Dozens of Nations Will Not Be Able to Hold Onto What They Have
The globe is crowded with unwieldy, oversized, unstable nations pretending to be something they are not. Winter is coming, and by “winter” I mean a spreading state of anarchy where “nothing works,” when hosts of over-puffed nations will soon be forced to face the reality of violent downsizing.
We live in an irrational and unsustainable age of the nation state, in a world that is balanced on a razor’s edge, poised to topple without proper preparations and provisions having been made. And no wonder, when national greatness is measured by the ability of a state to tyrannise its citizens and to commit mischief and block peaceful prosperity in neighboring states. But such behaviours only accelerate the coming anarchy and disintegration both near and abroad.
The Nation State is Losing its Grip
As instability grows within oversized nation states that are demographically downsizing and suffering from growing debt and dysgenic decline, these nations will grasp for any order they might find. The forces of urbanisation have caused power to shift strongly to the larger cities, but as cities grow larger and more unwieldy, the seeds of anarchy sprout and grow into the sunlight of demographic decay.
Megacities Becoming Foci First of Power, then of Instability
Anyone who has had to balance the ongoing demands of power grids, transportation systems, communications networks, water and sewer infrastructures, and all of the other critical infrastructures of a city, will understand that the complexity of these systems increases exponentially as populations rise. This is particularly true when populations consist of growing numbers of low IQ peoples of violent tendency. The more stupid and violent people you try to cram into a limited space, the more dysfunctional and unworkable the project becomes. Europe and the Anglosphere have made an art of importing large numbers of such people to populate their own cities, so western people will be able to see the consequences of these policies at first hand.
As competent control weakens and declines, these central hellholes necessarily become foci of violence, hunger, plague, and human predation. Distinctions between governments and crime syndicates will be distinctions without differences. And since cities traditionally dictate order and prioritise activity for surrounding countrysides, chaos in cities will spread outward.
Secession and Separatist Movements Have Never Been so Vocal and Popular
Most nations of the world are artificial, involuntary conglomerations of peoples thrown together by chance and conquest. Separatist emotions are strong across most large and medium-sized nations of the third world, the emerging world, and the advanced world alike. As the forces of cohesion fray, weaken, and snap apart, the forces of secession and separatism will cohere around any viable nuclei which may form.
For organised groups that wish to be successful in such endeavours, a significant amount of planning and preparation would be necessary, involving planning for multiple contingencies.
The United Nations is a Joke, as Are Most Nations Belonging to the Pathetic Collective Hoax
When the large nations that underwrite the UN come under significant stress, the UN will be one of the first organisations to lose funding. This would be particularly true with a president such as Donald Trump in America, or equivalent leaders of influence in Europe and the Anglosphere. Without the UN and the threat of violence by nation-state advocates, the forces of separatism and secession would be unleashed. Most such revolutions would result in disaster and smoldering anarchy, but wherever proper planning and preparation had been put in, successful new foci of opportunity would likely sprout up.
It is Perhaps Easiest to Find a Stable Country and Hunker Down
During World War I and World War II, large parts of the world were either far from the hostilities or declared themselves neutral, protecting their citizens from direct contact with the fighting. In the coming anarchy, it may not be nearly so easy to find a safe haven.
Sweden, for example, was never the “rape capital of Europe” until its leaders invited the coming anarchy into its towns and neighborhoods. The same type of decay is seen in cities across Europe, thanks to degenerate leadership.
It remains generally unsaid that exactly the same decline has already taken place in cities across North America as its indigenous underclasses combine with state-dependent immigrants of dubious quality, expanding into once prosperous neighborhoods which subsequently become crime-ridden slums. This should have been a warning to Europe, but instead has long been taken as a sign of European superiority. But now, Europe might well dismount from its judgmental high horse and start making preparations for its own disastrous self-mutilation by immigration, before it is too late to protect itself.
What are the Opportunities Arising from this Coming Chaos?
Clearly, for a better, sounder order to arise, a degenerate age must make way. And since degenerate orders such as ours do not typically stand aside voluntarily, the chaotic fruit of their own suicidal policies will sooner or later take them down — when combined with the wars of opportunity that will spontaneously spring up between rotten and dying systems of government.
Nations such as Russia, China, Brasil, most African and middle eastern nations, South Asia, nations of Central Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, Mexico, and perhaps Canada, may naturally break up into smaller pieces. This will provide opportunities for competent and capitalised groups that are ready to take charge of more defensible areas, and further to suborn local and regional military and law enforcement that are cut loose from the disintegrating centre.
Seasteads have often been put forward as viable alternatives to the nation-state, but even the foremost champions of seasteads acknowledge that better alternatives may be available. Charter cities and “free private cities” offer alternatives to the seastead, which is quite vulnerable to a wide range of mortal threats.
Any Port in a Storm
The phrase “any port in a storm” refers to the need of humans to seek shelter and safety under adverse conditions. Clearly in an age of widespread failure of nation-states — accompanied by chaos in megacities — safe havens would become increasingly rare across much of the world. Most of the third and emerging worlds would revert to barbarous conditions where outsiders would find it difficult to survive and escape quasi-slavery. Much of the currently advanced world would find itself slipping toward conditions that are more typical of the third and emerging worlds.
The shrinking numbers of safe havens would find themselves inundated by well educated — but essentially incompetent — modern peoples. Providing for this extra overburden of refugees will become increasingly difficult. It will not escape notice by their new hosts that the newcomers had only become refugees because they had failed to keep their own houses in order.
All of This Presents Huge Opportunities to Mobile Groups of Competence Possessing Portable Technologies and Infrastructures
After the coming anarchy and chaos hits most of the world, anyone who can master the construction and maintenance of basic infrastructure will be at an advantage when it comes to being able to feed and shelter people in communities and cities. Parallel infrastructures at all scales will be needed. A power supply such as a small nuclear reactor capable of fitting within shipping containers, able to provide power and heat to an island or isolated community, could fit into power infrastructures at multiple scales. Persons who could operate, maintain, and scale such technologies of vital infrastructure have the power to create safe havens and shape them to more sustainable social patterns.
Power, heat, microgrid infrastructure, transportation infrstructure, fresh water, sanitation, health care, comfortable housing, education/training, legal arbitration and contracts, banking and financial systems, law enforcement, defence against external threats, etc. etc. all contingencies must be considered and planned for before the project is even considered. And even then, one must wait for the proper time to make one’s move.
Defensible Islands are Better than Seasteads
Seasteads can sink or be sunk. In times of global anarchy, defensible islands with food supplies and modern infrastructure provide a safer haven.
Charter cities might be safer than seasteads in some situations, assuming the host country holds to its obligations. That will not always be the case.
Cold weather locations can be made livable with proper infrastructure, as long as competent engineers, maintenance men, installers, and spare parts makers are available.
Today’s Global Population Cannot be Sustained in Times of Anarchy
Given the huge oversupply of low IQ incompetent people living in the third world, who are unable to take care of themselves and must be kept alive by the largesse of a well-functioning and generous advanced world, it should be easy to see how quickly large numbers would die under conditions of global anarchy.
Without outside help, tropical diseases, tribal wars, food shortages, and other endemic plagues that have been held back by outside aide, would quickly sweep in like tsunamis to obliterate large and vulnerable parts of these populations. Advanced weapons systems would be called into play to fight ancient enemies, until the complex systems broke down for lack of maintenance and spare parts. Soon, machetes and spears would once again become primary means of large scale homicide, as in Hotel Rwanda.
In the middle east, nuclear weapons might well be brought into play, but the supply of such weapons would be finite under conditions of uncertain foreign support and re-supply. Tens of millions would die, at least, whether from bullets, sharpened edges and points, or from nuclear chain reactions.
Even in a Russia that should know better, the unprovoked use of nuclear weapons in a vain attempt to maintain great empire status, is at least an even chance. Moscow has been a regional bully for hundreds of years and is widely hated by virtually all of its neighbors and constituent ethnic minorities. The Russian empire — artificially held in existence for so long — must eventually collapse of its own weight. If Russia chooses to go out with a grand nuclear convulsion, the world will once again pay the price for Moscow’s idiocy.
But the definitive shape of this likely collapse is largely conjecture, and very little planning can be done to mitigate the impact of madmen on the world.
It is Best to Focus on the Things that One Can Impact for the Better
Training Dangerous Children and devising systems of disruptive technologies and parallel infrastructures can be diverting occupations, in addition to other necessary activities of life. Readers will think of particular projects and cooperative ventures which might create more opportunities for a more abundant and expansive future, in the face of a wide range of contingencies.
Doom is not a given, particularly not the kind of doom that is typically served by conspiracy theorists, peak oilers, climate apocalyptics, green slimers, and others of that ilk. But unscrupulous and stupid humans find ways to propagate themselves and rise to positions of power and influence. By doing so, they contribute to a growing tide of chaos that naturally accrues to any sufficiently complex local and global system.
Hope for the Best. Prepare for the Worst
It is possible to create “islands of competence” within nations-in-decline. As long as such islands can trade with and communicate with other islands of competence, they can remain viable, if certain precautions are taken. National educational systems should be radically overhauled to take into account the “unexpected” challenges which future generations will face. A more dangerous world will confront today’s youngsters which their parents have largely been able to sidestep or otherwise ignore. Such will not be possible for much longer.
You studiously and very obviously avoid applying your analytical techniques to the US. Yet, the US is very obviously a candidate for race way and economic and social collapse. Turn your microscope on the US for a change. We are much more susceptible to collapse than is Russia or China. They, after all, have legitimate governments.
The USA is clearly in a category of its own. It receives abundant attention on this blog and will continue to do so. But this particular blog posting hints at some things that Peter Zeihan points out in his book, “Accidental Superpower.” While the US is certainly prone to discord, racial violence, terrorism, and all the rest, a deeper understanding of what a total collapse entails suggests that the highly illegitimate governments of China and Russia are far more at risk of toppling than the highly illegitimate government of the US.
When you say “We are much more susceptible to collapse”:perhaps you should speak for yourself. Hire a home inspector to check for termites and examine your walls and foundation. Such things can be serious, particularly in a severe storm. 😉
I leave in France and I can tell you that the situation is FAR from being “stable”.
* EVEBODY (I insist, really everybody including press, officials) is talking about the coming civil war
* police officers are rioting illegally, we did not see that in France from … AFAIK
* next elections are a joke (everybody is upset about that)
* the state debt is skyrocketing
* nuclear industry is in turnmoil
* the country is already burning in many places due to the local intifada
* rapefugees are spreading in the country on the government orders, that let them make the law, and tells people who don’t like them to leave the country
* unemployment is high, tourism very low (due to insecurity)
* educative system is collapsing (idiocracy is really visible)
We are a rich country, we have a stable political system, we have top of the edge industries, we have great military force.
we are collapsing.
So no, we are not stable at all. I think we have less than 10 year left (hard to say, it depends of international context)
I suspect that you are being unduly pessimistic in your timeline. Most of the new immigrants to France are quite stupid although violent and lazy, and an intelligent resistance by the native French could change the situation over time.
Europe’s leftist leaders have surrendered to the forces of anarchy, and it is up to the people of Europe to put those leaders where they belong. We’re going to need a lot more guillotines. 😉
France needs more Dangerous Children, as do all the nations of Europe.
Maybe I’m pessimistic (I have a high neuroticism) because there is no “intelligent resistance by the native French” at all !
That’s the problem here. Idiocracy is wining everyday a little bit more.
My analysis is that :
we have a lot of dumb lefist
we have a lot of old people that don’t want to be involved
we have a lot of females and young man with no balls
we have a LOT of agressive migrant, africans (1/4 pop and 1/3 new borns and soon 1/2 in 2025), muslims
what the “resistant” say/do on the other hand ?
some leave the country
many openly say : “I won’t fight for them/this country that reject me”
the few who actively resist spend their time arguing wether it’s better to be christian, nationalist, racist, anti-migrant, anti-sionist, or something else so that : they talk but do not unite and do nothing !
I speak for what happen now. I don’t know, maybe is one year everything will be different.
we already have bloody terrorisme and all that people do (collectively speaking) is puting flowers and teddy bears on the massacre places !
Christians ask muslism to come in their churches to pray together, etc…
NO ONE, absolutely no one call for action against criminals networks.
It’s madness !!!
So yes, I’m pessimistic … with good reasons.
I think in US, the land of the free, home of the brave, where you still have some real men there, you do not fully realise how much a pussy nation we have became.
I hope it can change, but for now, that’s how it is.
So yes we need a LOT MORE dangerous children. A lot 😉
To come back to the original subjet, I’m pretty sure we are not a stable nation at the moment :
our president is at 4% in the polls. 4% !
You often write of China taking over large portions of the eastern Russian empire. I wonder if it isn’t more likely that China will be one of the first countries to break apart.
These are not mutually exclusive possibilities. In fact, the further China expands, the more likely it will break apart into warring fiefdoms. Possible fiefdoms: Inside China — North, South, East, and West. In Russia the Far East, the North, the West toward the Urals. In Africa, perhaps 2 or 3 fiefdoms. In Latin America Venezuela becomes a natural centre of Chinese power, as would Ecuador and perhaps Peru.