from an inner circle that does not want to make Russia better, but merely wants to suck its blood.

… as Russia seeks to build its reputation as an academic and research powerhouse, it must first get a handle on its problem with academic fraud. Not only is it doing a great disservice to the brilliant minds doing legitimate research in the country, but it’s making life much more difficult for Russian scientists and journals to have their work become impactful internationally.

… 40% of all of the fake dissertations were in the field of economics, though pedagogics, law, medical sciences, political sciences, engineering, and social sciences all also had high levels of fake dissertations. Natural sciences, however, had a very low percentage. ___ ithenticate

The Russian people understand that their government and their leaders are corrupt, that they are being lied to at every turn, that to get ahead in Russia Today one must cheat and steal. That is all they have known their entire lives — cheats, thieves, liars. People who will never be called to account because the people above them are the same way.

I am Russian. And when I used to live in Russia, it was widely understood that no one in any position of power got there through merit. This was not—and still isn’t—a secret, nor is it something that people are the least bit ashamed of. People you just met speak bluntly about bribing their way into MSU, the country’s most prestigious university, or of getting a cushy gig as a lawyer because they had the right connections.

___ Diana Bruk

Every university in Russia has departments where fake dissertations can be defended, where faux degrees can be bought. Putin himself took advantage of this process to get a PhD in economics. Perhaps that is why he must turn to his political opponents — liberals such as Kudrin — to save Russia’s economy from his own bad decisions and from his kleptocratic inner circle.

… the connection between plagiarism and overall corruption in society can be clearly made, and increasingly, it is the wealthy and well-connected who benefit while the middle class and poor feel as if they are left behind.

… ___ TriplePundit

The corruption within Russia’s system of education reverberates throughout all of Russian society. One is merely a microcosm of the other — although it feeds Russia’s future leaders into the larger system.

Why is it so hard to reform the corrupt system of education? Because you cannot separate the parts from the whole, when dishonest and criminal mindsets, elites, and component systems tie the whole thing together.

Four Reasons Why Russia Will Find it Difficult to Halt its Decline

First, for a society to modernize, both its elite and its people should acknowledge its backwardness and understand that they must turn their backs on the past and embrace the future. In today’s Russia, quite the opposite might be seen: Both the government and the governed praise the Soviet experience and the glory of the past, insisting that the country “rise up from its knees,” thereby taking failure for success and rejecting any need for change (i.e. putting an end to decline).

Second, the Russian elite actually owns the country, but formally cannot turn it into its property; therefore, its major aim is to plunder the national wealth rather than to increase it. In such a kleptocratic society any attempt to build something new seems counterproductive; for example, the modern highway between Moscow and Saint Petersburg is still under construction after twenty years of efforts, with no new railways built since the Soviet collapse.

Third, the political class understands quite well that industrial modernization can create a new middle class not dependent on oil revenues and state-managed wealth redistribution, which would therefore be more sensitive to democracy and the rule of law. The instinct for self-preservation would not allow this, but rather tells Kremlin insiders that they should prefer the old commodity economy to a new industrial one to maintain their grip on society forever.

Fourth, and the final point I would like to make, is that any modernizing country used to have a counterpart, or ally, which supplied it with technology and capital and absorbed much of the industrial goods it produced (the United States and Japan played such a role for many Southeast Asian nations). Russia today has voluntarily cut its ties with Europe and the US and allied itself with China, by itself an industrial powerhouse, which is by no means interested in a modern, industrialized Russia—preferring to treat it only as a kind of commodity supplier. ___ Vladislav Inozemtsev

More Russian analysis on Russian Decline

we can get away with cheating ever so easily during exams. You may ask how. Many students here aren't bothered about being honest for themselves. Many just merely do the bare minimum of studying and copied their friend's answers or directly from the books during the exams. These students fail to realise that they are only cheating themselves. The one who helps with the cheating is also going to lose out in the end once he/she is out of medic school and into the work world. Another method which works really well for the girls is simply to shed some crocodile tears during exams and instantly the lecturer would grant her a mere pass. Source

we can get away with cheating ever so easily during exams. You may ask how. Many students here aren’t bothered about being honest for themselves. Many just merely do the bare minimum of studying and copied their friend’s answers or directly from the books during the exams. These students fail to realise that they are only cheating themselves. The one who helps with the cheating is also going to lose out in the end once he/she is out of medic school and into the work world. Another method which works really well for the girls is simply to shed some crocodile tears during exams and instantly the lecturer would grant her a mere pass.

People who paint over the deep and fatal faults within Putin’s Russia are doing no favours to Russia or her people. They are helping to make a bad situation worse — insolubly worse.

Special Appeal!

Russian girls need to be saved from this culture of corruption, deception, and larceny. The best short-term way of achieving this will involve the wholesale immigration of these impressionable young girls into western societies, particularly Europe and the Anglosphere. Once removed from the atmosphere of decay, they will be more empowered to achieve happiness and fulfillment as wives and mothers, as should be the case. Please do your part to achieve this end, today.


Russia is overdependent on energy and natural resource exports:

Half of the Russian GDP and 70% of revenues come from exports of oil and natural gas. The price of oil is the single most important factor for Russia’s economy, as is any potential loss of markets to competition. And oil revenues are needed to fund expensive foreign adventurism, whether in the Ukraine or Syria.
__ Russia’s Deadly Dependency on Energy Exports

Putin was caught flat-footed in the middle of an Eastern European putsch by the abrupt drop in global oil & gas prices in 2014. Since then, state monetary reserves have been in decline, the rouble has struggled, good food is becoming scarce and expensive, infrastructure is crumbling even faster than before, and the Kremlin bribery and propaganda machines have been in overdrive.

Putin is lucky that a weak Obama is US president, with two consecutive weasels as secretaries of state. The outcome of the coming US election is far from certain, but Putin is hoping for another weak and pliable US president to step into the Oval Office. His very survival may depend upon it. Hillary is certainly bought and paid for.


Worst Enemy of Russia’s Economy? Putin

Obscure underpinnnings of Russia’s last hurrah. Demography is destiny.

Putin’s greatest achievement:

Putin appeals to Russians’ sense of historical loss and former glory, openly praising irredentism and militarization. Victory Day celebrations commemorating the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany now surpass the bombast of the Soviet period; and state propaganda constantly fuels anti-Western sentiment with claims that parts of “historical Russia” were illegally seized – hence the need to “reclaim” Crimea by force in March 2014.

In fact, Russia’s propaganda machine is its most profound proto-fascist achievement. Putin can surround ordinary Russians with the uninterrupted message that theirs is a modern economy on par with leading global powers. And each year, populist rhetoric about a “national renaissance” and a “showdown with the enemies” grows stronger. __ Propaganda Juggernaut

The snowballing decline of Russia opens the way for China to step in and assert control. Xi to Putin: “Thanks, sucker!”


Corruption at the Cosmodrome: This sad story is illustrative of problems Russia is having with all aspect of its industry and technology.

Posted in Russian Decline | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Why American Blacks Seem so Angry and Miserable

Unhappy Habits of Many Black People
Baltimore is one of very few cities that burned despite substantial black representation in the city government and police force. And that bodes ill for the belief that harmony can be achieved by elevating a few blacks to positions of power …

  1. Seeing Themselves as Victims: Unhappy persons see their lives as out of their own control. Being helpless victims absolves them from all responsibility for their lives.
  2. Chronic Pessimism: A pessimistic outlook usually becomes self-fulfilling. It is a cultural virus endemic within populations that see themselves as “disadvantaged.”
  3. Constant Complaining: Incessant whining and complaining perpetuates a negative outlook and makes it very difficult to think clearly. It is the casting of a negative spell upon oneself and everyone within reach of his complaining.
  4. Exaggerating all negatives, no matter how small: Blowing everything out of proportion to the point of loss of control is the hallmark of a self-made loser and self-made loser populations.
  5. Waiting for circumstances to change on their own — or for someone else to change them for you: This is one of the most common unhappy habits of black people. Example: “Black people cannot really be happy until a black man is president of the US.” And how did that work out?
  6. Ignoring small problems so long that they become much more difficult to solve: Most problems are easier to solve in their early stages if they are faced directly and dealt with. Self-made losers tend to ignore small problems until they become large.
  7. Failure to set positive goals: It is crucial to have a positive plan of action and to work habitually to achieve the short, intermediate, and long-term goals in executing the plan.
  8. Envy of what others have or can do: While it is true that black people of African origins — on average — have lower IQs, less ability to control emotional impulses, and have trouble reaching most higher level occupations, they have many more opportunities to build a fulfilling life in most western nations than in poor old corrupt Africa. Self-made losers wallow in hostile envy of what others have, neglecting all the things they could be.
  9. Excessive focus on material things: In many black neighborhoods, the act of killing someone for his shoes, his watch, his cell phone, or other insignificant item, is commonplace.
  10. Getting stuck in a rut: Failing to examine one’s full range of options in life is another mark of a self-made loser. Living in an insular ghetto one’s entire life is just one part of the self-limited mindset, but an important one.
  11. A failure to pursue excellence inside themselves: The pursuit of mastery is one of the best ways to rise above unhappy circumstances. Such pursuit is too seldom chosen by self-made losers, due to being mired in superficial and mundane aspects of reality. Michael Jordan is a good example of someone who chose the pursuit of mastery.
  12. Excessive focus on pleasure: An excess pursuit of pleasure to the exclusion of all productive activity is one of the hallmarks of self-made losers.
  13. Choosing the wrong role models: Admiring professional leeches such as Al Sharpton, Barack Obama, Louis Farrakhan — and elevating violent criminals as heroes — limits the members of any community that makes such choices.
  14. Consciously refusing to develop productive habits: By attacking any black person who studies hard, develops good habits of achievement, and pursues intellectual mastery — black communities make sure that most of their members are stuck in habitual underachievement.
  15. Taking the easy road: By refusing to take the responsibility to overcome the inevitable pain and difficulty that every human being must face, too many black people limit their lifetime possibilities until it is too late

Habits of Unhappy People Work the Same for Persons of All Races

Of course, these are habits of unhappy people regardless of race or religion. But it is useful to observe how such habits of unhappy people have caused black people hold themselves to levels well below what they might have achieved had the community chosen more positive habits and mindsets.

Whether blacks in North America, Muslims in Europe, or unhappy people of angry and violent grievance anywhere, larger societies are faced with the conundrum of how to embed productive habits of achievement, mastery, fulfillment, and happiness in future generations of all the people within their domain. This cannot be achieved by paying ransoms, instituting reverse discrimination and preferences, or by mollycoddling sub-cultures, families, and individuals that consciously choose bad habits out of a sense of entitlement.

Black immigrants earn and achieve more than US born blacks. But US born blacks live immensely richer lives on average than blacks in Africa or in majority-black countries elsewhere. The oportunities for those who choose habits of success and mastery are there, whatever their race. Too few make the right choices.


Travis Bradberry: 10 Habits of Unhappy People

Resilience by Eric Greitens

Posted in Blacks and crime, Demographics, Dysgenics, Optimism, Racial Myths | Tagged | 5 Comments

Making Strong Russian Bones

It is not always clear why the children growing up in particular countries seem to be especially at risk of chronic ailments and developmental disorders. But one likely explanation is an immersion in a toxic milieu that encompasses water, soil, air — and food. If the food itself is poisoned — if even the milk that children drink is poisoned — how can the children grow up strong and clear-headed?

Young mammals drink mothers’ milk for calcium and other vital nutrients. Cow’s milk is often used to supplement the diets of children, to help them grow strong bones. But what if the milk is tainted? What of the bones grown from milk and other foods that are tainted?

Watchdogs say dairy producers routinely added starch, chalk and soap to their milk. One-fifth of caviar brands contained bacteria linked to E. coli. Bread bakers were discovered to use “fifth-grade” wheat, the sort usually intended for cattle. More than half the sliced salmon on shop shelves has been judged unsafe.

And those are only the most recent revelations.

Quality control in Russia’s food sector appears to have broken down. Products are plentiful. But behind the glossy labels, their true contents are a lottery.

… A mere seven of 33 brands of sausage tested by Roscontrol in March met quality standards. The others contained potato flour, soy, unidentified additives and skin. In another test, two out of ten mineral water brands used recycled water; another two exceeded permitted levels of radioactivity. Among the offenders were major, nationwide brands and foreign companies. __ Moscow Times

The food chain in Russia is beginning to resemble what has been long found to be true in China: There are no real protections at any level.

Food Safety in china

Quality control specialist AsiaInspection said 48% of the “several thousand” inspections, audits and tests it conducted in China last year failed to meet the requirements stipulated by some of its clients — Western food trading companies and retailers.

“There are horror stories, obviously,” Mathieu Labasse, AsiaInspection’s vice president told CNN by phone. “We find factories that just have no basic idea about hygiene standards. People that handle the food, they have no gloves, nothing.”

Labasse said there was a host of reasons for the failings. In some cases, laboratory tests found abnormal levels of pesticides, antibiotics, heavy metals, bacteria or viruses that could put consumers at risk. __ CNN
We are told by left-wing hacks that capitalists will commit any crime for money. But in communist countries such as China, and in countries with a strong left-over taint from communist dysfunction — such as Russia — crimes against the people appear to be even more blatant than elsewhere.

— unscrupulous meat traders had been peddling tons of beef, pork and chicken wings that in some cases had been frozen for 40 years.

The Chinese news media announced that the authorities had seized nearly half a billion dollars’ worth of smuggled frozen meat this month across China, some of it dating to the 1970s. The caches of beef, pork and chicken wings, worth up to 3 billion renminbi, or $483 million, were discovered in a nationwide crackdown that spanned 14 provinces and regions, the state news agency Xinhua reported. __ NYT

A long story

Russia and China are Famous for Their Unhealthy Children

Unhealthy children grow up to form unhealthy societies. Children who are born and raised in a dense atmosphere of ubiquitous toxins will become a burden on their societies for the long term.

… only 30 percent of Russian babies born are born healthy. …many unhealthy Russian babies are “discarded” —sent to government institutions where they often develop cognitive difficulties. Unhealthy children grow up to be unhealthy adults: half of the conscripted Russian army has to be put in limited service because of poor health.

… 50 percent of Russia’s water is not potable. Air pollution continues to be an extremely serious issue, suggesting that a solution proposed during the late-Soviet period continues to hold sway. Back then, a Russian health minister advised the country to “breathe less” in order to live longer.
__ Vanity Fair

The problem is even worse in China, where lebensraum is more limited, and the people are even more cowed by authority than those inside Russia.

At least 1 million babies are born with defects in China each year, an incidence rate of 60 out of every 1,000.

“The rate is three times that of developed countries,” Professor Li Zhu, director with the National Center for Maternity and Infant Health said… __ A Growing Problem

More on “the Poisoned Countries”

Wealthy elites can always tap into better regulated flows of foods and beverages. They can afford better medicines and health care. But the people who will make up future generations of workers and soldiers cannot avoid soaking in the toxic floods — which make the wealthy richer, and the working classes sicker.

Russia’s Difficult Position at its Heart

Russia’s economy is weak, demographics lousy, relationships with all but the worst state actors poor and its military fragile. Putin’s attempts to intimidate his neighbors when they seek to move closer to the West and coerce the U.S. and Europe into granting Russia a zone of control are not a reflection of strength but a clear admission of weakness. As a number of eminent scholars have written, the Kremlin regime is a kleptocracy.


China is just a bit better off than Russia, probably due to a lower level of alcohol consumption.

Male lifespan in Russia is 15 years shorter than in developed countries and nine years shorter than in China, although male lifespan in China was shorter than in Russia a short time ago, she said. __ Behind the Headlines

Saving Russian Bones

It is estimated that the ethnic Russian population will be slashed by between 20% and 50% near mid-century, due to natural demographic decline — high mortality, low fertility. Muslim newcomers will make up part of the deficit, but not all. And what good is it to ethnic Russians if “Russia” survives without them?

A Radical Hope

But radical new life extension therapies may come to the rescue before the total extinction of the ethnic Russians who still remain inside Russia:

Telomerase, an enzyme naturally found in the human organism, is the closest of all known substances to a “cellular elixir of youth.” In a recent study, Brazilian and US researchers show that sex hormones can stimulate production of this enzyme. __

We know from the Russian doping scandal that Russians are not afraid of chemical boosting agents. It is certainly the case that Russian men — perhaps due to over-drinking — have been losing sperm quality and are at risk of low androgen levels due to top-down oppression from government and criminal gangs. Frequent binge drinking of vodka and moonshine probably does not help.

Russian men should turn to sports, healthy food, and androgens instead of retreating to a drunken stupour at every opportunity. Their bones would grow stronger, their women more admiring, and if the international sports groups can’t deal with that, then who needs them?


Unholy Alliance — the Putin – Hillary Connection

Hillary is totally corrupt. There is no higher principle in her quickly deteriorating mind than her own power, comfort, security, and wealth. Putin would find her useful as the US head of state.

Posted in China, Poison, Russia | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Bypassing the Overlords: Building a New World Without Asking Permission

A Neocameral Future from The Anti-Puritan

Axel McKibben has begun work on a series of articles describing how a brighter, braver, and more honest sort of thinker and actor might set about creating a better world — without arguing with or asking the permission of the current crop of overlords. He begins by describing the currents that drive the evolution of human societies, goes on to start to form the outlines of how practitioners of the dark enlightenment arts can set about constructing a world more to their liking — right on top of the world that exists now.

First, a brief perspective on how we reached the current crisis point:

Humans evolved for hundreds of thousands of years under conditions of primitive tribal communism. It is only in the last several thousand that the first feudal societies with written communication systems emerged, and only in less than the last three hundred that industrial, and later, financial capitalism came about. Evolutionary Legacy Hypothesis, or (ELH) is simply the hypothesis that genetics has not kept pace with technological change. Simply put, the hypothesis is that humans are a biological system running a seven thousand year old software program in the twenty-first century, and failing to adapt. It is humans that are the problem—not the system.

Our genes are outdated for our new environment and all modern social problems emerge as a consequence of this continual maladaptation caused by legacy. The gap caused by this situation we will call the rift between human nature and the modern world. This feels upside down to you because you are human, you are running the legacy code, and so you see the world from inside out instead of outside in. When you resent it, you place up in the condition of down, wrong in the position of right. It is the system that is superior to you, not you which are superior to it.

If a culture persists long enough it will modify the genes of the people inhabiting it. The million year economic depression that was tribal communist has genetically programmed us to favor those conditions.

Put another way; humans evolved for one environment and live in another. __ Neocameral Future Chap. 1

Axel then spends the bulk of Chapter 1 describing how many of the aspects of our current tumultous societies came to be the way they are — well worth reading. Toward the end of the chapter he begins to discuss his intriguing ideas on how societies and societal evolution are controlled.

Control is about incentives, not ideology. Arguing with the latter is a waste of time.

  1. Material conditions form incentives.
  2. Incentives drive politics.
  3. Politics is rationalized by people.
  4. Rationalizations solidify into ideology.
  5. Ideology is internalized as morals.

… It is a five-phase process that shapes the cultural and political evolution of humanity. The ideology and incentives of the previous system choose the types of new technologies that are developed. Once chosen, the newly developed technologies determines new incentives. The new incentives create new ideologies through their need for justification. The process is circular, continual, and iterative, with each new form creating the next like the slow accretion of tree rings.

Attempts by men like Stefan Molyneux, SEK3, and Curt Doolittle are or were always destined to fail. They waste their time focusing too much on moral justifications and ideology. Power comes through strategy and technology, not morals and reason. They are focusing on (4) and (5) when they should be focusing on (1) thru (3) of the Five-Phase Process. Human thought may instinctively work on ideological and moral terms, but the physical universe runs on physics, calculus, economics, and natural selection, and the human ant colony, that is the average human city, operates on the basis of the Five-Phase Process. __ Neocameral Future Chap. 1

Axel is not arguing or debating. He declares at the beginning that he will not defend his ideas, because doing so would only waste his time. There is much truth and wisdom in the act of moving boldly ahead and saying what must be said, without pausing, revising, backtracking, and apologising for stepping on someone’s toes. Here is an example of Axel’s refreshingly unapologetic approach to human sensitivities:

You don’t matter. Feelings don’t matter. There is no great truth outside of yourself to validate your beliefs. There are no symbols in the universe. There is no morality outside the human brain. There is no transcendental purpose out there. Everything like this is the adult version of childish thinking. Young children believe that wishes can come true—that desire can be willed into existence with a scrunched up face. Adults believe that abstract notions can be believed—the very essence of the concept of belief being a kind of will to change reality, as if reality could be changed by will alone and not the hands of action. As if believing in equality or God would make it real. Childish thinking.

… Wishful thinking destroys your power of action.

… This work—is based on what works, what doesn’t, and why. It does not work forward from axioms to conclusions in Kantian style, but backwards from observations to deduce natural principles. It answers the question; why, that is, what is going on here? It disregards moral reasoning as superfluous. It regards everything and everyone as pattern. It is absolutely materialistic in explanation. It is not so much morally relativistic as morally indifferent. It treats moral formation itself as a mechanical process caused by material forces.

__ Preface to Neocameral Future

This approach goes beyond the truism that incentives drive human action, and delves into how incentives are created in the tumbling vitamix of human populations. The author appears to be working toward writing a manifesto for neoreactionary non-violent revolution — one that is attempting to adhere to hard principles of reality and causation at multiple levels of logic and real-world resolution.

As Axel notes above, arguing about ideologies is the best way to be sure that you are always several steps behind those who influence how the strings are pulled. You only waste your time and energy. But that is not to say that nihilism or adopting a passive stance are the only sensible responses to manufactured reality and mass delusions.

Mass action is one of many tools for change. If you do your job right, mass action will take care of itself. Convincing the masses in a democracy that becoming helpless dependents of the state may not be in their best ultimate interests is a futile undertaking, and can only be a weak holding action at this stage. Something considerably deeper will be necessary.

The modern trend is toward dysgenic idiocracy and mass delusion. But beneath that strong surface flow is a dynamic world of disruptive innovation and creative destruction. Societies well-leavened with competent, resilient, and broadly aware individuals and coalitions might be able to tap into disruptive innovation and creative destruction to help create strong counter-currents of unfolding opportunities beyond the skankstream of the mainstream — in which our overlords would have us be forever confined.

Perhaps the Neocameral Future will help point the way toward workable, self-organising, autopoietic systems that allow a cleaner real-time immersion in higher (and deeper) levels of interaction with the ongoing creative disruption of our worlds. Almost no one truly wishes to be a serf or a slave if viable alternatives for satisfying and creative engagement exist.

Posted in Dark Enlightenment, Philosophy, Politics | Tagged | Leave a comment

Mexico and Russia in Virtual Dead Heat in IMF GDP Rankings

Russia and Mexico: Not Usually Considered as Geopolitical Equals

Rank Country/Economy GDP Nominal (billions of $)
2016 share 2017 2018
1 United States 18,558.130 25.081 19,285 20,145
2 China 11,383.030 15.384 12,263 13,338
3 Japan 4,412.600 5.963 4,514 4,562
4 Germany 3,467.780 4.687 3,592 3,697
5 United Kingdom 2,760.960 3.731 2,885 2,999
6 France 2,464.790 3.331 2,538 2,609
7 India 2,288.720 3.093 2,488 2,725
8 Italy 1,848.690 2.498 1,902 1,943
9 Brazil 1,534.780 2.074 1,556 1,609
10 Canada 1,462.330 1.976 1,531 1,596
11 Korea 1,321.200 1.786 1,379 1,435
12 Spain 1,242.360 1.679 1,291 1,332
13 Australia 1,200.780 1.623 1,262 1,330
14 Russia 1,132.740 1.531 1,268 1,355
15 Mexico 1,082.430 1.463 1,167 1,228
16 Indonesia 936.955 1.266 1,024 1,110
17 Netherlands 762.521 1.031 794 821
18 Turkey 751.186 1.015 791 834
19 Switzerland 651.770 0.881 665 676
20 Saudi Arabia 618.274 0.836 660 700

Table Source via International Monetary Fund April 2016

Mexico and Russia are both dealing with lower oil prices, and each also has significant problems with corruption and organised crime. But only Russia is diverting diminished hard currency income toward expansion of its military, its espionage and disinformation machines, and its global nuclear threat. Only Russia is threatening the world with nuclear holocaust if it does not get its way. [Well, China, of course, but we are talking about Mexico and Russia here.]

In its GDP projections, the IMF neglected to factor in the growing role of Mexico as a manufacturing centre for North America — more and more frequently at the expense of China — and may have thus underestimated near-term Mexican growth. At the same time, projections for near-term Russian growth may overestimate the rate of rise of oil & gas prices in the near future.

Putin promised 15 years ago to reduce Russia’s overdependence upon oil & gas exports, but this vulnerability is worse now than ever. The decline of Russia’s economy began well before the drop in oil prices in 2014 and Putin’s invasions of Crimea and east Ukraine earlier the same year.

Compare near-term future IMF projections with GDP numbers from the past few years:

Recent GDP Performance Trends for top World Economies

Russia's Economy is Shrinking in $USD Terms

Russia’s Economy is Shrinking in $USD Terms

Russia’s economy is shriveling before our very eyes, and no amount of happy-happy wishful thinking and denial will soothe the growing levels of suffering which the Russian people are experiencing. Rapid Russian infrastructure decay in housing, transportation, health care, education, internal energy pipelines and more, accompany a demographic decline that cannot be kept hidden for much longer — no matter how good Kremlin propagandists may be.

The Bridge Between Russia and China is Only Half-Built

 A perfect symbol of Chinese-Russian cooperation is provided by a half-built bridge between the two countries. As a picture of the site shows, China has finished its half of the bridge, but the Russians have done nothing but create a tent city on the Russian side of the border ( via

A perfect symbol of Chinese-Russian cooperation is provided by a half-built bridge between the two countries. As a picture of the site shows, China has finished its half of the bridge, but the Russians have done nothing but create a tent city on the Russian side of the border (

China is building its half, but Russia cannot afford to match China’s achievement. As Russia’s economic and demographic foundations continue to crumble, the obvious mismatch can only grow more dramatic. Russia’s abilities do not live up to Russia’s pride.

But Then, Not Everything is Coming Up Roses in China

China is being forced to rapidly expand internal debt in a desperate attempt to project an international image of economic stability and growth. This effort appears to be an increasingly futile one.

Actual rate of GDP growth in China may be under 4%, instead of the official 6.7% claimed by Chinese officials. According to the Citi Chief Economist Willem Buiter:

Epoch Times: What’s your estimate of Chinese GDP growth at this moment?

Mr. Buiter: Somewhere below 4 percent. The official figure is still around 7 percent, but those data are made in the statistical kitchen. __

China may not have a choice but to continue inflating the economic balloon until something wicked this way comes something much more dramatic occurs. War or regime change often take such cues to make their entrance.

“Problems facing China’s economy, including a troubled property sector, industrial overcapacity, rising debt levels and the lack of new growth engines, are all connected with each other and piecemeal solutions no longer work. The only way to restore vitality to the economy is to push through reforms.” They aren’t happening.

Instead, central bank officials are calling for fiscal deficits of up to 5 percent to support the economy and they admit traditional monetary stimulus is not working anymore.

“Despite loads of liquidity pumped into the market, enterprises would rather bank the money in current accounts in the absence of good investment options, which is in line with record low private investment data,” Sheng Songcheng, head of statistics and analysis at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said recently. __ Source

China is losing foreign investment, and capital flight is once again taking wings.

In the most recent survey from the American Chamber of Commerce in China, a quarter of respondents said they had either already moved or were planning to move operations out of China, citing rising costs as the top reason. Of those, almost half are moving into other developing countries in Asia, while nearly 40 percent are shifting to the United States, Canada and Mexico. __ NYT

Innovating the Future

If you can find Russia on the above national innovation comparison, congratulations! You have very good microscopic vision.

China occupies a higher ranking than Russia on the innovation scale, but virtually all of China’s “innovation” is of the “sustaining” type. Sustaining innovation is incremental innovation, making pre-existing products more competitive in pre-existing markets.

Disruptive innovations, on the other hand, create entirely new markets — even new economic sectors in some cases. Most disruptive innovation originates in western nations, as has been the case for centuries.

Rather than to supply cutting-edge innovation, China and Russia vie with many other emerging and lower-tier nations to supply Europe and the Anglosphere with energy, raw materials, cut-rate manufactured commodity goods, as well as exporting their best entrepreneurs and providing their brighter young and children of elites to western universities.

China and Russia are Butting Their Heads Against the “Command Economy” Wall

Relevant innovation cannot be dictated from the top-down. It cannot be “managed” by government bureaucrats, planners, policy-makers, or propagandists.

The fact that both China and Russia are running into severe economic obstacles — and the flight of foreign investment as a direct result of government bombast and neo-imperialist militancy — suggests that some unexpected plot twists are likely to be introduced within the next decade. China and Russia both want to control Asia, but only one can be the “last man standing.” Eventually the latent and longstanding-but-hidden conflict will come to a head. The autocratic leaders of both nations are experiencing a growing need to take their nations to war in order to quell internal discord. Who would have thought that the coming war would be with each other?

As for Mexico, Signs of Growth Ahead

Mexico may surpass India by 2020 as the sixth largest vehicle producer globally, according to the Mexican Association of Automotive Industry. The automotive industry accounts for 18% of Mexico’s manufacturing sector and 3% of its national gross domestic product. __

US businesses are increasingly choosing to abandon China as a manufacturing location, and choosing Mexico. Business-oriented political leaders in the US are taking the Mexican economy more seriously, and act accordingly.

Earlier this month, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker spent a week in Mexico. Why Mexico? After all, the border is about 1,500 miles from his home state.

Like 28 other governors, Mr. Walker leads a state in which Mexico is either the number one or two export destination. Last year Wisconsin sent nearly $3 billion in exports south of the border, and in his state alone, 117,000 jobs depend on trade with Mexico.

This is a story repeated across the United States, making Mexico the country’s second-largest export destination, accounting for nearly 16 percent of worldwide sales. Without our Mexico trade, 6 million US jobs would be at risk. __ Source

Waiting For Reforms Before Taking Off? Source

Waiting For Reforms Before Taking Off?

Mexico is corrupt and violent, like Russia. But unlike Russia, Mexico has a chance for real — although incremental — reforms. Mexico desperately needs foreign investment, and for that to happen on a larger scale, Mexico needs to reform.

Mexico still hasn’t overcome its volatile reputation in financial centers like London and New York — and therefore doesn’t yet have the credit to engage in a big pro-growth investment drive. “Markets aren’t completely sold” on the idea of a more stable Mexico, De la Calle said. “Eventually we’ll get there.”

… the path to faster growth lies partly in reforms passed by President Peña Nieto at the start of his term. Fiscal changes have already helped wean Mexico from its dependence on oil, which accounted for 39 percent of total revenues in 2012 but only 20 percent last year. As a result, Mexico has largely escaped aftershocks from the recent crash in crude prices.

Mexico — like almost all Latin American nations — has a weakness for socialist mind-babble. If Mexicans can understand what happened to Venezuela and other socialist Latin American hellholes, perhaps they can choose a more rational path to the future.

For Russia, the people have no choice. It is all about Putin until that train runs out of fuel. Then the ailing bear will be lost in the wilderness, with only the dragon sitting in Asia’s “catbird seat.” If China can reach that position of near-total Asian dominance without armed conflict, it will consider itself a lucky nation.

Drunken Couch Potatoes Do Not a Superpower Make

The Bread is already stale and moldy; Now international backlash against Russian sports corruption robbing Russians of circuses as well

Rotten Russia: How Much Farther Can You Go on Propaganda and Potemkin Bluster?

Posted in China, Economics, innovation, Russian Decline | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Can These Worms Save the Human Race from Extinction?

We Have Not Confronted a Virus that Constitutes an Existential Threat to the Species — Yet

Human Baby w/ Microcephaly Source

Human Baby w/ Microcephaly

But eventually, we are likely to meet an emerging virus that comes close. The Zika virus, for example, is certainly not an existential threat to the human species as it exists now. Still, a threat to healthy human procreation such as the risk of microcephaly, is a potential existential threat to the particular populations at risk, if the link between fetal infection and subsequent microcephaly were to strengthen.

These problems tend to accompany microcephaly in infants and children:

Developmental delay, such as problems with speech or other developmental milestones (like sitting, standing, and walking)
Intellectual disability (decreased ability to learn and function in daily life)
Problems with movement and balance
Feeding problems, such as difficulty swallowing
Hearing loss
Vision problems
__ CDC

You can see some potential problems for the human future, from this tangible — but so far limited — threat.

Zika Domain Source

Zika Domain

Zika came rapidly — almost “out of nowhere.” First identified in Uganda in 1947, Zika dropped under the radar until an outbreak on Yap in 2007. But it is over the past year that Zika has come into its own, and has become an object of global concern with the link to microcephaly and the Rio Olympics approaching.

A lot of other viruses can cause microcephaly and other severe birth defects. Infectious diseases — incuding viruses — can also cause infertility in males and females.

It is not necessary for a virus to kill all humans, or make them all infertile, to bring about human extinction. Lowering the average global human IQ by 40 points would quickly reduce the “carrying capacity” of Earth to a few million or less. And I thought the average human IQ was already dropping at a frightening pace.

Emerging viruses could annhilate not only human populations, but also the ecosystems upon which human life depends. Both animal and vegetable sources of food are vulnerable to viral attack, as are critical microbial supporters of plant and animal food production.

How Can Silkworms Save Humans from the Emerging Viral Onslaughts?

Silkworms Source


Advanced new virus-proof air and water filtration membranes made from silk protein nanofibrils, may help stop the spread of emerging viruses that have not even been discovered yet.

This discovery could portend new production methods and supply chain economics for anyone that uses the new filter membranes, including water treatment facilities, food manufacturers, and life sciences organizations…

… Whether purifying waste water for drinking, or capturing the minuteness of blood clots in the human body, these new silk-based membranes offer significant advanced operational efficiencies. And one piece of silk nanofibrils membrane averages only $0.05-$0.51 compared with $1.20 per piece of commercial filtration membrane.

… the new membrane’s rejection of protein and gold nanoparticles in flow was higher than that of membranes with similar thickness. Protein molecules, colloids, nanoparticles, small molecules, and ions were all used to assess size-selectivity.

… “What really surprised us,” says Jin, “is that one flux was faster than that of most commercial materials, in fact, more than 1,000 times higher in some cases.” The result proved better than fluxes of the most advanced ultrathin membranes.

___ MIT News

The new silk-based filters promise more affordable filtration of viruses and other particles from both air and water, at much lower costs — bringing them within reach of larger numbers of people. The article above mentions using them in “water treatment facilities, food manufacture, life sciences applications” etc.

But why not use them in ultra-thin condoms, gloves, face masks and respirators etc.? One could carry their own filtration drinking straw, for use with all beverages outside the home. As more food is grown indoors under LED lighting, water and air supplies can be more carefully filtered from the outer world.

It all sounds rather extreme — even hysterical — but we cannot judge the world of future emerging viruses based upon the world in which we currently live.

We Have Long Discussed the Idea of “The Fouling of the Commons”

Participants in the 1970 Earth Day celebration were predicting that by the year 2000, people would be dropping in the hundreds of millions from starvation, toxic air and water, and resource scarcity of all kinds. Looking back, it seems that they likely had hidden motivations for hyping public fears over population growth and technological innovation.

But we do all share the same atmosphere, the same oceans, the same international travelways. Crime and incivility have certainly followed migrants — along with a range of diseases — from Africa and Asia to Europe, causing quality of life to drop in many cities. The commons are slowly being fouled in multiple ways, and thanks to dysgenic birthrates, humans over most of the world are becoming less capable of dealing with emerging problems.

Proactive Prophylaxis

These days, emerging viruses can move around the world with startling speed. Most of them will be relatively harmless, but it is all too easy for humans to be blindsided by the unexpected. By the time we realise what has happened, it can be too late to alter the consequences.

Just as important as building border walls to keep out potentially violent, unassimilable, and dysfunctional immigrants, is the importance of learning to build multiple protections against the intentional and unintentional spread of threats of the biological and non-biological kinds.

Virucidal surface coatings provide another layer of broad-spectrum protection from unforeseen emergent microbes. Examples:

Fluorinated TiO2

Ionically Cross-Linked Polymeric Thin Films

Silver nanoparticle

… and many more possibilities.

Advanced filtration membranes from silk proteins may become an important part of the protective shields we learn to devise against unanticipated threats. These and other such protective shields will need to be effective, relatively unobtrusive, inexpensive, easily implemented, easily and cleanly disposed of, and very broad spectrum in effect.

Consider growing your own silkworms, and learning to make your own nanofibril membranes. Such skills may prove useful on your next transcontinental jaunt. But remember: silkworms are also vulnerable to viral infection. Make sure they all wear their nanofibril micro-masks. 😉

Posted in Biomedicine, Demographics, Doom, Epidemiology | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Oil Price Outlook: July 2016

Where Things Stand

According to the EIA, crude oil prices actually peaked in March of 2012 with Brent Light Sweet Crude (Brent) topping out at more than $125 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reaching nearly $110. They have not seen those price levels since. In late 2014, crude prices collapsed. They have recovered considerably, but to this day Brent is still down about 60% from its 2012 peak and WTI remains some 50% lower. At present, both trade in the neighborhood of about $50.00 per barrel. ___

Elevated oil price levels between 2010 and early 2014 emboldened Vladimir Putin to forcefully annex Crimea and directly support civil war in Ukraine. But then oil supplies began to consistently outpace demand, oil prices began to drop, and geopolitics hasn’t been the same since.

Where Oil Prices are Most Likely to Go

Barring a severe global upheaval, and until Saudi Arabia and Russia begin to significantly slow production, oil prices are likely to stay inside the $40 bbl to $60 bbl price range for the next several years. North American producers are sitting on thousands of drilled, unfracked wells that can be fracked and put into production on short notice. Producers from Latin America to Africa to MENA to Central Asia to Southeast Asia are waiting for prices to rise and general conditions to stabilise and improve, before ramping up idled production.

There are no economic bright spots to drive global oil demand — and prices — higher at this time.

Near term:
Short term price downturn likely . . . more . . .

Unless the northern hemisphere sees a very cold winter, demand for oil & gas are not likely to surpass available supplies for at least a year.

“We have a lot of oil in the system and it will take us considerable time to work that off,” Ian Taylor, chief executive officer of Vitol Group, the biggest independent oil trader, told Bloomberg Television in an interview. “I cannot see the market really roaring ahead.” __ Oil Contango

Floating oil storage is at a six year high, despite higher tanker rental costs. There do not seem to be enough buyers for oil at today’s price levels.

But as most wise traders and analysts understand, oil markets are never in a state of balance. The trick is to catch the swings from imbalance to imbalance before most other traders.

Short to middle term:

But according to energy consultants Douglas-Westwood, prices will remain where they are now until about 2019, when offshore oil production will finally peak. The company’s analysts list 15 large-scale offshore projects that are to blame, including Iran’s South Pars field, Brazil’s Lula in the pre-salt layer of the Santos Basin, and Mexico’s Tsimin-Xux. These three alone are projected to yield a combined 1.617 million barrels per day in 2017. __

The author of the above piece suggests that offshore producers are being forced to overproduce existing wells to recover costs, but that fewer offshore replacement wells will take their place after 2019. In other words, the current price regime should stay in place for 2 to 3 more years before reduced offshore production moves supply below demand.

Shale Oil Plentiful Worldwide

Tight oil production in North America has helped shift the global oil price calculus from where it was in 2012 to where it is today. And there is much more shale oil where that came from. In fact, most of the world’s oil remains trapped in source rock, waiting for clever innovators and bold investor/entrepreneurs to set them free.

The EIA maintains a periodically updated assessment of [countries] that have “Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources”. In its most recent iteration, that assessment included 41 countries, excluding the United States, with combined estimated resources of nearly 345 billion barrels of crude oil. To put that into context, the world currently consumes about 95 million barrels of oil every day. __ Oil Prices to Stay Low Longer Term

It is not the “technically recoverable resources” that are as important as the increasing ease and low cost of recovering them. These resources can only grow in size over time, while the technical feasibility and affordability of recovering them comes into easier reach.

Petrostate woes

Venezuela is in trouble. But Venezuela is far from alone in its petrostate woes. Corrupt petrostates from Mexico to Saudi Arabia to Iran to Russia grew spoiled by inflated energy prices, and must now scramble to devise alternative plans for regime survival.

Petrostates Lose; Others Gain

In a June 2015 study authored by Adrian Cooper of Oxford Economics and released by the EIA, it is estimated that lower oil prices give U.S. households an extra $1,000 of disposable income. That rings positively for American consumers and the U.S. economy in the aggregate. __ Forbes

Net oil importers such as “Japan, China, South Korea, India, Germany, France, Singapore, Italy, and Spain” are also likely to benefit from longer term low oil prices.

When Energy Analysts Contradict Themselves

Energy Analyst Bipolar Disorder:

Art Berman on 20 June 2016 predicts cripplingly higher oil prices in the near future.

Art Berman on 15 July 2016 declares that oil prices may never rise.

Why would a generally respected oil price analyst so rapidly cycle from one extreme to another in less than one month? Take all predictions with a grain of salt and buckle up for a bumpy ride.

Doomers and Petrostates Denied the Shale Explosion Until They Couldn’t Any Longer

Whenever a “peak oil” enthusiast predicts the imminent collapse of shale oil production, you should first ask whether that person predicted the shale explosion and oil price shakeup to begin with. If not, there is not reason to take them seriously now. Most peak oilers were in lock-step with Vladimir Putin when he said that North American shale oil would never be a significant force in global oil markets. But who’s laughing now, Vlad?

Doomers also predicted the collapse of Saudi Arabian and Russian oil production between 2005 and 2010, but both petrostates have been breaking production records over the past two years.

Back in 2006 when Al Fin began predicting “a coming oil glut” on Al Fin Energy blog, peak oil doomers were just beginning to reach their stride in predicting imminent global collapse from a sudden loss in oil production.

Is it peak oil yet?


Conflicting oil price trends from China and Russia —

China’s economy is under severe stress, which suggests future reductions in global oil demand when the excrement contacts the rotating blades.

Russia is slowly sinking into the mire, which points to a now irreversible future of demographic and national decline. This will be accompanied by a drop in Russian oil production, as Russians can no longer field the manpower to sustain vital systems across all sectors of the economy and government.

Posted in Energy, Oil Prices | Tagged | 2 Comments

Erdogan Officially Joins the “Strong Man” Club

If the world’s talking heads were in an uproar over Brexit, what can they be thinking about the ongoing purges in Turkey? Turkey is the pivot between Europe and lands east. Turkey stands astride the divide between Islam and Christianity, between clan-based dictatorships and more democratic systems of rule, between a world with an average human IQ of 100 and a world of average IQ between 80 and 85. Brexit was nothing compared with what is happening in Turkey.

Since the failed coup in Turkey, Erdoğan has cracked down on those allegedly behind it, having produced a suspiciously convenient arrest list for thousands of politicians and military and judicial personnel, whom he accuses of threatening his “democratic” rule. But Erdoğan now faces a stark choice: follow Putin and Xi down the path of autocratic no return, or retrace his steps back toward functioning democracy. __ Strongman Deadman

When the Turkish people rallied to support Erdogan against military plotters, they unwittingly gave the strong man carte blanche to purge all political and ideological opposition from government, media, education, and all levels of Turkish society. By supporting Erdogan’s survival, they opened the door to a totalitarianism without limit or conceivable end.

But seen in a broader light, Erdogan is simply speeding up his takeover timetable to match fellow strongmen Putin and Xi, who have been carrying out similar “reforms” against all limits on their own personal power to dictate.

Return of the Age of Strongman Rule?

We have always had tinpots like Castro, Kim, Chavez, the mad mullahs of Iran, Assad, Saddam, etc. As long as such throwbacks did not wield too much power on the world stage, they were largely tolerated — until they were not. But recent events in Turkey, Russia, and China suggest that we are seeing a larger return to strongman autocracy.

Putin, Erdoğan, and even Chinese President Xi Jinping all have similar, justifiable fears about their political survival. All three came to office in systems that place real constraints on the exercise of power – even if the system is otherwise undemocratic or an infant democracy ready to be strangled in its cradle. In Erdoğan’s case, Turkey had the rule of law and institutional checks and balances on executive power; and in Putin and Xi’s case, there were unwritten rules sanctified by decades of precedent.

… Like Putin, Xi uses anti-corruption measures to dispatch rivals and concentrate power in his own hands, and he has been even more ruthless than Putin in doing so. Hundreds of senior generals in the People’s Liberation Army have been purged and imprisoned on corruption charges.

By violating Party norms and unwritten agreements among the ruling elite, Putin and Xi, it is becoming increasingly clear, understand that they can never relinquish power voluntarily without fearing for their future safety.

__ Strongman Power Trap

The same caveat now applies to Erdogan, who is likewise burning his bridges behind him. Strongman rule can be rapid, decisive, and brutal — but it also tends to become incredibly brittle, corrupt, and eventually untenable. When a nation adopts a personality cult in place of a workable rule of law, the path to advancement for everyone in the society suddenly must pass through one man.

When the Strongman Falls, Turmoil Rules

But time and tides wait for no man, and every life must end. When a strongman passes the point of no return, he cannot survive a transition of power. And the society he tried so hard to create cannot survive him. The greatest threats to Putin, Xi, Erdogan, and the like, comes from fellow countrymen whose destinies, livelihoods, and opportunities have been stymied and destroyed by dictatorial decree.

A Choice of War?

All of that is likely unless the strongmen — like Hitler, Tojo, Kaiser Wilhelm, Nicholas II, Mussolini etc. — decide to start escalating wars of expansion. In that case, the timetable for dissolution of strongman rule gets moved up rather quickly. This is the choice that is faced by multiple strongmen of today: To war or not to war?

Putin and Xi are already halfway there with their provocations in Eastern Europe and the China Seas, respectively. Very little additional miscalculation on either of their part could start the clock ticking down on their own inevitable ruin — and an entirely unanticipated future for their former countries.

Erdogan Can Bring Europe to Its Knees

It is curious that Erdogan decided to arrest the pilots that shot down a Russian bomber several months ago, triggering an international incident between former friends. The arrests would seem to offer an olive branch to Putin, in addition to other recent conciliatory gestures from the Turkish strongman to the Russian.

Russia has something that Erdogan wants — trade, tourists, and situational alliances for short-term goals. Erdogan can offer something that Putin desperately needs — blackmail over Europe to force the curtailment of EU sanctions on Russia for its illegal annexation of Crimea. Erdogan now has the power to collect and release a flood of dangerous immigrants into Europe such as the weakling politically correct confederation of welfare states has never seen. Europe is already teetering at the brink of deep domestic unrest. Erdogan could push the balance into full-scale insurrection.

Quid pro quo between the two strongmen appears to give both what they seem to want. But even the most obvious plays at these levels can have unpredictable results.

After losing most of its best men in World Wars I and II, Europe is soft and weak, unable to think or act for itself. Germany and Russia are to thank for the devastation from those wars. 70 years of Pax Americana has left most of the world unprepared to face the new era of the strongmen without the constant assistance of the superpower of the west. And that assistance can no longer be guaranteed.

The United States is withdrawing from the world. The United States created and maintained the global free trade order. Without the United States’ smothering security presence, much of the world either will devolve as local powers fight for the scraps or return to their pre-1945 state of affairs. In Europe it will be a bit of both. One outcome among many is that the geopolitical environment of enforced peace and open trade that enabled the Europeans to form the EU in the first place is disappearing. For reasons well beyond the Europeans’ control, the EU is ending.


Things are likely to grow more interesting.


Focus on Putin

Foreign Policy of Hitler, Domestic Policy of Mussolini

You Don’t Have to Be Crazy to Fall for Kremlin Propaganda — But it Helps!

To Move Forward, Russia must Release its Attachment to Imperialist Mindset

Demographically, it is already too late for Russia.

… ethnic Russians are declining both in number and the share of the population while the non-Russians are increasing on both measures, something the Kremlin is loath to acknowledge. __ Demographic Collapse of Ethnic Russians Ongoing

Last gasp flail of a dying KGB

Strongman rule is the ambrosia of ambitious men, and the abdication of responsibility by citizens. Russia’s susceptibility to the siren song of imperial greatness illustrates this fatal weakness in already-downtrodden populations. Putin, of course, is in too deep to turn back now.

Posted in China, geopolitics, Putin | Tagged , | 5 Comments

How Putin and Xi Are Assuming the Role of Dictators

Putin's New National Guard BBC

Putin’s New National Guard

Putin Tightens Grip on Power

Russia’s people are suffering, at the same time that Putin strengthens his personal grip on Russia’s wealth and power, including tightened personal control of “Interior Ministry troops, SWAT, and riot police forces, as well as the Center for Special Rapid Reaction Force and the Interior Ministry Aviation, along with government agencies dealing with government-sanctioned arms trafficking and the provision of private security services,” which will report directly to the little big man.

Putin has created a large armed formation subordinate directly to him — a formation that could target Russian society. Indeed, Putin appointed one of his bodyguards as head of the force.

… According to the official document, the main objectives of Rosgvardiya will be “protection of public order, combating terrorism and extremism, participation in territorial defense, the protection of important state facilities and special cargo.” The law also opens up the possibility of using National Guard troops in international operations “to restore and maintain peace.” Rosgvadriya now picks up all official paramilitary duties of the Ministry of the Interior, whose forces were designed to maintain order across Russia, with varying results.


Putin has re-drawn the power map of Russian forces of all kinds to make sure that no force commanders below him could seize power in a coup. This move also gives Putin Hitlerian powers to immediately override force commanders in either declared or undeclared wars.

“The surprise announcement signals that the Putin administration is worried about instability, in Russia as well as the Kremlin itself,” US security and intelligence firm Stratfor said in an analysis following Putin’s announcement. “This may suggest that the Russian president doubts whether other security forces — the FSB [Federal Security Service], Interior Ministry troops, or even the military — would remain loyal to him in the event of a coup.” __

Putin’s Moves Reflect Earlier Actions by Xi in China

In this April 21, 2016, image taken from a video footage run by China's CCTV via AP Video, Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, in military uniform poses for a group photo with military staff members at the Chinese army’s Joint Operation Command Center in Beijing. Xi is assuming a more direct role as commander of the country's powerful armed forces with the new title of commander in chief of its Joint Operations Command Center. Xi's new position was revealed in news reports run on Wednesday and Thursday in which he appeared publicly for the first time in camouflage battle dress wearing the center's insignia.(Photo: CCTV via AP)

In this April 21, 2016, image taken from a video footage run by China’s CCTV via AP Video, Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, in military uniform poses for a group photo with military staff members at the Chinese army’s Joint Operation Command Center in Beijing. Xi is assuming a more direct role as commander of the country’s powerful armed forces with the new title of commander in chief of its Joint Operations Command Center. Xi’s new position was revealed in news reports run on Wednesday and Thursday in which he appeared publicly for the first time in camouflage battle dress wearing the center’s insignia.(Photo: CCTV via AP)

China’s Xi is the country’s President, the Communist Party Secretary, chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission, and now commander in chief of the military’s Joint Operations Command Center.

China has no military apart from the armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party, known as the People’s Liberation Army. (Imagine if all US military and security forces were under the direct control of the Republican Party) Xi has re-organised China’s military and paramilitary structures to centralise command structures to fall even more directly under his own control — stripping regional commanders of much of their clout.

China’s president, Xi Jinping, has already grasped more power more quickly than his two recent predecessors, and he has shown a taste for audacious decisions and a loathing for dissent. But a new push to praise him as China’s “core” leader, a term resonant with the formidable stature once held by Deng Xiaoping, suggests that his steely quest for dominance is not over.

… On Jan. 7, the Politburo Standing Committee, the seven-member inner circle of party power run by Mr. Xi, demanded unwavering loyalty to the central leadership and to him, according to Xinhua, the state-run news agency.

… “He’s been reconfiguring the patterns of Chinese politics to strengthen his position step by step,” Mr. Jin said. “The anticorruption campaign, taking control of law and order, reforming of the military, all have concentrated power,” he said. “This ‘core’ expression is another step.”
___ NYT

Such dramatic moves to consolidate power on the part of Putin and Xi point to an anticipation by both men of the need to act in a prompt and dramatic fashion against perceived opposition and enemy forces — either foreign or domestic. These moves amount to the assumption of dictatorial powers, when taken together with other acts by these men to consolidate control over the government.

Such Power Plays Often Signal Plans for War

Although recent sabre-rattling by both Moscow and Beijing has had the effect of driving away badly needed foreign investment, quasi-dictators Putin and Xi have persisted in alienating their neighbors and triggering heightened defensive measures by NATO and free Asian alliances in the Pacific.

While the people of China remain mired in poverty and the people of Russia sink once again into a quagmire of national decay, the strong-arm leaders of the two nations are moving toward dangerous illegal confrontations that could easily escalate to regional and global war.

Demography is Destiny

Both Russia and China are beginning to lose working-aged and military-aged populations — although Russia is much farther down the decline curve than is China. In a decade, Russia will not have the manpower to defend its current borders — much less attempt to expand them.

China, on the other hand, is still growing in overall population — and China’s military is growing in strength, size, and sophistication at a rate that Russia will never be able to match. In other words, China is reaching a demographic plateau which it can use as a strong power base. Russia is well on the downward slope — and thanks to having made enemies of most of its neighbors, is growing dangerously dependent on its neighbor to the southeast which happens to be casting covetous eyes toward valuable Siberian assets.

In other words, Russia is setting itself up to be China’s pleasure woman, and having backed himself into a corner Putin can do nothing but grit his teeth and hold on for the ride. “Better to reign in hell than serve in heaven,” not that he has much choice any longer.

A Natural Relentless Ongoing Incursion by China Into the Former Russia

A Natural Relentless Ongoing Incursion by China Into the Former Russia

We are living in unstable times. Erdogan has decided that he needs to imitate frenemies to his north and east, and is rapidly consolidating his own dictatorial hold on power in Turkey. Such moves are death to a nation’s economy, but in the short term may help a dictator to sleep more easily at night.

Not All Dictators Die in Bed or Sail Away to Exile These Days

Posted in China, Military, Putin, Russia | Tagged | Leave a comment

A New Wave of HIV Emerges From an Unexpected Quarter

While Sub-Saharan Africa still has the highest number of people living with HIV – more than 24 million – it is Eastern Europe and central Asia that registered the greatest increase in the number of new cases. __

HIV Re-Emerges Stronger than Ever Source

HIV Re-Emerges Stronger than Ever

A New Epicentre of HIV Spread Emerges

New HIV infections in Russia are fuelling the global AIDS epidemic as the country struggles to come up with effective prevention strategies, Unaids has said. Though the fight against HIV has largely been successful as in recent years, with the number of annual new cases worldwide falling significantly, the UN agency fears this positive trend is progressively being reversed. __ IBTimes

Unexpectedly, a resurgence in global HIV rates is emerging from Russia. Despite this deadly new threat, Russian authorities are slashing spending on AIDS treatment and clamping down on private groups that are attempting to slow the Russian epidemic.

This is the approach we would expect from a corrupt third world African government, not a regime that aspires to superpower status. The Kremlin is rushing to project an image of military dominance while its inner human substance is rotting outward from HIV AIDS and a long list of other potentially existential threats.

What is most worrisome, the UN agency says, is that the share of new cases of HIV infection continue to grow far more rapidly in Russia than in most other countries.

… only 37 percent of those the Russian government has identified as having HIV are receiving treatment. And if one compares the number treated to those estimated to be infected but not registered as such with the authorities, the share getting medical help is only 28 percent.

Moreover, in order to save money, the Russian government has ended early intervention in HIV cases, withholding help until symptoms appear, failing to combat widespread intravenous narcotics use by providing methadone, and cutting spending for imported medicines needed to fight HIV/AIDS.


In Russia Today, building new military systems including tanks, missiles, fighter aircraft, and submarines takes priority over questions of public health, education, transportation, and other critical infrastructure. Without a credible military threat, Kremlin leadership would have no clout on the international stage, and would thus be personally diminished and risk dangerous drops in testosterone levels.

Trying to cope with such problems is not easy for Russia. Addressing the underlying challenges would divert increasingly scarce resources from an economy that is under ever-greater strain because of international sanctions and the low price of oil.

Recent cuts in health care and education will not solve the problems affecting the Russian economy. At most, they are palliative measures that may help the budgetary outlook temporarily, but will not cure a sick economy. __

But Kremlin leaders are not actually trying to cure the sick economy. They are rather most interested in maintaining and increasing personal wealth and power. The health of the economy and of the people do not signify.

Russia is sick and its people are growing rapidlly poorer and more depressed.

Today, the number of homeless children in Russia is estimated to be between one and five million. Despite these shocking figures, the issue hardly appears on the political or public agenda. While government policy toward homeless children continues to be executed sporadically and essentially irresponsibly, the proportion of the Russian population living outside the law continues to grow, portending the possibility of a future crisis. IMR’s Olga Khvostunova reports on youth homelessness in Russia today.


There are about 1 million prisoners in Russia, with a growing number of political prisoners. There are more than 1 million slaves in Russia. Over 2 million Russians are iv drug abusers. Which helps explain why nearly 2 million Russians are estimated to be infected with HIV. As long as spending for tanks and missiles takes precedence over health care, education, economic reform, and critical infrastructure, these problems will just get worse.


Something about Russia and China spawns superbugs

A simple reminder: When dictatorial powers ramp up international military provocations, fund rapid military development at the expense of the well-being of their populations, and continue to accelerate conflict despite the loss of crucial foreign investment — such powers are weighing a rapid escalation of “last ditch” hostile engagements. Such attacks may involve funding and organising race wars inside opposing nations; they may involve attacks on power grids of a cyber, EMP, or physical nature; they may involve the covert backing of terror groups or attacks on the international financial and communications systems.

North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China are nuclear powers that are frantically backing themselves into corners as a direct result of their own unwarranted and unwise provocations. Anything could happen as a result of nuclear-armed tyrants desperately clinging to systems of power that they themselves have unwittingly sabotaged.

Posted in Russia, Russian Decline | Tagged , | Leave a comment