Demography and Dysgenics: The Challenge of An Ebbing Tide

Global Ageing
Note: Most Russian Males Die Before Reaching 65

The developed world is getting older. If a nation can attract very high quality immigrants, it will better withstand the ageing and dying away of its high IQ populations. But the nations that are inundated by violent, non-productive, low IQ populations — via immigration and via differential birthrates of immigrants — will feel the pain of paralytic contraction, increasing poverty, and ever higher rates of violent crime.

Brian Wang provides an interesting graphical look at the future of US demographics in the 21st century.:

The non-Hispanic white population is projected to peak in 2024, at 199.6 million, up from 197.8 million in 2012. Unlike other race or ethnic groups, however, its population is projected to slowly decrease, falling by nearly 20.6 million from 2024 to 2060.

Meanwhile, the Hispanic population would more than double, from 53.3 million in 2012 to 128.8 million in 2060. Consequently, by the end of the period, nearly one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic, up from about one in six today.

The black population is expected to increase from 41.2 million to 61.8 million over the same period. Its share of the total population would rise slightly, from 13.1 percent in 2012 to 14.7 percent in 2060.

The Asian population is projected to more than double, from 15.9 million in 2012 to 34.4 million in 2060, with its share of nation’s total population climbing from 5.1 percent to 8.2 percent in the same period.

Sometime around 2040-2050, the US population should reach 400 million. __NextBigFuture

Europe, Japan, South Korea, and other nations with high IQ populations are suffering from low birthrates. Unless these nations are to become depopulated ghost lands, they will have to attract high quality immigrants to keep the machines running.

Fertility Rates

But the primary source of future immigrants will be the most impoverished parts of the perennially low IQ third world, where birth rates are set to skyrocket:

Sub-Saharan Africa is about to explode numerically.

It’s one billion population will double by 2050 and more than triple by the end of the 21st century. Nigeria, with 173 million people now, will swell to 730 million in 85 years, becoming the third-largest state in the world.

India will be the largest nation, China the second-most populous and the United States, the fourth.

After the US, startlingly, will be Tanzania, zooming from today’s 50 million people to 316 million in 2100.

The Democratic Republic of Congo, up from 70 million to 212 million over the same period, becomes the world’s eighth-largest entity.

Even impoverished Malawi, now with about 13 million people, will grow to 130 million by the end of the century. __ Christian Science Monitor

Africa cannot support all of those projected newcomers without massive outside aide. But as the advanced world is transformed by the shriveling away of ethnic Europeans combined with the mushrooming of ethnic populations of the third world, who will be in a position to provide the unimaginable levels of aide which Africa’s brave new 21st century populations will demand?

The continent’s overall population is expected to more than quadruple over just 90 years, an astonishingly rapid growth that will make Africa more important than ever. And it’s not just that there will four times the workforce, four times the resource burden, four times as many voters. The rapid growth itself will likely transform political and social dynamics within African countries and thus their relationship with the rest of the world. __ Washington Post

Africa’s burgeoning masses are being crowded into giant slum cities with open sewers and desperate crime and poverty. A hopeless life of misery awaits those who cannot escape to Europe or other more advanced nations. For the tens or hundreds of millions who successfully reach other shores, what will they do once they are there? What can large populations do whose average IQ is 75 (plus or minus 5)?

Without enough capable people, a society goes dark

Nations from Russia to Spain to Italy to Greece to the US will be forced to deal with the fallout from significant influxes of low IQ populations — specifically higher violent crime rates, lower productivity, and ever higher government expenditures for entitlements.

Without sufficient “smart fraction,” the machinery of high tech civilisation will collapse onto itself, with scavengers and “parts changers” occupying a valued place in society just beneath the thug strongman leader and his cronies.

Say goodby to invention, productive innovation, and broad-based prosperity. As average population IQs decline, the law of the jungle takes precedence over antiquated rules of law written by more intelligent and genteel populations.

Escaping the destiny of demography is difficult. When it happens, it usually happens in the opposite direction than intended, such as in North Korea. Oil rich kingdoms of the Persian Gulf can only escape their demographic destiny temporarily, with massive outside help paid for at high prices.

What is the solution to this ebbing tide of human potential?

Nothing more complex or difficult than the assembly of interconnected networks of resilient and dangerous communities (R&D Communities). Such networked communities serve as repositories of existing knowledge and technologies, and provide a place for open inquiry and experimentation/innovation.

When the global demographic crisis has worked itself out — no doubt in a very gruesome manner, thanks to Putin and other latter day Napoleons — a significant number of R&D communities will be in position to re-build technological and scientific civilisation.

Countries with heterogeneous populations are likely to suffer civil wars of various kinds — from the ongoing black on white race war currently carried out in the US to more overt civil wars such as one sees in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, and other parts of the middle east and near-Russian territories. Schisms are building by the day.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. Change is coming, like it or not.

For more detail on the underlying dynamics driving dysgenic demographic change, see Richard Lynn’s “Dysgenics,” free for download in multiple formats

Update: The demographic death of Europe has not gone unnoticed

Put simply, fewer and fewer youngsters are supporting more and more retirees. Europe’s working age population peaked in 2012 at 308 million, and will fall to 265 million by 2060. The ratio of pensioners to workers will, according to The Economist, rise from 28 per cent to 58 per cent – and even these statistics assume the arrival of a million immigrants every year.

More: After looking over this 4000 year timeline of human history (via Xenosystems), consider how the next 1000 years may look.

4000 Years of History — Cartographies of Time
http://www.themorningnews.org/gallery/cartographies-of-time